Mini Normal 2148 (Post Game)

[Porkens]

OK, if you vote germ he'll be in the majority. Are you willing to flip there from Dunn, putting us 3 votes away from a lynch there, and making it easier to secure a lynch there?

Ok that’s fine VOTE: ger

[Not_Mafia]

Let's lynch Maris

[stungun0404]

@malakittens, if you check in. I see you played in the same game bob did with geraintm. What are your feelings on his alignment comparing his town posts in that game to his posts in this game? What do you make of him not voting anyone but an RVS vote, unlike that game?

[stungun0404]

Let's lynch Maris

Will you help us by voting whoever the tide is in favor of if we get close to a deadline and need to secure a lynch somewhere?

[farside22]

Im only half reading but i saw the ger push and I am not a fan.
I predict sg will lose this game for town. These mulri push and whip lash reads do not help the game

[stungun0404]

Im only half reading but i saw the ger push and I am not a fan.
I predict sg will lose this game for town. These mulri push and whip lash reads do not help the game

While you say that, I still have only remained within a pool of pushing 4 players mainly this day phase. Both GC/Porkens, because I think one is scum, HK because I think he is scum, and Gera because I think he is scum.

Votato I am coming around on. I have been resistant to pretty much any other votes, so I have stayed fairly consistent in spite of flipping between that pool.

Plus, if I think one of GC/Porkens is scum, and the other is not, then why should I lynch one of those when I could get one of geri/HK lynched instead?

[farside22]

I’m not voting you yet mala but I’m worried my fears are true

No, I’m town I’m just having a rocky start.

Mala o have a general townread on, votes on clidd and Dunn were fine. A thing that really sticks out to was that post after initial case on the “partners HK and votato” got so blown up.
“No I’m town” is something I’ve used as scum when almost lynched d1.

This is a flag if mala is scum she is setting up one of the 2 as scum and creating a pair that is a non thing.

[farside22]

Im only half reading but i saw the ger push and I am not a fan.
I predict sg will lose this game for town. These mulri push and whip lash reads do not help the game

While you say that, I still have only remained within a pool of pushing 4 players mainly this day phase. Both GC/Porkens, because I think one is scum, HK because I think he is scum, and Gera because I think he is scum.

Votato I am coming around on. I have been resistant to pretty much any other votes, so I have stayed fairly consistent in spite of flipping between that pool.

Plus, if I think one of GC/Porkens is scum, and the other is not, then why should I lynch one of those when I could get one of geri/HK lynched instead?

I didn't even know you had a scum reaf on gera. I still see too many fingerprints of mala giving him the benefit of a game day. She said this is how he is and other then lack of reads hes just null for me.

[Green Crayons]

Let's lynch Maris

Because of farside's reasons or something else?

[farside22]

Farside like i said my experience with you is different. It was longer ago and i feel like you are a tougher read

That large normal ended 3 weeks ago, maybe a month. How long ago did your game end with NS

[Not_Mafia]

What's the VC?

[stungun0404]

unofficial vote count

Geraintm (4): stungun0404, bob3141, votato, Porkens
Dunnstral (2): DoctorPepper, Malakittens
votato (2): Not_Mafia, farside22
HK 50(1): Dunnstral
notscience (1): geraintm
Porkens (1) Green Crayons
stungun0404 (1): HK 50
Not voting (1): notscience

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Porkens

The lynch that just won't stick

[votato]

Farside like i said my experience with you is different. It was longer ago and i feel like you are a tougher read

That large normal ended 3 weeks ago, maybe a month. How long ago did your game end with NS

less than a week ago? it ended right around whenever this one was starting. and since i was scum in that game, it was more memorable. i dunno. when you arent actively attacking me i dont get as worked up about your posts. notsci is very... loud. maybe you should attack me more?

[stungun0404]

Im only half reading but i saw the ger push and I am not a fan.
I predict sg will lose this game for town. These mulri push and whip lash reads do not help the game

While you say that, I still have only remained within a pool of pushing 4 players mainly this day phase. Both GC/Porkens, because I think one is scum, HK because I think he is scum, and Gera because I think he is scum.

Votato I am coming around on. I have been resistant to pretty much any other votes, so I have stayed fairly consistent in spite of flipping between that pool.

Plus, if I think one of GC/Porkens is scum, and the other is not, then why should I lynch one of those when I could get one of geri/HK lynched instead?

I didn't even know you had a scum reaf on gera. I still see too many fingerprints of mala giving him the benefit of a game day. She said this is how he is and other then lack of reads hes just null for me.

Yeah, I have cased him a lot this day phase. Here are several posts of mine where I've found him scummy:

Spoiler: Stun's suspicion of Geraintm

You’re a towel

so very very useful?

I don't get to look at mafia much at the weekends, 5 pages of I have no clue what arguing about ?

Glad I am missing it...

you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear

Stalling is anti-town, so no don't wait, try to get others to produce content instead by asking questions and engaging them in discussion. Scum, from my experience, stall frequently, so this officially puts you on my radar. Town should never feel like they can just wait on others to produce content in their absence.

VOTE: Geraintm

Absolutely nothing in their ISO thus far points to scumhunting, and I do not like that. Especially paired together with their commitment to stalling that they admitted to in 108 by saying "you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear."

That does not settle right with me at all.

VOTE: Geraintm

Absolutely nothing in their ISO thus far points to scumhunting, and I do not like that. Especially paired together with their commitment to stalling that they admitted to in 108 by saying "you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear."

That does not settle right with me at all.

I have nothing at the moment. day 1 people talk but it doesn't mean anything. votes are the important thing and there just haven't been many so far. I'm very much the type of person who looks at people's voting patterns and trying to either spot inconsistencies or really, really bad logic used to justify them

when I say you all do you, it is just me saying I don't have the mental capacity to argue over perceived slights, misunderstandings or whatever

Fervently disagree with D1 meaning nothing, and the reason why is because I have formed my best reads historically off D1 insights. It is possible to find an entire scum team on D1, and in that regard time has proven that my D1 reads are often my best of any day phase.

Why can't you read votes that have already occurred in this day phase and analyze them?

GC has a fair point, geraintm is still voting not science based off RVS reasoning, which is just a very lazy vote park that is not seemingly going to get us anywhere this day phase. I'm not real fond of it.

If he's town, it's as though he is playing a scared game, and I also don't really like that. If he is scum, it makes sense; he wants to stay in the background.

@GC: if you had to guess, what do you think geraintm's alignment is?

So far, I feel good in asserting these players as more likely town than not: Not Science, farside, Dr. Pepper, Mala
Gut is also leaning town with Bob.

That means I think in all likelihood all scum have to be in this group of 7 players {NM,

geraintm

, GC, HK, Dunnstral, votato, BM}

@HK: I like that you responded. The one alternative scenario right now where I can see you are town would mean to me a scum team of BM/Clidd-Votato-and

Geraintm

. Like, I really feel good enough about everyone else to assert that I feel fairly confident that all 4 scum are in those 4 folks, with BM and Votato being a super obvious pair. I can't see those two not being partners. Too much of a clear link to be coincidental.

It would be only after those 4 are lynched that I would want to see a potential Dunnstral/nm lynch.

I really want your response to this though:

@HK50, how do you feel about the alignments of Clidd and Votato? And why?

I will respond to the rest of your case either tomorrow or the following day.

my reads, based off a combination of feel and reasoning.

titanium-strong town reads: bob, dr. pepper
solid town reads, but not beyond doubt: farside, notscience, malakittens
likely town: nm
nulltown: Dunnstral (this is notably my weakest town indication though)

minus associations and all the other stuff i have been pondering, here is how i would rate the others based strictly off the assumption that anyone could be partnered with anyone:

null: votato, gc

scumleans:

geraintm

, hk50

strongest scumread: clidd/bm

Thank you Porkens for claiming!

A question to everyone then: if today's lynch is not Porkens, who else would you be willing to lynch this day phase?

Maybe then we can get a full perspective on who the best alternatives could be to a Porkens lynch. Because otherwise I don't see a lot of unity occurring among us if we start getting town indications from Porkens (which he still should try to give us, but in the meantime this is what we can ideally obtain).

For me, I would prefer HK if not Porkens, but also am open to lynching

gera

, or GC (GC I only say this because I am confident one of you or Porkens is scum, and therefore I am open to lynching either of you if it comes to that, but you are at the bottom of my list of 4 players right now as it stands).

Also, anybody feel free to raise objections to this if you think giving out this information might hurt town more than help us.

And yet I had voted geraintm at an earlier point and clearly indicated that I was OK with him getting pressure? Did you happen to miss that?

I don't think as town you doubt the genuineness of that interaction. Like it really gave me a scummy feel about you that I have been unable to shake.

No I did not; that's not the issue I had. I never had an issue with you wanting to redirect pressure there because of suspicions.

My issue was with how it came across to votato which felt unnatural. There was several points where you felt you were either trying to force votato to commit (via stating that it was the only wagon other than him you would move to) on top of it feeling purposely leading after votato gave his first read about germ.

Finally, I found it off putting that you dropped reading votato and prioritized pushing germ when the thread topic switched to that, leaving votato's 650 for example untouched till later which was the analysis you claimed you wanted to see.

Why do you think town me has to see it as genuine?

As for the bolded, this is easily explainable too. I started getting some bad feelings about my push on Votato, so I moved away from him, and there was (and still honestly is) absolutely no support for a

Geri

wagon. No one has voted him outside of Bob and I in this game. No one. So I went to other scummy suspects.

My pool is a mix of three factors:

Ger+stun circa 274
Stun+Dunn+vot circa 389 (targeting GC)
Bob circa the first 30pages not expressing one firm read then calling Dunn town. Also votato and stun both have bob town.

274 was not serious at all; it was a total joke. His previous post made me laugh. I would definitely not base anything off of that--because it is not by any means an AI vote flip. Anyways, there was no support for the

gera

wagon anyways, so it seemed to be a lost cause.

Circa 389: I'm not quite sure why that raised red flags for you either

Bob has asked incredibly insightful questions and made numerous original observations that to me clearly suggest he is coming from a town perspective. It is clear he is scumhunting. And why are you basing your read of someone based off who others have as town, and thus making them scum? That's not a compelling reason for finding someone to be in your scumpool.

At that particular point, I thought that GC and

Geraintm

were the most scummy, and I kinda felt that your slot was town, but I wasn't too convinced. A lot has changed since then, and I am really convicted one of your slot/GC is scum.

If you want my percent rankings, I can grab them right out of the notes I took, let's go:

at that point, i had

GC 59% town

Geraintm 65% town

HK50 66% town
NM 67% town
Votato 68% town
NS 69% town
DoctorPepper 70% town
Bob 73% town
BM 74% town
Mala 77% town
Farside 79% town

So really no one stuck out with everyone so close to each other except GC.

Let’s Lynch farside mala it’ll be fun

She can get mad about me not having a sensible reason again

im down. she was mean to me, thats reason enough for a lynch right?

also, why is it so friggin hard to lynch the porkens slot? that alone means scum

you could make that argument. but i'm curious myself why it's so hard to get pressure on

geraintm

(who had only 2 votes this day phase) or hk or GC? There's very likely a scum or maybe more than one in those three players IM.

It makes it clear we are not dealing with 3 active scum members pushing lynches, which could even be taken to mean the likelihood is greater that

geraintm

is scum (the most passive player in this game imo).

I think

geraintm

is scum, and regardless of what Porkens might flip, we should lynch him either today or next day phase. Most if not all of his theory discussion has only beneficial to scum, thus he is pro-scum, and very likely scum.

If he's town, his theories so far are awfully harmful to town.

Vote Count 1.17

Porkens (4):

bob3141, votato, Green Crayons, stungun0404

Dunnstral (3):

DoctorPepper, Porkens, Malakittens

votato (2):

Not_Mafia, farside22

HK 50(1):

Dunnstral

notscience (1):

geraintm

stungun0404 (1):

HK 50

Not voting (1):

notscience

---

Mod Notes:

Majority is 7 players.

Day 1 has begun and will end in (expired on 2020-06-25 21:18:29).[/area]

Less than 9 hours to settle on a vote, guys. No more than 4 votes on anyone.

I would be open to starting a wagon on geraintm, but I don't know if we are going to get 6 votes there in time, so I am kinda stuck there.

Porkens I think would vote there, probably GC, maybe Bob who voted him at an earlier point if he pops in, but who else?

*7 votes

VOTE: Geraintm

I will gladly switch to Porkens if we don't think this is feasible.

Mabinogion, please vote for Scratchings

Why not vote Gera? No lynch theory, no claim theory, and stalling theory is antitown. He has participated in all three.

Things still are not clear for him.

He is still voting Not Science from RVS.

We are having trouble lynching, Do you think it might be because a scum geraintm is not helping us at all?

I don't get it. What is so hard for others to understand about geraintm likely being scum/coming off scummy here? How could his repeated examples of clearly anti-town behavior and theory result in a townflip? I see it as unlikely.

I mean, still only three people have now voted him this day phase, in spite of his obvious pro-scum behavior: Bob, Votato, and I.

But Geraintm has clearly been more antitown consistently. Why should we give him the benefit of the doubt when I have established he has been antitown on at least three occasions?

[Dunnstral]

Wouldn't Geraintm have joined a wagon... or is he just that passive

[stungun0404]

Wouldn't Geraintm have joined a wagon... or is he just that passive

I don't know. Do we have a meta of his scum game? We do of established town games for him, where he is passive, but not this

passive

. He could be thinking here as scum he has to look the same way.

In addition, it does not appear he is scumhunting. We are having trouble securing a lynch anywhere. And I assume that means 1 or maybe even 2 scum are not giving us much help with lynching here. I don't buy that everyone that is not helping us is disinterested town, making it more difficult for us to secure a lynch because of that.

This apparent passivity/lack of help we are getting in securing a lynch IMO aligns with my scumspects of HK and gera, particularly, working together.

Wouldn't it make sense if scum was seriously helping us right now that we would not be waiting until perhaps the last second to be lynching someone?

This should make it highly likely from other's perspectives that there is one, maybe two scum in the more passive pool of HK, gera, and Dr. Pepper (although I think he is town personally -- I could see how others could perceive him fitting into this role for only really voting Dunnstral).

[farside22]

Farside like i said my experience with you is different. It was longer ago and i feel like you are a tougher read

That large normal ended 3 weeks ago, maybe a month. How long ago did your game end with NS

less than a week ago? it ended right around whenever this one was starting. and since i was scum in that game, it was more memorable. i dunno. when you arent actively attacking me i dont get as worked up about your posts. notsci is very... loud. maybe you should attack me more?

Both games look to have ended around the same time. And from the last game we played i didn't need to actively attack you to have your read change on me.

[notscience]

Okay. I’m gonna keep tryharding just let me know if/when you feel up to chatting. I get I have a big uphill battle.

Well if it helps I don't think your scum any more my pool is more Dunn/Votato/Mala/GC

That's where I'm leaning on the most. If you are town I think 2 players pocket you. I saw it happen before where scum did that so I'm not buying what either are selling.
Also I find it odd that votato only uses meta as a town read on you but he knows my play and hasn't explained why he see's this as scum me. At this point i think he's faking stupid.
That's my head for the day. Won't be switching to pork if I can absolutely help it.

It’s weird because I am townreading your whole pool but the only one I’d see an argument for pocketing me is mala and maybe votato

The meta thing is weird I agree.

[notscience]

VOTE: votato

Sorry dude feel more confident in a geraintm green flip

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: votato

[Green Crayons]

How many times has the BM slot hit 4 votes and then just withered, or to hit 4 slots again?

[Green Crayons]

only to*


And again. And again.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: geraintm

I'm not big on a votato lynch

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: votato

Sorry dude feel more confident in a geraintm green flip

why votato?