Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)


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Post Post #825 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:04 pm

Post by Nash »

In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
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Post Post #826 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

In post 825, Nash wrote:
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?
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Post Post #827 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:16 pm

Post by Nash »

In post 826, Tuxedo Mask wrote:
In post 825, Nash wrote:
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?
I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?
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Post Post #828 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:23 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.
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Post Post #829 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:29 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 825, Nash wrote:
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.
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Post Post #830 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:36 pm

Post by Nash »

In post 828, Tuxedo Mask wrote:I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.
Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable
In post 829, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 825, Nash wrote:
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.
Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.
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Post Post #831 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:43 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

I actually think I like Nash's plan.

@Nash, so assume Marashu flipped town just now. What dies that tell you?
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Post Post #832 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:50 pm

Post by Nash »

In post 831, Tuxedo Mask wrote:I actually think I like Nash's plan.

@Nash, so assume Marashu flipped town just now. What dies that tell you?
Gives me a bad outlook on Looker, Worce and you. But I like your unvote, so just the other two. I'd like to hear why PP has a townlean on Looker
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Post Post #833 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:08 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

Okay but without a flip and mod confirmation they could still be a sleeper scum.

It's highly unlikely but js you can't just assume this.
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Post Post #834 (ISO) » Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:50 pm

Post by JacksonVirgo »

VC 1.17
Marashu (4)
- superbowl9, Worcestershire, Battle Mage, Looker
Nash (2)
- ceejayvinoya, Marashu
PenguinPower (2)
- Doctor Drew, word321

No-Elimination (1)
- Nash
Not Voting (4)
- Penguin Power, Deimos27, Aristophanes, Tuxedo Mask

With 7 votes to hammer... Marashu is at H-3 (3 votes until hammer)

Deadline:
(expired on 2020-07-07 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Joined Mod iso
PenguinPower is V/LA for the Weekend.


the prod mod returns once againceejayvinoya has been prodded!
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Post Post #835 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:04 am

Post by Deimos27 »

In post 802, Marashu wrote:Well, I am claiming VT, so what happens happens. My elimination might not be a bad thing in that regard (except for the fact that it's a miselimination), because it should at least give context to my wagon and some of the reads on me. I'd rather be an early miseliminationthan than a late miselimination, and more than either I want to win, so if my elimination helps town get the info we need to win, then so be it.
I'm surprised by how confident some of y'all suddenly are in town!Marashu. To me this paragraph screams LAMIST.

We're definitely not no-eliminating. If someone prefers an alternative wagon they should pitch it ASAP.
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Post Post #836 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:14 am

Post by Deimos27 »

In post 793, Aristophanes wrote:They should crumb their hide each day before deadline in an obvious enough way (while remaining covert).
Way
easier said than done mate
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Post Post #837 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:16 am

Post by JacksonVirgo »

Mod NoteThe terminology I will be using throughout the game will be using the word "Hammer".
For example.
"X has been Hammered!"
"H-X = hammer minus X"
"Mishammered"

You may use whichever you prefer but that's what I will be using to replace the banned terminology in case people want to stay consistent with the mods terminology. Thought I would just say that now rather than later
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Post Post #838 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:17 am

Post by Deimos27 »

Aristophanes who's your ideal lynch? You were defending Marashu quite adamantly there for a few pages and now you want to flip him.
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Post Post #839 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:20 am

Post by Deimos27 »

In post 712, Looker wrote:I think it's informing when we have two major wagons going on at the same time. At the time of my vote, it was Marashu vs PenguinPower - I think Marashu is more likely to flip scum than PenguinPower.
I don't see how "I think I've come around on" this person is an explanation.
I'm trying to prompt you into giving more detail on your sr of Marashu than that he didn't signpost a progression.
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Post Post #840 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:22 am

Post by Deimos27 »

In post 838, Deimos27 wrote:Aristophanes who's your ideal
lynch
elimination? You were defending Marashu quite adamantly there for a few pages and now you want to flip him.
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I've already slipped noooo
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Post Post #841 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:54 am

Post by Nash »

Marashu has fakeclaimed before as scum so I really find no reason for scum!him to claim VT here, even after BM's . How is it +EV if we eliminate someone we think is most likely to flip town? And why is No Eliminating today a bad idea?
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Post Post #842 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:05 am

Post by Deimos27 »

Fakeclaiming once does not imply always fakeclaiming. Whether you fakeclaim depends on whether the elimination on you can be derailed or not. And I'm not arguing in favour of eliminating slots that are +town, since I don't think Marashu is +town.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.
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Post Post #843 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:06 am

Post by Deimos27 »

I didn't think I'd have to explain why no-eliminating is bad in a game outside the newbie queue.
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Post Post #844 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:09 am

Post by Deimos27 »

Nash, who do you prefer rather than Marashu. We have over two days and there's no reason for you not to use that time pushing your stances. If you fail to get your favoured elimination you can always default to your no-eliminating, after all.
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Post Post #845 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:37 am

Post by Nash »

In post 842, Deimos27 wrote: No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.
This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
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Post Post #846 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:38 am

Post by Nash »

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now
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Post Post #847 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:29 am

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Post Post #848 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:29 am

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Post Post #849 (ISO) » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:29 am

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