Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Almost50]

VOTE: A50

Stop trying to throw the game and do the right thing.

And you wonder why I leave you out when I mention NK priorities???

[Something_Smart]

A50 have you ever heard of a hypothetical statement.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: A50

Unless I hear back on the proxying question I should vote before my V/LA and this is the best place for it.

[Almost50]

I'm fucking tempted to go berserk and self-hammer. That wouldn't be fair to Town though (provided their name is not Menalque), so I'm going to wait for Maria's hammer to go call Menalque names in the dead thread.

[Almost50]

And yes, I did hammer myself before as town.

[Menalque]

I don’t really think it’s that unreasonable that I’m voting you given that I haven’t TR you all game and have just been trusting in skitter and Blake?

[Menalque]

UNVOTE:

Not quite ready to end day yet

[ofrhz]

@mod can I proxy my vote while I'm on V/LA?

Sure

[ofrhz]

VOTE COUNT 4.6

Something_Smart [3]:

Almost50 [4321], PenguinPower [4392], MariaR [4444]

-- [L-1]

Almost50 [2]:

Bingle [4253], Something_Smart [4452]

Not Voting [1]:

Menalque [4456]

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to hammer.
Day 4 ends in

(expired on 2020-07-10 11:30:00)

Game Notes:

Something_Smart v/la until Sunday

[PenguinPower]

Mena, you’re killing me.

[Menalque]

VOTE: almost50

Hammer away bird friend

Good luck to all tomorrow if I’m wrong

[Menalque]

Please remember to think about and fully discuss the jailkeep xoxo

[PenguinPower]

I...wanted to hammer SS.

[PenguinPower]

Why did you switch over?

[Menalque]

I don’t really believe that A50 is town. I feel more like he’s playing in a way that he’s compelled to play because of who needs to be lynched for a win than that he’s naturally developing his reads over time

I am not certain about this and have major doubts especially given the strength of the TRs on him from skitter and Blake

But I don’t really see how anyone else is scum now

[Menalque]

Redoing the VCA I think Datisi makes the most sense as the JOAT. As of now it's Datisi > S_S >> Bingle for me. PP is TOTALLY off the table for me here. I mean, TOTALLY.

I already explained the JOAT must've used the RB shot on N1 already.

is this just because skitt's shot went through last night?

@a50

Yes. But it's like, if it's you (i.e. not S_S) then you might've hoped she would be shooting S_S instead? My brain is going wound in circles at this point.

i just wanna point out you cannot argue that (1) JOAT used their roleblock on night 1 and (2) datisi is the JOAT who didn't move on night 1 simultaneously.

if it's you (i.e. not S_S) then you might've hoped she would be shooting S_S instead

Like.. if S_S i JOAT then I can't see him not blocking skitter's shot unless he had already used up the RB shot. Period.

New line: If it's Datisi then he didn't block skitter hoping that she will shoot S_S and not FB.

Two separate thoughts of two separate suspects

VOTE: Bingle

Just to make a statement. I acknowledge the loss already and congratulate you on yet another scum!win over me.

@Menalque: JFTR, PP doesn't block you and shoot BB here, and especially not when you have announced being on him. Instead, PP would hust stay put and holster, thus implicating Maria. The RB on you was done precisely to prevent a hrd clear on PP when somebody does die.

Now I dunno why Bingle didn't think of THAT. He probably wanted the game to end faster?? I dunno. All I know is (1) if you do the VCA assuming Bingle is red it makes MUCH more sense than with the assumption PP is red, (2) Bingle is back to his favourite hobby: shake "monkeyman" just before LyLo. Did you notice how he has been TRing me ALL game, only to come TODAY to the conclusion my voting pattern looks bad?? And (3) Bingle already said if it was me, PP & him in LyLo that he will convince me to vote PP to make it equal. I -and PP- know exactly what he is referring to, but -also- it was a "soft scum claim" to refer to in post-game when he goes "nya nya nya, I pulled yet another one on you two, and especially on A50".

I was going to stay silent and let you guys mislynch whoever you wanted today and then vote Bingle in LyLo, but with your declaration you are OK handing Bingle the win I am afraid he may lynch PP and kill S_S using the Ninja shot and have you side by him in LyLo.

I suggest I should be the lynch today if all 3 of you vow to lynch Bingle in LyLo after I have been confirmed. That is my one and only request.

This is a really weird approach to my eyes. If his thinking was dats -> S_S -> bingle, why does he push bingle immediately at the start of today? And to me, that’s likely because he knows that if S_S is lynched today he’s on the chopping block tomorrow

Whereas if bingle is lynched, then yes he looks bad but S_S is probably the perfect slot to be going up against in mylo/lylo if he’s town

[Menalque]

Also, of the people who let skitter shoot: A50 knows she’s never shooting him. She might shoot his partner who he’s already distanced from (but very weakly if you actually check his ISO) or she might shoot bingle, either way I think those are okay outcomes for A50 in a way that I honestly doubt is acceptable for Bingle when he still has a roleblock. I also just think that mechanically S_S is unlikely to do that, and I think bingle is a particular threat to scum!A50 because he doesn’t think that S_S/lilith is S/S and is likely to oppose that in a lylo scenario (which he’s done). If that logic is good, it comes down to (A50, you) and rn I just can’t see you as scum

[Menalque]

I don’t see how your overall game really makes sense, whereas A50 was early on lilith but then changed over to S_S with the statement that he was a “better flip because if lilith is town she’ll re-evaluate”. Then pushed María once S_S went down instead of changing back to lilith which seems a little odd to me. And then changes back to Maria later on in what looks optically very good but which doesn’t necessarily fit with the story fmpov — why not go back to lilith once S_S goes down? I think he wanted to see how maria would go and then change for the bus credit

[Menalque]

VOTE: bingle

Sorry, skitts, but I'm not gonna sheep you on this one. Bingle not trying to take control of the game is town indicative of him. Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them, but in that case the other scum is/are in our town reads, which I find to be an even harder proposition. Like, does something like Bingle + PP/menalque (or both) look feasible to you?

The question is: If we were pushing a scum partner of Bingle, why did not Bingle intervene to assist his p and redirect the pressure elsewhere. Bingle is pretty good at directing the flow when he is scum.

This also seems... inconsistent with his later take on bingle? Like bingle didn’t do any of the things that A50 thinks bingle does as scum so why does he open today pushing bingle instead of pushing S_S when his prior posting has indicated that he should believe that the game ends with lynching S_S

[Menalque]

And finally: it felt performative? The “please lynch me if only so that my top scumread is lynched in lylo” when everyone knows that basically never happens, follows by him flipping back to S_S when he said he thought bingle’s reaction to my push couldn’t be scum, followed by him calling me out on voting him which I’m dubbing AtI or Appeal to Insecurity which is when you try to get someone to not vote you by bringing up how you’ll give them shit postgame

[Menalque]

Bingle is pretty good at directing the flow, and yet bingle more or less probably /didn’t/ do that this game as evidenced by how he didn’t get out of the lynchpool until I mech cleared him

So given that, I don’t really see why he feels that way about bingle being scum later on, and I think he’s been trying to pocket you because I don’t think you’re as obvtown as he’s been suggesting. Which makes a lot of sense in an endgame where he needs you to vote bingle > him, which I think is where we’d be headed in a world where mylo is (you, Maria, bingle, A50)

[Menalque]

My "broad" lynch pool is in Bingle/S_S/Datisi, but realistically I can't see past S_S being the JOAT. The only time S_S voted was for gobble, He even refused to vote lillith while being the counterwagon.

Also S_S is the only one who had the motive to actually shoot skitter here. Bingle would have probably let her shoot another night at least (unlikely for her to shoot him and he likes to play it risky anyway), and Datisi wasn't even in skitter's pool for shots, so even less likely to have killed her over Blake.

I also agree that both Maria & Blake are mechanically most likely town (but I'll keep SRing Maria anyway because it's a ...)

Spoiler:

Redoing the VCA I think Datisi makes the most sense as the JOAT. As of now it's Datisi > S_S >> Bingle for me. PP is TOTALLY off the table for me here. I mean, TOTALLY.

I just feel like there’s a pattern here of A50’s reads adjusting to where he needs them to be rather than what actually makes sense for him

It’s kinda the same thing on D1 where he said he was 50% on gobbles as a VT but then pre-emptively hammered him

[Menalque]

So in conclusion, looking back at the game: I, individually, think A50 makes the most sense and would like him lynched. If he’s town, I think that scum is very likely in S_S and PP and idk which but I’d probably lynch S_S because so many people have called him scum throughout and I only feel like I wanna break with consensus sufficiently here on A50

[Menalque]

I’ve gone back through multiple times and the only person who the game makes sense to me if they’re scum is A50 at this point

Idgi if it’s PP or S_S tbh

[MariaR]

Lynch time?