Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[ofrhz]

denied

---

Spoiler: Mod VC

lilith2013 [3]:

Menalque [2433], Almost50 [2467], PenguinPower [2470]

Something_Smart [2]:

skitter30 [2389], Firebringer [2424]

Not Voting [6]:

Bingle, MariaR, Something_Smart, lilith2013, Blake Belladonna, Datisi [2585]

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to hammer.

[Menalque]

denied

I just want you to know that I knew it was there and I left it for you

[PenguinPower]

[PenguinPower]

[Almost50]

i don't want the day to end like before i talk to a50 about who he thinks i ought to kill

Like, tight now I have at last two reasons to recommend that you don't shoot anyone on N2 (or if you do then it's goes unannounced and uncrumbed). First reason is I do not have one single genuine

strong

SR. This means I only have a bunch of TRs and some sort of a PoE list, which i not good enough to say "Shoot X, They're either scum or in confirms Y is scum".

The second reason is we have yet to rule out the BD, and if there is a BD then you do NOT announce your target beforehand, EVEN if it was a Scum player. In fact, "if I was scum myself" I would let you shoot said target (provided it's not the BD themselves) to give you the false impression there is no BD. Don't forget the BD is ONE SHOT, so it has to be used strategically. Now if your announced target is not scum, I'd say scum may switch them with someone of a higher priority for them to kill, and that includes yourself. Coupled with they own NK that's then having 2 of their desired "elimination list" removed in the same night, and if they also have a JOAT they can RB a third and tonight will be their best night ever.

Your one and only problem is you do not think as Scum when you roll town. You think as Town and only as town. Try imagining that you are scum and do the planning you would considering what you know, and will probably be able to see a lot of what we sometimes miss because we are thinking from a purely town perspective.

P.S. Do I even make sense above? I feel like I've typed a lot trying to explain too little. Whatever.

[skitter30]

k. i will keep in mind what you have said

(it's hard for me to plan as scum when i'm town because i do'nt know what the have or don't have and i get overwhelmed trying to optimize over {every possible universe} so i just don't)

[Almost50]

i don't want the day to end like before i talk to a50 about who he thinks i ought to kill
and mena that scenario is lowkey ridiculous, sorry

i'm p confident there's at least one scum in the original gobbles wagon, as well as the final gobbles wagon, so i'd like to concentrate there

(S_S, mariaR, fire) if lilith reds?

before

i talk to a50

I mean, this is indeed my PoE (plus Datisi) but I would still strongly recommend that you holster. Unless someone decides to claim Commuter and that they're Commuting tonight (well, even that could be a bluff with a JOAT in play, so they can RB you and then that fake Commuter claim is falsely verified)

[skitter30]

ss how do you feel about lilith rn?

[skitter30]

also does anybody know if mariar usually has good reads?

[Almost50]

Datisi, skitter - town
Blake, bingle
A50 - townlean
S_S - null
Firebringer, mariaR, PP - nullscum
Lilith - scum

I think this is /probably/ very right or very wrong and there’s only one way to find out!

Yes, and that is to wait for endgame and find out.

[Almost50]

https://imgflip.com/i/45btzw

I couldn’t make it appear using the normal img tags but pls enjoy this meme I made

WARNING! NOBODY CLICK THAT LINK!

Reason: That guy is not wearing a mask.

[MariaR]

The one time me and PB tr each other yall kill him n1? How harsh~

[MariaR]

Talking about where the mafia nk went is useless
Lynching Skitter today is useless.
Whew I just was able to avoid reading the whole start of this day~

[MariaR]

also does anybody know if mariar usually has good reads?

Strongly depends on the amount of effort I'm putting into a game.

[skitter30]

your scumreads yesterday amounted to {vt who obviously lolclaimed and was p obviously town} and {vig} so uh do you wanna maybe update your scumreads now?

[MariaR]

I think it's best I take a step back and just listen for a lot of this phase since I'm 0/2 atm (even though I can make a strong argument for how both played very anti town in an awful manner but regardless) Idm voting in Lilith/Blake since I still had them in 'poe' but it's clear some of my townreads are incorrect. I just need to figure out where.

[skitter30]

hmmmm ngl i was expecting more people to inform me i'm an sk

[Bingle]

Like 4 Ts or 3Ts are the most likely outcomes, yes? I’m pretty sure bingle/ddl ran the math on that in C9++

So if we’ve ruled out that we’re in 7 or 6 Ts and we know that 0 or 1 Ts are unlikely, it means that unless we’re in 2 or 5 there’s no bus driver

It is in fact a bell curve, yes.

[Almost50]

hmmmm ngl i was expecting more people to inform me i'm an sk

If it makes you feel better; you're the SK.

But seriously, claiming the kill on PB is too poor a play of you were the SK, not only because you have just set yourself as a target for the scum team (well, that could be chalked up on you realizing they actually shot you so they know who you are anyway), but also because it stopped a certain someone from going places with their wild theories (which would have been beneficial to you if you kept them going for a while). Finally, SK you would have to explain your kills from now on, or would have to holster (if you follow my advice) which will certainly hold you back for longer (which means the scum team influence will increase if we don't lynch them, or the town becomes more ready to lycnh you if we do lynch scum). I simply can't see you making such a poor move if you were the SK.

[Blake Belladonna]

Skitter30, you are a Serial Killer.

[Almost50]

Like 4 Ts or 3Ts are the most likely outcomes, yes? I’m pretty sure bingle/ddl ran the math on that in C9++

So if we’ve ruled out that we’re in 7 or 6 Ts and we know that 0 or 1 Ts are unlikely, it means that unless we’re in 2 or 5 there’s no bus driver

It is in fact a bell curve, yes.

AP says he loves curves

[Bingle]

I strongly doubt that Skitter30 would kill Pink Ball as scum on night one.

I also would not kill punk bill as scum on night 1.

[skitter30]

(aside arguing with mena about how scum!me would not ahve killed ponk bill last night when town!me did was p weird lol)

[Bingle]

You know me, so you'll probably understand I won't rule out 6T unless we do have a second PR flip/claim. Theoretically is could still be 6T with scum deciding to holster to see if there's another kill to decide if they are in 6T or 7T themselves, while giving town the false impression that there might be a Doctor or there is not a SK (Too convoluted? Yes. Unlikey? Yes. Possible? Definitely YES).

I mean, there’s also crosskill potential, theoretically.

I want to say mena jumping to NKA looks town for the inverse of skitts reasoning on Lilith though.

[Firebringer]

are we wagoning smart yet

im still running on low sleep i haven't read anything since i took my long nap