Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[Celeste]

I don't fear death. I welcome the end of this day. But you know, if I could be reincarnated... If I had a choice, then... I think I would like to come back as Marie Antoinette. Hmhm.

[maxwell]

max, if you want me lynched tomorrow, then why are you voting rozy over dunn? Doesn't lynching dunn bring you closer to victory given your scumreads (or not-townreads more accurately) are in that bottom right corner?

Strictly speaking, yes. but a day 1 dunnstral lynch guarantees I live to the final 3 unless town decides to play absurdly suboptimally (lynching opposite corners back to back is an automatic loss for town if both slots are town), and and as I'm not townread by a majority of players I'm not going to propose a plan that involves me surviving to the final 3. A dunnstral lynch also still runs into the issue of losing the game if any of {t-bone, clover, blair} are scum together, so it's not terribly different from adding guiltylion into the pool (and I don't think he's likely to be partnered with any of those).

If I accept that Maxwell actually wants to sell this plan, then he can really only be scum with GuiltyLion or Clover. GuiltyLion is more likely, because Max can't guarantee that everyone will follow his Day 2 plan just because they followed Day 1- and if T-Bone were lynched Day 2*instead of CSF, that would jeopardize Clover, but still not GuiltyLion.

It's weird to think scum would suggest a plan that lynches themselves - but if it saves their partner, then it is less weird than a townie proposing a plan that lynches their townread Day 1 and themselves Day 3, when they could have proposed the mirror image of that plan and lynched their scumread Day 1 and their townread Day 3 (I would rather lynch a town read than lynch confirmed town [self] under most circumstances).

It's completely irrelevant to consider though, because if I'm scum (I'm not), I get lynched day 3, and you can adjust your views as to who my partner is based on my flip. I'll flip town, though, so you don't need to worry about that in the slightest.

If you're really, truly, absolutely confident I'm scum, then take a death pact: I get lynched day 1, and when I flip town, town lynches rozy, forces the kill onto t-bone, and you get lynched day 3. If you're confident, no problem, right?

[maxwell]

Why is this weird if you and Dunnstral have different reasons for suspecting T-Bone?

Do we have different reasons? Maybe let him answer the damn question first. He seemed to be attacking him for similar reasons, though.

I wasn't going after him for a lack of content, I was talking about different things

...what was it, then? You can type more than 1 sentence per post, you know.

[Umlaut]

Rozyroz was prodded. She has (expired on 2020-06-15 04:37:00) to pick up her prod.

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 1.3

maxwell ​	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
Rozyroz ​	Cat Scratch Fever ​	Dunnstral ​

maxwell

(2): Blair, Cat Scratch Fever

GuiltyLion

(2): Clover Ebi, Rozyroz

Rozyroz

(2): maxwell, GuiltyLion

Dunnstral

(1): T-Bone

Cat Scratch Fever

(1): Celeste

Not Voting

(1): Dunnstral

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-16 00:50:00)

Notes:

• Rozyroz has (expired on 2020-06-15 04:37:00) to pick up her prod.

[Blair]

It's completely irrelevant to consider though, because if I'm scum (I'm not), I get lynched day 3, and you can adjust your views as to who my partner is based on my flip. I'll flip town, though, so you don't need to worry about that in the slightest.

Yeah... I'd rather not wait until 3p lylo to start sorting that out, sorry.

If you're really, truly, absolutely confident I'm scum, then take a death pact: I get lynched day 1, and when I flip town, town lynches rozy, forces the kill onto t-bone, and you get lynched day 3. If you're confident, no problem, right?

Spoiler:

(Spoiler Alert: He won't flip town)

[Clover Ebi]

I'm getting too lost in thinking of lynch combos and night kills when I should just focus on the game itself at the moment. Mostly because this talk on all the plans makes me think of all the ways it can go wrong.

[Clover Ebi]

It leads me back to my first post on how influenced will people be by the other wincon. Do you think Maxwell is trying to lynch someone he townreads is genuine or just an excuse to get a ML off banking on the fact we won't lynch him? Honestly, I can see a world where GL/Max fits the bill, but I think I want Max to flip the most out of the four squares. The only real appeal I see in lynching Roy is we're killing the bottom row whereas I can see both the people next to me flipping scum. Wait, that would lead to my own death. Well I guess that's okay but yeah let me get some coffee

[Clover Ebi]

Actually don't terribly see a need to vote at this point in time, I think my words are enough to get my views across and the vote should be more about the optimal play rather than anything else. I still find dunnstral somewhat suspicious, although his posts on the last page are a little bit better, and lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool especially when it seems most of the game doesn't townread me. I'm perfectly okay with putting myself in line for elimination as it means I'll flip town and hopefully my views will be trusted - There's 7 other players and I should at least be able to pick out 2 as town.

The problem with this is we don't know if you're town at the moment. So you picking out two other town might be good for you, it isn't helpful for us. Plus putting yourself up for a lynch is awful if you're thinking pure row base. Which should only be used to help with night kills not win us the game imo.

A lack of adaptability...is a lack of survivability. Survival is not based on who is the strongest or the smartest. It comes down to who can adapt.

I see several that have failed.

I get that you're playing a character but I strongly agree with this

..But yes, it definitely did come across that way. You explicitly compared his play to newbie play, but that's not the main reason - it's because your responses to him felt very... teachy? Educational? You were talking to him like you felt you needed to explain the game to him.

Wait really?! That wasn't my intent at all. Now I feel bad hopefully I cleared it up

What about maxwell's post did you like?

Max feels like he's playing to get the game solved than survive is my main worry with lynching him. Like if max is scum he's trying to set up his partner here not live.

[Clover Ebi]

I think my main problem is I only have 2 good townreads at the moment. (Being Blair and T-bone) I think if Max is scum his plan is to set up Guilty who is still my biggest scumread.

[maxwell]

It's completely irrelevant to consider though, because if I'm scum (I'm not), I get lynched day 3, and you can adjust your views as to who my partner is based on my flip. I'll flip town, though, so you don't need to worry about that in the slightest.

Yeah... I'd rather not wait until 3p lylo to start sorting that out, sorry.

If you're really, truly, absolutely confident I'm scum, then take a death pact: I get lynched day 1, and when I flip town, town lynches rozy, forces the kill onto t-bone, and you get lynched day 3. If you're confident, no problem, right?

Spoiler:

So that's a yes, then? You'd agree to that lynch order?
(Spoiler Alert: He won't flip town)

I'm getting too lost in thinking of lynch combos and night kills when I should just focus on the game itself at the moment. Mostly because this talk on all the plans makes me think of all the ways it can go wrong.

There's effectively no way for scum to block a rozy-cat scratch-dunn-maxwell-tbone pattern, if they break sequence and shoot someone other than the IC there's a corresponding move to maintain control. Unfortunately maxwell-rozy-tabone-blair can be blocked but town ought to have a contingency for that event and I'll demand Blair's head no matter what in that situation. I think it's most important to focus on reading other players but in this setup your lynches on day 2 and day 3 are contingent on who you vote day 1, so long term planning is absolutely paramount as town ought to maximize control of who dies, to do otherwise is handing scum a massive advantage.

P-edit: Clover, my plan after lynching roz mechanically ensures that I will be lynched day 3. It is literally impossible for me to escape being killed if town follows through with it.

[maxwell]

Those townreads are atrocious.

[Clover Ebi]

What don't you like about Blair and T-bone?

[Clover Ebi]

What don't you like about Blair and T-bone?

Now that they've posted more that is.

[maxwell]

T-Bones posts are basically minimal contribution, taking very few stances, with some slight interjections or commentary to seem active. The only real stances are a scumread on dunnstral which he hasn't really justified at all, a slight townread on you, and saying he hates a post by me. In a game like this it's crucial to try to read as much of the board as possible and he simply has contributed very little in the way of scumhunting. Blair is a bit harder to explain but as I said earlier I felt she was handing out townreads too easily for superficial reasons, did a lot of posts on tic-tac-toe strategy without regard for how the game interacts with the mafia gamestate (this is a good way to appear to be posting content while not saying anything useful). Past that they're very soft, sheeping guiltylion's vote onto me and then finding reasons to justify it after the fact in everything i post, while not saying a lot elsewhere, throwing shade on a few people here and there, it looks as if their posts past voting me have been those of someone looking to keep their options open. The insistence on taking me out first when my plan has literally no value to me as scum and guarantees my death reads like they're afraid of what will happen if it's followed through on and want me out first because it's strategically beneficial to them and they can try to worm their way out of the lynch pattern. It's completely ludicrous to be so paranoid I'm scum setting up a plan to get my partner to 3-way and so I absolutely have to die first - There should be absolutely no issue because even if I were scum you'd be able to read off my flip to find a partner.

I want to see if Blair accepts my death pact, though because my views are contingent on that.

[Blair]

I did accept it. You quoted my acceptance.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Spoiler:

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Actually yeah Clover, why is T Bone your top townread? You haven't really mentioned him until now

[maxwell]

I did accept it. You quoted my acceptance.

Okay, just making sure. Ironically that means a blair/t-bone team is pretty unlikely, seeing as my vote on rozy would give them the win while going after me would ensure a loss. Possibly they could just not be thinking about that possibility but I'd think they'd want to avoid that degree of direct confrontation. I still like my plan with my vote on rozy better (because cat scratch fever needs to die, especially after 191, and the thought of them being in final 3 annoys me) but I'll gladly consent to being the day 1 vote if town agrees to follow my plan (I'll post contingency strategies for scum killing a non-celeste space if that is what people decide on).

[Cat Scratch Fever]

You didn't like my meme?

[Umlaut]

Seeking a replacement for Rozyroz.

T-Bone was prodded. He has (expired on 2020-06-15 07:25:00) to pick up his prod.

[GuiltyLion]

Max feels like he's playing to get the game solved than survive is my main worry with lynching him. Like if max is scum he's trying to set up his partner here not live.

this is exactly why Max is town

Why are you townreading Blair?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

One day left so we should consolidate wagons quickly since some people only check in sporadically.

I still prefer max, but it's hard to gaf to argue against a rozy lynch. Although I'm not just going to keel over and die tomorrow if we lynch that slot today

Even though a max/GL team would make sense, I actually kinda liked GL slot initially because he seemed to be constantly reassessing his reads (on Clover in particular), so I would still prefer to not lynch GL until after a max flip

Dunnstral I think is probably just town. He seems to react more defensively to being scumread as town than scum

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty who is still my biggest scumread.

also not really following how I'm still your biggest scumread at this point

like if you step back and take a look at the game in the objective sense I've done much more to try to sort and solve than well over half the players in this game

[Clover Ebi]

Actually yeah Clover, why is T Bone your top townread? You haven't really mentioned him until now

T-bones first post seems like something he just doesn't need to say as scum. Along with the fact I don't really see much of an agenda in his posting. The biggest qip I can really give to him is he's blending in. But I'd make that same statement to 3 other people here.

Max feels like he's playing to get the game solved than survive is my main worry with lynching him. Like if max is scum he's trying to set up his partner here not live.

this is exactly why Max is town

Why are you townreading Blair?

Blair has made exact posts I would've made before I did. I just agree with a lot of her thought process and like the way she's handling the game.

Guilty who is still my biggest scumread.

also not really following how I'm still your biggest scumread at this point

like if you step back and take a look at the game in the objective sense I've done much more to try to sort and solve than well over half the players in this game

I will admit my worry about you is if this is just a playstyle clash and you really are just, town. Hence why I'm not really trying to push your slot very hard. The better way to put it is I see reasons why you'd be scum over others.