Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[GuiltyLion]

Your initial qualm against the Innocent Child was her lack of specifying reasons. It seems she could've answered your question here in many ways as mafia, since there are plenty of reasonable posts to reference, yet we seem awfully happy to hand waive our previous suspicions now, don't we?

the thing that changed my mind was the posts she referenced of T-Bone's made sense as to why her thinking changed from "let's play optimal TTT" to "oh we still have to play mafia and aim for a TTT draw"

THAT SAID, now that I went back to that exchange I'm kinda wondering why she suggested that she thought we'd just play pure TTT with our lynches and not try to lynch/kill scumreads to begin with

[GuiltyLion]

I am tired and suddenly everyone feels town. I still think Dunnstral doesn't open the way he did as scum, and bits of maxwell's reads post felt honest, but I'm gonna sleep on this game and come back with fresh eyes tomorrow

[Dunnstral]

I put a lot of thought into the setup while I was waiting for the game to start and while I'll say more later, day 1 should be played for a long-term strategy. Getting strong townreads can basically win the game automatically. Still need to develop reads to get there, though so I'd rather see day 1 play out 'normally', I just ask that no one be put at L-1 because any quickhammer is severely damaging to the gamestate.

It's already way late here so I can't spend all night typing things up but I'll try to give some quick thoughts:

despite finding the reasoning in his last post somewhat odd, I actually like Clover as town here - his push on guiltylion feels genuine with the way he's investigating his stances rather than trying to push on something cheap.

I like that guiltylion actually bothered to investigate my activity, on first pass I thought he was town but on a reread didn't like his back and forth with clover as much. I'm tired so my thinking is not the best. Still shows more evidence of tying to be proactive than most.

If I could confidently townread Blair I'd declare the game to be won already, but I can't - the early excessive setup talk comes across as avoiding scumhunting, and felt like she hands out townreads too easily in #40 and #73.

Dunnstral has been fillery, devoid of content, with a rather awkward start. Don't see what other people are seeing in the townread there. I'll be reading Micro 639 to see if that's just his meta/if he's easy lynchbait, though.

T-Bone's opening was fillery/useless, lot of talk about the setup and past games. Do kind of like his empty vote on Dunn, though, becuase I didn't like his start either, but it does look off given he started the game similarly.

Kanna: really fillery start, plus a weak sheep of clover's vote on guiltylion while only committing to "I kind of agree" in #67. probably the scummiest of everyone who's posted.


Well, that took me too long and I'm not super happy with it, but I need to sleep.

Scummy post relating to me & T-bone

[Dunnstral]

I ammmm willing to reconsider Clover I think

not a fan of you casting me as a newbie tho I'll have you know I have played an

extensive

amount of games here over 5 years thank you

I haven't liked maxwell's posts so far

Who has played with GuiltyLion before? I have a question.

If GuiltyLion is scum, being perceived as a newbie when he is not is objectively an advantage - being underestimated where you are competent and overestimated where you are not is strategically ideal (insert vapid Tsun Zhu reference here).

GuiltyLion throws that advantage away here, ostensibly to defend his reputation as an experienced player.

Is GuiltyLion the kind of player who looks a gift horse in the mouth? I'm discounting all the WIFOM-fuel answers here in favor of either A.) he is not the sort of player who believes being underestimated is an advantage, or B.) he is that sort of player, but didn't mind tossing that advantage in the garbage here because he's town and doesn't care about that sort of thing.

(If the answer really is "C.) he knows it's an advantage but tossed it aside here for the even greater advantage of being townread by Blair for doing so" then please don't even answer - I don't need that kind of stress)

His join date is 2015... he wouldn't get away with pretending to be a newbie regardless, so he wouldn't try to do it

[Dunnstral]

If I'm being less reactionary Maxwell put up a blanket 'this person is fillery' read for everyone who wasn't talking about mechanics

I don't have any kind of read on Kanna yet

I think T-bone is scummy; I think Blair said they were town because they were talking about mechanics early? I don't buy into that, I don't see a reason for mafia to avoid talking about mechanics - I do it all the time as mafia, actually

[Dunnstral]

Also don't reference micro 639 @maxwell, that game was 4 years ago - the only similarity is that it's the same setup as this one. I pushed to lynch the ic to establish board dominance in that game, I don't agree with that anymore

[Celeste]

B-tier: Clover Ebi
C-tier: Blair, T-Bone, Dunnstral
D-tier: maxwell
E-tier: GuiltyLion, Kanna

VOTE: Kanna

Now, now, you call yourself an Innocent Child? You may want to reconsider.

[Rozyroz]

Right now no one pops out at me as suspicious. This will probably change soon and I'm open to hearing any evidence. My opinion right now is that we should lynch someone in a corner and of there is no way to know which corner to lynch as none of those players have said anything.
VOTE: GuiltyLion
Their name must make them guilty

[Rozyroz]

Correction: none of those players have said enough to make me suspicious of them

[T-Bone]

I picked Dunnstral out of the *check* three other people who posted last night as the scummiest of the three. I got a genuine feeling from Clover and have a soft town-lean there. I was mulling over whether Blair was purposely feeling like prioritizing optimal tic-tac-toe because she was scum and knew better, or because she is town and was genuinely trying to game-solve. I feel like it's the second but I still have a lingering feeling about the first. Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

[T-Bone]

Vote: Dunnstral

My lynch would certainly be convenient for you

But like, of all the ways to react? I feel like Dunnstral has been around long enough to know not to make assumptions about naked votes.

The "somewhat nod at is the one against myself" feels hilariously self-conscious scum. If you're town you should not find any reasoning against you to be good! Believable maybe, but why would you agree that your own posting is suspicious, instead of trying to correct me for why it is not?

Weird, as self-awareness is a good trait.

Clover, I will also engage you on this front:

If I can show you many, many, many, town games where I, as town, pressure people within the first 3 pages for "reaches" or molehills, and additionally

get flak

for doing so much like you are doing here, will you concede that your point is NAI? Because I am confident that a simple meta search will back me up here

Obligatory meta is trash post.

SNIP

No one likes being perceived as a newbie so this is a weird thing to try and hang a read on.

SNIP

And finally, I hate *most* of this post and I can't quite put my finger on why (basically all the quick thoughts). Probably hanging several "player X, Y, and Z are devoid of content" while being devoid of content. Self-awareness not being shown at this point. But they are quick thoughts? IDK.

[Blair]

Guilty as charged. I saw the day had started, saw it was early RVS, and decided to peace out until there was something more substantial. Normally I wouldn't mind messing around but I feel this setup needs to be played strategically so it's better for me to project Seriousness. I'm satisfied with what's been posted now to form reads, though. Going to start writing those up now.

despite finding the reasoning in his last post somewhat odd, I actually like Clover as town here - his push on guiltylion feels genuine with the way he's investigating his stances rather than trying to push on something cheap.

I like that guiltylion actually bothered to investigate my activity, on first pass I thought he was town but on a reread didn't like his back and forth with clover as much. I'm tired so my thinking is not the best. Still shows more evidence of tying to be proactive than most.

If I could confidently townread Blair I'd declare the game to be won already, but I can't - the early excessive setup talk comes across as avoiding scumhunting, and felt like she hands out townreads too easily in #40 and #73.

Dunnstral has been fillery, devoid of content, with a rather awkward start. Don't see what other people are seeing in the townread there. I'll be reading Micro 639 to see if that's just his meta/if he's easy lynchbait, though.

T-Bone's opening was fillery/useless, lot of talk about the setup and past games. Do kind of like his empty vote on Dunn, though, becuase I didn't like his start either, but it does look off given he started the game similarly.

Kanna: really fillery start, plus a weak sheep of clover's vote on guiltylion while only committing to "I kind of agree" in #67. probably the scummiest of everyone who's posted.

These two posts wouldn't be scummy on their own, but together they reek.

Maxwell recognizes how little substance there is to draw reads from in early RVS, so he skips it altogether so he can wait to jump in until there is enough content to post more substantial reads.

He then shades multiple players for "fillery start

," "useless content," and weak reads -

a conversation he can only have unironically because he avoided RVS himself.

Basically, he skipped RVS because making something from nothing is hard, then shows up and says, "They tried to make something from nothing, pretty weak start, maybe scummy?"

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

[Dunnstral]

Right now no one pops out at me as suspicious. This will probably change soon and I'm open to hearing any evidence. My opinion right now is that we should lynch someone in a corner and of there is no way to know which corner to lynch as none of those players have said anything.
VOTE: GuiltyLion
Their name must make them guilty

This is a weird vote, GuiltyLion has posted plenty to get a read from IMO so making this as an rvs vote while other people are voting him is weird

[maxwell]

The excuse in 82 is very strange. You make such ugly noises when you overexplain, maxwell.

Well, it's the truth and I can't help it. The fact is I wasn't concerned with appearing active and wanted to wait until there was something more to comment on.

If I'm being less reactionary Maxwell put up a blanket 'this person is fillery' read for everyone who wasn't talking about mechanics

If anything, the opposite? I said over-discussion of the tic tac toe mechanics be rather empty. I do have a strategy in mind for what people should do but posting mostly about board mechanics feels rather empty, a way to talk without advancing the game state.

And finally, I hate *most* of this post and I can't quite put my finger on why (basically all the quick thoughts). Probably hanging several "player X, Y, and Z are devoid of content" while being devoid of content. Self-awareness not being shown at this point. But they are quick thoughts? IDK.

I don't that's true, I at least tried to evaluate everyone I could even if my reads weren't particularly strong.


Gutfeel of noobtown from rozyroz's opening posts.

[T-Bone]

So was it a lack of self-awareness or something else?

[GuiltyLion]

Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

Hold up, apologies if I missed this somewhere but doesn't it matter a lot? If we open with an edge, while we can still force a draw with certain moves, we can also be forced into a tictactoe loss with wrong moves, which means we're giving ourselves a very tight lynchpool on D2.

[GuiltyLion]

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

I like this reasoning overall I think

My one hangup rn is, if Maxwell is scum and (presumably) trying to survive, why handout a townread on rozyroz so immediately? If he's scum and rozyroz is town that's a fairly easy avenue to throw shade or pressure, Dunnstral already highlighted it, why does he instead opt for a townread which might make it harder for him to vote there later?

[GuiltyLion]

B-tier: Clover Ebi
C-tier: Blair, T-Bone, Dunnstral
D-tier: maxwell
E-tier: GuiltyLion, Kanna

VOTE: Kanna

Now, now, you call yourself an Innocent Child? You may want to reconsider.

in the same vein as my post to T-Bone, I really think you should be voting me or Maxwell if these are your reads, lynching a corner is much better for us today and I don't think vanity votes on Kanna are gonna force scum to do things in the way that voting myself or Maxwell would. I do agree I was prob too eager to give her a townread last night and she deserves more pressure, but it'd be better to do that by forcing her to analyze my/maxwell's content

[GuiltyLion]

Correction: none of those players have said enough to make me suspicious of them

I'm thinking a lot about the likelihood of scum vs town RVS voting me and then making this correction 1-2 minutes later

I think overall I want to say it'd be

really bold

as scum to plan to just outright vote me, a leading wagon, and claim: a) that I haven't posted anything, and then b) actually, it's that nothing I've posted has made them suspicious. Because they would know if I'm lynched I'm going to flip town and everyone is gonna look at this vote and critique why it was made.

At the same time, how can town read the game and not be suspicious of anything anyone has posted?? Why would town RVS vote instead of trying to at least take a stand on something and advance the game, even if only to an incremental degree?

Does anyone have any really strong thoughts here? I'm probably landing on the 'newbie town' side, but it's odd enough that I can't rule it out as scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I think if Maxwell is scum, he's one of those "just try to emulate how you'd play as town" types and isn't bothering to plan for long term strategy in the game right now

and if he's town, I think it's decent odds rn that all four corners are town and scum is some combo of Kanna and one of Blair/T-Bone.

those be my latest thoughts, do with them what you will. I'll be around all day today

[GuiltyLion]

Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

Hold up, apologies if I missed this somewhere but doesn't it matter a lot? If we open with an edge, while we can still force a draw with certain moves, we can also be forced into a tictactoe loss with wrong moves, which means we're giving ourselves a very tight lynchpool on D2.

actually wait I drank coffee and started thinking about this and I think it's not necessarily true, if first goes on an edge they still have some flexibility depending on where the NK goes, more than I originally was thinking at least

[T-Bone]

Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

Hold up, apologies if I missed this somewhere but doesn't it matter a lot? If we open with an edge, while we can still force a draw with certain moves, we can also be forced into a tictactoe loss with wrong moves, which means we're giving ourselves a very tight lynchpool on D2.

Lynchpool is tight no matter what. You can force a draw from any starting position though. Remember that 5p LyLo is day 3 and endgame LyLo is Day 4

[maxwell]

So was it a lack of self-awareness or something else?

I flat-out disagree with your assessment, is what I'm saying. My posts were either questioning people on their stances or assessing other players. They had a purpose.

I think if Maxwell is scum, he's one of those "just try to emulate how you'd play as town" types and isn't bothering to plan for long term strategy in the game right now

I've thought a lot about strategy in this setup, but all from a town POV. Had thoughts about potential scum strategy while writing this but I'm not going to say any more because I don't want to give anyone ideas.

Guiltylion's recent string of posts make me feel more confident in him as town, at this point I'd probably be willing to stake the game on having both guilty and clover as town.

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and lynch the corner opposite to them. Town can direct the kills from that point forward so that only those 2 players survive.

[Clover Ebi]

I ammmm willing to reconsider Clover I think

not a fan of you casting me as a newbie tho I'll have you know I have played an

extensive

amount of games here over 5 years thank you

I haven't liked maxwell's posts so far

I'm not calling you a newbie! I just think your entire viewpoint on how people would play is something I would expect from one. If that makes sense.

Post 90 rings really weird to me mostly because of him saying before that he purposely waited for RVS to end. I guess I would assume he'd be more considerate? Yes a lot of the posters are filler like he explained, but he himself knew this. I honestly would've liked it better if he just said he didn't have a read on a few slots because it was mostly filler. Maybe it was pressure to get a reads list going? I could be looking into this too much. I am looking forward to seeing who these strong townreads are and strategy though. If Max is scum he's basically forcing himself into a really odd spot.

I ammmm willing to reconsider Clover I think

not a fan of you casting me as a newbie tho I'll have you know I have played an

extensive

amount of games here over 5 years thank you

I haven't liked maxwell's posts so far

Who has played with GuiltyLion before? I have a question.

If GuiltyLion is scum, being perceived as a newbie when he is not is objectively an advantage - being underestimated where you are competent and overestimated where you are not is strategically ideal (insert vapid Tsun Zhu reference here).

GuiltyLion throws that advantage away here, ostensibly to defend his reputation as an experienced player.

Is GuiltyLion the kind of player who looks a gift horse in the mouth? I'm discounting all the WIFOM-fuel answers here in favor of either A.) he is not the sort of player who believes being underestimated is an advantage, or B.) he is that sort of player, but didn't mind tossing that advantage in the garbage here because he's town and doesn't care about that sort of thing.

(If the answer really is "C.) he knows it's an advantage but tossed it aside here for the even greater advantage of being townread by Blair for doing so" then please don't even answer - I don't need that kind of stress)

Did everyone take my post about Lion calling him a newbie? I guess I need to explain better.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not calling you a newbie! I just think your entire viewpoint on how people would play is something I would expect from one. If that makes sense.