Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[GuiltyLion]

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and lynch the corner opposite to them. Town can direct the kills from that point forward so that only those 2 players survive.

why aren't you voting Dunnstral?

[Clover Ebi]

Right now no one pops out at me as suspicious. This will probably change soon and I'm open to hearing any evidence. My opinion right now is that we should lynch someone in a corner and of there is no way to know which corner to lynch as none of those players have said anything.
VOTE: GuiltyLion
Their name must make them guilty

How much of the game did you read when making this post? If all of it, who are your stronger townreads?

I see Blair has already made the same point as myself in post 111 neato.

The excuse in 82 is very strange. You make such ugly noises when you overexplain, maxwell.

Well, it's the truth and I can't help it. The fact is I wasn't concerned with appearing active and wanted to wait until there was something more to comment on.

If I'm being less reactionary Maxwell put up a blanket 'this person is fillery' read for everyone who wasn't talking about mechanics

If anything, the opposite? I said over-discussion of the tic tac toe mechanics be rather empty. I do have a strategy in mind for what people should do but posting mostly about board mechanics feels rather empty, a way to talk without advancing the game state.

And finally, I hate *most* of this post and I can't quite put my finger on why (basically all the quick thoughts). Probably hanging several "player X, Y, and Z are devoid of content" while being devoid of content. Self-awareness not being shown at this point. But they are quick thoughts? IDK.

I don't that's true, I at least tried to evaluate everyone I could even if my reads weren't particularly strong.


Gutfeel of noobtown from rozyroz's opening posts.

Is it bad I like this? I don't know, combined with the fact that everyone is kinda open to max dying and him doubling down I get bad feelings. Although this would go against my entire theory in the first place.

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 1.2

maxwell ​	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
Rozyroz ​	Kanna ​	Dunnstral ​

GuiltyLion

(3): Clover Ebi, Kanna, Rozyroz

maxwell

(2): GuiltyLion, Blair

Dunnstral

(1): T-Bone

Kanna

(1): Celeste

Not Voting

(2): maxwell, Dunnstral

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-16 00:50:00)

[maxwell]

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and lynch the corner opposite to them. Town can direct the kills from that point forward so that only those 2 players survive.

why aren't you voting Dunnstral?

Actually don't terribly see a need to vote at this point in time, I think my words are enough to get my views across and the vote should be more about the optimal play rather than anything else. I still find dunnstral somewhat suspicious, although his posts on the last page are a little bit better, and lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool especially when it seems most of the game doesn't townread me. I'm perfectly okay with putting myself in line for elimination as it means I'll flip town and hopefully my views will be trusted - There's 7 other players and I should at least be able to pick out 2 as town.

[maxwell]

Actually, reading back after the reference to dunnstral made me notice something:

[snip]

Scummy post relating to me & T-bone

I think T-bone is scummy; I think Blair said they were town because they were talking about mechanics early? I don't buy into that, I don't see a reason for mafia to avoid talking about mechanics - I do it all the time as mafia, actually

Okay, why is my post talking about you and T-Bone scummy when you suspect him as well?

[Umlaut]

Seeking a replacement for Kanna. (I have a few folks in the replace-in queue for this game, so it may be a day or so before the slot is advertised in the Replacement Requests thread.)

[Celeste]

A lack of adaptability...is a lack of survivability. Survival is not based on who is the strongest or the smartest. It comes down to who can adapt.

I see several that have failed.

[GuiltyLion]

Actually don't terribly see a need to vote at this point in time, I think my words are enough to get my views across and the vote should be more about the optimal play rather than anything else. I still find dunnstral somewhat suspicious, although his posts on the last page are a little bit better, and lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool especially when it seems most of the game doesn't townread me. I'm perfectly okay with putting myself in line for elimination as it means I'll flip town and hopefully my views will be trusted - There's 7 other players and I should at least be able to pick out 2 as town.

ah you know actually when I asked this question I thought I was in your corner, not vice versa, my b

I still think you should be voting somewhere though... again this is a blitz, we have two days until deadline, town needs to be pushing and doing stuff as relentlessly as possible. There's not really any reason

not

to be voting

[GuiltyLion]

Seeking a replacement for Kanna. (I have a few folks in the replace-in queue for this game, so it may be a day or so before the slot is advertised in the Replacement Requests thread.)

if the replacement search goes on for longer than ~12+ hours, can we get a deadline pause at that point?

[Umlaut]

if the replacement search goes on for longer than ~12+ hours, can we get a deadline pause at that point?

I'm not going to make promises about it now, but a deadline freeze at some point is an option I'm considering.

[Blair]

Did everyone take my post about Lion calling him a newbie? I guess I need to explain better.

Since you were responding to my question here, your intent wasn't the focus of my question - the important point was that he interpreted it that way, and felt obligated to address it.

...But yes, it definitely did come across that way. You explicitly compared his play to newbie play, but that's not the main reason - it's because your responses to him felt very... teachy? Educational? You were talking to him like you felt you needed to explain the game to him.

[Blair]

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

I like this reasoning overall I think

My one hangup rn is, if Maxwell is scum and (presumably) trying to survive, why handout a townread on rozyroz so immediately? If he's scum and rozyroz is town that's a fairly easy avenue to throw shade or pressure, Dunnstral already highlighted it, why does he instead opt for a townread which might make it harder for him to vote there later?

This defense hinges on the assumption that scum don't like giving out town reads, because those town reads will somehow "trap" them later in the game.

Townies flip their reads around all the time, often for dubious reasons, so I'm not sure it's a valid tell - I don't think scum!Maxwell would be afraid of "trapping" himself in a Rozyroz townread based on that singular post. He can, and probably will, change that read multiple times, regardless of alignment.

[Blair]

I see Blair has already made the same point as myself in post 111 neato.

You and GuiltyLion are the only players who actually acknowledged that post even existed.

Quoting it again for visibility:

Guilty as charged. I saw the day had started, saw it was early RVS, and decided to peace out until there was something more substantial. Normally I wouldn't mind messing around but I feel this setup needs to be played strategically so it's better for me to project Seriousness. I'm satisfied with what's been posted now to form reads, though. Going to start writing those up now.

despite finding the reasoning in his last post somewhat odd, I actually like Clover as town here - his push on guiltylion feels genuine with the way he's investigating his stances rather than trying to push on something cheap.

I like that guiltylion actually bothered to investigate my activity, on first pass I thought he was town but on a reread didn't like his back and forth with clover as much. I'm tired so my thinking is not the best. Still shows more evidence of tying to be proactive than most.

If I could confidently townread Blair I'd declare the game to be won already, but I can't - the early excessive setup talk comes across as avoiding scumhunting, and felt like she hands out townreads too easily in #40 and #73.

Dunnstral has been fillery, devoid of content, with a rather awkward start. Don't see what other people are seeing in the townread there. I'll be reading Micro 639 to see if that's just his meta/if he's easy lynchbait, though.

T-Bone's opening was fillery/useless, lot of talk about the setup and past games. Do kind of like his empty vote on Dunn, though, becuase I didn't like his start either, but it does look off given he started the game similarly.

Kanna: really fillery start, plus a weak sheep of clover's vote on guiltylion while only committing to "I kind of agree" in #67. probably the scummiest of everyone who's posted.

These two posts wouldn't be scummy on their own, but together they reek.

Maxwell recognizes how little substance there is to draw reads from in early RVS, so he skips it altogether so he can wait to jump in until there is enough content to post more substantial reads.

He then shades multiple players for "fillery start

," "useless content," and weak reads -

a conversation he can only have unironically because he avoided RVS himself.

Basically, he skipped RVS because making something from nothing is hard, then shows up and says, "They tried to make something from nothing, pretty weak start, maybe scummy?"

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

(Though I do not believe for even a moment that Maxwell, who has otherwise given detailed responses to everyone, did not see this post about him)

[Umlaut]

Cat Scratch Fever replaces Kanna.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Spoiler:

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Heck, the last post you can't really even defend against. Really the only post here I can somewhat nod at is the one against myself. Kanna and Max/Roz just feels off to me. Dunnstrals reaction to T-bone rubbed me the wrong way as well, but maybe I just don't like how defensive it was.

The "somewhat nod at is the one against myself" feels hilariously self-conscious scum. If you're town you should not find any reasoning against you to be good! Believable maybe, but why would you agree that your own posting is suspicious, instead of trying to correct me for why it is not?

I'm not really seeing the self conscious part. Moreover, I don't think Clover was agreeing with your reasoning or saying that your reasoning was good, but rather thought your point on him was the only bit that he could see as plausibly genuine.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

There's something off-putting about how many times you've shaded Clover while voting for someone (and pushing the closest thing to an RVS case against them!) who hasn't entered the thread yet.

Is it because Maxwell is in the corner and Clover isn't? Because you're ostensibly scumreading Clover hard enough to solicit a vote but you're withholding it for reasons that aren't clear to me.

Why ask GuiltyLion this question only to provide him with an answer?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Guilty as charged. I saw the day had started, saw it was early RVS, and decided to peace out until there was something more substantial. Normally I wouldn't mind messing around but I feel this setup needs to be played strategically so it's better for me to project Seriousness. I'm satisfied with what's been posted now to form reads, though. Going to start writing those up now.

despite finding the reasoning in his last post somewhat odd, I actually like Clover as town here - his push on guiltylion feels genuine with the way he's investigating his stances rather than trying to push on something cheap.

I like that guiltylion actually bothered to investigate my activity, on first pass I thought he was town but on a reread didn't like his back and forth with clover as much. I'm tired so my thinking is not the best. Still shows more evidence of tying to be proactive than most.

If I could confidently townread Blair I'd declare the game to be won already, but I can't - the early excessive setup talk comes across as avoiding scumhunting, and felt like she hands out townreads too easily in #40 and #73.

Dunnstral has been fillery, devoid of content, with a rather awkward start. Don't see what other people are seeing in the townread there. I'll be reading Micro 639 to see if that's just his meta/if he's easy lynchbait, though.

T-Bone's opening was fillery/useless, lot of talk about the setup and past games. Do kind of like his empty vote on Dunn, though, becuase I didn't like his start either, but it does look off given he started the game similarly.

Kanna: really fillery start, plus a weak sheep of clover's vote on guiltylion while only committing to "I kind of agree" in #67. probably the scummiest of everyone who's posted.

These two posts wouldn't be scummy on their own, but together they reek.

Maxwell recognizes how little substance there is to draw reads from in early RVS, so he skips it altogether so he can wait to jump in until there is enough content to post more substantial reads.

He then shades multiple players for "fillery start

," "useless content," and weak reads -

a conversation he can only have unironically because he avoided RVS himself.

Basically, he skipped RVS because making something from nothing is hard, then shows up and says, "They tried to make something from nothing, pretty weak start, maybe scummy?"

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

I like this post. There's just less to talk about in early game and mechanics is typically a conversation spring board, so people are more likely to make posts that he deems as 'filler'.

I'm agreeing with a lot of Dunnstral and TBone's posting on page 5.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

I like this reasoning overall I think

My one hangup rn is, if Maxwell is scum and (presumably) trying to survive, why handout a townread on rozyroz so immediately? If he's scum and rozyroz is town that's a fairly easy avenue to throw shade or pressure, Dunnstral already highlighted it, why does he instead opt for a townread which might make it harder for him to vote there later?

Doesn't this assume rozyroz is town?

Correction: none of those players have said enough to make me suspicious of them

I'm thinking a lot about the likelihood of scum vs town RVS voting me and then making this correction 1-2 minutes later

I think overall I want to say it'd be

really bold

as scum to plan to just outright vote me, a leading wagon, and claim: a) that I haven't posted anything, and then b) actually, it's that nothing I've posted has made them suspicious. Because they would know if I'm lynched I'm going to flip town and everyone is gonna look at this vote and critique why it was made.

At the same time, how can town read the game and not be suspicious of anything anyone has posted?? Why would town RVS vote instead of trying to at least take a stand on something and advance the game, even if only to an incremental degree?

Does anyone have any really strong thoughts here? I'm probably landing on the 'newbie town' side, but it's odd enough that I can't rule it out as scum.

Her second post seemed more like an ebwop/clarification rather than a bold declaration that you haven't made any content - I doubt she was actually claiming that you haven't posted anything. I think it's NAI

I'm not calling you a newbie! I just think your entire viewpoint on how people would play is something I would expect from one. If that makes sense.

Why was this a scummy thing to say?

[GuiltyLion]

I was using that emoji just to be like an annoyed sideye, not to literally convey the 'igmeou' or imply it was scummy

[GuiltyLion]

and yeah it does assume rozyroz is town - because it's also assuming Maxwell is scum - if both of them are scum then it might also explain that play but that's extremely unlikely in a vacuum and would also mean town is in a really good position here and isn't really worth bothering with IMO

[Cat Scratch Fever]

and yeah it does assume rozyroz is town - because it's also assuming Maxwell is scum - if both of them are scum then it might also explain that play but that's extremely unlikely in a vacuum and would also mean town is in a really good position here and isn't really worth bothering with IMO

That's fair

[Celeste]

Cat Scratch Fever's inquiries do not impress me and that slot remains in E-tier. With a rozyroz into Cat Scratch Fever lynch, we may just be able to escape this miserable killing game.

Upset at rolling mafia, Cat Scratch Fever? You seem dejected.

[Celeste]

It's unfortunate, but luck really does trump effort.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Is it bad I like this? I don't know, combined with the fact that everyone is kinda open to max dying and him doubling down I get bad feelings. Although this would go against my entire theory in the first place.

What about maxwell's post did you like?

Actually, reading back after the reference to dunnstral made me notice something:

[snip]

Scummy post relating to me & T-bone

I think T-bone is scummy; I think Blair said they were town because they were talking about mechanics early? I don't buy into that, I don't see a reason for mafia to avoid talking about mechanics - I do it all the time as mafia, actually

Okay, why is my post talking about you and T-Bone scummy when you suspect him as well?

Why is this weird if you and Dunnstral have different reasons for suspecting T-Bone?

As an aside, I think everyone should vote even if you're not confident in your scumreads because having your vote in play will help build wagons.

---

VOTE: maxwell

I think this is a good starting point.