Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[votato]

what do you want to hear from me? i dont remotely like that mav r2r and Vp are still alive over puppy. unless we are totally off-base here that kill makes no sense. At the same time, theres likely (definitely?) only one scum left, which means there cant be anything earth-shattering coming down the pipes. i think hellbooks still has to be today's lynch and then we can go from there. is there anyone else alive?

R2r, votato, mav, VP, hellbooks.

pretty sure thats it. so i think if we lynch hellbooks and then think really hard today about what tomorrow's lynch ought to be if she flips town then we should be golden. if it isnt hellbooks this gets way more complicated. but on the other hand, part of me thinks that the puppy kill forces us to lynch hellbooks today which means we arent looking at anyone else tomorrow. maybe im paranoid? but it seems like r2r or mav were the obvious candidates for a NK.

[mavsfan41]

@votato: I think the Quick kill instead of R2R is the one I’m most questioning. With Dunn and Puppy going at it yesterday, it makes sense that Puppy would be the kill. Or at least in my view. So I could see picking Puppy there. The Quick kill still doesn’t entirely make sense unless it was purely Dunn’s call and he was worried Quick would come after him.

With as hard as VP was going after hellbooks yesterday before jumping ship to hammer Dunn, I’m surprised he didn’t immediately vote hellbooks there.

[VP Baltar]

Votato is trickier, but Dunn pushed both him and Puppy. I could potentially see a scenario where Dunn lopped votato with Puppy for distance as their day 1 exchange would make it nearly impossible for them to be scum together, and Dunn would’ve known that.

This is my top priority for a review once I get off work today.

My initial instinct is still that hellbrooks makes the most logical sense here (basically what votato said). I think he and I are probably looking at each other equally skeptically. Our moves this game have been very similar and I'm worried he is duping me.

I also would have thought basically confirmed town r2r would have been the NK, but WIFOM and all that.

We can wait for night info if anyone has it, but thoughts on mass claim? I'm not seeing much downside at this point, but maybe I'm missing something.

Pedit: Hellbrooks and I were in the middle of a convo yesterday, Mavs, and I think it is probably fair for me to give her a chance to continue today. Much like yesterday, I don't see a need to rush a wagon. Yesterday proved that we can put the info out there and still make the right call. Had I rushed my vote yesterday, I can almost guarantee Dunn would have self hammered to end the day sooner, don't you think?

[mavsfan41]

@VP: I’m cool with a mass claim, not sure everyone else’s feelings. I’ve already claimed. I doubt Dunn would’ve self hammered. You couldn’t get squat out of him. People asked him questions and he ignored them to claim VT. I doubt he would’ve provided anything and likely would’ve resisted the self-hammer.

[VP Baltar]

Idk, I think the fact he was so resistant to answering or really saying anything shows he was probably trying to limit info and wanted the day to end as fast as possible. Granted, he had one chance to self hammer after you voted I believe, but he was already toast by that point since you were voting and I explicitly said immediately that I was good with him going. Seemed to me like he was holding out hope that being quiet might lead you to another decision with your vote since I think you and hellbrooks were in more of a swing position.

[mavsfan41]

@VP: your final post of yesterday was very accusatory in nature about your feelings of hellbooks. Her only two votes were one on me. And the other on Puppy. She’s only voted twice. I’m not sure what her reads are. She was very cautious when it came to Dunn. (Sure I was too but I came around.) And this right here even avoids giving a stance on Dunn:

R2R feels stagnant and had a bad switch onto midway and it feels like he's coasting and letting lynches just happen + I really do think D1 hard busses are fully plausible and they happen not infrequently.

VP Baltar seems to me to be setting up to lay down a Dunn vote but wants to be more careful about it plus it feels like he's letting the quick hammer argument (which I don't find compelling at all) completely redirect him from his gameview yesterday which seemed to be that me and midway were the scummiest people (and now there's not a mention of me) + has not really posted anything to escape my POE pool for a full day phase

Puppy and votato are a tier above those two; Puppy's play was good yesterday but it's definitely plausible for scum to pull out some effortful play in response to pressure, votato I wrote off yesterday bc of his reaction to mavs claim had me thinking he had claimed PR, the bussing comment is hella weird but probably has very slight town vibes

She had voted me and had several posts why I’m scummy then after my claim accepted it. All players would be accounted for except Dunn.

VOTE: hellbooks

Gimme something hellbooks. Who do you think is scum and why? Any guesses on why R2R is still alive?

[votato]

Votato is trickier, but Dunn pushed both him and Puppy. I could potentially see a scenario where Dunn lopped votato with Puppy for distance as their day 1 exchange would make it nearly impossible for them to be scum together, and Dunn would’ve known that.

This is my top priority for a review once I get off work today.

My initial instinct is still that hellbrooks makes the most logical sense here (basically what votato said). I think he and I are probably looking at each other equally skeptically. Our moves this game have been very similar and I'm worried he is duping me.

I also would have thought basically confirmed town r2r would have been the NK, but WIFOM and all that.

We can wait for night info if anyone has it, but thoughts on mass claim? I'm not seeing much downside at this point, but maybe I'm missing something.

Pedit: Hellbrooks and I were in the middle of a convo yesterday, Mavs, and I think it is probably fair for me to give her a chance to continue today. Much like yesterday, I don't see a need to rush a wagon. Yesterday proved that we can put the info out there and still make the right call. Had I rushed my vote yesterday, I can almost guarantee Dunn would have self hammered to end the day sooner, don't you think?

have we had similar positions? i feel like the reason I've kept my FoS on you all game long is that you always seem to have the opposite take from me, or when we do the same things its for opposing reasons. the obvious solve here is hellbooks. and i think itll take a major revelation for the lynch to land anywhere else today. but at the same time, hellbooks is a bit too easy. i need to go re-read and think about some stuff.

[mavsfan41]

@votato: yep, that’s why I’ve had the votato pendulum all game. I’m pretty sure you’re basically cleared on Dunn’s push of both you and Puppy. But I will say, idk why he’d claim you’re scum together. Doesn’t make sense. So I could see the push on puppy as a legit attempt at a mislynch and grouping you there as a distancing ploy. Not to WIFOM this too much, but I do see where you’re coming from in how hellbooks would be a player scum obviously leaves around cause she’s mislynch bait. But this is also why I think it’s hard to win as scum especially late game. There’s too much established in the previous 4 days that process of elimination based on interactions makes it hard for scum to achieve so many mislynches without clearing several players in the process off failed mislynch attempts. As far as I’m concerned, hellbooks’s contribution to the game hasn’t been all that much and I think her play as scum is letting town eat itself.

[VP Baltar]

Isn't that basically the argument I made yesterday Mavs and you told me that hellbrooks was an easy target?

[mavsfan41]

Isn't that basically the argument I made yesterday Mavs and you told me that hellbrooks was an easy target?

Sure. But I also said yesterday after coming around on Dunn how his only partner would be hellbooks in 2228 so with the flip of Dunn, hellbooks I think is the next logical progression.

[ready2rock]

fwiw I do think puppy was pretty confirmed town just based on the fact that they were basically the sole reason for Dunn coming under any suspicion at all. He was basically cleared town by pretty much everyone (including myself) before puppy started making a case

Interested to hear from hellbooks, particularly how the Dunn flip alters her potential scum

Also since I haven't played a non-open setup in a while, is there any possibility that there are 4 scum and we're in lylo? Or am I getting too worried and that's out of the question?

[ready2rock]

We can't let you go unpunished for lolhammers. We also get at least as much info from your lynch as from Puppy's

I have to say, this latest "fight" between votato and Dunn feels very performative. First, are people seriously talking about killing puppy today? I don't think so. Second, I don't think the Dunn lynch has anything to do with gaining information. This smacks of distancing for me if the team is votato/Dunn.

In looking at D4 again I might actually agree with this take. VP is also on my radar, but the way he worked to let the day play out felt very town to me. Feel like scum would look to get the inevitable wrapped up as quickly as possible (which is another reason I'm starting to suspect votato)

[ready2rock]

Looking at my D3 notes it's worth noting that votato was also pushing midway super hard from the start. Maybe knew he'd be an easy mislynch candidate? Then ends the day by defending the dunn hammer

Still early in the day so no vote yet, but my top scumread might be shifting to votato here

[mavsfan41]

@R2R: how do you feel about these?

Assuming Gamma is scum I'd guess Votato for partner. They've tried to get 3 other wagons off the ground (r2r, midway, blair), and he also threw some shade at me pre-gamma vote just based off of my hammer. Post 1166 is scummy

I'd scumread Votato even if Gamma is town, actually

I read these as setting up a mislynch (which then Dunn does pursue) in day 3. Dunn also has another post suggesting I’m partnered with Gamma if Gamma were to flip scum (post 1183). Dunn does not go as far as to say that I’m scum even if Gamma flips town. So he does go the extra step here with votato, but I read his post of both votato and me in preparation for a Gamma scum flip as legit setting up a future mislynch. He seemed at that point trying to piggyback off Puppy’s case against votato. Then he basically started the Puppy wagon again presumably piggybacking off my Puppy bloodlust.

So I would say your suspicions are noted but I’m kinda cautious against a lynch of votato with Dunn’s flip.

[ready2rock]

I do see what you're saying, though I will point out that votato was never really in any danger of getting lynched that day, so it seems like it could potentially be a safe bus.

On the other hand, it does seem awful risky to go from bussing your partner straight to hard tunneling your other partner D3

[ready2rock]

Also since I haven't played a non-open setup in a while, is there any possibility that there are 4 scum and we're in lylo? Or am I getting too worried and that's out of the question?

Still would like this answered by someone

[mavsfan41]

@R2R: my guess is no due to the lack of town PRs.

[ready2rock]

WIFOM ahoy, but puppy was scumreading mavs and votato as most likely partners, and was one of the few people not scumreading hellbooks.

Don't want it to sway my opinions on the first two all that much, but I do think it's possible that scum are trying to set up a mislynch of hellbooks today

[votato]

yeah i'd be very surprised here to see more than 3 scum. Also i stand by the push on midway. if you can point me to any game solving content or really any content from him, ill apologize to him for the mislynch.

r2r, if that theory is correct, who would you say is most likely scum? still me?

[ready2rock]

yeah i'd be very surprised here to see more than 3 scum. Also i stand by the push on midway. if you can point me to any game solving content or really any content from him, ill apologize to him for the mislynch.

r2r, if that theory is correct, who would you say is most likely scum? still me?

I'm really uncertain at this point tbh

Also agreed about midway's low amount of content and reads, but that's what makes him such an easy mislynch target for scum, and I'm still kind of frustrated at myself for buying into it.

[votato]

yes, it was unfortunate that he flipped town. but i think i'd lynch him again knowing what we know now. we didn't want him around for lylo, and there was a really good chance that he'd flip scum based on meta and based on content. i guess i was too hard on him, but even after i prodded him and tried to get him to contribute, he was unable to. maybe it would be helpful to look at people's reasoning for hopping on the midway wagon. i feel that some VCA would be helpful at this stage.

btw im also ok with a mass-claim.

[ready2rock]

@VP: I’m not quite sure I buy the WIFOM theory about hellbooks. I get why people do read her as scummy. But she was mentioned as scummy and a potential lynch. So I can’t see how scum!hellbooks takes her vote off at L-1 and gauges interest in an R2R lynch (a lynch that would be a much harder lynch as R2R sat at 0 votes).With her removing her vote, scum!hellbooks made it harder to get a presumed mislynch knowing very well she might be today’s lynch. I still think despite her scumminess, I can’t see that action coming from scum in that scenario.

It's a fair point. I just feel like despite running lots of folks up today, we haven't been too unified on a decision. Put another way, what were the odds of any given L-1 happening? But you make a solid point on what the standard scum play would be there.

Appreciate Quick being good people, regardless of alignment. You have my vote.

UNVOTE: hellbrooks
VOTE: midway

Midway definitely hasn't been scumhunting this game, and the several "I'm cleared town!" posts could be bad town play or just a scum gambit to plant disinformation. Mostly, I think we need to start coalescing wagons here and I'm not down for offing Puppy. I don't get the sense people are super into a hellbrooks wagon, even though I think there is a reasonable case there (at least as reasonable as midway). Plus side is that I think it's very possible for midway to have bussed Gamma. Plus, if midway flips red, that makes Quick look much better. Downside is that getting rid of midway doesn't clear up anything on that NPOM wagon the first day.

Biggest pitch I have for hellbooks over midway is that I think the former would give us a bit more information, since I don't think midway's posts are as substantial.

Plus, y'know, I think hellbooks is more likely to be scum

I'd be OK with midway though

Here's the votes on midway from VP and myself.

do we? i think it's the only thing he's done that looks town, though it could just have been an accident. try to bus your partner and distance without knowing there's a cop with a guilty on him. i think overall it's null-town

Well maybe we have similar opinions then. I thought you were saying it wasn't really town. It certainly could be bussing, but it's enough of a protown move I'm not inclined to say that's the best case today.

And I also came across VP defending Dunn as puppy starts to try and build a case on him near the end of D3

[ready2rock]

Also what are people's thoughts on mavs? Is there good reason reason (apart from NK WIFOM stuff) to think that it's possible for mavs to be scum?

[votato]

Mav's claim still really doesnt sit right with me. I dont see how you could have that role and not immediately realize you're an investigative role of sorts. its also very convenient that the only people who can confirm or disconfirm it are scum. i think the good news here is that the scumpool is really only down to three people, among whom one stands out significantly.

hellbooks, you are today's inevitable lynch. if you're scum, could you do us a favor and just tell us so we can end the game? if you're town, it would be great to get some proper contribution from you today so we are well-prepared for lylo tomorrow.

[ready2rock]

Someone needs to explain to me why scum!hellbooks would NK the ONLY person in the game that wasn't scumreading her