Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Pink Ball]

I don't think gobble is scum. I don't think he's town either. I think he's a pretty cool turkey tho

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: gobble

He almost certainly is scum.

[skitter30]

VOTE: ss

[skitter30]

There's really no way he's groupscum here, he's sk at best and i think he's just town

Ss why didnt you vote gobble earlier?

[Something_Smart]

Because I didn't want him to back out of the VT claim?

[Menalque]

Gobble you should post what your reads are even if you don’t have the big explanation done yet

[Menalque]

Datisi do you buy this?

[Menalque]

I actually started to sour on my take of Lilith scum while I was away but now that Blake’s calling it harder I’m not sure

[skitter30]

Because I didn't want him to back out of the VT claim?

I meant during the first wagon or the one that prompted him to claim sk or voting him inmediately thereafter

Like why no and not at any point before the vt claim

[skitter30]

*now

[Something_Smart]

I meant during the first wagon or the one that prompted him to claim sk or voting him inmediately thereafter

Like why no and not at any point before the vt claim

Because I thought he was an SK before, and now I think he's groupscum.

[Pink Ball]

skitter is so scummy it hurts my tummy

[skitter30]

Gobble doesnt make sense as groupscum tho ... he got run up twice and the game magically freezes when he claims sk ?
And you're pushing him now ?

Pb you're going to have to elaborate

[Menalque]

VOTE: gobbles

[Something_Smart]

Gobble doesnt make sense as groupscum tho ... he got run up twice and the game magically freezes when he claims sk ?

So scum can't be run up?

[Menalque]

I don’t believe the turkey is town. Idk if he’s the SK who’s trying to wrangle his way back in or if he’s groupscum who was caught and decided to gambit it, but either way I don’t think he’s town and I’m not really interested in dealing with the WIFOM around it if he lives. There are other people who I’d be interested in lynching and who I’ve toyed with the idea of lynching but with the latest shenanigans taking place there’s really not much that’s going to sway me on lynching the bird today.

I’m happy to wait for him to give reads and let us know where his head’s at in case this is a town gambit gone horribly, horribly wrong, but yeah, I just don’t wanna deal with it.

[skitter30]

It's the wrong time to be voting him if you actually think he's scum.
The gamestate doesnt support groupscum!gobble, and what's he even trying to do here as scum ... claiming sk seems like a pretty dumb move as groupscum

[Menalque]

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s much more likely that he’s SK who’s now recanting because that’s his wincon. I’m just not ruling out the possibility that he’s groupscum. Could be that the game stalled because scum didn’t really know how to defend him and because one or more scum were bussing on the original wagon. But yeah, I think it’s much more likely he’s the SK trying to walk it back

[Menalque]

Have I missed my chance to talk with the lovely Blake

[Menalque]

Who I believe has unanswered questions from me to attend to

[skitter30]

I think ss voting gobble now, after defending him when he originally claimed sk, is scummy

[Menalque]

@blake would you vote turkey?

@blake, could you give explanations for the 4 reads you have earlier?

The first one is still relevant now I think, but the second is the one I’m more interested in

[Menalque]

I think ss voting gobble now, after defending him when he originally claimed sk, is scummy

I don’t remember SS defending him tbf, what did he say?

[Menalque]

Also @blake what caused your María read to drop in strength?

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

+1, we still lynch gobbles today

I respect him trying to make a deal, but fundamentally he doesn’t have a town wincon and right now he’s in the weakest negotiating position.

He's in the weakest negotiating position... which means he's not a threat, right?

Since we can unilaterally make him lose, he has to do what we say; even though he says he won't be leashed, if a majority agrees to leash him, he'll have to follow or be lynched. That said, straight-up leashing is a bad idea because bus driver, but it seems perfectly fine to tell him to kill someone scummy and if he doesn't (or if you want to be harsh, if he doesn't hit scum) then we lynch him.

No, then we’re weaker because we’re getting further away from outnumbering the scum and he gets to coast another day because people want to try and flip their scumreads.

This sounds like empty rhetoric to me.

You're talking about him surviving another day as if it's automatically a bad thing. Is it? If we compare lynching him tomorrow to lynching him today, the only difference is that an extra player dies overnight. If that player is > rand scum, then it's good; otherwise, it's bad.

Then, if he killed scum, we can leave him alive one more day to put us back on odds without worrying about losing majority. If he killed town, we might have to lynch him-- and this gives him a powerful incentive to play along and try to hit his strongest scumread.

If you assume that his reads are better than random, there is at the very least a reasonable argument for leaving him alive.

if he thinks you'll shoot town he gets another person closer to lylo without having to do anything

And anyone who wants to lynch him might be scum who thinks he'll shoot scum or take out a future mislynch. What's your point?

There is NO INCENTIVE for the turkey to kill scum because that LITERALLY is playing against his wincon

Like in the world where we mislynch every day and the turkey saves us by shooting 3 scum in a row — what does he think happens, we go “yeah, thanks turkey, we just won’t lynch you so that you can win bc you were so helpful to town” lmao

Saying "there is no incentive to kill three scum" is not the same as saying "there is no incentive to kill one scum."

He has a very real incentive to kill one scum-- we lynch him if he doesn't. Whatever minuscule chance he has to win, it comes from doing whatever we tell him so he doesn't get autolynched.

His progression on gobble doesnt make sense and i dont get why he's voting him now