Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Menalque]

Hmm, does scum!skitt ever claim vig here and then try to explain a missing NK every night until she gets lynched? I feel like the answer is probably not and also I kind of doubt scum let vig!skitt live multiple nights due to the strength of her reads and that even as SK she would have to turn on them I think tonight if she wanted to win

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Spoiler: Mod VC

lilith2013 [4]:

Menalque [2433], Datisi [2465], Almost50 [2467], PenguinPower [2470]

-- [L-2]

Something_Smart [2]:

skitter30 [2389], Firebringer [2424]

Not Voting [5]:

Bingle, MariaR, Something_Smart, lilith2013, Blake Belladonna

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to hammer.

[Almost50]

there’s a 50% chance of there being an SK.... vs like a 5% chance of a vig. like in most universes we do have an SK?

I don't get where you got those %ages, but I'd say the Vig has a way higher probability than 5%. Just ONE rolle of a K (10% each roll * 7 rolls = 70%, then divided by 2 because it's a 50-50 Vig/Vengeful = 35%. Assuming one K was rolled (10%) another K is 60% (60% total) but in that case we would be guaranteed BOTH Vig AND Vengful, but I'm not going to take this into account. Just the first part tells me we have

at least

a 35% chance of having a Vig in play).

[Menalque]

Inb4 skitter retracts and claims VT at like 5 days to deadline (love u turkey)

[Datisi]

menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

[lilith2013]

okay according to my math there’s approximately a 3.3% chance of there being a vig in this setup so clearly i went wrong somewhere

[lilith2013]

welp clearly i’ve been thinking about this setup completely wrong

[Menalque]

Okay, so taking it as given that skitter is a vig, that means that we’re in a setup with at least 2 tpr right? So we’re looking for setups which are TTTTT or lower for scum power

[skitter30]

yeah as soon as i rolled vig i was p sure i'd be getting things like that no matter what i did so i just kinda wanted to substantiate the role existing and try to minimize collateral damage

[Menalque]

menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

Huh

What?

[Something_Smart]

That’s a bold claim for skitt to be making here if she’s SK, not that it makes it impossible

"Bold" is not the word I would use. I prefer "stupid".

[Datisi]

no, it's theoretically possible there's 6T and 1K

pedit: @mena's post about setup

[skitter30]

scum's nk went missing tho

[Datisi]

menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

Huh

What?

i'm really not vibin with 2522 and 2525

pedit: right that is a thing that maybe happened

[skitter30]

well it either went missing or they also shot pb, those are the only two options

the only other scenario is they hit a bp sk but there's only one kill and i'm claiming it so that's not that likely either

[Menalque]

no, it's theoretically possible there's 6T and 1K

pedit: @mena's post about setup

Okay but my point is that assuming skitt is being honest for now, we’re moving very close to a situation where scum are unlikely to have a bus driver

Also what did you mean about making you scumread me?

[skitter30]

y no bus driver?

[Menalque]

menaaaaaaaa don't make me start scumreading youuuu

Huh

What?

i'm really not vibin with 2522 and 2525

pedit: right that is a thing that maybe happened

In what sense?

[Datisi]

yeah, thati's why i said it's *theoretically* possible

maybe all of vig groupscum and sk shot pb /s

pedit: why are we moving close to a situation where scum is unlikely to have a bus driver?

ppedit: idk they sound like those convoluted "hmm i wonder if this is happening" posts that scum!mena makes

[Menalque]

y no bus driver?

Because at 3 TPR it switches to a JOAT and doesn’t change back until you get to like 5 TPRs in the game

[skitter30]

i mean we don't know if those other prs dont' exist yet, we wouldn't exactly see the outcome of those actions

[Menalque]

Like 4 Ts or 3Ts are the most likely outcomes, yes? I’m pretty sure bingle/ddl ran the math on that in C9++

So if we’ve ruled out that we’re in 7 or 6 Ts and we know that 0 or 1 Ts are unlikely, it means that unless we’re in 2 or 5 there’s no bus driver

[Menalque]

i mean we don't know if those other prs dont' exist yet, we wouldn't exactly see the outcome of those actions

Unless we’re in a 5T scenario I think it’s unlikely we have a bus driver

[skitter30]

ok but we dont' know that yet so i don't want to rule out those things yet

i know i'm a pr
there's likely a doc/commuter/etc

so two PR's, and TTTTT or fewer, and that's all i'm comfortable assuming just yet

[skitter30]

and i need people to help me optimize who to vig except i'll probably only listen to the people i townread

[Menalque]

idk they sound like those convoluted "hmm i wonder if this is happening" posts that scum!mena makes

Well err, they’re not? They’re me trying to work through the new information that we supposedly have a town vig and whether I think skitt would claim that as SK or as groupscum at this point in the game