Newbie 2012 - Game Over

[WaltertheDunce10]

VOTE: 72offsuit

I now upon a reread think that last question could be used by scum to change their play in a subtle way.
I would like to know your thinking on the last one and why it is important?
If town, my feeling is that it is a test, but a sloppy one, which, an experienced player would be able to better conduct in a better fashion.
This only adds to my scum read as it gives scum an easy out and ability to adjust.

on another note, Anyone else find it odd that piisirrational popped up answered 72's questions and then dissapeared.

Was this prompted by TJ's post or were you already troubled by the lurker question?

Tj alerted me to that fact, and I did a reread on that to think why that question would be there?
I have also checked 72's posts in previous Mafia games onsite but could not find another instance where he asked this question.
So 72 what game did you post this question?

he asked the question in 4 games that I counted, one scum 3 town. I didn't read further into each game but they are newbie 1994, 1987, 1977 and 1986.

K, thanks

[UNOwen]

You and I both don't know this. Maybe scum you wouldn't think that, but you don't know what scum me would think and neither do I.

Well you asked me why scum-you would put a target on their back, I'm answering that scum-you wouldn't think they were putting a target on their back. You can say that's not how scum-you would act but it doesn't really help me because you could be lying.

Do you still think that TTJT is my scum partner? Because I think maybe pii is yours.

No, I no longer think it is likely that you and JT are scum together. I am struggling with his approach to the game but I doubt you would have twice called him out for voting with you if you were partners. The point you make about pi in your next post is a solid observation and not something I had picked up on, I was surprised to see that pi posted a read list as early as page 4 in that game. It would be good to hear his explanation for why he is now playing so passively.

I appreciate that they are now answered, but why did you initially skip over my questions in post 136?

Also:

I have a question for my voters: DoctorPepper and UNOwen

Even though I am a noob to this version of the game and on this forum, it’s pretty normal and common in scumming/wolfing 101 to not bring any undue and unnecessary attention to yourself. It pretty much puts a target on your back. I don’t know the meta of this site yet, but that seems like something that will never change.

So my question is if I was scum what would be the benefit to me and/or my partner (whether they were a noob or experienced) to put such a blatant target on my back and possibly their back for attempting to “protect” me. If there is a benefit I don’t know about, that’s why I’m asking.

What did you have in mind when you talked about a partner protecting you?

[UNOwen]

Well there are many variables to how things can go down. People can have quick turnarounds when wanting to join a wagon. They can go from defending a player to turn on them quick for various reasons. Sometimes when you have suspicions on someone you want to make sure you know where they stand to see if som something can become suspicious turnaround or gradual. So while it's not likely that two scum off wagon would jump into to quicklynch a player, the possibility exists and you want to make sure you cover some ground so it's not so much of a blindside. There also chance that one town one scum or two town decide to quicklynch a player on accident or as a play and it comes out of nowhere.

I'm sorry I'm posting after waking up not too long ago so I hope I'm not jumbling too much and that I've answered your question. I just might not have much time to post later.

I'd consider something like that as good as a confession, so I don't agree that it's a realistic possibility. Thank you for answering though.
When you get the chance I would appreciate an answer to my question in 162 as well.

[UNOwen]

@GuiltyLion

: could you expand on your scum read of Italiano?

[ItalianoVD]

I don't understand what you mean by thumbing your nose in that post Italiano.

And I'm not mirroring your actions. I have my own play and I'm following through on it. If you think it mirrors you it is coincidental. I have not town cleared you either so think I haven't been looking at your posts either. So far I see you as a player who has been out on a bad spot early and is of course paranoid to be lynched day one in both their games. Which is why I can see others saying you are being defensive.

Thank you, I want to clarify my thoughts on this.

Ydrasse while your right the first question isn't really scumhunting, don't we all want to say we solved the game day 1? Bragging rights! That's why I said it's mostly a fun question.

As to the second one, I'm experimenting with RQS and I think it is a valid questions to ask this early in the game. Like I said, I have reasons for it and want to see how well it serves me. And it's not so much relatied to looking back at it down the road. More of a now reason. And directly related to question number 1,

the fun part of question number two for scum would be looking back at engame and having been bold to actually put your partner down here would incredible for them. Bragging rights!

The bolded kind of sounds like a bold scum saying what they're going to do and then doing it, since no one could believe that the scum would be that bold to do it. And then your response sounds a little too gitty. But I just have a vivid imagination and I've been a wolf countless times when playing the wolf variation of this game and I've done bold moves like that before. Anyway, it's probably nothing and I'd rather deal with what's more likely than what's possible.

You know what, I will say I feel he is leaning town as I post this. I normally don't like town reading people because I feel it backfires on me a lot. I just see an excited player early.

What do you mean it backfires on you? How so?

Right now my guess on scum is definetly at minimum one very experience player. (SE or not). How often do newbie games feature two SE scum players?

Interesting. There are 3 SE's in the game (Guilty, Doctor, and 72). Not sure if anyone else has equal or more experience. You've already mentioned you weren't really looking at DoctorPepper anymore, so what are your reads on Guilty and 72?

So far on my questions I don't see answers for
Guiltylion
DrPepper
Italiano
Piisirrational

Just let me know if you have no intentions of answering my questions so I can explain why I did it. Thank you

It seems like the answers would change the deeper into Day 1 we get right, but I don't mind answering it.
If I had to guess the scum team, I'd say UNOwen and piisirrational
If I had to choose a partner I'd have to say 72 or Hobbes (GuiltyLion)

[TheThirteenthJT]

I feel the pii and his inacitity is NAI right now. The way I see it is that he has not caught up. Whether he is just busy irl or doing it purposefully is a coin flip and only he can answer. I would of course like to see him post more.

The reason why I say it's Nai is because he last post quoted very early posts and not recent ones. That would for me make it seem that he is not up to date with the game

As to why he chose to answer 72s question and not post on any other topic idk. I just don't want to really speculate too much on him until he puts out more content. Hopefully soon.

[TheThirteenthJT]

I'm a bit confused here. Doesn't seem like the same question at all.


But I'll answer it. I can't vote two people at once so logic would say push one person until they've satisfied you or not then depending on that push the other. There are more reasons to vote DP first over you. One he was the first to mention the reason for his vote and two he is an SE. I'm sure as an SE he has seen this scenario before. If I can find a game were this happened with him before I can see if they reacted the same or different previously. I was satisfied with my early push on him and next is you on my list.

Yes I agree, you did not understand my point - I was not saying that you'd missed something, but that you hadn't appeared to look at all.
As for your reasons, neither were mentioned previously. What is the significance of the first? Fair enough on the second.

So he brought in the initial suspicion on Italiano. While scum do tend piggyback on a wagon, it's also a possibility for them to drive a wagon. Since he was first to do this, he was first in my list of suspicious people. But like I said I have him out of my top read now so you dwelling on my DrPepper push feels like you are trying to divert away from my suspicion on you.

[TheThirteenthJT]

I don't understand what you mean by thumbing your nose in that post Italiano.

And I'm not mirroring your actions. I have my own play and I'm following through on it. If you think it mirrors you it is coincidental. I have not town cleared you either so think I haven't been looking at your posts either. So far I see you as a player who has been out on a bad spot early and is of course paranoid to be lynched day one in both their games. Which is why I can see others saying you are being defensive.

Thank you, I want to clarify my thoughts on this.

Ydrasse while your right the first question isn't really scumhunting, don't we all want to say we solved the game day 1? Bragging rights! That's why I said it's mostly a fun question.

As to the second one, I'm experimenting with RQS and I think it is a valid questions to ask this early in the game. Like I said, I have reasons for it and want to see how well it serves me. And it's not so much relatied to looking back at it down the road. More of a now reason. And directly related to question number 1,

the fun part of question number two for scum would be looking back at engame and having been bold to actually put your partner down here would incredible for them. Bragging rights!

The bolded kind of sounds like a bold scum saying what they're going to do and then doing it, since no one could believe that the scum would be that bold to do it. And then your response sounds a little too gitty. But I just have a vivid imagination and I've been a wolf countless times when playing the wolf variation of this game and I've done bold moves like that before. Anyway, it's probably nothing and I'd rather deal with what's more likely than what's possible.

You know what, I will say I feel he is leaning town as I post this. I normally don't like town reading people because I feel it backfires on me a lot. I just see an excited player early.

What do you mean it backfires on you? How so?

Right now my guess on scum is definetly at minimum one very experience player. (SE or not). How often do newbie games feature two SE scum players?

Interesting. There are 3 SE's in the game (Guilty, Doctor, and 72). Not sure if anyone else has equal or more experience. You've already mentioned you weren't really looking at DoctorPepper anymore, so what are your reads on Guilty and 72?

So far on my questions I don't see answers for
Guiltylion
DrPepper
Italiano
Piisirrational

Just let me know if you have no intentions of answering my questions so I can explain why I did it. Thank you

It seems like the answers would change the deeper into Day 1 we get right, but I don't mind answering it.
If I had to guess the scum team, I'd say UNOwen and piisirrational
If I had to choose a partner I'd have to say 72 or Hobbes (GuiltyLion)

1 I stated the fun part for both town and mafia. Choosing to signal one over the other is very selective. I wanted to give pii a chance to respond but people keep referencing my questions so here is a short response about then. Yes I am baiting answers, town are more likely to feel relaxed and answer a question like that why scum tend to believe everything is a play and become paranoid and overthink more. A simple answer to that question would not hurt and if you want to grill me on later sure. In a scum mindset you would wifom yourslef. Overthink and possibly slip. That's a quick summary of that.

2 When I town read someone it's hard for me to untown read them later. It can make me stubborn to see others points on why they could be scum.

3 Neither is currently a lynch I want to pursue. They seem like strong town players if town. Mislynching one of them could devastate us on subsequent days. I have been trying to meta them when I get chance to see if they have an obvious tells. This dosnst mean to not look in their direction as day one goes on.

[ItalianoVD]

Well you asked me why scum-you would put a target on their back, I'm answering that scum-you wouldn't think they were putting a target on their back. You can say that's not how scum-you would act but it doesn't really help me because you could be lying.

That's fair.

No, I no longer think it is likely that you and JT are scum together. I am struggling with his approach to the game but I doubt you would have twice called him out for voting with you if you were partners. The point you make about pi in your next post is a solid observation and not something I had picked up on, I was surprised to see that pi posted a read list as early as page 4 in that game. It would be good to hear his explanation for why he is now playing so passively.

Why were you surprised about his list? And what

next post

are you referring to?

I appreciate that they are now answered, but why did you initially skip over my questions in post 136?

I'll elaborate on 119 & 121 in a moment, just wanna get everything out.

This is what I wrote in 136. I wanted to answer those questions separately from the rest as it was more involved with the quotes and whatnot, etc.

What did you have in mind when you talked about a partner protecting you?

What I meant was if I was scum and put the target on my back like that, anyone who tried to defend me, like it happened in this game, would end up being suspects if I did flip scum.

[UNOwen]

So he brought in the initial suspicion on Italiano. While scum do tend piggyback on a wagon, it's also a possibility for them to drive a wagon. Since he was first to do this, he was first in my list of suspicious people. But like I said I have him out of my top read now so you dwelling on my DrPepper push feels like you are trying to divert away from my suspicion on you.

I'm dwelling on it because I want to understand your thought process and you had not made clear a lot of it.

[UNOwen]

Why were you surprised about his list? And what

next post

are you referring to?

The only read he has given this game is on DoctorPepper, so it was a bit of a contrast. Next post refers to 190, where you talk about his activity level compared to the previous game.

This is what I wrote in 136. I wanted to answer those questions separately from the rest as it was more involved with the quotes and whatnot, etc.

Ok, that's reasonable.

[Micc]

piisirrational has requested replacement.

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm I'm feeling like this game is gonna be a hard one, I kinda got gut town vibes from Italiano's page 8 posting. I'm gonna respond to stuff directed at me, then prob reread in full and see if anything new stands out.

UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

Furthermore, I dislike your concern about how you are being read by others (walter), it gives me the impression of a mindset of scum-survivalism.

This is a bad point.

Townies should be concerned with how people view them too, I don't think being worried about why you are being scumread is scum-indicative. Also, I may be misunderstanding or missing something, but in that quoted post I think he's asking Italiano about his read on Walter, not worried about how Walter is reading him

??

See TTJT's response. He confirms he does ask Italiano for both their read on walter AND on TTJT (himself)

I think we're miscommunicating or not understanding each other here.

It looked to me like in 82, TTJT was asking Italiano for his reads on both TTJT and Walter. Then it looked to me like in your 181, you were saying that TTJT was worried about how Walter was reading him, the "concern about how you are being read by others (Walter)" part. So I thought you were saying TTJT was worried about how Walter was reading him, which I didn't think had ever happened.

Your latest reply here suggests you think the same thing, so I'm not sure I understand the original post 150, why did you mention Walter in parenthesis like that?

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - sorry not 181, 150

[GuiltyLion]

nah mate, that's not how probability works haha. If I roll a die, either I could roll a 1 or I could not, that doesn't mean these things are 50/50. Your mistake is to say we are working with "no information", townies are already working with information in that 6 other players are town and 2 are scum.

So for any given post right now, it's more likely to be town posting than scum posting.

Yeah I get this, but I guess my question is what math are you using? I'm trying to understand your 75/25 example.

better explanation how? do you want me to talk in greater detail about each player, or one in particular?

Yeah, it doesn't have to be a book, just a quick synopsis on why you think those three are town please.

Basically, from a town point of view, there are 8 other players, 6 are town and 2 are scum. So if you pick a slot at random, there's 75% odds that it's town. That's where the numbers come from, hopefully that made it more clear? (for scum point of view this doesn't hold up, because 7 of the slots are town and 1 is their buddy, but also they already know who is who).

What I was also trying to say was, based on these prior odds, a lot of things people think or argue are scum tells really aren't scumtells at all, they're just noise. The vast majority of posts in most games are coming from town. The best scumtells IMO are behaviors/patterns that

don't

come from town, as opposed to things that come from town sometimes and come from scum sometimes, and I try to apply this reasoning to when I'm looking at whether I think a certain post is more likely coming from scum or town.

[GuiltyLion]

ah and I forgot to reply to the other part

keeping in mind that these were early game townreads and there's more to work off of now:

Ydrasse - I'm in the process of rethinking how strongly I originally townread this slot, but I thought the way she followed up on my pressure on UNOwen in 35 and 38 felt agendaless -> instead of trying to escalate conflict or push players, it felt like she was approaching things with a perspective to understand.

DoctorPepper - took strong initiative in pressure people early and I thought the pressure hit town notes of "something potentially suspicious" without going too far into exaggeration/embellishment. Also thought the emotion about being discredited in 50 was genuine

UNOwen - I already answered this one, but he didn't feel defensive in his replies to me on page 2 and I thought the reasoning for voting Italiano was earnest, even if it wasn't presented at first.

anyway that was my reasoning at the time, but I'm in the process of re-evaluating, so stay tuned

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion

: could you expand on your scum read of Italiano?

I mostly really didn't like how he formed his scumreads around those voting him in 72, and I thought his defense of "what would be the benefit of putting a target on my back" was scummy because it's clear he didn't think it would put a target on his back regardless of his alignment, otherwise he wouldn't do it, as you also pointed out in 201.

I also got the vibe that he was buddying me in 81

[GuiltyLion]

so I've just quickly skimmed/reread through the game

my opening tack here was trying to sort a few newbies, mainly TTJT and Italiano, cause I didn't hit an early townread from either and I tend to find newbie scum are easy to catch with a little pushing and prodding. However, as they posted more their thought processes became more clear to me and I don't especially think either is scum, which left me feeling a little aimless and wanting to reset a bit and reread.

Overall, I still townread Ydrasse, UNOwen, DoctorPepper as well - it's definitely possible that one is competent scum fooling me, but even when I went back to see if I could find avenues to where they're potentially playing to a scum agenda, nothing stood out to me.

I townread Walter as well. I think he's engaging in the game in a loose and carefree way which is difficult for scum, especially newbie scum, to emulate effectively. And I think the suspicion on 72 is genuine because there was not a ton of explicit support there and 72 strikes me as a slot that would be intimidating to push for a mislynch if you know he's town and you're not experienced/adept as scum.

which leaves piisirrational and 72offsuit. I scumread both of these slots and would currently be fine with a lynch on either.

Let's start with pi - I think Italiano makes a good point about pi's lack of activity, and I think the posts pi

did

leave us with are very inoffensive and meant to blend in. His take on Italiano in 65 is pure hedge, he doesn't scumread or townread Italiano on it (giving flexibility to take a read in either direction as the situation develops), he sheeps the reasoning Ydrasse already gave, and it's ultimately a post that neither develops any reads on any of the players involved, and also will not cause conflict with anybody in the situation.

It's made worse by the fact that he shades DoctorPepper in 138 only

after

being prompted -> if these thoughts were there at the time of 65, he chose not to post them, so to me it seems likely that pi only came up with this reasoning because they had to after the fact.

139 has much of the same problems as 65. Simply telling people stuff is NAI and not making any effort to instead highlight things that

are

AI, or generate content. It's classic newbie scum posting.

VOTE: piisirrational slot

As for 72, I imagine this is a harder sell as he strikes me as a competent player and I can definitely empathize with why some of you townread him. With him, it's more of a process of elimination from my townreads and an

absence

of towniness than any clear scum-motive to his posting. 72 is making an effort to ask questions and give thoughts and participate in conversation, but none of them ever gave me good feels in the way that most of the other players posts have. I recognize that's a vague and holistic assessment, I'm not sure how to explain it convincingly, but I want it noted down for future reference. I can also call out a couple of minor things which aren't especially scummy on their own, but together serve as circumstantial evidence that makes me feel validated in this PoE read:

- I only paid attention to this on reread, but he calls out Walter for the "greet the thread tell" (46) while seemingly missing that Ydrasse also greeted the thread (7). I think if he was genuinely scouting for this tell in RVS, he would have noticed that both players did it. Especially because when he voted Walter in post 12 he didn't mention the tell, he only brought it up later. That feels more likely to be scum adding justifications to their vote after the fact than town who noticed it to begin with. Props to Owen who called him out on this in 57, and I don't think 72 ever gave an explanation for it - which he did promise in 104. Let's hear that explanation now?

- I brought this up already, but I really didn't like the implication in 150 that TTJT was scummy for worrying about how he's perceived. Sure, it's survivalistic in nature, but both town or scum players generally want to survive and understand how they're being read by other players in the game. The idea of "scum"-survivalism specifically is doing a lot of legwork to mask the fact that 72 isn't actually explaining why TTJT asking for reads on himself is more likely to be scum behavior than town behavior.

- Given that I find piisirational decent odds of scum, I'm looking for people who haven't paid any attention to pi or put any pressure there. 72 has not once mentioned his play in this game at all. This alone is not scum-indicative - I myself also haven't mentioned pi up to this point! (but I'm doing it now!) - but if we see a red flip on that slot I'd be very wary of anyone who didn't engage with or mention him in any substantive way, and 72 fits that profile.

[WaltertheDunce10]

I agree,
VOTE: piisirrational slot

[TheThirteenthJT]

I agree,
VOTE: piisirrational slot

What made you vote pii now? You had a chance earlier and now it seems like you were hoping not to be the first on the wagon.

Also should we be wagoning this now that they've asked for replacement? I guess I kind of feel bad for whoever replaces starting off in such a bad spot. I would at least wait for them to post personally lol.

[GuiltyLion]

We don't need to like run them up to immediate threat of hammer or anything but I like putting the replacement under fire! makes it scary as scum and I think people understand that's the risk of replacing in.

[Ydrasse]

i don't think that wagoning the slot is inherently a bad idea just because someone's gonna replace into it.

however, my poe still includes italiano as a potential solve; rereading his iso (b/c of their self-vote from yesterday), his only mention of pii before they started adding pii into their solve was 81 where they townread them. and then they come back to that slot in 188 with a scumread.

i think that what pinged me about this was that it came after italiano self-voting. while i think that frustration is within a vacuum nai, that he had pressure on him and then turned to a self-vote after feels very ate-y to me. the vibe i got was that it was a bit dramatic (that being "i've tried to no avail.") before it was being brushed off and he replaced his vote on his scumread and jumped back in. it feels as if the pii scumread of convenience because italiano doesn't interact with the content of the few posts themselves.

supporting the idea that italiano could theoretically do this as scum is 204, in which he says he's been in wolf games before this and has done bold moves which to me reads as a dissonance between something i pointed out in 79 and 91, where he asserts that he is a new player to this sort of stuff. i think that while there is not a 1:1 between all versions of mafia and italiano is new to this format, i feel in particular 91 feels a bit wifomy having 204 to read now.

that being said, i could see pii as scum despite this, though without more to judge i don't think i'm sold entirely on the idea. it's possible that italiano was frustrated, if they are scum with pii, that their partner has been inactive thus far and finds it easier to bus them at this point.

pii's posts were nondescript to me and i don't feel that i can say much more on the slot until someone replaces into it and becomes active.

VOTE: ItalianoVD

[WaltertheDunce10]

I agree,
VOTE: piisirrational slot

What made you vote pii now? You had a chance earlier and now it seems like you were hoping not to be the first on the wagon.

Also should we be wagoning this now that they've asked for replacement? I guess I kind of feel bad for whoever replaces starting off in such a bad spot. I would at least wait for them to post personally lol.

Guilty made some good points that I agreed with enough to think they may be scum.
Plus whoever replaces him will have to respond in some way.
I also think that lynching piis at this point is a good one.
For one, if he is town scum lose the ability to kill a lurker and leave us in the dark.
This kill has to be used on someone where something is revealed.
If he is scum then that is even better.
That was my thinking in voting.

[72offsuit]

72's UVC:

ItalianoVD (3) - DoctorPepper, UNOwen, Ydrasse
TheThirteenthJT (1) - 72offsuit
UNOwen (2) - TheThirteenthJT, ItalianoVD
piisirrational (2) - WaltertheDunce10, GuiltyLion

Not Voting (1) - piisirrational

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in 6 days, 19 hours, 27 minutes.

Please correct me if I'm wrong