Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[notscience]

It’s not like I’m doing anything with it, it’s just my spicy take

I’m disappointed in you worm, I’m gonna have to drop you in some tequila

[Titus]

So here's my thinking about shipments.

We send half the living players on Linen, and the other half on Copper. Who gets on which is largely irrelevant.
Conftown players get to go on the wheat ship. Today that would be NK15, provided they confirm themselves on the inspection report. Which if they don't do is a scumclaim.

We investigate either Linen or Copper, whichever we feel is more likely to have scum onboard. If Inno, everyone onboard moves to Wheat duty, and we execute from the other ship. If guilTea, we execute there.

Thoughts?

Tailoring this since it was mentioned again.

I agree partially with this. If we do that, the shipping assignments should be randomized. We have NK to go through for the randomization to have it be trustworthy (just no dice tags or proof of randomness). That prevents scum from plotting out which wagon to be on.

We could then vote on the shipping pattern once the areas are fixed.

[Radical Rat]

Why is randomness preferable to Scum plotting and (potentially) making a mistake? Or at least leaving some kind of pattern to it that we could pick up on?

[Radical Rat]

though also seem a bit like cat-herding; his plan in 460 requires close to unanimous agreement to be workable

Correct, so can I count on your support?

[Titus]

Why is randomness preferable to Scum plotting and (potentially) making a mistake? Or at least leaving some kind of pattern to it that we could pick up on?

First, people will have reactions to a plot suggestion. Those can help determine alignments.

Second, determining if scum made a mistake is near impossible without knowing which wincondition they go for. Each wincondition would want a different setup on investigations. If scum go for wincondition A but the investigation matches wincondition B, that hurts scum.

[Umlaut]

I have to think about it more. I'm worried that innoing half the players reduces cover for the TD too much; for example we could end up with a pool of 8 confirmed innos and then 7 players of whom three are smugglers and one is the TD. Given that this is the pool we're executing from this makes it very easy for them to narrow that down.

[Umlaut]

I have to think about it more. I'm worried that innoing half the players reduces cover for the TD too much; for example we could end up with a pool of 8 confirmed innos and then 7 players of whom three are smugglers and one is the TD. Given that this is the pool we're executing from this makes it very easy for them to narrow that down.

this was in response to 528

[Umlaut]

Actually I guess that's an edge case though, it's

prima facie

unlikely all the smugglers and the TD end up shipping the same thing.

[Umlaut]

If we do it randomly, though, then scum are presumed equally distributed across the two shipments and we expect that both shipments will probably have tea on them. So finding tea doesn't tell us anything we don't already expect, and not finding it is potentially disastrous for the reasons I outlined.

I need to think more.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I need to think more.

I'm starting to question why i signed up to a game that requires thinking.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Titus

Alisae

Maki Harukawa

username
Moment

GuiltyLion

Something_Smart

Datisi

Not Known 15

maxwell

Menalque

Hel
Iconeum
Radical Rat
notscience

Umlaut

So these are my current thoughts.
Green: Player i am familiar with that i townread.
Yellow: Player i'm familiar with that i do not currently townread.

[Titus]

If we do it randomly, though, then scum are presumed equally distributed across the two shipments and we expect that both shipments will probably have tea on them. So finding tea doesn't tell us anything we don't already expect, and not finding it is potentially disastrous for the reasons I outlined.

I need to think more.

Actually, that scenario is <1/3 likely. If we suppose two scum randed different spots, then the last scum has 1/3 odds of landing the third letter.

[Radical Rat]

Why is randomness preferable to Scum plotting and (potentially) making a mistake? Or at least leaving some kind of pattern to it that we could pick up on?

First, people will have reactions to a plot suggestion. Those can help determine alignments.

Second, determining if scum made a mistake is near impossible without knowing which wincondition they go for. Each wincondition would want a different setup on investigations. If scum go for wincondition A but the investigation matches wincondition B, that hurts scum.

I don't think there's much difference in the wincons anyway. No matter which one is their primary objective, scum needs to stay alive and find the TD. I don't want to go into too much detail, but I really don't see much room for divergence.
And even then, I don't see how randomness helps at all. I much prefer letting scum do things that might get them caught instead of offloading to luck.

[Titus]

Why is randomness preferable to Scum plotting and (potentially) making a mistake? Or at least leaving some kind of pattern to it that we could pick up on?

First, people will have reactions to a plot suggestion. Those can help determine alignments.

Second, determining if scum made a mistake is near impossible without knowing which wincondition they go for. Each wincondition would want a different setup on investigations. If scum go for wincondition A but the investigation matches wincondition B, that hurts scum.

I don't think there's much difference in the wincons anyway. No matter which one is their primary objective, scum needs to stay alive and find the TD. I don't want to go into too much detail, but I really don't see much room for divergence.
And even then, I don't see how randomness helps at all. I much prefer letting scum do things that might get them caught instead of offloading to luck.

There is an absolute difference in wincons.

If they feel they cannot survive lynches, they'd use the shipments to narrow down the TD. Thus, they'd pile onto one.

If they can survive via lynching, they'd spread out.

By doing random, it removes the choice.

[Menalque]

Norwee, what is it that you are seeing in titus/ali and what is it that you’re not seeing in datisi?

[Menalque]

If I can get to a TR on S_S once he arrives then I’m probably just going to sheep him on mechanics of shipping etc and I’m not super interested in it until he turns up

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwee, what is it that you are seeing in titus/ali and what is it that you’re not seeing in datisi?

Titus it looks like they're trying to solve/effort. While Alisae idk, just don't feel any scummy motivation i guess?
As for Datisi i just don't see any town energy from their posts yet.

[NorwegianboyEE]

My reads probably suck now but that's alright. I'll improve as the game advances.

[Radical Rat]

I have to think about it more. I'm worried that innoing half the players reduces cover for the TD too much; for example we could end up with a pool of 8 confirmed innos and then 7 players of whom three are smugglers and one is the TD. Given that this is the pool we're executing from this makes it very easy for them to narrow that down.

Well, ideally the TD would just play like any of the rest of us, preventing scum from picking up anything in-thread. So that would give them a pool of four or five depending on whether the 8 ship or the 7 ship gets the inno. We'll assume four, so scum has a 25% chance of correctly identifying TD in this case.

I think that's acceptable if it comes down to it. We just need to be sure not to misclown.

[Radical Rat]

There is an absolute difference in wincons.

If they feel they cannot survive lynches, they'd use the shipments to narrow down the TD. Thus, they'd pile onto one.

If they can survive via lynching, they'd spread out.

By doing random, it removes the choice.

Yes, those are the two approaches they could take, though either could easily serve either wincon. But again. Why is removing the choice a good thing? Why would we deny ourselves the opportunity to watch for a scum pattern?

[Titus]

There is an absolute difference in wincons.

If they feel they cannot survive lynches, they'd use the shipments to narrow down the TD. Thus, they'd pile onto one.

If they can survive via lynching, they'd spread out.

By doing random, it removes the choice.

Yes, those are the two approaches they could take, though either could easily serve either wincon. But again. Why is removing the choice a good thing? Why would we deny ourselves the opportunity to watch for a scum pattern?

The watching leads to a circular conclusion. Very few people actually reevaluate when data suggests differently. We can figure out who scum are because they want that flexibility.

[Datisi]

Honestly, I don't know myself. I guess it just gives me peace of mind that it probably WAS just a meaningless joke, and not either the literal worst possible move for Town to make or a crazy scumstrat made to look like that.

if it were a crazy scumstart, how'd you expect mena to act once the Real PA came out?

~

i think this situation with the PA claiming early reminds me of a normal where two town neighbors fakeclaimed masons - while on paper it sounded good (drawing in the nk, which they did do), in practice it created enough confusion/"blockage" (especially given there was an

actual

mason pair...) it ended up being anti-town in the long run

~

I disagree because now NK 15's reads are placed above that of town. What if NK 15 gets agency captured?

what is agency capturing?

~

unless mena and nk15 are scum together and this is an elaborate galaxy brain gambit

for the sake of my sanity let's say it's not

which games were these?

Nomination; GnR III; a newbie I’m pretty sure; normal 2119

I would consider both nomination and GnR to be weird setup games, although tbf he was scum in nomination

oh hey that cursed game

i will look at that

... Later(tm)

~

Scattered thoughts:

• I think we all agree Menalque is town.
  
• I've decided Radical Rat is town as well; his gamesolving attempts seem to come from a town place (though also seem a bit like cat-herding; his plan in 460 requires close to unanimous agreement to be workable)

literally half a page before this post Maki is voting to execute Mena?

can you elaborate on the RR read and wdym by cat-herding?

~

I'm starting to question why i signed up to a game that requires thinking.

~

norwee, the only game we played in was that (goddamn bullshit) newbie game where i was a mason, right?

[Alisae]

Waking up will play eventually

[username]

Because he was making a joke alluding to who he was- a player known for rage posting and I thought it was just scum grandstanding but in retrospect with the new lens it’s super easy to see it that way.

Also fwiw I really doubt he unclowns me but his reaction is pretty standard for the bits I remember of playing with town him.

You knew, dude. You can say all you want, but I absolutely refuse to believe that you just coincidentally hit upon the one thing that is so well known to piss me off that I put it in my wiki asking people not to do. The one fucking thing I have told people REPEATEDLYOVER THE FUCKING YEARSto stop fucking doing. And I mean YEARS.

In Team mafia I had to tell Flavor Leaf in my own god damn scum PT that just because he was scum with me doesn't mean he's allowed to pull that "fake rage" bullshit because it pisses me the fuck off.

And on top of THAT, you accused me of being angry, when I wasn't even CLOSE to angry. That's the same type of gaslighting bullshit that Carl Tuckerson tried in Purge Mafia and I put a vig shot right between his scummy-ass eyes. Fishmonger tried that same shit against me, and I roped his scummy ass up too.

Your ass is fucking caught, notscience. You knew damn well who I was, (I even pointed out that I was making no effort to hide it) that's why you used some shit that you knew would deliberately piss me off and derail the thread. You said it yourself. You wanted me lynched, so you baited me. Your words.

Now you're caught fucking scum, and I'mma stand over your corpse just like I did Carl Tuckerson, just like Fish Monger, just like every god damn half-ass scum that ever tried to bait me into a ban over the last eight years.

[Titus]

what is agency capturing?

It's where scum buddy a town so effectively they work for the scumteam. It word comes from agency capture in the law.

Someone who is agency captured is a townbeard.