Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[Blair]

Serious Question (and yes I know this prolongs my own life by a phase) - What's the worst way things could go wrong if we did the thing scum seem to be trying to stop us from doing anyway, and lynch the conf-scum today?

[T-Bone]

Clover, I will also engage you on this front:

If I can show you many, many, many, town games where I, as town, pressure people within the first 3 pages for "reaches" or molehills, and additionally

get flak

for doing so much like you are doing here, will you concede that your point is NAI? Because I am confident that a simple meta search will back me up here

Obligatory meta is trash post.

I also want to rewind back to a T-Bone post that pinged me at the time, but I didn't think was worth pushing on, until now it's clear that we should try to solve in Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover

This feels a really disconnected reply to me, and here's why:

a) I agree that the way meta is used haphazardly across the site is trash and often useless

b) However, here I was making a very narrow/specific argument. Clover was scumreading me for making reachy pushes in early game. I was pointing out that I have a history of doing this as town, and a history of being scum read for doing so as well. My point was that if I can show times where I've done this as town, it's NAI. This is a narrow and justified use of meta IMO - to show that something someone thinks is indicative is actually not indicative.

c) T-Bone doesn't engage with that head-on in any direct or nuanced way, he just throws out an easy catchphrase. Further, why say this, how does it align with his read on me? He doesn't push me as scum or town early game, he's kinda null/wishy-washy on me, so what was the point of jumping in like this?

Meta is (still) trash.

[GuiltyLion]

What's the worst way things could go wrong if we did the thing scum seem to be trying to stop us from doing anyway, and lynch the conf-scum today?

the worst case is if we're wrong on CSF and she's town, then it's auto-loss with Celeste NK unless I am scum, which I'm not

[Blair]

How is CSF town here, though? If CSF is town then scum gave up the middle and left a confirmed townie alive for no change in their own circumstances at all?

[T-Bone]

I know you want to break down my reaction to the meta-argument as some grand thing, but I dismiss meta both as A) a meme, because it's funny to me and B) because self-meta is actually awful and is not something to be taken seriously! (so I don't!) C) someone who posts meta is trash doesn't really need to explain further since the sentence says it all! D) it is literally the least important post of all my posts in this game lol E) I can't believe I had to go to E to explain this!

I want your thoughts on LyLo, not a defense of why you think meta is valid (or why the way you applied it is valid). You can think that. I don't care. If you and Blair are not scum, then tomorrow is LyLo and your thoughts as to who is scum remaining among the 4 of us is what matters!

[Blair]

Meta is (still) trash.

The way it is usually used (as a scum or town tell), yes. He was offering meta as a null tell, though, which is pretty much the only legitimate application of meta.

If your argument is "This is evidence because GuiltyLion would do this as scum" then "I would also do it as town, here is proof" is a valid rebuttal.

[Blair]

If you and Blair are not scum, then tomorrow is LyLo and your thoughts as to who is scum remaining among the 4 of us is what matters!

PoE is: {CSF | Max / T-Bone}

[T-Bone]

uhhhh Clover buddy

[T-Bone]

Meta is (still) trash.

The way it is usually used (as a scum or town tell), yes. He was offering meta as a null tell, though, which is pretty much the only legitimate application of meta.

If your argument is "This is evidence because GuiltyLion would do this as scum" then "I would also do it as town, here is proof" is a valid rebuttal.

I was making no argument was the point, actually. Because meta is trash!

[Blair]

uhhhh Clover buddy

In what universe does {CSF / Clover} make 66 and 67?

[T-Bone]

The universe in which you think that they cannot be scum together, and that's the point?

[Blair]

Meta = Bad

WIFOM = Brilliant

[maxwell]

Serious Question (and yes I know this prolongs my own life by a phase) - What's the worst way things could go wrong if we did the thing scum seem to be trying to stop us from doing anyway, and lynch the conf-scum today?

Even assuming a CSF scum flip, potential outcomes after are:

celeste shot - > GL lynch forced - > blair shot forced
This assumes both GL/blair are town. functionally it's no different from what happens if we vote GL today, but takes away the IC a day earlier (I'm not sure I care that much).

T-Bone shot - > my lynch forced - > celeste shot forced
me shot - > T Bone lynch forced - > celeste shot
Assumes both T-Bone and I are town, gives mafia a GL/clover/blair threeway.

GL shot - > celeste lynch forced - me shot
Basically the nightmare scenario? Assumes GL is town (which, come on, of course he is at this point) and leaves a T-bone/Clover/Blair 3-way and that's basically a toss-up, I think second scum would want that scenario.

[Blair]

The Celeste shot is probably the worst from where I'm standing, because it leaves a lylo with more than one of my PoE alive. But since I'm dead in that scenario, my PoE is less important anyway so maybe that doesn't matter.

[maxwell]

I don't think Kanna was making a high level play there to make people think she wouldn't sheep her partner but it's not implausible to be a low level play where she just doesn't care how sheeping her partner looks. Most likely scenario is not teammates, though.

The Celeste shot is probably the worst from where I'm standing, because it leaves a lylo with more than one of my PoE alive. But since I'm dead in that scenario, my PoE is less important anyway so maybe that doesn't matter.

Well, scum are going to take whatever the best shot for them is regardless, it's basically a no-win scenario for town.

[T-Bone]

Would someone humor me for a moment? Let's say GL or Blair flip scum. What is our best lynch tactically? Bone, Maxwell, Clover, Celeste, or CSF?

[maxwell]

If there's a scum flip on the right side, it's town autowin and I'm the optimal lynch to set up a trap where last scum kills one of celeste/clover and we lynch the other for a tic-tac-toe win, which isn't very exciting but it means we were going to win after day 1 anyway. We'll see, though. Not so sure of that anymore.

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 2.1

maxwell ​	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
beeboy ​ O	Cat Scratch Fever ​	Dunnstral ​ X

Not Voting

(7): GuiltyLion, T-Bone, maxwell, Blair, Cat Scratch Fever, Celeste, Clover Ebi

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-19 23:22:00)

[maxwell]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

I'm not sure I have anything else to say today.

[Blair]

Is there a reason we shouldn't lynch Celeste today, forcing scum to nightkill Max, then we lynch T-Bone (Both of CSF's potential partners die this way!) then scum kills me and Guilty and Clover lynch CSF for the win? What am I missing?

[GuiltyLion]

@Blair, lynching conftown is completely pointless if we can avoid it, also:

lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

while the beeboy NK makes you unlikely scum, an argument like that is exactly what scum!Blair would say, so we can't trust it... also there's not really a reason to want to extend your life in this setup? why are you trying to change the plan?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

love it when I can play to wincon by self-voting

[GuiltyLion]

Is there a reason we shouldn't lynch Celeste today, forcing scum to nightkill Max, then we lynch T-Bone (Both of CSF's potential partners die this way!) then scum kills me and Guilty and Clover lynch CSF for the win? What am I missing?

I mean I guess you want it this way so you can have both maxwell and T-Bone flip, but idk, I trust Clover/T-Bone to win it if it comes down to 3p and maxwell's the scum. I still think it's T-Bone

[Blair]

I want it because both partner picks for CSF flip and we walk into lylo with caught!scum

I die either way so I'm not sure what you're implying

[Blair]

CSF is conf-scum, this strategy lynches one of her plausible partners and kills the other, then brings us to lylo with conf-scum.

Alternatively we just straight up lynch conf-scum today, but then we no longer control the game board.

VOTE: Celeste

The problem with lynching GuiltyLion today (aside from him being lock town) is we go into 5 player lylo where we either roll the dice on Maxwell/T-Bone or lynch conf-scum CSF, in which case we roll the dice the next day in 3p lylo.