Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[GuiltyLion]

Word, I hear ya, I'll try to think of whether I have more useful things to say, but honestly the Dunn flip didn't change much for me.

I'll look into beeboy interactions since there may be some useful stuff there

[Clover Ebi]

Can't tell if I'm underthinking or you guys are overthinking. It seems pretty simple from my pov

[Blair]

This much, at least, is clear: Scum were willing to clearly incriminate CSF to incentivize a GL lynch today.

Either CSF is scum and lynching GL was so important to her that she was willing to out herself, or she's town and scum really didn't want an X in Beeboy's square for some reason? Or she's town and scum really don't want an O in CSF's square?

[Blair]

It was effectively 50/50 if we would lynch Beeboy or GuiltyLion today assuming scum killed Celeste. They deviated from that to avoid that coin flip.

[GuiltyLion]

It was effectively 50/50 if we would lynch Beeboy or GuiltyLion today assuming scum killed Celeste. They deviated from that to avoid that coin flip.

no it wasn't, we were always lynching CSF/Blair today, likely CSF imo

[Clover Ebi]

I'm pretty sure we gave the impression it was CSF. Guilty/Blair was up for debate but CSF for sure.

[maxwell]

Yeah, again if scum were in the upper left corner it was a virtually guaranteed win, there were more than enough votes willing to go on CSF to guarantee she'd be the lynch, blocking that would be a straight up toss. If you're actually town you need to stop the nonsense and give real reads although I suspect it's already over for scum and this'll be game.

[Blair]

I'm speaking from the board here. Not whatever specific plans were suggested yesterday - scum don't know if those would have actually been followed any better than we do.

To put it more accurately, I suppose I should have said "50/50 between killing off the bottom row or the rightmost column" but the idea is similar.

Everyone only reads my posts or talks to me at all to nitpick without engaging any of my ideas in good faith. I'd chalk it up to a me problem if this were my typical experience on this site, but it definitely isn't, so there's something more behind the thread dynamics in this game.

[Blair]

Best I can tell, A {CSF | T-Bone/Max/Clover} scum team is the only solve that benefits from this kill. It's the only way that they could reliably salvage a 5p lylo that was looking increasingly unlikely for them.

Looking at the three of them, T-Bone seems unlikely because this interaction would be a really strange SvS event in a game where scum have day talk:

I think lynching a corner is still optimal though

Vote: Dunnstral

why this?

CSF/Clover makes this another really awkward (these posts were consecutive) SvS:

Oh I should VOTE: GuiltyLion

VOTE: GuiltyLion
I kind of agree. @Guilty; if you pointed out so many things, why did you default to voting for 2 people who haven't shown up?

I know everyone is tired of me ringing this bell (I'm even a little disappointed that investigating this avenue only changed one of my reads), but this post really feels like Maxwell was waiting things out to see if momentum might shift away from Dunnstral before it became evident that that was where town was headed and he eventually jumped in and starting pushing it to blend in:

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and lynch the corner opposite to them. Town can direct the kills from that point forward so that only those 2 players survive.

why aren't you voting Dunnstral?

Actually don't terribly see a need to vote at this point in time, I think my words are enough to get my views across and the vote should be more about the optimal play rather than anything else. I still find dunnstral somewhat suspicious, although his posts on the last page are a little bit better, and lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool especially when it seems most of the game doesn't townread me. I'm perfectly okay with putting myself in line for elimination as it means I'll flip town and hopefully my views will be trusted - There's 7 other players and I should at least be able to pick out 2 as town.

I really don't see a scenario here where GuiltyLion is scum and I don't see a scenario where CSF isn't scum (if she's town then the scum team did this for no reason because the outcomes for all other possible pairings are the same, I think?)

Am I missing anything?

[Clover Ebi]

Maybe this was more to get rid of beeboy than anything else? If you look at things we're basically getting the same result: A lylo with the top left corner. Really this just seems like a trap to make us go off the path. It makes a lot of sense if scum is in GL/Blair but even if the scum really is in T-bone/Max/Myself we were agreeing to this f3 in the first place right? So really the paranoia and overthinking just seems like what mafia want.

I think the best play here is Guilty and Blair trying to give reads on the top left corner and who they think scum could be.

[Celeste]

Worth noting it's possible we would have eliminated beeboy today, in which case mafia-Cat would be forced to shoot herself, leading to a forced lynch on Clover. How do you feel about cats, Clover Ebi; you're not too attached to them, are you?

[Clover Ebi]

Not at all Miss. I've been fine with them dying for ages.

[Clover Ebi]

That's a pretty interesting theory but I don't think it's very practical or needed by scum me don't ya think?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

From my perspective there almost certainly has to be scum in the right column

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Maybe this was more to get rid of beeboy than anything else? If you look at things we're basically getting the same result: A lylo with the top left corner. Really this just seems like a trap to make us go off the path. It makes a lot of sense if scum is in GL/Blair but even if the scum really is in T-bone/Max/Myself we were agreeing to this f3 in the first place right? So really the paranoia and overthinking just seems like what mafia want.

I think the best play here is Guilty and Blair trying to give reads on the top left corner and who they think scum could be.

Who do you think it is- tbone or max?

[Celeste]

Well, you certainly wouldn't mind keeping me around for an extra couple of days if you were mafia, now, would we, Clover? Don't worry, I'm just examining the odds.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Worth noting it's possible we would have eliminated beeboy today, in which case mafia-Cat would be forced to shoot herself, leading to a forced lynch on Clover. How do you feel about cats, Clover Ebi; you're not too attached to them, are you?

I kind of doubt beeboy would have been lynched over me today

[Celeste]

Does anyone object to me just voting GL

I forgot to reply to this, my dear Cats.

Are you worried about what those around you might think? Do not concern yourself with them. As long as we are satisfied with how we make our own actions, that is all that matters. Please keep that in mind as you vote GuiltyLion, as it is the only sensible option you have to make as either alignment.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Thanks for the moral boost Celeste. Everyone is so keen to find my supposed partner, it’s making me feel like an unwanted cat

——
I think last night’s nk makes a bit more sense if scum have been distancing all game and setting up for 3p lylo

[Clover Ebi]

Well, you certainly wouldn't mind keeping me around for an extra couple of days if you were mafia, now, would we, Clover? Don't worry, I'm just examining the odds.

As long as I stay in the B tier you can stay all game in my eyes.

[GuiltyLion]

Hey Blair

383 is a really good post and I've realized there's no reason to treat you as scum at this point so I'll try to start working with you again

I think you're a little too quick to rule out T-Bone/CSF as a team based on that interaction. "Why did you vote the way you did" is a super softball distancing question that Kanna might have just thrown out of her own accord without talking with T-Bone. And I think T-Bone's play today feels a little too agenda-y or cognizant of the fact that he needs to set up for LYLO. Why is he trying to raise questions/confusion around the fact that I am the best possible Lynch today? Why did he refer to me as "either confirmed town or scum"? He's sinking in my reads quickly!

I agree with you though that the Clover/Kanna interaction is super awkward and unlikely SvS. Upon review, Clover is def town.

I think my problems with your maxwell points/cases all ultimately wind up to - you seem to assume maxwell is scum and then write the narrative explaining his play from there, while ignoring the equally plausible explanations for his posts as town. You did it again in 383. When I read maxwell he just strikes me as genuinely motivated to solve, his reasoning and trajectories in his pushes and votes feel consistent and earnest, and the timing of when he makes reads doesn't seem to suit an agenda. I'm really not seeing him as scum, especially given his response to you yesterday in 312.

[GuiltyLion]

like, let's start with maxwell townreading rozyroz and then myself in 113 and 122. We know now that for all intents and purposes, both slots are town. At the time both were also fairly viable mislynches.

Do you really think it's more likely that this was all a grand scum ploy to ensure that the opposite corner is lynched first? When he was still volunteering to lynch himself and later still pushing for rozyroz/beeboy lynch? Why does he make post 297 as scum with CSF? A Maxwell/CSF team has a clear path to winning this game after the Dunn Lynch -> kill Celeste, and then go all in for the Blair lynch - which I had already said I was open to! Why does he steer away from that option prior to the end of D1, and then overnight take the extra step to kill beeboy instead?

I think if you're paranoid, you can write up an agenda/narrative where he's a scum mastermind, but I think the simpler explanation is just that maxwell is town

[GuiltyLion]

Clover, I will also engage you on this front:

If I can show you many, many, many, town games where I, as town, pressure people within the first 3 pages for "reaches" or molehills, and additionally

get flak

for doing so much like you are doing here, will you concede that your point is NAI? Because I am confident that a simple meta search will back me up here

Obligatory meta is trash post.

I also want to rewind back to a T-Bone post that pinged me at the time, but I didn't think was worth pushing on, until now it's clear that we should try to solve in Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover

This feels a really disconnected reply to me, and here's why:

a) I agree that the way meta is used haphazardly across the site is trash and often useless

b) However, here I was making a very narrow/specific argument. Clover was scumreading me for making reachy pushes in early game. I was pointing out that I have a history of doing this as town, and a history of being scum read for doing so as well. My point was that if I can show times where I've done this as town, it's NAI. This is a narrow and justified use of meta IMO - to show that something someone thinks is indicative is actually not indicative.

c) T-Bone doesn't engage with that head-on in any direct or nuanced way, he just throws out an easy catchphrase. Further, why say this, how does it align with his read on me? He doesn't push me as scum or town early game, he's kinda null/wishy-washy on me, so what was the point of jumping in like this?

[Blair]

Why does he make post 297 as scum with CSF?

On the other hand, this would be a very easy post to make if they had already decided they were killing Beeboy and making this route unattractive Day 2.

You raise some fair points, I just can't see Clover/CSF though so if Maxwell is Town then T-Bone has to be scum unless you're some sort of weird scum martyr just trying to get CSF to lylo.

CSF is conf-scum though, no?

P-edit: Yeah, that was a weak rebuttal in context.

[Blair]

CSF/T-Bone and CSF/Maxwell are the only solves that make sense to me at this point. I'm definitely tunneling on Max, I'm just not sure if that should automatically make me wrong.

You seem to be zeroing in on CSF/T-Bone, which if I squint a little, I can see.