Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 5.3

votato

(2): mavsfan41, VP Baltar

VP Baltar

(1): votato

Not Voting

(2): ready2rock, hellbooks

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-06-20 16:11:00)

[votato]

ok well tomorrow you should lynch VP.

[votato]

gl, hf

[ready2rock]

Intent to hammer

Votato if you have a more detailed case on VP or a detailed defense of the points raised against you thus far today, I'd suggest you give it soon.

Hellbooks if you're opposed to a votato lynch and want to play out the day a bit longer feel free to say so

I'll give about 12 hours or so

[ready2rock]

Rereading VP's iso, didn't see a ton, but came across one or two things

Like, I didn't even fully catch up. That r2r goof is 100% scum.

Ah the good old days lol

@gamma - if you think r2r had bad reasons for jumping on the NPOM wagon, what is your assessment of Dunn?

Doesn't feel like something scum would bring to people's attention, seems like that'd be an unforced error

The hesitation to buy the mavs case and pushing people to unvote also feels fairly town

I'll say again that I think the progression of his feelings on dunn throughout the day felt a lot more natural than votato's, though still could be a transition to a bus

@VP: Can you talk me through your thought process of your vote after my first claim? You seemed to be leaning town on both a lot this game, but votato slightly scummier, so what was your first instinct between the two of them and why did you settle on voting mavs at first?

[ready2rock]

@R2R: I claimed in Day 3 and yet you didn’t track me. I figured N3, the tracker was easily going to be on me, really surprised. So I’m guessing you do believe my claim if you didn’t even bother tracking me.

Wanted to circle back to this because I just remembered (it's been like 2 weeks irl I forget things sometimes)

I think another reason I decided not to track you (other than being more suspicious of hellbooks at the time) is because I thought most likely scenario of scum faking this claim was to give an excuse for a scum PR to be visiting someone other than the NK (roleblocker, rolecop, etc), so I was thinking that even if you were found visiting someone other than the NK, it wouldn't actually clear you, so it wouldn't actually tell me all that much.

[votato]

Theres plenty of time. If you want me to use it you have to give some to me. I'll be out for a few hours

[votato]

who will you all lynch tomorrow?

[VP Baltar]

@VP: Can you talk me through your thought process of your vote after my first claim? You seemed to be leaning town on both a lot this game, but votato slightly scummier, so what was your first instinct between the two of them and why did you settle on voting mavs at first?

Sure. You're correct to say that I've had both mavs and votato pretty firmly in my town column for awhile now. Mavs got there primarily through his claim. I've found his scumhunting weaker, but there generally seemed to be effort there and the claim seemed too elaborate to fake to me. Votato I felt like was doing more to pressure players, albeit flippantly and with lacking explanation at times. His votes also closely matched my own when it counted, so for me that made sense to be coming from town.

After your initial claim, I was watching to see if scum would flail a bit under pressure. Afterall, your claim essentially clears two townies -- an amazingly bad turn of events for scum this late in the game. Right after the claim, mavs made a very badly reasoned -- in my view -- case on me that could have just as easily have applied to votato if you're looking at the actual context of the votes. It seemed like a surface level case scum likes to make where you cherry pick details to smear someone. Additionally, I had serious doubts about three town investigative roles in a setup where the only scum power we have seen appears to be a red herring.

I still think both of the above are true, but the more I talked to mavs and he responded to players, the more it seemed like he was being genuine. And his claim remains elaborate, which was something I felt like I couldn't just ignore.

[hellbooks]

@hellbooks: I don't know about better record, as you puppy and midway were scumreads for me for quite a bit of this game. Do I understand your ranking to be mavs, then votato, then VP from scummiest to not?

i guess it's less about the amount of evidence i have but what evidence i find unassailable. as to that i'm still trying to figure that out but I'd say yeah. mavs, then votato and VP are really close but i think you've got it. Like, I think VP has pretty good Dunn partner equity and I think votato has pretty low Dunn partner equity but aside from that VP is simply making townier posts.

Dunn clearly had a play for claiming that mavs has admitted would've been better. If that's the case, why didn't Dunn discuss and advise this with mavs in the thread?
If the scumteam thought there was some kind of fruit checker in the game, as mavs clearly did, why did he pin fruit on his scumbuddy that he thought was clear?

yeah this is definitely a hard sell. I was also thinking this-- just doesn't seem like scum theater

yeah exactly. mav kinda has to be town.

this is not a winning play for scum to make. scum need to push through two MLs
So... i think votato is towniest ?????

[hellbooks]

This is absolutely silly. I can't imagine a scenario where I as town would ever say "give me this one today, and then if it's wrong we can just lynch townie ol' me tomorrow in Lylo". Like, what?

agree and I think in LYLO situations scum tends to say this more often than town actually. But -- again, if votato is scum, it's just weird AF to be absolutely fully locked into only one of the two choices when you need to be MLing both

Hellbooks if you're opposed to a votato lynch and want to play out the day a bit longer feel free to say so

i'd say i'm not opposed

[ready2rock]

Theres plenty of time. If you want me to use it you have to give some to me. I'll be out for a few hours

I am giving you more time, but you have also had almost 2 days now to respond to the case made against you or to make a stronger case against someone else and you have simply chosen not to do so.

You've been asked questions and you've either ignored them or said you'll address them later, then ignored them, so I'm less sympathetic at the moment

yeah exactly. mav kinda has to be town.

this is not a winning play for scum to make. scum need to push through two MLs
So... i think votato is towniest ?????

I think it's possible for this to be scum flailing, but yes this is one of the first things in a while that would be slightly more likely to come from town than scum. But also he's been not buying mavs claim all game (enough to vote him over VP who he was "actually" scumreading), I make one post about it and now he buys it completely?

And who we lynch tomorrow is not really up to me, but I'll post my thoughts before the day ends anyways

[ready2rock]

Votato, if you've been townreading mavs all game, can you explain why you suddenly were the one who put an intent to hammer on him, and then refused to claim when asked if you were just VT? Also can you address the other questions/cases that have been posted that you promised you'd answer and then haven't?

Also votato putting "been scumreading someone all game" and "been townreading them all game, but the role feels a bit off to me" as 50/50 feels super scummy to me. Not only that, but his first instinct after my claim is to vote the townread???

@hellbooks: I don't know about better record, as you puppy and midway were scumreads for me for quite a bit of this game. Do I understand your ranking to be mavs, then votato, then VP from scummiest to not?

@mavs: Thoughts on VP at this point?

all my day 2 reads were really skewed because people had strange progressions stemming from nigh action results. and yeah, i've kinda waffled over the days. but if you look at my scum meta (see micro 938: butterfly mafia in particular, you could look at animals upick but i dunno how much youd learn), i dont really waffle or re-evaluate. i might take my time deciding where to push, but then i push it and stick to my guns. why is it scummy to reconsider?

Take this for example, where I ask specifically about the intent to hammer on mavs and why you did it, and also bring up your vote switching to mavs after you scumread VP and townread mavs

And your response is "but meta"

And this is the closest you've come to actually addressing points made against you

[votato]

what havent i addressed? im here to make the posties, but i was thinking i just needed to catch scum, not explain why im not scum...

[ready2rock]

I literally just pointed out something you haven't addressed properly in the last post, but give me a second and I'll compile them together for you

[votato]

Votato, if you've been townreading mavs all game, can you explain why you suddenly were the one who put an intent to hammer on him, and then refused to claim when asked if you were just VT? Also can you address the other questions/cases that have been posted that you promised you'd answer and then haven't?

Also votato putting "been scumreading someone all game" and "been townreading them all game, but the role feels a bit off to me" as 50/50 feels super scummy to me. Not only that, but his first instinct after my claim is to vote the townread???

@hellbooks: I don't know about better record, as you puppy and midway were scumreads for me for quite a bit of this game. Do I understand your ranking to be mavs, then votato, then VP from scummiest to not?

@mavs: Thoughts on VP at this point?

all my day 2 reads were really skewed because people had strange progressions stemming from nigh action results. and yeah, i've kinda waffled over the days. but if you look at my scum meta (see micro 938: butterfly mafia in particular, you could look at animals upick but i dunno how much youd learn), i dont really waffle or re-evaluate. i might take my time deciding where to push, but then i push it and stick to my guns. why is it scummy to reconsider?

Take this for example, where I ask specifically about the intent to hammer on mavs and why you did it, and also bring up your vote switching to mavs after you scumread VP and townread mavs

And your response is "but meta"

And this is the closest you've come to actually addressing points made against you

mavs has had townie posts. but i dont like the claim. as a result, ive been really unsure about how to evaluate the slot. here in this situation, its basically a lylo for me, but where there are two extra people to gamesolve. its not a huge deal if i die, and i feel like im the least experienced person in this game with the least of a grasp on it (although i suppose townies who think im scum dont have much of a grasp either).... but i also feel like i have been kinda scummy this game. ive been on the wrong side of things a couple times, and dont really trust myself now. I think its VP. I should have re-read the thread more before voting mav i suppose. that vote was gut. but actually i have a pretty good gut feel for things. im not sure. if we lynch someone else today who flips town, tomorrow ill have the benefit of hindsight and ill be able to lay out why the remaining person is scum. but right now im thinking in circles and stuck in wifom quicksand.

[ready2rock]

votato, I'd like you to explain in detail your transition in thought on mavs. You've been bagging on him since his claim about how you don't believe it, so I'd like to hear specifics on this transition. What specifically led you to this benefit of the doubt? I'd also like you to address the questions I raise about the setup and what you see as the balance in that setup.

This never got answered

And if you think that's a weak and unfair argument (which it is probably a bit nitpicky), there's this speculation later:

assume for a minute dunn is scum. His buddy probably wants to be on a counterwagon, but they probably dont want to be on the same wagon because it looks like dunn is the lynch. that means scum dunn probably means scum VP, yes? im still thinking the likely scumpairs are [dunn, vp] or [hellbooks, puppy], and im not sure where i would put mav in that mix. hellbooks and mav: why arent you voting at all? dunn, why are you on a vanity wagon? r2r, why books over dunn?

And yet when dunn flips scum and puppy is killed, it still logically makes the most sense for hellbooks lynch to be "inevitable" by your logic and to throw out the window this scumread on VP that you've supposedly always had? Doesn't feel at all natural.

To put this in the format of a question, it seems like you thought that if Dunn flips scum then VP is the most likely partner, AND if puppy is scum then hellbooks is the most likely partner. You say this twice at the end of day 4

And yet, when a) dunn flips scum and b) puppy flips town, then hellbooks is suddenly the inevitable lynch no matter what? What changed in your reads here? Because it feels like it's pushing for the easy mislynch and doesn't follow from your actual thought process the previous day

On top of that:

Votato, if you've been townreading mavs all game, can you explain why you suddenly were the one who put an intent to hammer on him, and then refused to claim when asked if you were just VT? Also can you address the other questions/cases that have been posted that you promised you'd answer and then haven't?

Also votato putting "been scumreading someone all game" and "been townreading them all game, but the role feels a bit off to me" as 50/50 feels super scummy to me. Not only that, but his first instinct after my claim is to vote the townread???

I still want these two points answered as well
-Why intent to hammer mavs if you read him as town? It again did not follow from your read on mavs up to that point and looks like trying to wrap up the day
-This is the same question I asked VP, except I'm even more puzzled by your reasoning, because after I claimed you STILL insisted on not voting VP (who you both had said you scumread AND thought was a good partner for Dunn) and voted mavs instead. Help me understand your thought process here

Pedit: I see you're responding but will still post this so that everything's in one place as promised

[ready2rock]

While you're doing that, some thoughts on mavs vs VP

I think whether you think mavs or VP is scum would be down to whether you think mavs had played a sloppy scum game or whether VP has played a fairly clean scum game

mavs claim is easy to fake and possible that he's scum, but I've outlined why I'm inclined to believe the claim because there's too many things that don't make sense if he's making it up. Scummiest thing mavs has done is his progression day 2, but has felt a better more recently

VP has earned quite a bit of town cred over time, almost to a LAMIST degree at times. I'd say the biggest points against him are the ways that he was hard pressuring people on day 1 (which I pointed out and voted him for at the time), and the way that he's following the train of votes and putting people at L-1 today (though his reasoning has been sound and logically consistent)

If you had to make me choose between the two right now I'd probably say VP, but I've been going back and forth constantly throughout the day

I'm feeling pretty confident about votato, but I'll give him one more chance to address the points I just posted

[votato]

votato, I'd like you to explain in detail your transition in thought on mavs. You've been bagging on him since his claim about how you don't believe it, so I'd like to hear specifics on this transition. What specifically led you to this benefit of the doubt? I'd also like you to address the questions I raise about the setup and what you see as the balance in that setup.

This never got answered

And if you think that's a weak and unfair argument (which it is probably a bit nitpicky), there's this speculation later:

assume for a minute dunn is scum. His buddy probably wants to be on a counterwagon, but they probably dont want to be on the same wagon because it looks like dunn is the lynch. that means scum dunn probably means scum VP, yes? im still thinking the likely scumpairs are [dunn, vp] or [hellbooks, puppy], and im not sure where i would put mav in that mix. hellbooks and mav: why arent you voting at all? dunn, why are you on a vanity wagon? r2r, why books over dunn?

And yet when dunn flips scum and puppy is killed, it still logically makes the most sense for hellbooks lynch to be "inevitable" by your logic and to throw out the window this scumread on VP that you've supposedly always had? Doesn't feel at all natural.

To put this in the format of a question, it seems like you thought that if Dunn flips scum then VP is the most likely partner, AND if puppy is scum then hellbooks is the most likely partner. You say this twice at the end of day 4

And yet, when a) dunn flips scum and b) puppy flips town, then hellbooks is suddenly the inevitable lynch no matter what? What changed in your reads here? Because it feels like it's pushing for the easy mislynch and doesn't follow from your actual thought process the previous day

On top of that:

Votato, if you've been townreading mavs all game, can you explain why you suddenly were the one who put an intent to hammer on him, and then refused to claim when asked if you were just VT? Also can you address the other questions/cases that have been posted that you promised you'd answer and then haven't?

Also votato putting "been scumreading someone all game" and "been townreading them all game, but the role feels a bit off to me" as 50/50 feels super scummy to me. Not only that, but his first instinct after my claim is to vote the townread???

I still want these two points answered as well
-Why intent to hammer mavs if you read him as town? It again did not follow from your read on mavs up to that point and looks like trying to wrap up the day
-This is the same question I asked VP, except I'm even more puzzled by your reasoning, because after I claimed you STILL insisted on not voting VP (who you both had said you scumread AND thought was a good partner for Dunn) and voted mavs instead. Help me understand your thought process here

Pedit: I see you're responding but will still post this so that everything's in one place as promised

im afraid you will largely be disappointed by my answers. the decision about mav's claim is gut, and is subject to change depending on the content of said gut. as for setup spec, im really not sure. i'd say that if i were scum with two strongmen (maybe three?) my instinct wouldnt be to fake claim fruit vendor. it does not fit. id also say that three investigative could work with four goons, although the deception of calling them strongmen and having four of them doesnt make sense. my guess would be that the third scum is a ninja or some other PR that is actually useful and potentially nullifies a town PR.

as for the second question... you're right. all i can say is that as scum im much more deliberate and wouldnt make such an obvious error.

intent to hammer on mavs: i keep waffling on the claim. but like i said, all my day 2 reads were really skewed because i picked up on people acting weird, but attributed it to them being scum rather than PRs with guilties.

the main thing i have going for me i think is that for me to be scum here, id have to be playing some serious 4-d chess with a lot of cheek. look at my completed games, and youll see that i dont have that in me. i do appreciate your confidence in me that you think i could pull off all this as scum.

i think thats everything

[ready2rock]

Any case/points to consider for VP that you haven't brought up already that you want to make sure are put out there?

We're basically in twilight as far as I'm concerned unless you've somehow swayed mavs or VP. I do agree that VP is a bit more likely like I brought up earlier, but it's you>>>>>VP>mavs for me

[VP Baltar]

the main thing i have going for me i think is that for me to be scum here, id have to be playing some serious 4-d chess with a lot of cheek. look at my completed games, and youll see that i dont have that in me. i do appreciate your confidence in me that you think i could pull off all this as scum.

I mean, saying you are aware of your scum meta means you could play against it. I don't think the game you've played so far would be that difficult as scum, and making jokes about being scum is definitely something I've seen people do before.

I still think votato is the right choice today.

[votato]

i think i've said what i came here to say. sorry for getting lynched. i vote for VP tomorrow.

[votato]

dont listen to anything vp says tomorrow either. just vote. listening to VP is what got you into trouble today. we have been sheeping VP all game and its gotten us nowhere. VP was deflecting from scum lynches and pushing town lynches. all game.

[hellbooks]

i think i intend on voting VP tomorrow

[ready2rock]

Yeah like I said VP's been putting each of you at L-1 today and it's not a good look, and I really think it's him between VP and mavs. My only hesitation is the way you're tunneling right now (how would you transition from this onto somehow pushing someone else tomorrow?) but there are too many scummy and logically inconsistent things you've done the rest of this game for me that I'm relatively confident

VOTE: votato

Here's hoping I'm right and we can end this game

Since I probably won't get any more posts before the game's over, this has been a really interesting game and y'all have been great to play with!