I never had a good gut feel regarding Vot. I kinda let it go because Notty was townreading him, but this flip makes me think we have scum between {GC, Dunn & Vot}. Potentially HK50, but I been townreading him as of late.
There’s many other players that BM didn’t even mention once during the course of D1.
Not_mafia is prob town.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
Here I was worried the closure was due to something serious, glad to have the game back.
In post 1599, Malakittens wrote:So I’m thinking that one of his scum partners might be someone he mentions quite often. I know he mentions Vot a lot, along with Dun.
I'm not sure why this is necessarily true? The logic seems very arbitrary.
In post 1603, maxwell wrote:Here I was worried the closure was due to something serious, glad to have the game back.
In post 1599, Malakittens wrote:So I’m thinking that one of his scum partners might be someone he mentions quite often. I know he mentions Vot a lot, along with Dun.
I'm not sure why this is necessarily true? The logic seems very arbitrary.
IDK. I’m kinda annoyed we did such a wagon switch to Gera. I mean I know I was getting sick of hearing Gera go “I’m not great at D1” so please give me a pass. He was a LHF so the fact we did wagon switch to him is kinda grrr
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
I could also be ok with a bob lynch. My townread was slowly fading throughout the Day 1. Also the fact he voted for Gera knowing how hard it was to read him D1 was meh.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
I was not exactly expecting a geraintm townflip. NotScience was right in saying that some of the most antitown things come from town, and geraintm certainly fits in that category.
Sorry for leading town towards a mislynch. While I regret doing that specifically, I am fine with having Geraintm out of the game for one simple reason: he was a real distraction for me from analyzing the gamestate correctly. 9/10 times I probably repeat that same lynch under the same circumstances, and the reason why is some of the things that he said as far as theory went came off as grossly anti-town. From an informational perspective, this lynch may not have been very beneficial for others, but I can say for a fact it definitely was for me.
Anyways, I am back to where I was at the middle of last day phase, after revisiting some things.
First off, a little bit before the middle of the first day phase, I had an intuition as to what I thought the possible scum team compositions could be, based off my impression of the game. This is where I was at the time (and where I find myself now as well):
1 scum in {
GC
,
Porkens
)
1 scum in {Votato, Dunnstral}
1 scum in {
Geri
, nm, HK}
For some reason, I strayed from this eventually, but geraintm was honestly always in my scumlean pool based off the content of his posts tbch.
User avatar
Joined: May 25, 2018
Pronoun: He
Post Post #126 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:27 pm
@GC, with the geri townflip and Porkens scumflip, I feel you are undoubtably town. The reason being is because after rereading, some of your reactions seemed completely genuine to both my scumreading of Geri and me linking you with Geri, because I really don't think scum under the same circumstances reacts in quite the same way as you did. It would be really complicated for them to pull off.
Second of all, I like the fact that you settled back on Porkens because I was so high on the impression of one of you being scum, and now I know that it was Porkens that was scum among you, especially since he made that (T vs. T argument) for the two of you, which I absolutely profoundly disagreed with, and that has now been proven true.
farside was notably the other that agreed with this assumption (although I was the one to state it first). I was already townreading her, and the fact that she came to that conclusion too makes me feel good about maxwell, more or less.
Also, I liked the fact that you have been aggressively disagreeing with me on a lot of things, and that you do not feel like scum trying to pocket me at all. Now that I notice that geraintm was town and was similarly doing this aggressively (which honestly looking back should have been a town ping because of how much and aggressively he disagreed with me, knowing that I am town), this makes me feel great about you.
Finally, I knew that you and bm was not s v s, therefore you are now in my undoubted townpool.
HK also extended that same argument that Porkens did (that Porkens vs. GC was town vs. town which I don't think town could conclude), and so I think they are linked. You two clearly were not town vs. town from my perspective.
Votato, as I thought early in the day phase, is the one that naturally links the two. It just makes sense, both from a gut feel and analysis perspective. Votato is scummier than Dunnstral to me, too. Similarly, HK is scummier than nm in my pool.
I really really disliked some of Vot's reactions from last day phase, revisiting it through analysis. I totally want to lynch him next. Going into last night, I knew it had to be Porkens or Votato next -- both had bad vote reasoning. Votato should be our next lynch.
The way bob expressed his vote for gera read like it was coming from someone who had gotten burned by his horrible play before and it read town, like most of his play. looking at his day 1 he went pretty hard for a vote of the battle mage slot. I don't see myself as likely to vote him. He also raised a decent point about the way HK 50 kept trying to defend that slot. I think he comes off looking significantly worse after that flip.
Not_Mafia, Green Crayons, stungun0404, Malakittens, bob3141, votato
Dunnstral (4):
DoctorPepper, farside22, HK 50, notscience
Green Crayons (1):
clidd
notscience (1):
geraintm
Not_Mafia (1):
Dunnstral
Not voting (0):
[/area]
I think this votecount is the lynchpin, of the players off that wagon I think HK 50 looks the worst by a fairly significant amount. Its possible Porkens push on Dunnstral could have been a last minute distancing play but I still lean town on Dunns play overall.
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
Notes PT - Let me know if you want a private thread to store your thoughts and feedback for the other players. This thread will be made public immediately after the game. You may draft posts in your notes PT but you
may not talk about your notes PT in public. You definitely may not use the notes PT to demonstrate that you've had a town mindset in private all along; just put your town mindset in public to begin with and keep your notes to yourself.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
I think DoctorPepper doesn't look particularly great on a reread either with regard to his stance on the battle mage slot but I had him as somewhere in the null realm regardless simply due to lurking. Would still probably vote HK first.
