Mini Normal 2148 (Post Game)

[stungun0404]

We have 8 hours to lynch, just so everyone is clear.

Porkens is currently at L-2

We should be fine as long as we don't wait until the last minute to put the 2 votes down, if we decide that is the way we go. Unless we have multiple people keeping an eye on the deadline that can vote (I think having 3 would be a safe count).

[Porkens]

Always a possibility, and like I said I am somewhat of two minds. If Dunn were to somehow flip town (he won’t) then a big chunk of my theory goes out the window and my tinfoil hat reads pick up some bandwidth.

Actually have questions for you stun. Which post initially changed your mind on GC? Somewhere around 445? Same questions about Dunn, in reverse.


P.edit THERE IS NO EARTHLY REASON WHY DUNN CANT BE LYNCHED INSTEAD. People on my wagon who are lamenting how unfortunate it is that I have to be the lynch or calling me a consolidation lynch are active RIGHT NOW and could switch to Dunn. It would be just as easy to get 2 votes within 8 hours on him.

The people wagoning me since this morning are choosing to do so over other options. It’s only inevitable if you want it to be.

[stungun0404]

Changed my mind towards scum on GC? Read my 455 which explains everything in a lot of detail.

I have thought Dunnstral is not scum, but he has been a weak townlean. I did not like the early case that was against him, as I did not find him to be scummy based off that, and then there was the fact that he was not supporting any counterwagons which from a survivalism aspect makes no sense if he is scum that held the majority vote for the majority of this day phase. Like, it makes absolutely no sense what his strategy would be there. There are other reasons, such as his more recent posts which I would suggest looking at as opposed to his earlier posts, because he had some really good posts between page 30 and page 40.

[Porkens]

I know that’s the follow-up explanation but I’m asking more about your thought process and when you initially moved from town reading GC to the scumread, which you backfilled later with ISO reads.

Cutting to the chase, you hopped off dunn for a flimsy reason, and got on GC as an “elsewhere wagon” but as far as I recall, you had till then not expressed scumleans on GC. When questioned, you gave reasons but it felt like digging for points to support your proported scumread rather than a scumread based on points.

[stungun0404]

It was after I analyzed everyone's ISO and tried to assess how town they were. GC was the player I had the most difficulty understanding from a town perspective, and past games have indicated to me that the player I feel is least town on D1 is scum every time that I can recall.

Like, his early posts were not explainable from a town perspective at all IMO...

[Porkens]

What prompted you to start iso reads when Dunn was the strongest wagon (which you were on?)

[stungun0404]

I hopped on GC because of the entire explanation of 455, which I intentionally withheld for about 10 posts to strengthen the argument I was working on before posting it and to see how people would react to my vote of GC.

[Porkens]

Why did you feel the need to delay and strategically strengthen your argument? Were you that convinced Dunn was town? How about Germaine or battlemage at that point, how was GC scummier than either?

[stungun0404]

I like to apply pressure on players to see how they react.

What prompted you to start iso reads when Dunn was the strongest wagon (which you were on?)

I didn't think Dunn was scum based off feel. I have played with him multiple times, so I am more attuned to that than other players in this game might be.

[stungun0404]

Why did you feel the need to delay and strategically strengthen your argument? Were you that convinced Dunn was town? How about Germaine or battlemage at that point, how was GC scummier than either?

I have stated this day phase on multiple occasions (which, yes you have probably have not read, but I feel like I am having to repeat myself a lot on this lol), that I intentionally withhold information if I think it can turn out to be an advantage to town.

This was expressed in my 785 and my 946, and this was yet another instance where I strategically withheld.

[stungun0404]

At that particular point, I thought that GC and Geraintm were the most scummy, and I kinda felt that your slot was town, but I wasn't too convinced. A lot has changed since then, and I am really convicted one of your slot/GC is scum.

[stungun0404]

If you want my percent rankings, I can grab them right out of the notes I took, let's go:

at that point, i had

GC 59% town
Geraintm 65% town
HK50 66% town
NM 67% town
Votato 68% town
NS 69% town
DoctorPepper 70% town
Bob 73% town
BM 74% town
Mala 77% town
Farside 79% town

So really no one stuck out with everyone so close to each other except GC.

[Porkens]

You’re playing both sides of the game here. You say the GC counter wagons was for reactions and also ten posts later that it’s this well-developed scumread.

You can give yourself permission to manipulate as many times as you like. I have read but have not internalized your self meta, no.

You also scumread votato, no? Yet you picked GC. And here we are back at my theory.

I will say this, if you are town, you are at least working hard.

Dunn is the correct lynch today. Tells us the most.

[Porkens]

Ok, say you are town. What did you make for f votato sheeping you on GC

[Porkens]

*make of

[stungun0404]

But HK made that same argument that the Dunn lynch tells us the most? And he is one of the players I trust the least. And plus, my biggest townread, Bob, saw an association between the two of you, so for all I know you could be scum partners, like I could see it.

[votato]

this day has dragged on far too long. it needs to end so we can get some flips and move past day 1. i really dont care who we lynch all that much at this point. porkens is still very scummy, and i dont see the dunn case. i could go for stungun maybe.

[stungun0404]

this day has dragged on far too long. it needs to end so we can get some flips and move past day 1. i really dont care who we lynch all that much at this point. porkens is still very scummy, and i dont see the dunn case. i could go for stungun maybe.

I honestly agree with this. I am over this day phase. I don't want to do any more analysis.

Porkens, I really can't tell you what I make of Votato's sheep vote until either a). a flip of you occurs, or b). a flip of him occurs, because it can easily be explained by both town and scum perspectives.

[Porkens]

Votato those reads are insane what do you base them on?

Stun, if you scumread HK we are light years apart here.

[farside22]

Pork: After my back and forth with Dunn he's a null read. I didn't like his beginning, don't like he is lurking out the day currently but I'm very certain about my town reads on SG and Votato.
Honestly after modding a game where a last minute push resulted in a town PR being lynched I don't like the odds at this late hour of flipping players reads and most seem like they just don't care at this point.

VOTE: Pork

[farside22]

Votato those reads are insane what do you base them on?

Stun, if you scumread HK we are light years apart here.

Votato always has the worst reads I see in any game.

[Porkens]

Votato, I misread the last read, that one is fine in theory. However inconsistent with your previous stances. Why did you hop on the GC wagon like that?

Farside well I fucking care! Dunn is nothing but scum this game, the countereagon onto GC, the sheeping from tato, the free pass to ger. remember all this while you settle on my corpse. Jesus Christ.

[votato]

Pork: After my back and forth with Dunn he's a null read. I didn't like his beginning, don't like he is lurking out the day currently but I'm very certain about my town reads on SG and Votato.
Honestly after modding a game where a last minute push resulted in a town PR being lynched I don't like the odds at this late hour of flipping players reads and most seem like they just don't care at this point.

VOTE: Pork

here comes the bus

[Porkens]

@mod I request that you add 24 hours to the dayclock out of consideration for my replacing in

[farside22]

Votato, I misread the last read, that one is fine in theory. However inconsistent with your previous stances. Why did you hop on the GC wagon like that?

Farside well I fucking care! Dunn is nothing but scum this game, the countereagon onto GC, the sheeping from tato, the free pass to ger. remember all this while you settle on my corpse. Jesus Christ.

If the mod adds the time I would push GC/Mala over Dunn did you see the post where mala calls BM town but then places a vote there.
Like come on that is shit fucking vote.

Pork: After my back and forth with Dunn he's a null read. I didn't like his beginning, don't like he is lurking out the day currently but I'm very certain about my town reads on SG and Votato.
Honestly after modding a game where a last minute push resulted in a town PR being lynched I don't like the odds at this late hour of flipping players reads and most seem like they just don't care at this point.

VOTE: Pork

here comes the bus

Please don't heckle me I'm really not in the mood for it.