Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[GuiltyLion]

I die either way so I'm not sure what you're implying

unless it's a CSF/Blair team, in which case you win

[Blair]

Good thing it isn't!

[Blair]

It feels like a waste to let lylo become a toss-up when we already have one conf-scum.

[Blair]

I've been saying since RVS (back when I was being scummy for talking strategy, apparently) that the goal is to lynch in such a way that we force scum to nightkill our PoE for us. That's what this plan does. Let them narrow the field for us so all we have to do is lynch CSF in 3p lylo.

[T-Bone]

Except that you are most definitely in our PoE and lynching GuiltyLion (who is also there) accomplishes that! Only Celeste doesn't need to be eliminated.

[Blair]

Why is GuiltyLion still in your PoE?

In fact, why do you keep insisting on expanding our PoE as wide as possible? You have Clover in there, too.

[Blair]

I'm trying to game solve, sorry I stepped on your "everyone but the IC and myself" PoE.

[Blair]

At some point we have to commit to actual reads and make decisions based on those reads. We can set ourselves up in such a way that we definitely win if our PoE contains the scum team, and of course we'll lose if it doesn't. Casting a wide net where everyone but the innocent child is still part of our solve doesn't accomplish that.

[GuiltyLion]

but aren't you essentially advocating for making the toss-up decision

now

, with less info, than in 3p LYLO, with the most info possible?

[Blair]

What's the toss up? You're town, Clover's town, we force T-Bone and Maxwell eliminations and lynch CSF in lylo.

Unless you see a scenario where CSF is town here, I don't see a toss up.

[Blair]

If you believe CSF/Blair is what's happening, then what sort of plan was this?

From my perspective there almost certainly has to be scum in the right column

Does anyone object to me just voting GL

The nightkill pushes us into lynching GuiltyLion, then CSF calls for lynching GuiltyLion, and you're positing that I could be scum with her and the brilliant plan here was... what, exactly?

An excerpt from CSF/Blair Universe's Scum PT:

Blair:

Shoot! They lynched Dunnstral, we are doomed! What do we DO?!

CSF:

I know! Let's kill Beeboy. That way they their plan to lynch me tomorrow will be foiled!

Blair:

But won't that just force them to lynch the right column, bringing about my imminent doom? How do we prevent my imminent doom?

CSF:

We could push for a Celeste lynch!

Blair:

Hmm, maybe. This whole plan really incriminates you, though. How do we prevent town from noticing that?

CSF:

I know! You could call me conf-scum all day and build your entire PoE around me being scum!

Blair:

Uh- okay... so we're just straight up bussing you to save me, then? I guess that might work... How do we prevent them from just lynching GuiltyLion to force a nightkill on me, though?

CAF:

Hmmm... I've got it! I'll advocate for exactly that and not support your plan at all!

Blair:

...I hate you.

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno, while I don't think it's Blair/CSF because this would be a really bad kill for that team, I also don't want to be ruling out teams on the basis of 'that team wouldn't make this NK' because that's exactly the kind of WIFOM which would be such a purpose of an oddball NK.

I don't see what's wrong with just playing it safe and ruling out any scum!GL/scum!Blair possibilities while keeping our conftown alive, then lynching into CSF and letting Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover evaluate the game in 3p based on all of eachother's contributions so far.

You might be right that your way is safer

given that you are town

, but since I can't know that for certain and I had plenty of reason for feeling you as scum on D1, I'm resistant to take an alternative route.

[GuiltyLion]

like, for example, you're kinda just defaulting to clearing me now given that I am the best lynch today, but what if I were scum with someone in maxwell/T-Bone? Why are you not concerned at all with that possibility - we would win given your plan

[Blair]

I don't see what's wrong with just playing it safe and ruling out any scum!GL/scum!Blair possibilities while keeping our conftown alive, then lynching into CSF and letting Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover evaluate the game in 3p based on all of eachother's contributions so far.

1. Because we can already use our deductive reasoning and general mental faculties to rule out scum!GL and scum!Blair, given that CSF is scum (which she evidently is).

2. Because I would not envy Clover in that lylo.

[Blair]

like, for example, you're kinda just defaulting to clearing me now given that I am the best lynch today, but what if I were scum with someone in maxwell/T-Bone? Why are you not concerned at all with that possibility - we would win given your plan

Because CSF is obvscum - do you disagree? Also kind of awkward that you're trying to sell me on you!scum

[maxwell]

Lol yeah okay, I don't need to see any more, vote on guiltylion today means a town autowin

[Clover Ebi]

It is only now dawning on me that atm I'm basically getting thrown into a LYLO with T-bone and Max with likely the hammer and that's not a choice I can confidently make atm. So reads on Max and T-bone would be wonderful from everyone right now.

[Clover Ebi]

Is it better to lynch someone we all think is scum right now? Like if CSF is somehow town we just accept that we lose that right? Or is that not a stance we should take? Because if you guys are more confident in Blair figuring out something then I am you can force a Blair/T-bone/CSF f3 (or Celes/T-bone/CSF f3 but I don't think people would be keen to that)

[Clover Ebi]

T-Bone/GL/Blair is also a f3 we can make possible. Say we lynch CSF today mafia can force us to kill 1 of Max/T-bone or the likely option being Celes into GL leaving with a top left f3. Yeah listing these is probably useless at the moment and I should just go start re reading.

[maxwell]

Is it better to lynch someone we all think is scum right now?

In practical terms, no, even if you think me or T-Bone are scum, you'll have opportunity to vote us tomorrow, voting us today loses the IC and in all likelihood the game because GL has to die after the IC shot (and he's clearly town). You could still vote us tomorrow with the added benefit of a blair flip, but like I said I think thi is flipping red, she's trying to divert the lynch today because her dying puts scum in autoloss when it wouldn't make a significant difference as town, hence the vote on the IC

[GuiltyLion]

gonna be obnoxious and continue to quote myself

lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

[T-Bone]

It is only now dawning on me that atm I'm basically getting thrown into a LYLO with T-bone and Max with likely the hammer and that's not a choice I can confidently make atm. So reads on Max and T-bone would be wonderful from everyone right now.

You mean I'm getting thrown into a choice between you and Max.

Back that truck up for a second.

[Clover Ebi]

Is it better to lynch someone we all think is scum right now?

In practical terms, no, even if you think me or T-Bone are scum, you'll have opportunity to vote us tomorrow, voting us today loses the IC and in all likelihood the game because GL has to die after the IC shot (and he's clearly town). You could still vote us tomorrow with the added benefit of a blair flip, but like I said I think thi is flipping red, she's trying to divert the lynch today because her dying puts scum in autoloss when it wouldn't make a significant difference as town, hence the vote on the IC

Thanks for clearing that up for me. It puts my head at ease...for the moment.

It is only now dawning on me that atm I'm basically getting thrown into a LYLO with T-bone and Max with likely the hammer and that's not a choice I can confidently make atm. So reads on Max and T-bone would be wonderful from everyone right now.

You mean I'm getting thrown into a choice between you and Max.

Back that truck up for a second.

I'm pretty sure no one here thinks I'm scum at the moment? But I'm glad you made that comment now than at f3. If you have worries about my slot you should probably address them while we have a day left.

[T-Bone]

Like, I almost want to lynch you now for even suggesting that you'd be the one to decide who gets lynched. town!max or I could also very well decide the same thing. This difference is, despite knowing I'm town, I'm not arrogant enough to think that not only do I need to figure out who the mafia are, but I don't need to prove my worth. I do, because I don't want to get mislynched and lose the game for the town.

[T-Bone]

I'm pretty sure no one here thinks I'm scum at the moment?

Actually yes, now I do. I think you just tried to overplay your hand. I think I townread maxwell more now.