Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[DonCorleone]

Honestly I just can't see Koba as scum here.

and Wugs ISO reads as way more scummy - We really will hit a jackpot if we lynch Wugs and he's scum.

Mmmm, nah, we’re lynching koba

[DonCorleone]

Idgaf if wugs iso reads more scummy, they’re outside the coalition and we’re lynching inside

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

cmon read wug iso and tell me that doesn't look like a scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Idgaf if wugs iso reads more scummy, they’re outside the coalition and we’re lynching inside

How do you know inside is the better play ? if we hit scum outside we get so much EV swing don't we?

[DonCorleone]

BECAUSE THERE IS CONFIRMED SCUM INSIDE THE COALITION AND THERE MAY BE 2 SCUM INSIDE

And scum are close to forced to kill outside anyway so if you ARE gonna lynch outside you sure as shit don’t do it on D1

[Datisi]

Vote count 1.36

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2020-07-07 13:00:00)

execution

DkKoba (4):

DonCorleone, Klick, Wug, SleeperSoul

PookyTheMagicalBear (2):

Alduskkel, Clover Ebi

Wug (1):

DkKoba

SleeperSoul (1):

Deimos27

not voting (1):

PookyTheMagicalBear

flavour

mod notes

• Play nice.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

ok but if we lynch koba and he flips scum - we still don't know where the 2nd scum is -

if we lynch wug and he flips scum - we have a clear path to winning the game?

[DonCorleone]

We lynch koba and he flips scum and we look at his interactions and solve the game from there

Personally I feel like there’s pretty good odds on it being that we lynch you!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

wait you think I'm scum with Koba? lol

[DonCorleone]

I don’t think it’s implausible

[DonCorleone]

Given that you’re pushing practically the same angle rn idk why you think that would be an odd conclusion to come to?

[Klick]

@all: we're lynching on coalition until we lynch scum. Everyone on-coalition has a 30% chance of being scum at base-level; everyone off-coalition has a 12.5% chance of being scum (and there might not be scum at all there).

Pooky what are your thoughts on this

[DkKoba]

giving intent to hammer myself in 24 hours. I'm done arguing with walls

[DkKoba]

at least with me out of the equation it makes scum have to scramble to figure out a nightkill that doesn't incriminate themselves.

[Klick]

In fact Pooky, if you're town, and I'm town, our odds of hitting scum if we literally vote randomly in the coalition are 4/9, which is Very High

[DkKoba]

whatever the team is. because Iknow I was the n1 kill if I wasn't getting tunneled rm

[DkKoba]

shut up klick you're just mechposting rn bc ur probably scum and don't want to face that you don't even want to read anyone right now.

[DkKoba]

if either klick or wug flip town i do trust that the rest of town can figure it out anyways.

[DkKoba]

people not even fucking questioning why klick and wug insta voted me with no reason. I see why sleeper and DC did. and dc a fool rn locked into their tunnel bc they're buttmad they were kicked out of the coalition.

[DkKoba]

yall town on my wagon the type of players to be too scared to hang a PR claim in a game even if they scummy. just because of mechanics

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

@all: we're lynching on coalition until we lynch scum. Everyone on-coalition has a 30% chance of being scum at base-level; everyone off-coalition has a 12.5% chance of being scum (and there might not be scum at all there).

Pooky what are your thoughts on this

I don't really get the math breakdown here - but even if we were to assume the math is right which it probably is, it kind of doesn't look at people's posting and behavior and breaks the game down to basically a random dice throw if we just play the numbers.


I agree with Koba's read of Wug - I think if we flip Wug as scum we can basically lock-win this game as town assuming Koba/Sleeper are town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Given that you’re pushing practically the same angle rn idk why you think that would be an odd conclusion to come to?

we kinda fought pretty hard for like half of day 1 - you think that was just scum theater?

[DkKoba]

using statistics like that are a lazy way of avoiding confronting your own reads.

what information are people looking out of a town flip of me ?

we just toss away a ML that's it

[Klick]

Inevitably we are going to have to whittle down the coalition. There is definitely at least one scum there. Those are slots we HAVE to find scum in at some point. Why would we put it off chasing a rabbit hole that might only have town in it?

I agree that Wug is scummy. I don't KNOW that Wug is scum. I KNOW that at least one of Koba/Pooky/Sleeper/Clover is scum. At this point, regardless of any townreads you might have on those players, you need to adjust them relative to each other because there IS scum there.

Wug/Aldus/Deimos/Don might be scummy. Hell, they were left out of the coalition because they couldn't get townread enough. But you're either shooting 1/4 there, or you're literally lynching in a pool of four town. And you can't claim you're that confident in all of Don/Deimos/Aldus being town, because you didn't have them in your coalition.

Put aside your reads for a sec and solve with the information that we've been given.

[Wug]

Wug/Aldus/Deimos/Don might be scummy. Hell, they were left out of the coalition because they couldn't get townread enough. But you're either shooting 1/4 there, or you're literally lynching in a pool of four town. And you can't claim you're that confident in all of Don/Deimos/Aldus being town, because you didn't have them in your coalition.

actually
looking at this
kind of think both scum are in the coalition

(i know it would be better if someone else said that)