Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Something_Smart]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

Can you rephrase 3502 using "exactly" where you intend to have it so I know what you're arguing?

it doesn’t really work the same because there’s only two coin flips. let’s say there are 3 coin flips.

the probability of having 2 or more coins flip heads, given that one has already flipped heads, is basically equivalent to ignoring the first coin flip and calculating the probability of one or more heads given that we are now flipping the coin twice. the previous flip has no bearing on the probability of the two other flips. the probability that i am a K, given that skitter is also a K, is equivalent to the probability that i am a K given that skitter is literally any role - the probabilities are independent

I think I see what you're doing.

For the coin example, you're assuming that we have flipped one coin and observed it to be heads, then we flipped the others. This gives different results from just assuming "one of them is heads."

As an example, suppose I have a red coin and a blue coin. If I flip them both, then the probability of getting two heads given that one coin was heads is 1/3. But the probability of getting two heads given that the RED coin was heads are 1/2. It matters whether or not you name the coin that was heads.

And in this case, we have no way of naming WHICH letter skitter got (as in, the first, second, third, etc.). Therefore, the probabilities aren't independent.

[Blake Belladonna]

Thank you for forcing my hand.

I am also a power role. This is why I do not want to be vengekilled.

[skitter30]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

pedit i mean i would have been p amneable to venging mariar ... i didn't say at any point i thought you were ncessarily the best venge

[Blake Belladonna]

I have to assume that I am dead if lilith2013 is lynched, and that is looking almost certain by this point.

[ofrhz]

@ofrhz, just to check, can a bus driver affect a vengeshot?

No

[skitter30]

ah ...
hmmm ....

ok. do we have lilith venge maybe in {mariar, fire, bingle}, then?

[lilith2013]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

pedit i mean i would have been p amneable to venging mariar ... i didn't say at any point i thought you were ncessarily the best venge

i think it's 1 - .9^7

[lilith2013]

meh. skitter who are you SRing the most out of those 3?

[skitter30]

there's 6 possible letters and we need them to not be K (i.e. there are 5 'allowable' values) seven times for there to be no K's

probably bingle

i'm not sure you're flipping scum though

[Menalque]

S_S, how do I do the math on what the likelihood of different setups is?

[Menalque]

because if this is all true we're in 4 T's (or less) with two drawn from V's, right?

[Menalque]

Lilith, did you ever say why Maria was at the top of your PoE? as in, the person you thought was towniest in that group

[skitter30]

i think we'd either get scum or the chance at a vengeshot that can't be interfered with by scum
so i think lynching lilith is probably the best move

[Menalque]

ok:
- i think that lilith's play is probably still scummy
- i think that another k isn't super likely
- if she's scum the venge is irrelevant
- if she's town and lynch her we probably want to optimize the venge
- if she's town blake's unvote is scummy imo

agree with this in it's entirety

[Menalque]

its*

[Menalque]

i think we'd either get scum or the chance at a vengeshot that can't be interfered with by scum
so i think lynching lilith is probably the best move

yes, definitely. I think there's like, no real reason to not lynch a venge once they're outed? because yeah, if they're scum nothing happens and if not then can deal with the other most likely scumslot in the case that they're town (in this case Maria) and provide extra info for going into tomorrow

[Menalque]

namely: if both lilith and Maria are town I think I probably need to check my TRs again

[lilith2013]

i don’t think i really understood the reasons you were scumreading her for?

[skitter30]

why mariar over bingle?

[Menalque]

hang on, let me find the post

[lilith2013]

they're pretty much the same tier to me

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I still don't think MariaR is scum.

[Blake Belladonna]

I still don't think MariaR is scum.

[Menalque]

Spoiler:

I'm quite surprised I haven't been pushed today when I was coming back expecting votes. I'll try to get some energy for this game soon. Mafia rn is just a drag for me

Maybe I can just ask to be vigged since I don't think I make end game here and it's best to get my flip while we can. Or maybe that's just me being tired.
VOTE: Lilith

oh there's the wagon on me. Neat. Back to afk I go

When I see reasons for why I'm scum I'll responded to them.

Let me kill the one and only player in the game townreading me after hard tunneling a VT flip. Yeah, that's not how it works. Honestly people are voting me just for the sake of it. The only one who put some effort into it is Skitter. Let me go look into something before I sleep

Both of our town flips have called me town. Has anyone posted reasons on why I'm scum that aren't skitter? Nope. Almost said something about gobble but that was already proven false. Datsi and you? Not a word. Wanna know the number of players expressing townreads on me? It's 1 or 0. Scum me having no townreads on her? Not a thing.
pedit: Calling PB a weird nk in the first place is odd. But anyway, the skitter talk is proven by her shooting another night so no need to go in on it more. That also wasn't the point. That gets proven tonight or not.

If you can't give a confident reason on why you're voting me that isn't just 'poe' you shouldn't be voting me Mena and considering the amount of time in the day phase it's very easy to go back and rethink your stances. (Like me!)

Mostly this all felt like a really weird chain of progression, from seeming very happy and chilled and talking about how getting your flip would prob be good for the game because you have doubts about you end gaming

To then like explicitly making a thing of not caring about being wagoned and going afk again and just being sort of tongue in cheek

To pushing quite hard for people to justify why exactly they’re scumreading you and trying p hard to survive and get people to reconsider your slot

VOTE COUNT 2.4

lilith2013 [4]:

Menalque [2433], Blake Belladonna [2720], MariaR [2893], PenguinPower [2924]

-- [L-2]

Something_Smart [4]:

skitter30 [2389], Firebringer [2424], Bingle [2740], Almost50 [2887]

-- [L-2]

Not Voting [3]:

Something_Smart, lilith2013, Datisi [2806]

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to hammer.
Day 2 ends in

(expired on 2020-06-30 01:30:00)

Game Notes:

skitter30 regular v/la Fridays and Saturdays

VOTE COUNT 2.4

lilith2013 [4]:

Menalque [2433], Blake Belladonna [2720], MariaR [2893], PenguinPower [2924]

-- [L-2]

Something_Smart [4]:

Firebringer [2424], Bingle [2740], Almost50 [2887], Datisi [2988]

-- [L-2]

Not Voting [3]:

Something_Smart, lilith2013, skitter30 [2990]

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to hammer.
Day 2 ends in

(expired on 2020-06-30 01:30:00)

Game Notes:

skitter30 regular v/la Fridays and Saturdays

@maria I kind of feel like you’re saying that I would never be justified in scumreading you lol

Like if I said I toneread you as scum, you’d say your tone depends on your mood and that that’s not legit or reliable. If I track a progression for you that I think often comes from scum (acting okay with being lynched but then trying to avoid it p strongly through actions) then again it’s because of your mood. I imagine that if you hard defended scum you’d say it was a bad reason to scumread you because you’d be more subtle, and if I called you out for bussing you’d say it would look more convincing. So like I’m happy to dialogue about why you think X is scum but you just saying you’re not scum here because your progression is adequately explained by mood isn’t convincing to me

Oh right, the two VCs: I was also wondering about the gamestate. So if S_S is town then if lilith were scum it would make sense for scum to be trying to lynch him right? Only the pushers there were (skitt, A50, datisi) which is i think a solidly towny core + myself later on. So that theory doesn’t really hold up.

What about if they were TvT, what would scum be doing? Probably gently supporting both wagons if they were both townled onto town, given the strong likelihood of skitt being town. So maybe 2 scum on one and one on the other, meaning all the scum in (you, Blake, PP, bingle, fb) which frankly doesn’t seem awful as a solve

Being scumread is something I'm used to so it's easy for me to tell the logical pushes that make some amount of sense in my mind vs ones I know aren't AI when people think they are. Why do you think I react so calmly under pressure? Because regardless if I'm town or scum it's simple to defend myself. If the game state is so hung up on S_S/Lilith shouldn't that be where most of you are going? Not this Maria flip that if I flip town will just be wasting a lynch and if I'm scum what doors do that open?

No one in this game has expressed a townread on me just others they would lynch first. So if I am scum I'm getting bussed. I would like to believe or at least have enough confidence in my scum ability that I wouldn't be put in that spot in the first place if I was scum. However wifom aside, everyone should really think on how valuable my flip is and how strong that scumread is. Bingle to me is pretty much outted scum because they're smart enough to reach the point I'm bringing to you all right now without having to type it. He's just trying to line up lynches.
pedit: And how is that?
pedit2: I'm not focused on you I'm more focused on trying to survive and prove my points. I have liked your posting a bit more but then that means I need to break into the random townblock that has been made and quite frankly that isn't going to happen with how people see me at the moment.

I don’t think the gamestate is hung up on S_S/lilith and i don’t think it has been for a couple of days. I think it was for a while, and then after _S turned up and towned it up, you got wagoned and then the other votes spread out and the game went quiet. Part of that is because people have been VLA but I could also see this as scum trying to apathy out the game a little. My bigger issue is still: if lilith is scum, why were the people pushing S_S townreads of mine? Why were the scummy slots split across both wagons? I think that makes more sense if they’re both town, and I think you make a lot of sense as scum especially given my earlier point on you suddenly being very invested in the game and not being lynched (possibly a mood thing, sure, and if it is that and I mislynch you for it I apologise but I can also very easily see it as scum you being happy to let the gamestate proceed as it was while town (skitter and I) we’re both pushing town, only to realise you needed to start playing harder once that stopped happening.

And idk if you are being bussed? If you are I think only bingle makes sense and it’s actually proving pretty hard to get a lynch on you with people pushing towards lil and S_S and bingle as other possibilities for today. I think scum is probably avoiding taking a hard stance on you but I’m not at all sold that you’re being bussed based on the resistance I’m feeling. And I actually am more confident in you being scum at this point than I’ve been in anyone being scum all game, the reason that I’ve been hesitant to call it like “Maria is 100% scum guys omg” is (1) I’m trying to be less arrogant than I used to be and more pleasant to play with and (2) I know your reputation and that you’re very good as scum and that I could be wrong in what I’m reading here, but that doesn’t change my feeling of confidence in it or that I want to lynch you, it just stops me having the hubris to say I’ve definitely caught scum!you here.

Finally, if you flip scum I think my theory of the scumteam in (you, PP, Blake, bingle, fb) is more likely to be correct, and that lilith is very likely town. Specifically, if you’re scum I think Blake is quite likely to be scum here, and would proceed on that basis tomorrow. Admittedly, if lilith is scum it would be big and idk what it would mean, but I don’t wanna lynch there because as of right now I think the game makes more sense if she’s town and you’re scum

this is I think all the relevant stuff on why I think Maria is likely to be scum, especially in a world where lilith is town

[Menalque]

I also think that Blake's efforts to get lilith > Maria are scummy in the case that Maria is scum and lilith is town, and PP's equity would go up to for how much he's been trying to get that to happen since Maria got wagoned