Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Menalque]

oh, and lastly the bingle wagon never took off as much as the MariaR wagon did (although she only reached L-2, saying that) and so I think there are more people, myself included, forced to re-evalute in the case that Maria's not scum whereas in the case where (bingle, lilith, MariaR) are all town I think I'd only be re-evaluating that too late

[Datisi]

can you eli5 that^^ because i've read it 3 times now and i feel dumb

[Menalque]

can you eli5 that^^ because i've read it 3 times now and i feel dumb

the last bit?

okay, I'll try

let's say lilith is town and she is vengeful. the other place that we tried to go today was Maria, yes? and Maria kind of had some degree of resistance, I think that in a world where lilith is town the gamestate indicates that she's likely to be scum, I'm broadly townreading people who wagoned her today -- in all those cases, it makes a lot of sense to me that Maria is scum and that's where I'd like to go tomorrow if lilith flips town. HOWEVER, in a case where Maria is also town, this is bad because it either means that my town reads are wrong or my town reads are also misreading the game really badly.

flipping the other slot that there seems to be a consensus may be scum on top of lilith means that if they're both town, re-evaluation needs to happen. every slot needs to be rechecked, and I'm not sure how I feel about the townbloc in that scenario.

flipping bingle would be fine if he flips scum, but the worst case scenario would be if he's town, AND if lilith and Maria are town, because the support would probably still be there for Maria tomorrow, but tomorrow might by Lylo. venging Maria removes more uncertainties than venging bingle does, imo

[skitter30]

i mean i guess i see what your'e saying but i don't scumread her as much as you do, overall

[Menalque]

I mean if lilith is town she should venge where she thinks is best, I'm just trying to let her know where I think is best and why I think the healthiest option going on would be venging Maria

I'm not even sold overall on whether she's town

also, idk what the consequence of her turning out to be the venge would be on the odds of you being serial killer not vig

[Menalque]

idk if I'm mathing right here, but isn't the odds of 2 K's like 0.25%?

(0.05*0.05)*100?

[Menalque]

that seems too low

[skitter30]

i don't think that lilith should target blake
i can understand why you'd be more worried about me being sk in the event that lilith is venge but i'm probably just going to ignore this until/unless mass paranoia sets in

[Something_Smart]

S_S, how do I do the math on what the likelihood of different setups is?

What specifically? The general rule is that more copies of a letter are less likely and 3-4 T's are expected.

[skitter30]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

oh wait this is wrong since we're not literally rolling letters

1 - (9/10) ^ 7

i think ?

[skitter30]

blake u think marar is town?

blake how confident in this are you?

[lilith2013]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

oh wait this is wrong since we're not literally rolling letters

1 - (9/10) ^ 7

i think ?

yeah that's what i said

[lilith2013]

blake claimed pr so i don't really want to venge there, i think that can be sorted out tomorrow

[skitter30]

sorry! you're right, my mistake!

[Blake Belladonna]

This most recent wave of posting doesn't match any prior knowledge I have of MariaR's scum game, and it does match prior knowledge I have of MariaR's towngame.

I think this is indicative.

I believe I can intuit MariaR's general thought processes as town and scum currently if she is town this game.

[lilith2013]

okay i attempted this again - i think the probability of exactly 2K's is .1^2 * .9^5 * (the number of combinations of arrangements for 2 K's in a 7 letter setup which is 27 = 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1), which is 12.4%

[Menalque]

what are the odds of two K's?

[lilith2013]

oops sorry it's 21, not 27, but the 12.4% is the result using 21

[skitter30]

{a50}
{mena}
{ss}
{dats, blake}
{pp}
{lilith} - idk/null
{mariar, fire, bingle}

i'd want someone in the last tier vigged, and there's absolutely scum in my townreads, i think

[Menalque]

{a50}
{mena}
{ss}
{dats, blake}
{pp}
{lilith} - idk/null
{mariar, fire, bingle}

i'd want someone in the last tier vigged, and there's absolutely scum in my townreads, i think

where do your townreads start?

[skitter30]

lilith is like the middle

[Menalque]

oh wait stupid question, sorry, assuming with PP?

[Menalque]

can we have bingle/S_S/skitt check that lilith's math is actually correct?

[skitter30]

i kinda suck at probability

[lilith2013]

i kinda suck at probability