Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Cat Scratch Fever's inquiries do not impress me and that slot remains in E-tier. With a rozyroz into Cat Scratch Fever lynch, we may just be able to escape this miserable killing game.

Upset at rolling mafia, Cat Scratch Fever? You seem dejected.

Why are you scumreading me? Because dejected sounding tone?

[Celeste]

Yes, or perhaps I am imagining it as it would fit this worldview I have created for myself for your slot.

Your dip into novice private investigating seemed unproductive, but I like your recent post on maxwell.

[Celeste]

Luck controls life. It is a terrifying force that cannot be fully understood.

Where path is Lady Luck ushering us towards? rozyroz or maxwell?

[Blair]

There's something off-putting about how many times you've shaded Clover while voting for someone (and pushing the closest thing to an RVS case against them!) who hasn't entered the thread yet.

Is it because Maxwell is in the corner and Clover isn't? Because you're ostensibly scumreading Clover hard enough to solicit a vote but you're withholding it for reasons that aren't clear to me.

Why ask GuiltyLion this question only to provide him with an answer?

I was implying that it was a pretty bad answer. The fact that he rolled with it caught me off guard.

[Blair]

I'm agreeing with a lot of Dunnstral and TBone's posting on page 5.

"I'm agreeing with

a lot of

" implies "but not quite all of" - what specifically do you agree with?

[maxwell]

I still think you should be voting somewhere though... again this is a blitz, we have two days until deadline, town needs to be pushing and doing stuff as relentlessly as possible. There's not really any reason

not

to be voting

That's a fair enough point. I think I've settled on a decision which I'll get to in a moment.

(Though I do not believe for even a moment that Maxwell, who has otherwise given detailed responses to everyone, did not see this post about him)

I saw it, I just didn't care to offer a response in any way. I've already explained that I think talking about general setup strategy without regard for the players in the current game is an easy way to fake content for scum, as they don't have to be dishonest about their opinions. There were players who I think did start scumhunting in earnest in that time frame

Anyway it's really completely unimportant to me to convince you that I'm town, and so continually defending myself in this manner is a waste of time especially when I think there's a pretty good chance you're scum.


Not impressed with Cat Scratch Fever's entry posts at all. Feel like random selections of posts to comment on, no real insight, riding off of things other people say. Doesn't improve my view of the slot at all.

Why is this weird if you and Dunnstral have different reasons for suspecting T-Bone?

Do we have different reasons? Maybe let him answer the damn question first. He seemed to be attacking him for similar reasons, though.

[maxwell]

Luck controls life. It is a terrifying force that cannot be fully understood.

Where path is Lady Luck ushering us towards? rozyroz or maxwell?

There's a way to kill both of us, and it starts with voting rozyroz. From there, mafia shoots you night 2. Then town lynches Cat Scratch Fever, forcing Dunnstral to be the night 2 kill, and I'm forced as the day 3 lynch. Of course, this loses the game if both mafia are within T-Bone/Clover Ebi/GuiltyLion/Blair, but I'm willing to bet the game on at least 1 scum being in one of the bottom 3 squares.

(you could also start with me, but then you'd have to kill guiltylion and either T-Bone or Clover instead. I don't townread T-Bone but I'd prefer getting Cat Scratch.)

So all the strategy I've alluded to in previous posts is this: By voting players in a certain order, we can force the scum kills for nights 2 and 3 to be on certain players, leaving us with only one corner of the board (I saw this was discovered in a previous game when I read through it, which made me feel less smart). So, what you should be doing as confirmed town in what is likely your only day alive is picking two players in adjacent squares you have strong townreads on, and plan a pattern that lynches everyone but them. I can illustrate this later but it's late not

So that being said, VOTE: rozyroz

I know I said I had a gut townread on them, and still do, but this sets up getting rid of the kanna/cat scratch slot, which I want to make happen. I could always be wrong about that read on rozy as well, that type of statement certain can come from a newbie scum player who doesn't know what to push on, my instinct is just that newbie town basically have to be honest when they don't know what to do while as scum they can just make something up and usually will.

(I feel bad putting my vote on an obviously new player day 1 especially when it doesn't really have anything to do with their play).

If you decide to get rid of me day 1 I'll accept it but I'd request that you then lynch rozy so that T-Bone and Blair are the next two to die. I don't want clover/guilty getting killed and an end board with blair/cat scartch/dunnstral on it is supbar as I don't find any of those players to be towny.

I won't vote guiltylion unless it's 1 minute before deadline and there are no other lynch options.

[Blair]

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and

lynch the corner opposite to them.

lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but

I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool

Politifact Truth-o-Meter™ determined this statement to be:

Spoiler:

When compared to the game board (and your own stated strategy), your scumreads are pretty conveniently placed:

maxwell ​	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
Rozyroz ​	Kanna ​	Dunnstral ​

Yet you felt the need, completely unprompted, to blurt out otherwise.

[Blair]

Damn you, that did not come up in preview while I was typing all that.

[Blair]

an end board with blair/cat scartch/dunnstral on it is supbar as I don't find any of those players to be towny.

Well, at least it still fits.

[maxwell]

I just posted a plan that guarantees my own lynch day 3. You, I definitely want dead, though.

[GuiltyLion]

rambly thoughts inncoming:

I don't think I'm feeling maxwell scum and I agree wiping the rozy/cat scratch fever/dunn row should net at least one scum (I also agree likely CSF, I was similarly uninspired by their entry)

also Blair, on this:

This defense hinges on the assumption that scum don't like giving out town reads, because those town reads will somehow "trap" them later in the game.

Townies flip their reads around all the time, often for dubious reasons, so I'm not sure it's a valid tell - I don't think scum!Maxwell would be afraid of "trapping" himself in a Rozyroz townread based on that singular post. He can, and probably will, change that read multiple times, regardless of alignment.

you're not wrong here, but I think it doesn't address the specific point I was making (or at least, wanted to make) about why does scum!Maxwell throw out that particular townread at that particular time? No one was going to push him for

not

townreading rozyroz, it was an entirely questionable couple of posts, and rozyroz would be one of the more viable alternatives to himself if he's already established a 'townread' on me (and/or feels I'm hard to lynch / knows he'd look really dirty on my flip).

It just doesn't feel like a move that especially benefits a scum agenda or is likely to come from scum, unless scum!Maxwell is fully convinced that town!Maxwell would townread rozyroz there, which also just doesn't feel all that likely.

Further, in the post just above, he votes rozyroz while still claiming to townread her! that's fairly nuanced mentality to emulate as scum, and while a cynical/pessimistic interpretation of his post might be "now he knows he's cornered and needs to justify voting a townread", it just fundamentally feels genuine to me in both timing and execution.

If I'm wrong on CSF then yeah I can definitely conceive of scum!maxwell, but this plan sets him up as a D3 lynch and we're fine in that scenario too.

Plus, I also just don't see a partner for Maxwell rn, most people seem fine with his lynch, and while bussing is viable in this setup since the NKs/lynches become dictated by Xs and Os to a degree, it still overall seems to me like scum would have made a stronger effort to divert attention away from their partner and nobody has attempted that at all, not even maxwell himself.

VOTE: rozyroz

[Blair]

I just posted a plan that guarantees my own lynch day 3. You, I definitely want dead, though.

I think you're smart enough to know people won't find a plan that starts with "Let's lynch this player whom I am townreading, and about whom I feel guilty because they are so new" to be very persuasive.

I don't think you really want it to happen, because you framed it intentionally terribly.

P-edit: I stand corrected, someone did sheep you on lynching your townread.

[GuiltyLion]

my overall reads are like this:

town: {Clover, maxwell, T-Bone}
meh: {Dunn, Rozy}
scum: {Blair, CSF}

[GuiltyLion]

I just posted a plan that guarantees my own lynch day 3. You, I definitely want dead, though.

I think you're smart enough to know people won't find a plan that starts with "Let's lynch this player whom I am townreading, and about whom I feel guilty because they are so new" to be very persuasive.

I don't think you really want it to happen, because you framed it intentionally terribly.

P-edit: I stand corrected, someone did sheep you on lynching your townread.

I mean you'd have a point here, if we were to completely ignore the set-up and how things would be likely to shake out if all four corners are town

[GuiltyLion]

T-Bone/Clover Ebi/GuiltyLion/Blair

I also would be curious to see if anyone disagrees with Maxwell about the succession of lynches/kills because they are worried that both scum might be in this particular grouping of 4 players

[Blair]

He isn't townreading all the corners, though. So "What if all the corners are town" doesn't apply to his internal logic.

[GuiltyLion]

He isn't townreading all the corners, though. So "What if all the corners are town" doesn't apply to his internal logic.

isn't he though? Nothing in his last few posts indicates a scumread on Dunn or myself

In D1 here it makes sense to vote a slot you're vaguely townreading but not sold on when that's the best you can do of the three available corner slots to you, especially given that it means a slot you actually want dead but shouldn't lynch today (CSF) are likely to follow.

[Blair]

He isn't townreading all the corners, though. So "What if all the corners are town" doesn't apply to his internal logic.

isn't he though? Nothing in his last few posts indicates a scumread on Dunn or myself

...

an end board with blair/cat scartch/dunnstral on it is supbar as I don't find any of those players to be towny.

...

I may be tunneling.

I find increasingly lately that I am usually tunneling.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

max, if you want me lynched tomorrow, then why are you voting rozy over dunn? Doesn't lynching dunn bring you closer to victory given your scumreads (or not-townreads more accurately) are in that bottom right corner?

[Blair]

If I accept that Maxwell actually wants to sell this plan, then he can really only be scum with GuiltyLion or Clover. GuiltyLion is more likely, because Max can't guarantee that everyone will follow his Day 2 plan just because they followed Day 1- and if T-Bone were lynched Day 2*instead of CSF, that would jeopardize Clover, but still not GuiltyLion.

It's weird to think scum would suggest a plan that lynches themselves - but if it saves their partner, then it is less weird than a townie proposing a plan that lynches their townread Day 1 and themselves Day 3, when they could have proposed the mirror image of that plan and lynched their scumread Day 1 and their townread Day 3 (I would rather lynch a town read than lynch confirmed town [self] under most circumstances).

[Dunnstral]

Why is this weird if you and Dunnstral have different reasons for suspecting T-Bone?

Do we have different reasons? Maybe let him answer the damn question first. He seemed to be attacking him for similar reasons, though.

I wasn't going after him for a lack of content, I was talking about different things

[Dunnstral]

Right now no one pops out at me as suspicious. This will probably change soon and I'm open to hearing any evidence. My opinion right now is that we should lynch someone in a corner and of there is no way to know which corner to lynch as none of those players have said anything.
VOTE: GuiltyLion
Their name must make them guilty

This is a weird vote, GuiltyLion has posted plenty to get a read from IMO so making this as an rvs vote while other people are voting him is weird

This is still a thing for me

[Celeste]

my overall reads are like this:

town: {Clover, maxwell, T-Bone}
meh: {Dunn, Rozy}
scum: {Blair, CSF}

How insolent. Do you deem me unworthy of receiving one of your precious reads?

[Celeste]

rozyroz -> Cat Scratch Fever -> maxwell is a fine plan.