Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[SleeperSoul]

My problem right now is that I'm pretty sure there's one scum in Clover/Aldus but I don't think they can both be scum and I can't figure out who the second is.

I tend to agree with you on this but my strategy here is to just ignore scum and look for town.... I prefer the least amount of thinking as possible. Most of my thinking is just what is required to express myself verbally. The rest of the time, I'm in "la la land".

[Klick]

DkKoba comes in and to their credit they pin the two people in the initial coalition that I'm least sure about. But not really in a way that inspires me to think they're town to start with.

[Deimos27]

Can't just look for town if you end up with too many townreads as a result, Sleeper.

[SleeperSoul]

Can't just look for town if you end up with too many townreads as a result, Sleeper.

But I don't have too many, I only have two strong ones and two weak ones.

[SleeperSoul]

All this talk about pooky has given me a little paranoia about him, and I feel like I can't really read him without him being present. So that read is almost back to null right now until pooky comes back.

[Deimos27]

Well I do. I re-read DC's ISO and Pooky's interaction with Koba and now those players feel town to me again. But this leaves me townreading every player in the game except Aldus/Clover. So someone's pulled a fast one on me.

[SleeperSoul]

I will do another reread of everything tomorrow morning, I might have more on pooky then but I dunno.

[Klick]

I find it odd that 'I have a townread on all but two players' equates to 'I must be wrong' rather than 'these two players are scum'

[SleeperSoul]

I find it odd that 'I have a townread on all but two players' equates to 'I must be wrong' rather than 'these two players are scum'

yeah those were my thoughts.


You don't think it's possible for scum to be both aldus and clover, deimos?

[Deimos27]

Yes, for the simple reason that these players exhibited no resistance to the initial coalition which made it to L-1. And if it

is

the scumteam, I win anyway by excluding them, so I'd rather assume it's only 1 and solve that way.

[Deimos27]

I've already given this reasoning once before.

[SleeperSoul]

Okay, your reasoning is strong. I just don't know how you have so many townreads

[Klick]

Koba have you had a scumgame yet?

Not a conventional mafia game, just Avalon where I played my other wincon(finding merlin) rather than trying to avoid getting hanged. But I have plenty of town games you can analyze at your leisure

I already skimmed your towngames, why do you think I have little faith in your reads lol

TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert

At first when I read this I liked it. But rn it just feels weak. Especially since they already expressed a townread on DC

PEdit: Deimos do you think Clover/Aldus are the type of players who, as scum, would start a fuss at an initial coalition taking off?
Neither strikes me as assertive enough to steer the coalition away the way you're describing (Clover based on reading this game, Aldus based on past experience).

[Klick]

HURT: DonCorleone
HEAL: Alduskkel

if my coalition is wrong I will self

Nahhh Aldus has like 4 posts at this point and none of them would inspire this confidence. I don't see it

[SleeperSoul]

@Deimos So if you townread everyone except one between two.... Doesn't that make YOU the last scum?




This to me doesn't strike me as the type of play that a player like Deimos would make as scum.... Am I off on this?

[Deimos27]

You could well be right, Klick. But again, if that's the case we win anyway by excluding both so I'd like to use my remaining exclusions as insurance against whoever I read as the likeliest potential scumpartners for those two.

[Klick]

Whoa you guys post a lot! I'll catch up after work

Like here, Clover for example clearly just wasn't around for the coalition that was taking off at this point.
I get what you're saying now about insurance exclusions but it doesn't quite add up with what you originally said and I find that a bit fishy.

[Deimos27]

I don't know what to tell you, Klick. It feels too easy if scum is Aldus/Clover. You have meta with Aldus, I do not. As far as I can tell, if he is scum with Clover in that early game he must try to shake the initial coalition up somehow.

[Deimos27]

Koba can confirm for you that something I do as town is look for explanatory power regarding particular gamestates. In CultD3 I came to a D2 solve by identifying the scumteam that had the most explanatory power for D1 events.

In this case, one event that occurred was that an initial coalition formed with little resistance. If there was scum on that coalition, it has a lot of explanatory power. Another promising team would be Koba/Clover, since bugspray was equally absent in the early game. But I haven't found a Koba sr out of his individual play.

[Deimos27]

Both of those possibilities explain that gamestate better than Clover/Aldus.
So no, I'm not gonna bet the game on Clover/Aldus. I'll solve assuming there's just one scum in those two for now.

[Klick]

So at around Page 18, Sleeper is considered town by basically the whole thread.
Similarly, based on what I've seen recently, I'm widely considered town right now.

This could mean one of three things, in regards to what the scumteam is doing:
1. Sleeper (or myself) is scum, and scum are fine with us being widely townread for obvious reasons. I doubt Sleeper is scum so I'm not particularly interested in this one.
2. Scum are in the small set of players that aren't widely townreading Sleeper and myself, and they're pushing for alternatives. I'd need to look at it more in-depth to see who is viable for this (likely anyone who isn't currently in the popular coalitions).
3. Scum are townreading us.

But why?

They must be planning for at least one scum to enter the coalition. This is where we can potentially get a lot of info. Scum could be fine with us being strong townreads if they think they're going to get into the final coalition, for example. Or their partner is in a safe enough spot that they don't mind town getting locked in.

Something for everyone to think about. I'll put more thought into it probably tomorrow. Going to do a bit more catch-up tonight.

PEdit: started writing this before you got into explanatory power lol. Same concept. Hopefully this contributes to your solve a bit then?

[Klick]

Coming around slightly on Tux? Not enough to be inspired to heal them, but it's a start

[Klick]

Pooky's 465 case on Koba is pretty presumptive of how town!DkKoba would approach the game. Feels convoluted. Its missing the third option where DkKoba isn't totally confident Pooky is scum and just wants to find their own set of town they're comfy with.

[Klick]

There's also this big assertion by Pooky that there has to be one scum on and one scum off the coalition. I don't think all scum players would play that way for a number of reasons and assuming it as the way everyone would approach the situation feels wrong.

[Klick]

DK's play doesn't quite match up with the scum thought process here imo. I get the idea behind them being scum because they are fighting what could be a town coalition, but tbh I don't think DK!scum would feel all that threatened by the coalition that was going on then. It was too fragile. If DK was going all aggro on it as scum then I think their reasons are more complex than 'destroy the current coalition'.