Newbie 2016: Snapdragons (Game Over)

[ClarkBar]

I've never been a typical D1 elimination target, so I couldn't tell you.

How would you characterize a "typical D1 elimination target"? What makes you different? Would you consider that difference a conscious choice or just your natural style?

[ClarkBar]

Are you actually unironically pushing that angle?

Any questions for anybody yet? Want to place a vote? How do you feel about the current reads? I know you don't like Lucky's "angle", please tell me why!

I want in on that non-RVS action.

UNVOTE: LuckyLuciano

VOTE: Homura

[LuckyLuciano]

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.

So I am going to address this after all. As Jam may recall, I can be somewhat of lush and tonight is no exception, but I'll try and keep my thoughts clear.

I do find activity on this site by a player which does not occur in the thread(s) in which they are playing to be scum-indicative. In other words, if you're here doing stuff (on Mafiascum) but not

posting in the game you're in

I find that suspicious. I hate to keep referencing my last game, but it's my only frame of reference. In my last game there was a player whose activity/behavior outside of our game thread was distinctly different than it was inside it. I voted for that player, the wagon got to L-1, and then the player was replaced. That slot ended up being scum.

Which brings up my next point, and I am just thinking out loud here. I think Lucky is correct in pushing this "angle". I think I disagree that a replacement be lynched unless they claim a PR. How can a replacement answer for another player who has barely posted? What information can be gleaned from that Lynch provided it doesn't turn up scum? Just a wagon exam?

I know: "here goes Clarkbar defending Blopp again". I disagree that I ever did, and I'm not doing so now. I like the wagon well enough, I just wonder about the virtue of that last bit regarding lynching a replacement unless there's a PR claim. Since Lucky has made that the condition of a successful claim, couldn't any replacement (even town perhaps) make a PR claim? Thus forcing possible counter-claims?

If you think the target of a wagon is scum, it doesn't matter that it's not fair to their replacement that they have to defend another player's actions. If scum fake claims TPR and gets CC'd, we still win the trade. Scum trading 1-for-1 is a losing trade for them.

I've never been a typical D1 elimination target, so I couldn't tell you.

How would you characterize a "typical D1 elimination target"? What makes you different? Would you consider that difference a conscious choice or just your natural style?

Players who push the game forward and generate AI content don't die D1. There's also the fact that I come from a site where the metagame was literally to cop / track me N1, and mafia would NK me N1 if I was town. As in, over the course of ~10 years I was targeted for the kill N1 in

over 40%

of my town games, and in roughly half the games I survived N1 as town I was the target of a mafia framer, so in a way I guess I was off the table for D1 lynches because it was assumed that my slot would resolve itself eventually anyway.

[ClarkBar]

By the way (nobody else is playing so I might as well) @Homura I know that you

technically

voted for Lucky in RVS (no random reason given...cmon! have some fun!) and you

did

ask a question in 64. Despite this, I still don't think you've placed a vote of meaning or asked a question with any follow through all game. I'm curious about that.

[ClarkBar]

Thanks for those responses in 77 Lucky! Shout out to the guy who still manages to post despite a busted keyboard.

[LuckyLuciano]

I got a shitty replacement keyboard from target this morning while I wait for a real one to come in from Amazon.

[ClarkBar]

@Lucky, would you feel as suspect about other players who are actively on this site and not posting? I mean, I don't know what hand certain people are dealt, but sometimes I look at player posts. Clearly you do too. I'm sure you're positively flush with opinions on this. How AI do you consider it to be active on mafiascum and not posting in a select thread? Should that bluff always be called, or are there exceptions?

[LuckyLuciano]

It depends heavily on context. I'm onsite often playing in multiple games. Sometimes I post in all of them actively. Sometimes I'm focused on one game because it's in a critical state. Sometimes I'm just taking a step back from a particular game to let the thread breathe and see what directions other players are looking to take the game in.

I think dipping the moment a non-RVS wagon starts up on you, despite posting after the wagon started (in other words, knowing that the wagon is there), is sketchy. I'm also confused as to how people don't read the deletion of her profile pic as conceding. She deliberately logged on to delete her profile pic. Not to post, not to lurk, but to

delete

her pic. She didn't replace it, she

deleted

it and left again. That seems to be as close as you can get to closing your account on this site. Does newbie town effectively delete their account when called scum?

[JamSV]

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.

Which brings up my next point, and I am just thinking out loud here. I think Lucky is correct in pushing this "angle". I think I disagree that a replacement be lynched unless they claim a PR. How can a replacement answer for another player who has barely posted? What information can be gleaned from that Lynch provided it doesn't turn up scum? Just a wagon exam?

I know: "here goes Clarkbar defending Blopp again". I disagree that I ever did, and I'm not doing so now. I like the wagon well enough, I just wonder about the virtue of that last bit regarding lynching a replacement unless there's a PR claim. Since Lucky has made that the condition of a successful claim, couldn't any replacement (even town perhaps) make a PR claim? Thus forcing possible counter-claims?

As a matter of courtesy, it would be nice if somebody replaces in to give them the benefit of the doubt, we have more than a week to make a safe kill. Lucky seems to be attempting to end the day early, which I don't believe is pro town. Whether its scummy or a bad play is a different kettle of fish.

[Homura]

It depends heavily on context. I'm onsite often playing in multiple games. Sometimes I post in all of them actively. Sometimes I'm focused on one game because it's in a critical state. Sometimes I'm just taking a step back from a particular game to let the thread breathe and see what directions other players are looking to take the game in.

I think dipping the moment a non-RVS wagon starts up on you, despite posting after the wagon started (in other words, knowing that the wagon is there), is sketchy. I'm also confused as to how people don't read the deletion of her profile pic as conceding. She deliberately logged on to delete her profile pic. Not to post, not to lurk, but to

delete

her pic. She didn't replace it, she

deleted

it and left again. That seems to be as close as you can get to closing your account on this site. Does newbie town effectively delete their account when called scum?

But why did you assume that it was scum!Blopp essentially ragequitting after the game has progressed two pages over... literally any other explanation?

[LuckyLuciano]

As a matter of courtesy, it would be nice if somebody replaces in to give them the benefit of the doubt,

Replacing into a slot doesn't make it town.

we have more than a week to make a safe kill.

Why is a longer day phase inherently better than a short one?

Whether its scummy or a bad play is a different kettle of fish.

This is a false dichotomy.

[Homura]

Like, speaking as someone who's played and spectated in Newbie games for almost a year — I've never seen newbscum just flat-out throw because they were caught. They might lurk out of the game or forget the site exists, but you're making an absurd leap of logic to assume that the removal of their avatar was because they were caught scum making a concession. You're missing me with how you correlated that.

[Homura]

I do find activity on this site by a player which does not occur in the thread(s) in which they are playing to be scum-indicative. In other words, if you're here doing stuff (on Mafiascum) but not posting in the game you're in I find that suspicious. I hate to keep referencing my last game, but it's my only frame of reference. In my last game there was a player whose activity/behavior outside of our game thread was distinctly different than it was inside it. I voted for that player, the wagon got to L-1, and then the player was replaced. That slot ended up being scum.

In my own last game a player was wagoned for being active on their alt while ignoring the game itself. They were town.

Like the absence of evidence as evidence tell, I dislike this activity tell as the sole basis of a scumread unless in complement with other more concrete scumtells. Maybe I'm biased, though, as someone who prefers spectating games over playing in them myself.

[LuckyLuciano]

It depends heavily on context. I'm onsite often playing in multiple games. Sometimes I post in all of them actively. Sometimes I'm focused on one game because it's in a critical state. Sometimes I'm just taking a step back from a particular game to let the thread breathe and see what directions other players are looking to take the game in.

I think dipping the moment a non-RVS wagon starts up on you, despite posting after the wagon started (in other words, knowing that the wagon is there), is sketchy. I'm also confused as to how people don't read the deletion of her profile pic as conceding. She deliberately logged on to delete her profile pic. Not to post, not to lurk, but to

delete

her pic. She didn't replace it, she

deleted

it and left again. That seems to be as close as you can get to closing your account on this site. Does newbie town effectively delete their account when called scum?

But why did you assume that it was scum!Blopp essentially ragequitting after the game has progressed two pages over... literally any other explanation?

Like, speaking as someone who's played and spectated in Newbie games for almost a year — I've never seen newbscum just flat-out throw because they were caught. They might lurk out of the game or forget the site exists, but you're making an absurd leap of logic to assume that the removal of their avatar was because they were caught scum making a concession. You're missing me with how you correlated that.

Why does a player log back into the site, delete their avatar, and log off? We're working off theories here, give me an alternative theory. If you are going to dismiss my theory, provide one of your own. If you don't think this is a topic worth talking about, pick something that is worth talking about and bring it to the forefront.

[JamSV]

As a matter of courtesy, it would be nice if somebody replaces in to give them the benefit of the doubt,

Replacing into a slot doesn't make it town.

we have more than a week to make a safe kill.

Why is a longer day phase inherently better than a short one?

Whether its scummy or a bad play is a different kettle of fish.

This is a false dichotomy.

1. I never said it made them town
2. Helps prevention of a town elimination
3. No it isn't but I like your attempt at discrediting. There isn't town incentive to end a day early. The longer the day the less chance of killing of a town, similarly, if a Cop, you want time to work out who to investigate, Doctor's want time to learn who to heal, Trackers to track, Jailkeepers to Jail, Friendly Neighbour to Neighbour, Masons to get extra stuff worked out amongst the two of them. Ending the day early allows the following:

• Town elimination
• Shorter discussion and the prevention of discussion
• Free time for Scum under suspicion to work out excuses
• Less time for Scum to be found

The list can go on but they're the most important to take into account.

To disallow a day phase to be brought out sufficiently, it is inherently anti-town. If somebody purposely does something anti-town there are two options:
They are scum
OR
They are town and it's a bad play.

We have arrived at the simple conclusion I got to with more detailed explanation than you simply dismissing it as a false dichotomy. A dichotomy would be correct, but not a false dichotomy.

PS I also find it bad practice to quote an answer to the question you're going to ask...

we have more than a week

to make a safe kill.

Why is a longer day phase inherently better than a short one?

Leaning on Lucky, mostly for his post, and partly because he's an English lit student who doesn't quote context to make a quote more accurate.

[LuckyLuciano]

I've never seen newbscum just flat-out throw because they were caught.

Also, certainly you've never seen newbtown flat-out throw because they were caught. By being town, it's logically impossible for them to be caught. Not having seen something happen doesn't mean that it hasn't or can't happen.

[JamSV]

UNVOTE: BloppUNVOTE:
VOTE: UnluckyLuciano

[JamSV]

UNVOTE: BloppUNVOTE:
VOTE: UnluckyLuciano

UNVOTE: UnluckyLuciano
UNVOTE: Blopp
VOTE: UnluckyLuciano

[LuckyLuciano]

A dichotomy would be correct, but not a false dichotomy.

It is a false dichotomy my friend. I took over 200 games on my old site and ran a statistical analysis on town winrate in terms of D1 post count per player. The result was a strong, statistically significant trend. Want to take a guess what the trend said?

[Homura]

Why does a player log back into the site, delete their avatar, and log off? We're working off theories here, give me an alternative theory. If you are going to dismiss my theory, provide one of your own. If you don't think this is a topic worth talking about, pick something that is worth talking about and bring it to the forefront.

I don't have one. Just think you're reading too much into something that could have a non-game-related reason for occurring.

[LuckyLuciano]

I don't have one. Just think you're reading too much into something that could have a non-game-related reason for occurring.

Thank you for your contribution to the game. Come back when you want to push the game forward.

[JamSV]

A dichotomy would be correct, but not a false dichotomy.

It is a false dichotomy my friend. I took over 200 games on my old site and ran a statistical analysis on town winrate in terms of D1 post count per player. The result was a strong, statistically significant trend. Want to take a guess what the trend said?

That you have too much time on your hands. Also that you don't have an actual grasp on how statistics work, is what I'd imagine your trend would say. There are tons of factors you aren't taking into account when you're going based off of solely post count
For those of whom don't wish to read the maths / logical explanation here's a spoiler

• Timezones, if a cluster of players have a similar time zone, the likelihood is that they'll post more, as they'll get more active responses
• If somebody is considered Scum by a decent amount of people they're post rate changes, either increasing or decreasing.
• The longer the day, the more posts naturally
• Different metas
• You'd have to assume games were independent, which isn't necessarily true, for example in this game, Clark and I have already made fodder posts about our previous game
• Certain parametres would have to be the same or similar, this would be the number of players, the number of prods, the actual day length, the maximum day length, and a mix of the above stated issues in our list

If you aren't careful there are many fallacies you'll fall into. You're an intelligent person so I truly hope you don't. Cherry Picking, Data Dredging, False Causality, potentially even the Simpsons Paradox, Overfitting, or the McNamara Fallacy. Basically what I'm saying is going off of statistics, especially off of another site religiously is an invalid point.

For those who didn't wish to read it, the important point to take away is that, there's too many things to take into account for it to be valid, and it's another site with different meta. (My spoiler looks like its broken in my preview and I don't know how to fix it sorry.)

[Homura]

72, what's your reasoning behind your vote on Blopp?

[LuckyLuciano]

You seem to have missed the sample size, and the statistical significance of the results. Gonna be real buddy, you don't have my respect as long as you lose to players like Mikul, who has NK'd me N1 in 7 consecutive games when he's been mafia because he cannot beat town!Lucky as scum. For the record, I correctly solved that game almost immediately after D2 started. Go ask your mod how accurate the PMs were. <3

[JamSV]

You seem to have missed the sample size, and the statistical significance of the results. Gonna be real buddy, you don't have my respect as long as you lose to players like Mikul, who has NK'd me N1 in 7 consecutive games when he's been mafia because he cannot beat town!Lucky as scum. For the record, I correctly solved that game almost immediately after D2 started. Go ask your mod how accurate the PMs were. <3

I have 2 bags. Both bags look very similar. Inside both bags are balls. You pick out some balls form the first bag and decide 70% are green and the rest are red. You conclude the second bag had 30% red and 70% green. I'm not saying your statistical data won't work. Regardless of the accuracy of your data and your process of getting it there will be times it overlaps. However it simply is never going to be a valid point.