Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Menalque]

I remember reading somewhere that false innos tend to fuck towns much harder than false guilties, and I’m wondering if that’s what’s happening here. Because actually, if Blake didn’t roleblock firebringer or bingle, it makes perfect sense that the ninja could have been used then, and I don’t see why the ninja would necessarily be used on N1

[Menalque]

And like, the game just doesn’t make that much sense right?

Multiple people who have good reads have said PP is varying degrees of town, Maria is willing to bet the game on that

Maria is cleared

A50 was the top townread of both skitter and Blake at the times of their deaths

S_S doesn’t make sense as scum according to Bingle

***

Bingle is the person who everyone was saying makes sense (all the dead townies anyway) as scum based on his play. I think that follows looking at who he pushed and when — he wanted S_S over lilith because “no one makes sense as a partner” which is I think quite spurious reasoning — fb, who bingle was meant to be scumreading, always made sense with lilith, no? He also hopped onto Maria after S_S!wagon died and then only hopped back to lilith once she was looking like the lynch. If there was anyone who shifted the momentum there, I think it was A50

So if the scumteam didn’t use the ninja shot N1, it would make perfect sense to use it N2, no? And then bingle would hard defend S_S as a pocket, knowing that there are easily explainable kills all the way to lylo (me, Blake, Blake’s clear) where he uses the pocket on S_S to lynch the monkey

[Menalque]

Like bingle makes sense as the JOAT in every sense apart from his clear — but what if his clear isn’t a clear because there is an exact counter to the most likely invest in the game. If I’d tracked fb, he’s be the top of the list. And the alternative is, if scum knew they were in a really bad position and they *had* burned the ninja, I’d always look at that scumteam expecting bingle to be making the endgame carry, not fb. So it could also make sense for fb to make the kill even as the goon to preserve bingle’s endgame equity

[Menalque]

I guess the other thing that doesn’t make sense for bingle!scum and which is sort of compelling as a reason to read him as town is — why would he not roleblock skitter? But that’s a compelling argument for anyone as scum when skitter had one of her top scumreads as a possible vig target

[Menalque]

I still think PP’s reaction to me was very bad but the VCA didn’t make a lot of sense to me with PP as the final scum

Do we lynch bingle today and then maybe S_S?

[Menalque]

I wonder if dead thread is screaming at me for thinking about lynching someone I have a “didnt go anywhere” result on for N2 or if they’re applauding

[Menalque]

Although if Bingle flips town, I really think PP is someone you should reconsider @maria, because that means that bingle’s argument for why S_S isn’t scum makes sense AND is an argument that he’s been making in good faith all this time and not to set up endgame

[Menalque]

I guess a big concern of mine is that if bingle /is/ town then we’re fucked if we lynch him today — or the game becomes way harder, as I think the correct option is still to probably no kill on D5 and let it go to 3p lylo of (PP, SS, a50)

[Menalque]

I guess another issue is that I’m gonna feel SUPER fuckin dumb if I lynch bingle today and he’s town when I had what amounted to a clear on him

[ofrhz]

Blake can’t have been on fb or bingle on N2 because she voted bingle and if bingle had used strongman he would have shown up to me. Can’t have been on fb or he wouldn’t have died.

ofhrz, what result would a tracker receive if they targeted someone who had been jail kept?

Same result as if the target didn't submit a night action

"x didn't target anyone"

[Menalque]

Scum is in {chem, ss, datisi, fb, Lilith}

Turkey ultimately came off bingle scum, thought that chem made sense as scum with the others, also thought S_S could be scum

Yes, I see you turkey, bragging about your reads in that dead thread

[Menalque]

what would a tracker see if they targeted someone who was jailkept but who used a strongman?

Sorry, I know the answer is very likely that you’d see them make the kill but I just wanna make sure

[Something_Smart]

the VCA didn’t make a lot of sense to me with PP as the final scum

Why is this?

[Something_Smart]

I wonder if dead thread is screaming at me for thinking about lynching someone I have a “didnt go anywhere” result on for N2 or if they’re applauding

I mean the fact of the matter is that the result is ambiguous. Odds are good the dead thread is biased by knowing the answer, so I wouldn't be worrying about them.

[Something_Smart]

That said, it's a point in Bingle's favor, and probably the strongest point anyone in {PP, Bingle, A50} has in their favor.

[Something_Smart]

With a caveat. That reasoning assumes that the scum's N1 kill failed and thus they knew there was a kill stopper of some sort, and furthermore it assumes that they thought it was some kind of protective.

If they either shot PB N1, or their kill did fail but they thought either they shot a hider or the person making the kill was jailkept, then they wouldn't have had a reason to use strongman N2, and indeed it would make sense to use ninja then.

So the question is, how likely do we think those scenarios are?

[Almost50]

Wait! I'm receiving transmission.

Spoiler:

skitter

says to lynch

Bingle

[Menalque]

^started typing that before you posted

I think there’s probably a scum in (bingle, skitt, Blake, PP)

Unless I was protected from a nightkill or I'm scum with him, the odds of him being scum is very very low.

Even with the general suspicion towards my slot, I doubt he lets me live past night one.

Could this be Blake crumbing a jailkeep on bingle on N1?

[Menalque]

We know she didn’t target me, we know she didn’t target skitter

[Menalque]

Bingle is town barring the possibility that I was protected or the scum making the kill was jailed.

This feels a lot like she’s crumbing a jk on bingle N1 and I know that Blake does crumb her night actions

*cries in ali vs pine*

[ofrhz]

what would a tracker see if they targeted someone who was jailkept but who used a strongman?

yup

[Something_Smart]

Does that affect anything?

I suppose if that's the case, and scum figured out she was JK and jailed Bingle, then they would have known she wouldn't jail skitter and they could ninja kill skitter.

That seems fairly unlikely though?

[Menalque]

Does that affect anything?

I suppose if that's the case, and scum figured out she was JK and jailed Bingle, then they would have known she wouldn't jail skitter and they could ninja kill skitter.

That seems fairly unlikely though?

It would... massively explain the missing NK?

[Menalque]

what would a tracker see if they targeted someone who was jailkept but who used a strongman?

yup

Thanks ofhrz!

[Something_Smart]

Well, I'm assuming that Blake stopped the NK, but it wouldn't be conclusive whether she targeted the person who attempted the NK or the target of it. She could easily have targeted Bingle and saved him from a kill.