Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[lilith2013]

i don’t really understand why you think scum would want there to be only one kill?

[lilith2013]

isn’t more town deaths better from their pov?

[Menalque]

I very much doubt that scum holstered and I’m not indulging speculation off the back of scum having holstered for X, Y, Z reasons when that’s just anti their wincon in most situations

[Menalque]

There are 3 scenarios in which we have 2 groupscum and 5 in which we don’t, including the two most likely scenarios by probability (again, I’m pretty sure this is what bingle or ddl calculated in C9++ and I think bingle has confirmed again this game that 3 or 4 Ts are the most likely)

[Menalque]

I’m still digesting Maria’s post, but I’m putting it out there now that we’re not basing the lynch today on any spurious notion of slipping and we’re definitely not basing it around the thought that maybe a 2 man scumteam no killed

[Menalque]

I think I’m not townreading A50 based on my own reads actually, but I am by the proxy of skitter and my own tendency to misread him as being scum

[Menalque]

I’m still digesting Maria’s post, but I’m putting it out there now that we’re not basing the lynch today on any spurious notion of slipping and we’re definitely not basing it around the thought that maybe a 2 man scumteam no killed

Actually, sorry — this is a case of me falling into old habits I’m trying to avoid. I’d like to rephrase as “I think it would be very bad to base the lynch today on the thought that... etc etc”

[Bingle]

I think I’m not townreading A50 based on my own reads actually, but I am by the proxy of skitter and my own tendency to misread him as being scum

A50 is town because he keeps being wrong in ways that scum him would have caught and he's not particularly good at faking his logical failures.

For example, a 2 person scumteam actually knows a SK has a 67% chance of existing, a 3 person scumteam without a blocker has a 50% chance of SK, and a 3 person scumteam with a BD actually has a 33% chance to have an SK in the setup.

Town, OTOH, has an exactly 50% chance based on 0 PR claims existing.


As an aside, yes, Mena, the most likely individual situation based on math, what has happened and skitter's claim is actually 4T. Which is 2x Goon and a JOAT. The explanations for a single kill with a two person scumteam are, in decreasing order of likelihood {Skitter SK, Double kill on PB, Holstered Kill). Having looked at the setup, I don't think any of those are particularly likely, which does actually shake my scumread on Maria a bit.

UNVOTE:

I'll probably reevaluate tomorrow and throw a vote down.

[Blake Belladonna]

I agree with MariaR in that if we were both scum, the game would not look anything like this. I'm more competent at parrying scumreads than I am being given credit for, considering that was one of the biggest points of my strategy in both of my completed Blake scumgames.

And if you consider that I very much need a reason to have to be able to endgame solo in this game, and considering that there are players here that both have a tendency to become paranoid of me and/or have directly caught me as scum for not dying in the past, as well as the idea that I can get townread much more easily as scum, suddenly my gameplay makes very little sense.

It was even MariaR herself that said I wasn't playing to endgame as scum.

[Bingle]

There are 3 scenarios in which we have 2 groupscum and 5 in which we don’t, including the two most likely scenarios by probability (again, I’m pretty sure this is what bingle or ddl calculated in C9++ and I think bingle has confirmed again this game that 3 or 4 Ts are the most likely)

For those who are incredible nerds, the seventh row of Pascal's triangle (the bottom row in the picture) represents our odds of numbers of T's perfectly. Each of those is the number of expected outcomes reduced, where the common denominator to transform it into percentages is 128.

Odds we have at least one vig is most easily calculated by going backwards. Find the odds there is no vig, and subtract that from one. It's roughly 17%.

This has been Bingle, weighing in on the least important discussion we've had so far in the thread.

[Blake Belladonna]

Thank you.

[skitter30]

Also, why holster? Well, aside from finding out if there is a SK, scum know we have ONE PR at most. That could be a Tracker, for instance. So they wait and see if they can spot that PR if there were no NKs and turn the game to mountainous and not fear being caught by night action at all.

I dont think they holstered, but i think the scum nk got lost via doc/jk/hider, etc
If lilith is scum there isnt a strongman
And i'm coming around to voting her, i think

[skitter30]

I think i still like my bingle vote, but i am warming to the idea of voting lilith

[Blake Belladonna]

I found a link to this while looking through lilith's ISO to find examples of what I mean. The games are transparently different. Her questioning throughout the game that she linked is far superior to the questioning she has done this game, and it's pretty clear in comparison that she's attempting to solve the game.

Her play this game relative to that one is far more lukewarm and just overly fluffy for content that appears like it should be advancing the game forward.

[Blake Belladonna]

Just as an example:

Spoiler:

Blake Belladonna

What is this for

Penguin is definitely a player in this game.

What does this mean? Are you scumreading him?

i was just scum with her and her entrance feels different than that game
(yes, i'm aware it's one post, but that's why i wrote 'maybe' and i figure sharing these pings at least generates discussion)

what feels different about it?

can we get more votes on penguin please

Looks like datisi is beetlejuicing so i might actually agree with maybescum!datisi

FB is neither serious nor town, PP. Keep up.

Oh? why are you scumreading fb?

This is lilith2013's first catch up set of posts. Note that they are very disjointed from each other and there's no questions here that come from an inner thought process.

A lot of her following posts throughout the next several dozen pages are more commentary on the game and answering questions that are mostly just there. Her catch ups are disjointed and don't go anywhere. Later in the game, she mostly focuses on the pressure placed onto her and does little outside solving, which I would have expected more of considering how much information gathering she made the attempt to do early on in the game.

Her entire mindset doesn't make sense and is not genuine.

[skitter30]

doctor/jk/hider/commuter.......

This slips that if she's scum, scum dont have a joat ^

And yeah @blake i looked and i think i agree with u

VOTE: lilith
L-1 and all that jazz

Plz no hammer without a claim, final thoughts, etc

Today really was quite odd if lilith/ss are svt

[Blake Belladonna]

I think this game is pretty simple at this point, honestly.

I strongly doubt I will ever budge on Almost50 being town.
Menalque is playing outside of his scumrange, if I had to guess.
skitter30 is town via claim.
Datisi is somebody I suspect is just town, but I'd like to reassess this later on to make sure it still makes sense since I suspect he won't be a high priority kill target for a while yet.

I'm warming up to PenguinPower just being town.
I'm warming up to MariaR just being town.
I'm warming up to Something_Smart being more likely town than not.

Firebringer and Bingle can go either way, but I would initially suspect these slots as being the highest likelihood scum slots

[Menalque]

Claim, lilith

[Menalque]

Honestly Maria’s post didn’t do a whole lot for me and I think I still have a preference to lynch there but if skitt and Blake both prefer lilith and I have good reasons to think at least 1 is town then... yeah, can compromise here

Skitt, you never said if you thought I was tunnelling here, I don’t think

[Menalque]

This slips that if she's scum, scum dont have a joat

How does it do that? Scum could just have not used their strongman shot

[Menalque]

Claim, lilith

Also if I see you posting a bunch around site but not claiming I’m treating it as a scumclaim

[Datisi]

hello friends

i have been silently skimming the game but i am not sure if i have anything to say

if someone wants to jam about something/me to look at something i am down

[Datisi]

Do you think I’m tunnelling skitt/dats?

oh yeah this was a question

i don't know.

[skitter30]

Skitt, you never said if you thought I was tunnelling here, I don’t think

i don't particularly think you're tunneled, no

[Something_Smart]

Also if I see you posting a bunch around site but not claiming I’m treating it as a scumclaim

Lol, haven't we been over this before