Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Menalque]

Actually I think this is better and that trying to shift the lynch onto pb here would just be ego

VOTE: S_S

L-2

[Menalque]

I meant during the first wagon or the one that prompted him to claim sk or voting him inmediately thereafter

Like why no and not at any point before the vt claim

Because I thought he was an SK before, and now I think he's groupscum.

The more I think about it the less I think this thought process actually makes sense. I think I agree with the monkey even if I’m not putting exact numbers on it, in that gobbles is overwhelmingly likely to be VT or SK. (If he’s SK then okay, we lose a day at some point dealing with him but at least we know where the SK is, or he has to no-kill to keep acting like he’s VT.) I think Smart would get there too if he were town, whereas I actually think soft-defending gobbles is a fairly safe play followed by trying to lynch him upon retraction being a pretty safe thing to push. I’ve felt super conflicted about whether we should lynch that and honestly I think that’s the town way to feel when you’re trying to actually assess if gobbles is gambiting or not, whereas if you’re scum it’s a free excuse to push that maybe removes someone who could shoot scum.

I also think (pb/fb) is likely to have a scum in it, and then somewhere in (skitt/Blake/Maria/dats/lil) is the other. It’s possible (fb/pb) is the whole thing IF smart is scum, but if he’s town then I think there’s very likely scum in those 5 names? But I also think smart is p good as the lynch because people have taken clear stances on him and because he’s a clear CW to gobbles, both of which should hopefully help in solving the game later

[Menalque]

oog: gobbles I really hope you’re okay, take care of yourself!

[Almost50]

You know what? call me a fool, call me naive, but I think I'm leaning on buying Turkey goofed up once more that believing him as group scum. It's like 50% VT, 45% SK, and 5% Mafia for me.

What do you think of the S_S wagon then?

I am probably warming up to join it, but I need a VC.

See, my lynch pool is in S_S/Maria/Datisi/FB. Everyone else I TR to some extent (as I said I won't be doing a full readlist, so you may take wild guesses on how the TRs are ordered for now). I have been leaning Scum on S_S from the start (I don't remember the exact post(s), but I got the impression he was trying to manipulate something), and then the SR was still intact when I looked at certain VC counts (that made sense for the team to be in this lynch pool) and he was mainly not voting in all 3 of them (the scum that stays off wagons while his partners fish for the desired mislynch that would stick), and then came his sudden rush to lynch the Turkey when he had not wanted to earlier (also not wanting to lynch the SK could come from scum as I've explained in my response to... erm.. PB?? Either him or lillith) as it would from town (skitter wanting to leash him makes sense from town too). I mean, wanting to lynch/save the SK both could come from Town/Scum, but it's odd for town to not want to lynch the SK and then want to lynch them when they retract the claim.

All in all, I think S_S is a fine lynch.

On another note: LET NO ONE FORGET THAT I AM NOT THE HIDER, BUT IF I WAS I'D BE HIDING BEHIND MARIA.

[Almost50]

Also does the retraction have any impact on your take on Lilith?

I don't see the link between the two.

[Almost50]

I may very well be an idiot but I think the monkey is town

Why not both???

Disclaimer: SORRY! It's just the way I pull my friends legs. Please don't be offended, for I certainly do not really think you're an idiot.

[Almost50]

So... I'm fully caught up now. I dunno if I should put S_S @L-1 before I log off and hit the hay though. My vote is on him in spirit, so I would request that he claims when he comes online and not have to wait for the formality of being actually @L-1

[Almost50]

Oh, yeah. It was 605 that first pinged me from S_S. Him calling it a low risk high reward strategy when I had thought the opposite (and so did Bingle) felt manipulative, as it is indeed a high risk low reward to have us all claim hypothetical targets as it it does out everyone who said they'd target scum and didn't die as scum. It also gives scum themselves the opportunity to lay the grounds for a fake claim in case there was no Hider in play. Like, they claim targeting each other, and once they know there is no Hider one of them fake claims Hider and clears the other. And now that Bingle has -once again- put my total ignorance of how NAR works under the microscope I can see that EVEN if said partner was somehow killed and flipped red it could be chalked on the Bus Driver having switched them with a townie. If the fake claimer is the one that flipped it's no hard guilty either, for they were faking. I dunno how S_S decided that was a plausible route to pursue.

[Almost50]

And these were the precise VCs I checked (I had copied them into my file so I'd have to re-ISO ofrhz if you needed links, but I think this will do and you can verify them yourself if you need to):

Bingle [4]: Menalque, PenguinPower, gobbledygook, Firebringer,
Menalque [3]: skitter30, Datisi, Bingle,
PenguinPower [3]: Blake Belladonna, lilith2013, MariaR,

Not Voting [3]: Something_Smart, Pink Ball, Chemist1422,
-------------------------------------
gobbledygook [5]: Bingle, Datisi, PenguinPower, Menalque, MariaR, [L-2]
Bingle [2]: Firebringer, gobbledygook,
PenguinPower [2]: Blake Belladonna, lilith2013,
MariaR [1]: skitter30,

Not Voting [3]: Something_Smart, Pink Ball, Chemist1422,
-------------------------------------
gobbledygook [4]: Bingle, Datisi, Menalque, Pink Ball,
MariaR [2]: gobbledygook, skitter30,
skitter30 [2]: Blake Belladonna, MariaR,
Something_Smart [1]: Firebringer,
PenguinPower [1]: lilith2013,
Menalque [1]: PenguinPower,

Not Voting [2]: Something_Smart, Chemist1422,

[Almost50]

And now I'm off for real. (Going to bed at 11:35 am is a blessing, don't you think?)

@Menalque: Once again I do sincerely apologize if my 2005 offended you in any way. If it did, just say so (even by PM or via the mod) and I will no longer try being funny in this manner with you.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'm fine with Something_Smart being lynched.

[Blake Belladonna]

In fact, here's a request from

EVERYBODY

: Could you please out your read on me.my slot before I start giving reads?

P.S. I am not even guaranteed to give a full readlist on D1. I think it best if I kept the details for myself and only outed what I think is beneficial to town at this point. Like, if I say I SR S_S it's a good thing for town because if he is Scum he gets checked and caught and if he is town scum are less likely to kill him on N1. I don't think S_S could be lynched on D1 as either alignment, so this one works fine and I have no problem stating it out loud now. Also, if I'm the Tracker that's certainly not where I will track, and if I'm the JK I am unlikely to block him (and that's how WIFOM works, because now S_S doesn't know whether to do the kill if he is scum or not, because he knows better than to believe anything I say)

Also outing my strongest TRs is bad in case I am a Doctor, so... no full readlist from me on D1.

I think you're out of your scumrange by now.

[Blake Belladonna]

Okay. I think I have some grasp of the game now.

Menalque is town.
Bingle is town.
Firebringer is town.

Datisi is likely town.
Chemist1422 is likely town. I suspect he'd have more presence or at least feel more pressure in some way if he was scum. For reference, I recently co-modded a game he was scum in.

I want to say Skitter30 is town, but I don't feel comfortable locking this in yet.
MariaR is a townlean, but this read is fragile.

Something_Smart is a wildcard.

PenguinPower is a slot I am not entirely sure on. My intuition says the way he's approaching the game is scum-motivated based on my view of the game, but it's hard to tell with him.

Pink Ball is likely scum.
Lilith2013 is scum.

Gobbledygook is

a claim SK.

likely town.

I think the odds that I'm more correct than not with these is better than random chance.

I will still be looking to refine this over future days.

[Datisi]

sup fuckers i'm back from the dead

I think Blake could be scum for the record but I think she’s done enough that I don’t wanna lynch her today and I think she’s probably being forced to bus if she is scum?

huh?

~

hi a50!!

~

my dudes i feel like there's not much content here

~

A50 is town! That was easy!

why is that?

~

datisi’s iso indicating he’s scumreading mena

Contextually I think the continued vote after their interactions implies a scumread, but Dats can clear that up when she gets back.

Why is everybody calling Datisi a she when "she has a he" as the pronoun choice??

P.S. This is important in case I decide to let AP into this. He would want to know who is available for his flirting and who is not.

idk if you remember, i used to go by she for a while and it stuck with some people and since i don't mind it and so don't bother correcting, you get confusing posts like the above

~

In fact, here's a request from

EVERYBODY

: Could you please out your read on me.my slot before I start giving reads?

gut town?

~

ok i am caught up in theory
i don't think i'd mind the S_S lynch toooo much since he's in my "confusing null pile" but i'm still not sure i buy the gobbles progression thing?

[PenguinPower]

In fact, here's a request from EVERYBODY: Could you please out your read on me.my slot before I start giving reads?

Town who I will inevitably be convinced to lynch in Lylo by Bingle despite my innocent result on you.

[PenguinPower]

Now if you still want to lynch his slot by the time I'm all caught up, I might as well be calling you "enguinower" from now on.

phew...good thing I changed my mind on your slot.

[Menalque]

@dats I don’t think Blake has inherently done anything that would make her town, but during my general D1 reconsidering of the game she was one of the people who floated back into my mind as “plausibly scum”. However, if she /is/ scum then I think it’s hard for her to claim high levels of confidence and to then pursue mislynches, hence, I think she’s quite likely forced to bus today if she is scum for the cred needed to try and endgame.

Which is a view supported by her being hard town on me and bingle, (I think also now on A50) and likely town on you and Maria (who I think are town that I could be wrong on it my other scumreads are wrong but who I’m not convinced make scum with Blake, although I suppose I should double check that because writing it down makes me realise I don’t have strong reasons to think that besides instincts).

[Datisi]

i thought i was one of your strongest townreads? anything change while i was gone?

[Menalque]

I think my understanding of the game was wrong and there was scum somewhere in my higher tiers, you were one of the people I’ve been reconsidering as while I did think that your interaction with me rung as emotionally honest I didn’t think your ISO was actually very towny and I guess maybe you could have faked the emotional component (or that it was real but just not actually anything to do with you being town or not)

[Menalque]

Bingle - town
A50
Datisi, maria
Blake
Skitter, lilith, PP - null
Gobbles
Fb, pure boi - scum
S_S

Roughly where I’m at now, but there’s a lot that’s dependent on flips that isn’t like fully captured by just giving a list

[Menalque]

You don’t actually seem that invested/interested in solving the game but I just dont know at the moment if that’s scum!indicative or just due to ~*life*~ atm

[Menalque]

So: gonna flip S_S, then hopefully flip in pure boi and fb and then if we have 2 scumflips look back at who’s still making sense with them, in an ideal world

[Blake Belladonna]

@dats I don’t think Blake has inherently done anything that would make her town, but during my general D1 reconsidering of the game she was one of the people who floated back into my mind as “plausibly scum”. However, if she /is/ scum then I think it’s hard for her to claim high levels of confidence and to then pursue mislynches, hence, I think she’s quite likely forced to bus today if she is scum for the cred needed to try and endgame.

Which is a view supported by her being hard town on me and bingle, (I think also now on A50) and likely town on you and Maria (who I think are town that I could be wrong on it my other scumreads are wrong but who I’m not convinced make scum with Blake, although I suppose I should double check that because writing it down makes me realise I don’t have strong reasons to think that besides instincts).

I'd like more detail on where this view came from. Confidence is mostly based on engagement rather than alignment.

[Blake Belladonna]

Specifically, while I'm commonly more confident on scumreads as town, it still only appears when I'm very engaged most of the time.

Confident townreads are not alignment indicative for me.

[Datisi]

You don’t actually seem that invested/interested in solving the game but I just dont know at the moment if that’s scum!indicative or just due to ~*life*~ atm

it's indicative of this game having a high noise percentage (at least to my understanding) and things going in circles without Actual Information (i.e. flips/legit claims)

not much in this game is Inspiring me to solve