Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Almost50]

OK, so where do you think the Mafia kill went; assuming PB was killed by the SK as you proposed?

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Spoiler: Mod VC

lilith2013 [4]:

Menalque [2433], Datisi [2465], Almost50 [2467], PenguinPower [2470]

-- [L-2]

Something_Smart [2]:

skitter30 [2389], Firebringer [2424]

Not Voting [5]:

Bingle, MariaR, Something_Smart, lilith2013, Blake Belladonna

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to hammer.

[lilith2013]

doctor/jk/hider/commuter.......

[Something_Smart]

Why are people talking about an SK after there was only one kill?

[skitter30]

ok i'm just going to post this now before a50 gets too far into it (and was just waiting a bit for lilith to respond to his accusation of her)

and i don't think claiming this ups my nk-able-ness that much given this pl and given everything

i'm a vig
i shot pb last night
barring scum shooting him too he was not the scum nk, and the nk is missing. i don't know who it was or what happened to it

i wanted to not-lynch gobbles yesterday so that i could vig him last night (even though i was townreading him) cuz i don't have the best aim as a vig and i thought that was an easy shot and best way to resolve gobbles. and if i'm wrong on who i'm trying to lynch people can try to talk me out of it - i like bouncing my ideas off of people before removing people from the game. whereas if i'm shooting it's just me and i sometimes get tunneled and i didn't want to mess things up too badly so i wanted the 'easy' vig-target. i wasn't sure who to vig after gobbles got lynched but i thought pb was one of the worst pushers of the wagon so i vigged him. it was pretty close between him and ss but i thought i might be tunneled on ss so if i'm wrong there i wanted the oppurtunity to be talked out of it

@ mena pb's read on me and datisi had literally nothing to do with him dying

also i was thinking about vigging mariar too but i thought she *might* be busdriven given what a50 was saying yesterday
and i wanted to try to make a shot that would not be interfered with by scum

given the missing nk it's unlikely we have an sk because then we'd be missing two kills

i was also kinda waiting for more people to check in to see if anybody's reaction would be kinda scum-indicative before posting this

PB doesn’t really make sense as an NK for groupscum since he was pretty low influence and also not that townread

this is the sort of thing i would say as scum knowing that i didn't actually do that kill and wouldn't have made that kill

no, i’m not the SK.

the word 'the' also belies that she believes that there's an sk (it should not be obvious to anyone right now that there's a second source of kills - except to me and the mafia)

doctor/jk/hider/commuter.......

this would imply to me that scum did not try to strongman kill last night

(and inb4 people inform me i'm an sk)

[skitter30]

if lilith is scum i don't think ss is
but there's very likely scum on the gobble wagon so i think we ought to be looking there too

[lilith2013]

i mean i’m just agreeing with a50’s thoughts, pb didn’t really make sense as a scumkill unless they were trying to guarantee a kill? and he said SK so i automatically thought of SK first but my logic could have been applied to a vig as well

[Datisi]

skit ur an sk

[skitter30]

inb4

[skitter30]

i mean i’m just agreeing with a50’s thoughts, pb didn’t really make sense as a scumkill unless they were trying to guarantee a kill? and he said SK so i automatically thought of SK first but my logic could have been applied to a vig as well

my point is more that an uninformed townie perspective would be to think that pb was a weird mafia nk

[skitter30]

i really don't like being vig, it feels like a lot of pressure and i don't want to mess it all up by hitting the strongest investigative role or something by mistake :/

[Almost50]

OK. skitter's claim only tells me there's less of a chance we have an SK. HOWEVER, Mafia still didn't know that and would have still assumed it was an SK kill (I agree lillith saying that increases her chances of being Mafia) and they may still have suspected their own shot failed because it hit the SK (with them already thinking there is one).

The major change here is if lillith flips Mafia Menalque is almost confirmed a townie, because there's absolutely no need for him to have bused in that case given the game status.

[skitter30]

OWEVER, Mafia still didn't know that and would have still assumed it was an SK kill (I agree lillith saying that increases her chances of being Mafia)

i think (?) we're saying the same thing?

[Almost50]

i really don't like being vig, it feels like a lot of pressure and i don't want to mess it all up by hitting the strongest investigative role or something by mistake :/

FTR, I would have holstered if I were you. Vig shooting blindly on N1 is not a good idea IMHO. If we have had NO KILL last night the game status would have been a lot different too and "maybe" scum would have pushed their kill target as an SK then. Not saying you did anything wrong. Just stating what I would have thought and done for the record.

[Almost50]

OWEVER, Mafia still didn't know that and would have still assumed it was an SK kill (I agree lillith saying that increases her chances of being Mafia)

i think (?) we're saying the same thing?

I mean, I did say "I agree" implying that we are saying the same thing.

[skitter30]

i really don't like being vig, it feels like a lot of pressure and i don't want to mess it all up by hitting the strongest investigative role or something by mistake :/

FTR, I would have holstered if I were you. Vig shooting blindly on N1 is not a good idea IMHO. If we have had NO KILL last night the game status would have been a lot different too and "maybe" scum would have pushed their kill target as an SK then. Not saying you did anything wrong. Just stating what I would have thought and done for the record.

yeah i thought about that too.
i overthink a lot

i didn't really think through the possibility of scum's nk not going through and i could anticipate there only being the mafia nk n1 and then when i have to claim later down the line people point to the lack of vig shots and tell me that it's all some insidious plot and that i'm lying about being sk/vig and i wanted to avoid that if possible by at least having a substantiated night action. i wanted that to be gobbles but eh

like now people either have to accept that i'm vig or sk but barring some insane ploy right now i don't make sense as scum

[skitter30]

I mean, I did say "I agree" implying that we are saying the same thing.

well you wrote that you agree with lilith so i was just checking that you meant to say that you agreed with me

[lilith2013]

there’s a 50% chance of there being an SK.... vs like a 5% chance of a vig. like in most universes we do have an SK?

[skitter30]

i'm not sure those numbers are accurate?

[skitter30]

(like i'm always the subject of everyone's paranoias so i just didn't want to do anything to exacerbate what i already anticipate will be happening)

[lilith2013]

oh my vig math is wrong. i didn’t actually do the combinatorics but chances of having at least one K should be 10% and if it’s exactly one K then it’s less than that so somewhere between 5-10%. i think sk probability is still 50% though?

[lilith2013]

okay i’m just gonna do the math

[Datisi]

my level zero thinking is currently saying "oh cool skitt is town"

[Menalque]

That’s a bold claim for skitt to be making here if she’s SK, not that it makes it impossible

[skitter30]

like i said ...

[Datisi]

how likely do you actually think that is, mena?