Newbie 2012 - Game Over

[72offsuit]

Id say eliminating Unowen in ElLo (Eliminate or Lose) tomorrow

[DoctorPepper]

... you hammered without a claim

[72offsuit]

So... That was an error, not lack of cooperation

[72offsuit]

If 72 is scum, he has played this game very poorly imo

This is why we need to spend more time on UNOwen, Ydrasse, Mini, and myself. 72 strikes me as a pretty capable player, I don't think he instahammers unless there's a benefit to him. Like I said, I think the worst case scenario is his partner is Ydrasse or UNOwen and set to have a really good chance to endgame, in which case we need to do as much as we can to give ourselves a chance at solving them. I myself don't want to be an easy mislynch for scum here

So what was the benefit for! ScumMe to hammer there?

[72offsuit]

@italiano:

Spoiler:

I guess I'd be okay with a 72 lynch today, however I can't shake it that GuiltyLion was the one that broke the tie first and also pulled his vote away from DoctorPepper.

also on this, my move to TTJT was motivated primarily because I really didn't like how he was dancing around both DocPep and 72 slots, it felt like he was noncommittal about making reads or votes on either of the slots in question. Also because we really needed to consolidate on a lynch at that point and at that point I was fine with any of the three, if anything I was starting to have some doubts about DocPep

No, you're right he was, that's why I read him as such and wanted to keep an eye on him had he survived the lynch. Now we know he flipped green, so although he was suspicious by most (including me), I need to look at why it happened the way it did and see if I can make sense of it. 72 was being questioned (in post and in thought) by myself, Ydrasse, and Walter because of his and DoctorPepper's late day exchange, however I was the only one that voted for him. To be fair, I was a lot more suspicious than they were, but I especially thought Walter would vote 72, since he had been suspicious of him early in the day. And I'll have to recheck, but I don't ever remember Walter easing off or feeling better about 72 up to that point. Ydrasse was kind of touching on it, but to me it still seemed like DoctorPepper wouldn't have been her vote.

you have to understand fmpov how shady that hammer looked coming from 72, and fmpov it was a potential way for scum!72 to survive when votes started to pile up against him. it wasn't so much that jt was a threat but that it was the only option for self-preservation in that moment.

Self Preservation? He was tied at 3 with DoctorPepper and JT and everyone had voted. That's not self-preservation. And neither of the moves look good imo. Both GuiltyLion and 72 were suspicious of DoctorPepper for their own reasons and simply unvoted him to vote for a player that in both their cases were less scummy. 72 made a whole case for DoctorPepper and ended up voting for JT. GuiltyLion thought DoctorPepper was soft claiming as I did and voted him thinking him scum and then just didn't vote for him, so both moves look suspicious to me not just 72's. I have to say your self-preservation angle is strange at best and outright false at worse.

and for doctorpepper, i still had misgivings in 552. he was jumping on people who were voting him, his activity came only after the pressure on him started, and he was ignoring things that i found weird to ignore in lieu of tunneling the people who were after him. and when i came back, jt was already hammered and i was reading in the context of 72 doing that. seeing 72 slap down a vote and then go "oops" made me realize how 72 had already tried to get out of going toe to toe with dp and as i stated, i thought that him doing that could've been a way to avoid getting lynched as scum. my read of dp flipped pretty fast after that.

Why didn't you mention it then? I know your vote was already there and it didn't matter because TTJT was already hammered.

how is saying that it's self preservation false? fmpov, scum!72 sees that one of the wagons (that he was first upon) is dying out, leaving him competing with another one. one of the safety options is gone and he has to make sure that he as scum is not lynched, so he throws down a hammer onto jt and claims it's an accident so that things cannot be turned back onto him.

especially given the fact that, like i said, dp at that point was adamant about it being either dp or 72. a scum!72 realizes that in the event that it's between him and dp, and if dp goes down first there's a high chance the town focuses in on him the next day. that, or he gets voted off that day (meaning day 1) outright. so instead, it's better to turn the hammer onto someone outside of those two so he doesn't have to continue dealing with the pressure of dp's tunneling and insistence it's between them two. it's another option that, from his pov, could present greater odds of getting through the day.

and which part didn't i mention then? do you mean why didn't i mention my misgivings when it came to dp, or the fact that i thought his content had improved? the former i feel can be seen in that my vote was STILL on dp for a reason — he had gotten townier, but it isn't outside a realm of possibility that he was still scum to me given the fact of where his suspicions rested. a lot of this wasn't mentioned because i was gone from the time after i had asked dp some stuff and when 72 was hammered, and the hammer itself made me reconsider a lot of things at eod.

Spoiler:

what the hell

What does this mean? What are you talking about?

i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

And yet you still voted for him.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

Okay, but to be fair we are acting as if scum!72 would be cool, calm, and collected. He could have very well made a mistake under pressure. We say it's dumb because we're looking at it from a town perspective but as scum and being on edge, it could have very well been a slip up. At best he is just a townie who made a major mistake, but I think either way he should be the lynch today.

even in that post, i don't get why he called the vote itself empty. also that, and 121 where he states that he's fine keeping his vote on italiano, but he can imagine a world where his actions are towny, and he also agrees with your wagon as well and supports it from a distance. so he's pretty low in my poe. the two other people who i consider pretty low in it are voting him though which... . i think there's at least one scum in {italiano, jt, owen}.

What are you feeling now? I know this is old, but you have iso'd GuiltyLion & Walter. Have you done anyone else yet?

if 72 is scum the mishammer was definitely to get out of the 1v1 with dp.

Hate to beat a dead horse, but isn't this more reason for you not to have voted DoctorPepper?

also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

Do you feel more strong, equal, or less about this after the JT flip?

To me doctor pepper and jt are on two different sides where one is town vs one being scum.

This is interesting. Now with the JT flip, do you still feel this way?

Guilty Lion, in post 556 you mentioned:

"I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well."

Two questions:

1) Why was there no mention of T-T?
2) How do you feel now? Now that JT flipped townie? Is DoctorPepper the Scum?

1) i said what the hell because i came back to 72 claiming that he hadn't seen the vote on dp at all. it was a mess to come back to, lmfao.

2) yes. i voted for him when i thought he was scummy, and my vote stayed there after because despite improvements i still thought there was a chance dp could be scum.

3) yeah, that's fair, which is why my vote is on 72 as it is. in context with everything else it doesn't seem like it was an accidental vote given how much 72 benefited from it in that moment, but i have to consider all the possibilities.

4) ii still have some suspicions that are lingering in that pool i presented. i haven't gotten around to iso'ing either of you yet. i'm going to do it sometime during this day. you're not as high on my scumread list though, after that fiasco in d1.

for owen i have to reread, because i don't remember him ever making a push on me and i don't understand why he's saying that i'm one of two required partners for 72, and instead saying that you brought up a good point and then not offering his own opinions from the reread that he did. his response to guiltylion in 695 seems deflective of the pressure put onto him imo without giving reasons.

5) like i said, the 72 hammer made me rethink a lot of things pretty quickly.

-

what about you? i know you posted a reads list in 541, but i assume that's changed at this point?

Ydrasse, i ask: show me evidence HOW the TTJT wagon was losing momentum, quoting posts that suggests this was the case.

[72offsuit]

@italiano:

Spoiler:

I guess I'd be okay with a 72 lynch today, however I can't shake it that GuiltyLion was the one that broke the tie first and also pulled his vote away from DoctorPepper.

also on this, my move to TTJT was motivated primarily because I really didn't like how he was dancing around both DocPep and 72 slots, it felt like he was noncommittal about making reads or votes on either of the slots in question. Also because we really needed to consolidate on a lynch at that point and at that point I was fine with any of the three, if anything I was starting to have some doubts about DocPep

No, you're right he was, that's why I read him as such and wanted to keep an eye on him had he survived the lynch. Now we know he flipped green, so although he was suspicious by most (including me), I need to look at why it happened the way it did and see if I can make sense of it. 72 was being questioned (in post and in thought) by myself, Ydrasse, and Walter because of his and DoctorPepper's late day exchange, however I was the only one that voted for him. To be fair, I was a lot more suspicious than they were, but I especially thought Walter would vote 72, since he had been suspicious of him early in the day. And I'll have to recheck, but I don't ever remember Walter easing off or feeling better about 72 up to that point. Ydrasse was kind of touching on it, but to me it still seemed like DoctorPepper wouldn't have been her vote.

you have to understand fmpov how shady that hammer looked coming from 72, and fmpov it was a potential way for scum!72 to survive when votes started to pile up against him. it wasn't so much that jt was a threat but that it was the only option for self-preservation in that moment.

Self Preservation? He was tied at 3 with DoctorPepper and JT and everyone had voted. That's not self-preservation. And neither of the moves look good imo. Both GuiltyLion and 72 were suspicious of DoctorPepper for their own reasons and simply unvoted him to vote for a player that in both their cases were less scummy. 72 made a whole case for DoctorPepper and ended up voting for JT. GuiltyLion thought DoctorPepper was soft claiming as I did and voted him thinking him scum and then just didn't vote for him, so both moves look suspicious to me not just 72's. I have to say your self-preservation angle is strange at best and outright false at worse.

and for doctorpepper, i still had misgivings in 552. he was jumping on people who were voting him, his activity came only after the pressure on him started, and he was ignoring things that i found weird to ignore in lieu of tunneling the people who were after him. and when i came back, jt was already hammered and i was reading in the context of 72 doing that. seeing 72 slap down a vote and then go "oops" made me realize how 72 had already tried to get out of going toe to toe with dp and as i stated, i thought that him doing that could've been a way to avoid getting lynched as scum. my read of dp flipped pretty fast after that.

Why didn't you mention it then? I know your vote was already there and it didn't matter because TTJT was already hammered.

how is saying that it's self preservation false? fmpov, scum!72 sees that one of the wagons (that he was first upon) is dying out, leaving him competing with another one. one of the safety options is gone and he has to make sure that he as scum is not lynched, so he throws down a hammer onto jt and claims it's an accident so that things cannot be turned back onto him.

especially given the fact that, like i said, dp at that point was adamant about it being either dp or 72. a scum!72 realizes that in the event that it's between him and dp, and if dp goes down first there's a high chance the town focuses in on him the next day. that, or he gets voted off that day (meaning day 1) outright. so instead, it's better to turn the hammer onto someone outside of those two so he doesn't have to continue dealing with the pressure of dp's tunneling and insistence it's between them two. it's another option that, from his pov, could present greater odds of getting through the day.

and which part didn't i mention then? do you mean why didn't i mention my misgivings when it came to dp, or the fact that i thought his content had improved? the former i feel can be seen in that my vote was STILL on dp for a reason — he had gotten townier, but it isn't outside a realm of possibility that he was still scum to me given the fact of where his suspicions rested. a lot of this wasn't mentioned because i was gone from the time after i had asked dp some stuff and when 72 was hammered, and the hammer itself made me reconsider a lot of things at eod.

Spoiler:

what the hell

What does this mean? What are you talking about?

i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

And yet you still voted for him.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

Okay, but to be fair we are acting as if scum!72 would be cool, calm, and collected. He could have very well made a mistake under pressure. We say it's dumb because we're looking at it from a town perspective but as scum and being on edge, it could have very well been a slip up. At best he is just a townie who made a major mistake, but I think either way he should be the lynch today.

even in that post, i don't get why he called the vote itself empty. also that, and 121 where he states that he's fine keeping his vote on italiano, but he can imagine a world where his actions are towny, and he also agrees with your wagon as well and supports it from a distance. so he's pretty low in my poe. the two other people who i consider pretty low in it are voting him though which... . i think there's at least one scum in {italiano, jt, owen}.

What are you feeling now? I know this is old, but you have iso'd GuiltyLion & Walter. Have you done anyone else yet?

if 72 is scum the mishammer was definitely to get out of the 1v1 with dp.

Hate to beat a dead horse, but isn't this more reason for you not to have voted DoctorPepper?

also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

Do you feel more strong, equal, or less about this after the JT flip?

To me doctor pepper and jt are on two different sides where one is town vs one being scum.

This is interesting. Now with the JT flip, do you still feel this way?

Guilty Lion, in post 556 you mentioned:

"I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well."

Two questions:

1) Why was there no mention of T-T?
2) How do you feel now? Now that JT flipped townie? Is DoctorPepper the Scum?

1) i said what the hell because i came back to 72 claiming that he hadn't seen the vote on dp at all. it was a mess to come back to, lmfao.

2) yes. i voted for him when i thought he was scummy, and my vote stayed there after because despite improvements i still thought there was a chance dp could be scum.

3) yeah, that's fair, which is why my vote is on 72 as it is. in context with everything else it doesn't seem like it was an accidental vote given how much 72 benefited from it in that moment, but i have to consider all the possibilities.

4) ii still have some suspicions that are lingering in that pool i presented. i haven't gotten around to iso'ing either of you yet. i'm going to do it sometime during this day. you're not as high on my scumread list though, after that fiasco in d1.

for owen i have to reread, because i don't remember him ever making a push on me and i don't understand why he's saying that i'm one of two required partners for 72, and instead saying that you brought up a good point and then not offering his own opinions from the reread that he did. his response to guiltylion in 695 seems deflective of the pressure put onto him imo without giving reasons.

5) like i said, the 72 hammer made me rethink a lot of things pretty quickly.

-

what about you? i know you posted a reads list in 541, but i assume that's changed at this point?

Who gives 2 hoots that DP was adamant about lynching between the 2 of us. How does that affect !ScumMe's approach? DP is ALREADY voting for me, so cannot pose a further threat to! ScumMe.

[72offsuit]

@italiano:

Spoiler:

I guess I'd be okay with a 72 lynch today, however I can't shake it that GuiltyLion was the one that broke the tie first and also pulled his vote away from DoctorPepper.

also on this, my move to TTJT was motivated primarily because I really didn't like how he was dancing around both DocPep and 72 slots, it felt like he was noncommittal about making reads or votes on either of the slots in question. Also because we really needed to consolidate on a lynch at that point and at that point I was fine with any of the three, if anything I was starting to have some doubts about DocPep

No, you're right he was, that's why I read him as such and wanted to keep an eye on him had he survived the lynch. Now we know he flipped green, so although he was suspicious by most (including me), I need to look at why it happened the way it did and see if I can make sense of it. 72 was being questioned (in post and in thought) by myself, Ydrasse, and Walter because of his and DoctorPepper's late day exchange, however I was the only one that voted for him. To be fair, I was a lot more suspicious than they were, but I especially thought Walter would vote 72, since he had been suspicious of him early in the day. And I'll have to recheck, but I don't ever remember Walter easing off or feeling better about 72 up to that point. Ydrasse was kind of touching on it, but to me it still seemed like DoctorPepper wouldn't have been her vote.

you have to understand fmpov how shady that hammer looked coming from 72, and fmpov it was a potential way for scum!72 to survive when votes started to pile up against him. it wasn't so much that jt was a threat but that it was the only option for self-preservation in that moment.

Self Preservation? He was tied at 3 with DoctorPepper and JT and everyone had voted. That's not self-preservation. And neither of the moves look good imo. Both GuiltyLion and 72 were suspicious of DoctorPepper for their own reasons and simply unvoted him to vote for a player that in both their cases were less scummy. 72 made a whole case for DoctorPepper and ended up voting for JT. GuiltyLion thought DoctorPepper was soft claiming as I did and voted him thinking him scum and then just didn't vote for him, so both moves look suspicious to me not just 72's. I have to say your self-preservation angle is strange at best and outright false at worse.

and for doctorpepper, i still had misgivings in 552. he was jumping on people who were voting him, his activity came only after the pressure on him started, and he was ignoring things that i found weird to ignore in lieu of tunneling the people who were after him. and when i came back, jt was already hammered and i was reading in the context of 72 doing that. seeing 72 slap down a vote and then go "oops" made me realize how 72 had already tried to get out of going toe to toe with dp and as i stated, i thought that him doing that could've been a way to avoid getting lynched as scum. my read of dp flipped pretty fast after that.

Why didn't you mention it then? I know your vote was already there and it didn't matter because TTJT was already hammered.

how is saying that it's self preservation false? fmpov, scum!72 sees that one of the wagons (that he was first upon) is dying out, leaving him competing with another one. one of the safety options is gone and he has to make sure that he as scum is not lynched, so he throws down a hammer onto jt and claims it's an accident so that things cannot be turned back onto him.

especially given the fact that, like i said, dp at that point was adamant about it being either dp or 72. a scum!72 realizes that in the event that it's between him and dp, and if dp goes down first there's a high chance the town focuses in on him the next day. that, or he gets voted off that day (meaning day 1) outright. so instead, it's better to turn the hammer onto someone outside of those two so he doesn't have to continue dealing with the pressure of dp's tunneling and insistence it's between them two. it's another option that, from his pov, could present greater odds of getting through the day.

and which part didn't i mention then? do you mean why didn't i mention my misgivings when it came to dp, or the fact that i thought his content had improved? the former i feel can be seen in that my vote was STILL on dp for a reason — he had gotten townier, but it isn't outside a realm of possibility that he was still scum to me given the fact of where his suspicions rested. a lot of this wasn't mentioned because i was gone from the time after i had asked dp some stuff and when 72 was hammered, and the hammer itself made me reconsider a lot of things at eod.

Spoiler:

what the hell

What does this mean? What are you talking about?

i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

And yet you still voted for him.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

Okay, but to be fair we are acting as if scum!72 would be cool, calm, and collected. He could have very well made a mistake under pressure. We say it's dumb because we're looking at it from a town perspective but as scum and being on edge, it could have very well been a slip up. At best he is just a townie who made a major mistake, but I think either way he should be the lynch today.

even in that post, i don't get why he called the vote itself empty. also that, and 121 where he states that he's fine keeping his vote on italiano, but he can imagine a world where his actions are towny, and he also agrees with your wagon as well and supports it from a distance. so he's pretty low in my poe. the two other people who i consider pretty low in it are voting him though which... . i think there's at least one scum in {italiano, jt, owen}.

What are you feeling now? I know this is old, but you have iso'd GuiltyLion & Walter. Have you done anyone else yet?

if 72 is scum the mishammer was definitely to get out of the 1v1 with dp.

Hate to beat a dead horse, but isn't this more reason for you not to have voted DoctorPepper?

also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

Do you feel more strong, equal, or less about this after the JT flip?

To me doctor pepper and jt are on two different sides where one is town vs one being scum.

This is interesting. Now with the JT flip, do you still feel this way?

Guilty Lion, in post 556 you mentioned:

"I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well."

Two questions:

1) Why was there no mention of T-T?
2) How do you feel now? Now that JT flipped townie? Is DoctorPepper the Scum?

1) i said what the hell because i came back to 72 claiming that he hadn't seen the vote on dp at all. it was a mess to come back to, lmfao.

2) yes. i voted for him when i thought he was scummy, and my vote stayed there after because despite improvements i still thought there was a chance dp could be scum.

3) yeah, that's fair, which is why my vote is on 72 as it is. in context with everything else it doesn't seem like it was an accidental vote given how much 72 benefited from it in that moment, but i have to consider all the possibilities.

4) ii still have some suspicions that are lingering in that pool i presented. i haven't gotten around to iso'ing either of you yet. i'm going to do it sometime during this day. you're not as high on my scumread list though, after that fiasco in d1.

for owen i have to reread, because i don't remember him ever making a push on me and i don't understand why he's saying that i'm one of two required partners for 72, and instead saying that you brought up a good point and then not offering his own opinions from the reread that he did. his response to guiltylion in 695 seems deflective of the pressure put onto him imo without giving reasons.

5) like i said, the 72 hammer made me rethink a lot of things pretty quickly.

-

what about you? i know you posted a reads list in 541, but i assume that's changed at this point?

Who gives 2 hoots that DP was adamant about lynching between the 2 of us. How does that affect !ScumMe's approach? DP is ALREADY voting for me, so cannot pose a further threat to! ScumMe.

[72offsuit]

@italiano:

Spoiler:

I guess I'd be okay with a 72 lynch today, however I can't shake it that GuiltyLion was the one that broke the tie first and also pulled his vote away from DoctorPepper.

also on this, my move to TTJT was motivated primarily because I really didn't like how he was dancing around both DocPep and 72 slots, it felt like he was noncommittal about making reads or votes on either of the slots in question. Also because we really needed to consolidate on a lynch at that point and at that point I was fine with any of the three, if anything I was starting to have some doubts about DocPep

No, you're right he was, that's why I read him as such and wanted to keep an eye on him had he survived the lynch. Now we know he flipped green, so although he was suspicious by most (including me), I need to look at why it happened the way it did and see if I can make sense of it. 72 was being questioned (in post and in thought) by myself, Ydrasse, and Walter because of his and DoctorPepper's late day exchange, however I was the only one that voted for him. To be fair, I was a lot more suspicious than they were, but I especially thought Walter would vote 72, since he had been suspicious of him early in the day. And I'll have to recheck, but I don't ever remember Walter easing off or feeling better about 72 up to that point. Ydrasse was kind of touching on it, but to me it still seemed like DoctorPepper wouldn't have been her vote.

you have to understand fmpov how shady that hammer looked coming from 72, and fmpov it was a potential way for scum!72 to survive when votes started to pile up against him. it wasn't so much that jt was a threat but that it was the only option for self-preservation in that moment.

Self Preservation? He was tied at 3 with DoctorPepper and JT and everyone had voted. That's not self-preservation. And neither of the moves look good imo. Both GuiltyLion and 72 were suspicious of DoctorPepper for their own reasons and simply unvoted him to vote for a player that in both their cases were less scummy. 72 made a whole case for DoctorPepper and ended up voting for JT. GuiltyLion thought DoctorPepper was soft claiming as I did and voted him thinking him scum and then just didn't vote for him, so both moves look suspicious to me not just 72's. I have to say your self-preservation angle is strange at best and outright false at worse.

and for doctorpepper, i still had misgivings in 552. he was jumping on people who were voting him, his activity came only after the pressure on him started, and he was ignoring things that i found weird to ignore in lieu of tunneling the people who were after him. and when i came back, jt was already hammered and i was reading in the context of 72 doing that. seeing 72 slap down a vote and then go "oops" made me realize how 72 had already tried to get out of going toe to toe with dp and as i stated, i thought that him doing that could've been a way to avoid getting lynched as scum. my read of dp flipped pretty fast after that.

Why didn't you mention it then? I know your vote was already there and it didn't matter because TTJT was already hammered.

how is saying that it's self preservation false? fmpov, scum!72 sees that one of the wagons (that he was first upon) is dying out, leaving him competing with another one. one of the safety options is gone and he has to make sure that he as scum is not lynched, so he throws down a hammer onto jt and claims it's an accident so that things cannot be turned back onto him.

especially given the fact that, like i said, dp at that point was adamant about it being either dp or 72. a scum!72 realizes that in the event that it's between him and dp, and if dp goes down first there's a high chance the town focuses in on him the next day. that, or he gets voted off that day (meaning day 1) outright. so instead, it's better to turn the hammer onto someone outside of those two so he doesn't have to continue dealing with the pressure of dp's tunneling and insistence it's between them two. it's another option that, from his pov, could present greater odds of getting through the day.

and which part didn't i mention then? do you mean why didn't i mention my misgivings when it came to dp, or the fact that i thought his content had improved? the former i feel can be seen in that my vote was STILL on dp for a reason — he had gotten townier, but it isn't outside a realm of possibility that he was still scum to me given the fact of where his suspicions rested. a lot of this wasn't mentioned because i was gone from the time after i had asked dp some stuff and when 72 was hammered, and the hammer itself made me reconsider a lot of things at eod.

Spoiler:

what the hell

What does this mean? What are you talking about?

i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

And yet you still voted for him.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

Okay, but to be fair we are acting as if scum!72 would be cool, calm, and collected. He could have very well made a mistake under pressure. We say it's dumb because we're looking at it from a town perspective but as scum and being on edge, it could have very well been a slip up. At best he is just a townie who made a major mistake, but I think either way he should be the lynch today.

even in that post, i don't get why he called the vote itself empty. also that, and 121 where he states that he's fine keeping his vote on italiano, but he can imagine a world where his actions are towny, and he also agrees with your wagon as well and supports it from a distance. so he's pretty low in my poe. the two other people who i consider pretty low in it are voting him though which... . i think there's at least one scum in {italiano, jt, owen}.

What are you feeling now? I know this is old, but you have iso'd GuiltyLion & Walter. Have you done anyone else yet?

if 72 is scum the mishammer was definitely to get out of the 1v1 with dp.

Hate to beat a dead horse, but isn't this more reason for you not to have voted DoctorPepper?

also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

Do you feel more strong, equal, or less about this after the JT flip?

To me doctor pepper and jt are on two different sides where one is town vs one being scum.

This is interesting. Now with the JT flip, do you still feel this way?

Guilty Lion, in post 556 you mentioned:

"I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well."

Two questions:

1) Why was there no mention of T-T?
2) How do you feel now? Now that JT flipped townie? Is DoctorPepper the Scum?

1) i said what the hell because i came back to 72 claiming that he hadn't seen the vote on dp at all. it was a mess to come back to, lmfao.

2) yes. i voted for him when i thought he was scummy, and my vote stayed there after because despite improvements i still thought there was a chance dp could be scum.

3) yeah, that's fair, which is why my vote is on 72 as it is. in context with everything else it doesn't seem like it was an accidental vote given how much 72 benefited from it in that moment, but i have to consider all the possibilities.

4) ii still have some suspicions that are lingering in that pool i presented. i haven't gotten around to iso'ing either of you yet. i'm going to do it sometime during this day. you're not as high on my scumread list though, after that fiasco in d1.

for owen i have to reread, because i don't remember him ever making a push on me and i don't understand why he's saying that i'm one of two required partners for 72, and instead saying that you brought up a good point and then not offering his own opinions from the reread that he did. his response to guiltylion in 695 seems deflective of the pressure put onto him imo without giving reasons.

5) like i said, the 72 hammer made me rethink a lot of things pretty quickly.

-

what about you? i know you posted a reads list in 541, but i assume that's changed at this point?

Who gives 2 hoots that DP was adamant about lynching between the 2 of us. How does that affect !ScumMe's approach? DP is ALREADY voting for me, so cannot pose a further threat to! ScumMe.

[72offsuit]

VOTE: Unowen

[ItalianoVD]

@italiano:

Spoiler:

I guess I'd be okay with a 72 lynch today, however I can't shake it that GuiltyLion was the one that broke the tie first and also pulled his vote away from DoctorPepper.

also on this, my move to TTJT was motivated primarily because I really didn't like how he was dancing around both DocPep and 72 slots, it felt like he was noncommittal about making reads or votes on either of the slots in question. Also because we really needed to consolidate on a lynch at that point and at that point I was fine with any of the three, if anything I was starting to have some doubts about DocPep

No, you're right he was, that's why I read him as such and wanted to keep an eye on him had he survived the lynch. Now we know he flipped green, so although he was suspicious by most (including me), I need to look at why it happened the way it did and see if I can make sense of it. 72 was being questioned (in post and in thought) by myself, Ydrasse, and Walter because of his and DoctorPepper's late day exchange, however I was the only one that voted for him. To be fair, I was a lot more suspicious than they were, but I especially thought Walter would vote 72, since he had been suspicious of him early in the day. And I'll have to recheck, but I don't ever remember Walter easing off or feeling better about 72 up to that point. Ydrasse was kind of touching on it, but to me it still seemed like DoctorPepper wouldn't have been her vote.

you have to understand fmpov how shady that hammer looked coming from 72, and fmpov it was a potential way for scum!72 to survive when votes started to pile up against him. it wasn't so much that jt was a threat but that it was the only option for self-preservation in that moment.

Self Preservation? He was tied at 3 with DoctorPepper and JT and everyone had voted. That's not self-preservation. And neither of the moves look good imo. Both GuiltyLion and 72 were suspicious of DoctorPepper for their own reasons and simply unvoted him to vote for a player that in both their cases were less scummy. 72 made a whole case for DoctorPepper and ended up voting for JT. GuiltyLion thought DoctorPepper was soft claiming as I did and voted him thinking him scum and then just didn't vote for him, so both moves look suspicious to me not just 72's. I have to say your self-preservation angle is strange at best and outright false at worse.

and for doctorpepper, i still had misgivings in 552. he was jumping on people who were voting him, his activity came only after the pressure on him started, and he was ignoring things that i found weird to ignore in lieu of tunneling the people who were after him. and when i came back, jt was already hammered and i was reading in the context of 72 doing that. seeing 72 slap down a vote and then go "oops" made me realize how 72 had already tried to get out of going toe to toe with dp and as i stated, i thought that him doing that could've been a way to avoid getting lynched as scum. my read of dp flipped pretty fast after that.

Why didn't you mention it then? I know your vote was already there and it didn't matter because TTJT was already hammered.

how is saying that it's self preservation false? fmpov, scum!72 sees that one of the wagons (that he was first upon) is dying out, leaving him competing with another one. one of the safety options is gone and he has to make sure that he as scum is not lynched, so he throws down a hammer onto jt and claims it's an accident so that things cannot be turned back onto him.

especially given the fact that, like i said, dp at that point was adamant about it being either dp or 72. a scum!72 realizes that in the event that it's between him and dp, and if dp goes down first there's a high chance the town focuses in on him the next day. that, or he gets voted off that day (meaning day 1) outright. so instead, it's better to turn the hammer onto someone outside of those two so he doesn't have to continue dealing with the pressure of dp's tunneling and insistence it's between them two. it's another option that, from his pov, could present greater odds of getting through the day.

and which part didn't i mention then? do you mean why didn't i mention my misgivings when it came to dp, or the fact that i thought his content had improved? the former i feel can be seen in that my vote was STILL on dp for a reason — he had gotten townier, but it isn't outside a realm of possibility that he was still scum to me given the fact of where his suspicions rested. a lot of this wasn't mentioned because i was gone from the time after i had asked dp some stuff and when 72 was hammered, and the hammer itself made me reconsider a lot of things at eod.

Spoiler:

what the hell

What does this mean? What are you talking about?

i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

And yet you still voted for him.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

Okay, but to be fair we are acting as if scum!72 would be cool, calm, and collected. He could have very well made a mistake under pressure. We say it's dumb because we're looking at it from a town perspective but as scum and being on edge, it could have very well been a slip up. At best he is just a townie who made a major mistake, but I think either way he should be the lynch today.

even in that post, i don't get why he called the vote itself empty. also that, and 121 where he states that he's fine keeping his vote on italiano, but he can imagine a world where his actions are towny, and he also agrees with your wagon as well and supports it from a distance. so he's pretty low in my poe. the two other people who i consider pretty low in it are voting him though which... . i think there's at least one scum in {italiano, jt, owen}.

What are you feeling now? I know this is old, but you have iso'd GuiltyLion & Walter. Have you done anyone else yet?

if 72 is scum the mishammer was definitely to get out of the 1v1 with dp.

Hate to beat a dead horse, but isn't this more reason for you not to have voted DoctorPepper?

also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

Do you feel more strong, equal, or less about this after the JT flip?

To me doctor pepper and jt are on two different sides where one is town vs one being scum.

This is interesting. Now with the JT flip, do you still feel this way?

Guilty Lion, in post 556 you mentioned:

"I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well."

Two questions:

1) Why was there no mention of T-T?
2) How do you feel now? Now that JT flipped townie? Is DoctorPepper the Scum?

1) i said what the hell because i came back to 72 claiming that he hadn't seen the vote on dp at all. it was a mess to come back to, lmfao.

2) yes. i voted for him when i thought he was scummy, and my vote stayed there after because despite improvements i still thought there was a chance dp could be scum.

3) yeah, that's fair, which is why my vote is on 72 as it is. in context with everything else it doesn't seem like it was an accidental vote given how much 72 benefited from it in that moment, but i have to consider all the possibilities.

4) ii still have some suspicions that are lingering in that pool i presented. i haven't gotten around to iso'ing either of you yet. i'm going to do it sometime during this day. you're not as high on my scumread list though, after that fiasco in d1.

for owen i have to reread, because i don't remember him ever making a push on me and i don't understand why he's saying that i'm one of two required partners for 72, and instead saying that you brought up a good point and then not offering his own opinions from the reread that he did. his response to guiltylion in 695 seems deflective of the pressure put onto him imo without giving reasons.

5) like i said, the 72 hammer made me rethink a lot of things pretty quickly.

You’re either a great scum or a townie because this was pretty good. Just basing it on how it sounds and looks, I’d have to say I don’t feel any scummy vibes, but like I said you could be playing a great town role. For now I’m gonna trust you.

what about you? i know you posted a reads list in 541, but i assume that's changed at this point?

For the record when something is too easy in this game I have always questioned it and always will. I only have trust in myself at the moment. I know I townread the people I did and scumread the people I did, but I feel I need to throw all that out and start fresh. The worse thing I could do if believe that I'm not wrong on my reads. The final moments of Day 1 and the lack of a night kill makes me think this way.

[ItalianoVD]

Huh? I see a lot has happened. I was expecting 72 to be the one getting the votes. I was certain Walter was gonna vote for him since he had suspicions of him earlier. Voting for TTJT was kind of weird for me. And after 72’s move onto TTJT I have to assume JT is town because if 72 is scum it would be extremely dumb to bus your partner when you didn’t have to. Unless neither of them are scum. I don’t know what to think now. I wish it was as easy and JT flips scum, but if not I don’t see why we shouldn’t/wouldn’t vote for 72 on Day 2. That’s who I expected to go anyway. Ehh.

Why were you expecting mpre votes on me?

Because in my mind I knew Walter was suspicious of you. Ydrasse said her bit about you and DoctorPepper. I figured Walter to vote you. I figured Ydrasse would go back over the scenario again and possibly vote you. This is after JT tied up the score so I thought it was very possible for it to play out the way it did in my mind.

Suddenly TTJT's top scumreads are the top 2 wagons.
Yeah nah.

VOTE: TTJT

You can’t tell me that you weren’t aware of the vote count. That just doesn’t make sense to me.

I can say that and that's what happened.

Sure you can say it, but I don’t believe you. And if you’re careless like that now, who’s to say you won’t be careless like that later?

Lol. Nice so im scum either way. Fits nicely with your tunnel

At best you’re bad townie, so either way it’s not a help to the town.

What point are you trying to make in this post?

You’re “mistake” was careless as townie and calculated as scum. Neither helps town which is why I’m voting for you. I can’t and won’t speak for anyone else.

[ItalianoVD]

If 72 is scum, he has played this game very poorly imo

This is why we need to spend more time on UNOwen, Ydrasse, Mini, and myself. 72 strikes me as a pretty capable player, I don't think he instahammers unless there's a benefit to him. Like I said, I think the worst case scenario is his partner is Ydrasse or UNOwen and set to have a really good chance to endgame, in which case we need to do as much as we can to give ourselves a chance at solving them. I myself don't want to be an easy mislynch for scum here

Ydrasse wouldn’t surprise me actually. One thing that hasn’t changed however is my read on UNOwen. Mini is an outlier. I think that slot is cursed It seems like it’s a scum slot that the newbies don’t know how to play. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised with you either, but unfortunately anything that I have towards you is only speculation and hypotheticals, so with nothing I’m choosing to trust you for now.

[ItalianoVD]

“It seems like it’s a scum slot that the newbies don’t know how to play...”

I forgot to add “...or experienced players who don’t want to play it.”

[UNOwen]

@72: what is your read on Ydrasse and GuiltyLion?

[UNOwen]

With GuiltyLion's "bad play" point: If 72 had a motive for quickhammering JT, then clearly so did his scumpartner.

If the question is "why would scum be so brazen?" then the answer is that they think people will ask that question and let them get away with it. Especially in this case where GuiltyLion came right out the gates pushing that defence. It's just a logic trap and not really worth trying to outguess.

A better way to determine his alignment is based on what he says, so I look forward to hearing him expand on 718.

[UNOwen]

for owen i have to reread, because i don't remember him ever making a push on me and i don't understand why he's saying that i'm one of two required partners for 72,

and instead saying that you brought up a good point and then not offering his own opinions from the reread that he did

. his response to guiltylion in 695 seems deflective of the pressure put onto him imo without giving reasons.

Not sure why this is odd, the point was straightforward and I agreed with it. Your explanation is that you reconsidered after 72 hammered, which doesn't seem all that coherent (if someone is getting townier and townier, but it takes the person they were pushing against scumclaiming for that to be obvious, then they weren't getting townier and townier). I know you have said you were thinking his posts had improved anyway and just didn't have the opportunity to mention it but I can only take your word for that.

For why you are on the suspect list: there's nothing stand out bad about your posts. The only notable thing is your odd prioritisation for iso's, which you were already asked about during day 1. So generally you are town-read and have not faced any pressure. That is exactly the sort of position I could see 72 staking the game on. If you are not so confident on GL-72, who else do you think 72's scumpartner could be?

[GuiltyLion]

No death N1 has 5 possibilities:
1. Mafia was not able to submit a factional kill (indicating someone who may have forgotten about the game or site-flaked)
2. Doctor blocks the night kill
3. Jailkeeper blocks the night kill by correctly targetting the Night Kill
4. Jailkeeper blocks the night kill by correctly targetting the Mafia assigned to do the NK.
5. Mafia submits no kill on purpose

I don't want to go in assuming it's 2-4 when 1 could be likely. I also think that while 5 is unlikely for a newbie, I would not put it past any of you to be that bold at Day 2

so first things first, I don't think 1 is likely - I can't think of a single time I have seen a scum team fail to submit a kill because both players were inactive, and every player in this game has been online and posted since. I think we should assume 2-4 for all intents and purposes.

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty Lion, in post 556 you mentioned: "I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well."

Two questions:

1) Why was there no mention of T-T?
2) How do you feel now? Now that JT flipped townie? Is DoctorPepper the Scum?

1) Frankly I just thought it was likely we had at least one mafia in the two given how the day was playing out. It could have been T-T, but that wasn't what I was considering at the time

2) Given 72's hammer and the way DoctorPepper had continued the engagement prior to and past that point, my read on 72 soured dramatically, and I don't think DoctorPepper is likely to be mafia anymore.

[GuiltyLion]

With GuiltyLion's "bad play" point: If 72 had a motive for quickhammering JT, then clearly so did his scumpartner.

If the question is "why would scum be so brazen?" then the answer is that they think people will ask that question and let them get away with it. Especially in this case where GuiltyLion came right out the gates pushing that defence. It's just a logic trap and not really worth trying to outguess.

This is a fair response. I guess my pride in myself as a scum player is more on the line when I'm making that defense than my actual alignment in this game

[GuiltyLion]

I've honestly been trawling through UNOwen/Ydrasse's D2 responses and their ISO and it's hard for me to find things that stand out as disingenuous, if either of them are scum they're playing really solidly

Basically 72 scum requires his partner to be either you or Ydrasse.

72's push against DrP was uneccessary from a scum perspective, unless he bought in to the "softing" talk in which case he was aggressively pr hunting. That's not a way to play when your partner is everyone's compromise lynch.

I guess as a starting point, UNOwen I want to get more of your thoughts on this. Are you really comfortable totally ruling out Mini as a partner based on this logic? I get where you're coming from and I've been thinking much the same way, but I think I still have hesitation in that if his partner

is

the compromise lynch and now he's perceiving that he's losing a 1v1 with DP - what if he felt the loss was inevitable if he was hammered yesterday and hence he took the first opportunity to guarantee survival for at least one more day?

I know I'm assuming the conclusion there instead of showing why the evidence supports the conclusion, but I don't know if I want to completely rule out the plausibility of 72/Mini pairing solely on the idea that 72 would have slow played it a little more in that case. You seem to be saying you are willing to do that, and that you'd chain eliminate Ydrasse and myself back to back, and I want to know if you don't have any doubts/uncertainty about that

[GuiltyLion]

I've also been revisiting these posts from 72 immediately after my 218, particularly these sections

4. Voting a replacing out/AFK player feels like a waste of a vote, and basically suiting scum agenda its not like pi can reply.
Even in getting a reply from the replacement here, its very easy for !scumSera to read the thread and take the path thats best suits scumagenda, as they are not tied to their predecessors "reads"

Voting/FoSing a lurker in !townPi/now-Sera (easy mislynch target), as well as a "competent" player in myself (removal of a potential threat), would certainly suit !scumagenda.
Obviously that depends on pi/Sera's alignment. [not that I;m a particularly good player or anything, but I do ahave a couple of games under my belt]

This first part seems to be meant to shade my pressure on the pi slot and also say that it's bad because !scumSera could handle my pressure? I hadn't caught this before but it's a bit weird that 72 thinks my vote is bad because scum will be able to handle it - it still means I'm voting scum.

There's also a hedge on Sera throughout, and a significant portion of the rest of 234 (too much to quote but I suggest going back to the post) is meant to discredit my townreads on TTJT and UNOwen, I suspect potentially as a means of distraction on the pii/Sera/Mini vote if you're town UNOwen.

Overall gamestate-wise, Pii lurking and being replaced and DP being on VLA has resulted in the same (relatively) few people posting.

Uno is still on IVD (the leading wagon), who Uno originally voted for in RVS, which is telling, I think, given Uno is also a leading wagon.

My preferred lynchpool is {TTJT , Uno}

As it stands, I wouldn't lose sleep over lynching pi/Sera if it comes to it.

I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

These things don't look so bad in ISO as associatives when uncertain about 72's slot, but if I assume that he's scum, I think it points to pi/Sera over UNOwen.

[GuiltyLion]

The shift that happens here is also pretty noteworthy now that we know TTJT is town

The situation was this: 72offsuit driving a TTJT wagon, I had joined as the third vote, and we were actively pressuring Mini who seemed tentative/unwilling to commit on TTJT.

Votecount 1.08

TheThirteenthJT (3) -

72offsuit, UNOwen, GuiltyLion

UNOwen (2) -

TheThirteenthJT, ItalianoVD

MiniMegabyte (1) -

WaltertheDunce10

ItalianoVD (1) -

Ydrasse

WaltertheDunce10 (1) -

DoctorPepper

Not Voting (1) -

MiniMegabyte

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-28 20:00:00).

TheThirteenthJT is V/LA until 6/27.

Then, Mini caves and votes TTJT in 387. This put TTJT to L-1.

Immediately afterwards in 403 is when 72 starts his push on DP. Which leads to the next VC looking like this:

Votecount 1.09

TheThirteenthJT (3) -

UNOwen, GuiltyLion, MiniMegabyte

UNOwen (2) -

TheThirteenthJT, ItalianoVD

MiniMegabyte (1) -

WaltertheDunce10

ItalianoVD (1) -

Ydrasse

WaltertheDunce10 (1) -

DoctorPepper

DoctorPepper (1) -

72offsuit

Not Voting (0) -

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-28 20:00:00).

TheThirteenthJT is V/LA until 6/27.

I think a plausible explanation for the DP push is this (assuming a scum!Mini partner): 72 noticed that both scum were on a wagon on town, and got nervous about how this was not setting them up well for D2 as townies tend to look for at least one scum on-wagon, and two of the off-wagon slots (Ydrasse/Walter) were very widely townread. Thus, by starting a push on DP, he either shifts attention away from TTJT (which leads to TTJT being a viable elimination candidate later in the game if DP wagon goes through), or he sets himself up to push DP again on D2 and also for townies to make themselves look worse by piling on TTJT past this point.

[UNOwen]

I guess as a starting point, UNOwen I want to get more of your thoughts on this. Are you really comfortable totally ruling out Mini as a partner based on this logic? I get where you're coming from and I've been thinking much the same way, but I think I still have hesitation in that if his partner

is

the compromise lynch and now he's perceiving that he's losing a 1v1 with DP - what if he felt the loss was inevitable if he was hammered yesterday and hence he took the first opportunity to guarantee survival for at least one more day?

If we take this hypothetical and say 72 feels the situation is desperate, I don't know why he decides to kamikaze himself instead of attempting to throw Mini under the bus - something he had already set up. We are agreed he is a strong player, even if he was under pressure do we really think he decides Mini is the better bet to win the game than he is?

I know I'm assuming the conclusion there instead of showing why the evidence supports the conclusion, but I don't know if I want to completely rule out the plausibility of 72/Mini pairing solely on the idea that 72 would have slow played it a little more in that case. You seem to be saying you are willing to do that, and that you'd chain eliminate Ydrasse and myself back to back, and I want to know if you don't have any doubts/uncertainty about that

Day 1 ended in a way that I was so sure wouldn't happen that I actually suspected JT for entertaining the possibility, so I'm aware that I need to keep an open mind. However I am confident in my logic here and I am confident it is either you or Ydrasse.

[UNOwen]

I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

I don't know the answer to your question, but I don't think it is as significant as you suggest. Both myself and JT were "scumreads" whereas pi was just a lurker. So there's a logic to the post even if he was faking it. I see what you are saying, that he was keeping pi on the table but out of the limelight. I'm not convinced that is the obvious motivation behind the post.

Not a fan of the vote analysis because it skips over a couple of important points that are not reflected in the vote count:
1) 72 had already unvoted JT by the time Mini joined the wagon
2) His next vote was then against Mini (which clashes with your suggestion above about 72 keeping the slot out of attention)

I think a plausible explanation for the DP push is this (assuming a scum!Mini partner): 72 noticed that both scum were on a wagon on town, and got nervous about

how this was not setting them up well for D2 as townies tend to look for at least one scum on-wagon, and two of the off-wagon slots (Ydrasse/Walter) were very widely townread.

Thus, by starting a push on DP, he either shifts attention away from TTJT (which leads to TTJT being a viable elimination candidate later in the game if DP wagon goes through), or he sets himself up to push DP again on D2 and also for townies to make themselves look worse by piling on TTJT past this point.

I might just be tired but I don't understand what you're saying in the bolded - could you rephrase that?
On the broader theory, yes that is plausible, though it also fits with you as the partner. Once 72 unvoted JT, he changed his pool to {Mini, DrP} and actually voted against Mini in 383. He then switched his vote to DrP in 404, which is after 395 from DrP, the post both you and Italiano interpreted as a pr soft. So that tallies with my idea that he was pr hunting.

I think you've raised some reasonable points but in the end this is the scenario 72-Mini requires: 72 knows his scum partner is not trusted by anyone, very new to the game and liable to be voted out at some point. He decides the best play is to make an attention grabbing push against DoctorPepper even though the lead wagon is a townie. When this counter push meets resistance he recalculates, decides the best he can hope for is to survive to day 2 and quickhammers in the hope that Mini can win the game from there.

I don't believe that. The alternative is that 72 has a well positioned scum partner, who he has confidence can win the game and then it becomes more plausible. The risky play is less risky and the quickhammer calculation is more reasonable (presuming he suspected JT was a pr).

[Micc]

.