Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[JacksonVirgo]

VC 1.18

Marashu (4)

- superbowl9, Worcestershire, Battle Mage, Looker

Nash (2)

- ceejayvinoya, Marashu

PenguinPower (2)

- Doctor Drew, word321

Looker (1)

- Nash

No-Elimination (0)

Not Voting (4)

- Penguin Power, Deimos27, Aristophanes, Tuxedo Mask

With 7 votes to hammer... Marashu is at H-3 (3 votes until hammer)

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-07-07 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Joined Mod iso
PenguinPower is V/LA for the Weekend.

[Worcestershire]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

Well, I am claiming VT, so what happens happens. My elimination might not be a bad thing in that regard (except for the fact that it's a miselimination), because it should at least give context to my wagon and some of the reads on me. I'd rather be an early miseliminationthan than a late miselimination, and more than either I want to win, so if my elimination helps town get the info we need to win, then so be it.

I feel like Nash is coasting, which is why I want more pressure there. I'm actually kinda feeling Worcestershire as scum - I thought that Nash's point on cognitive load was pretty on point, and resonates with past games I've played as scum. I just didn't think that will gain traction with so many people seemingly TRing Worce.

Bullshit.

[Worcestershire]

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

[Worcestershire]

Aris, however, is giving me a much better impression than his predecessor.

[Worcestershire]

I need 3 votes on Marashu.

[Looker]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

Spoiler:

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?

I need 3 votes on Marashu.

It confuses me that we still have non-voters. I guess I'm just destined to be confused.

---

• Deimos is being sarcastic. If he really wanted to read me, he'd read my old games or hold me accountable to my flips.
  • Also, "prompts" are weird - just ask. Marashu not being flipped despite so much effort is suspicious to me, about as suspicious as two players getting townbloc'd on D1 with no mechanical info.

[Marashu]

I don't get it; what's so special about word? Did I miss a claim or something? Your tone is weird, btw - "While we're at it, care to also explain" comes off as snarky, and I'm accustomed to that coming from scum trying to play 'gotcha' games.

• I didn't say anyone was a "top town read" - judging from VCA, I didn't and don't find it beneficial to eliminate Nash right now.
• And I got the vig thing from skimming the posts where you guys mentioned there being a vig. It's actually in your post 633, which was quoted in the post you quoted.

I was treating your hammer %'s as preference based on reads, and with Nash at 3% I had thought this meant he was among the people you were reading as town since he was among those with least preference. So those percents are some sort of combination of who you think is scum and who would provide useful information on flip? If I'm mistaken, I think I need you to explain this. Along the same lines, word seems very town-y to me. I understand suspicion, but having word at such a high hammer percent implies scum reading him. Is this a scum read, or is it again based on information that would be provided on flip?

As for the vigilante, it's player's choice based on whether we have a vigilante or a tracker. Post 633 only makes sense in the context of knowing a) I think that someone from a town mindset would find it obvious that Tracker is preferred over vigilante, and b) I was outlining how the presence of vigilante could create false positives for our investigative roles, and how NOT having a vigilante solved those, and how Midari was of the opinion that town does sometimes choose vigilante over tracker (and cited games where this happened) and didn't see how the tracker choice was obvious. So post 633 is more about why we will not have a vig than about why we will have a vig.

'While we're at it" = "While we're on the subject of explaining your % preferences"

VOTE: Nash - I'm ok with this slot getting more pressure.

Is it pressure if you say it's pressure?

Yes.

If Nash is aware of cognitive load, he should also be aware of why no hammer is not a good thing. I also think it's very premature to treat me as conftown without some mechanical reason to do so. This could be distancing from a wagon he knows will flip town.

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If you think a Nash flip has more than 3% value, I can think of a way for you to find out.

[Marashu]

EBWOP

I don't get it; what's so special about word? Did I miss a claim or something? Your tone is weird, btw - "While we're at it, care to also explain" comes off as snarky, and I'm accustomed to that coming from scum trying to play 'gotcha' games.

• I didn't say anyone was a "top town read" - judging from VCA, I didn't and don't find it beneficial to eliminate Nash right now.
• And I got the vig thing from skimming the posts where you guys mentioned there being a vig. It's actually in your post 633, which was quoted in the post you quoted.

I was treating your hammer %'s as preference based on reads, and with Nash at 3% I had thought this meant he was among the people you were reading as town since he was among those with least preference. So those percents are some sort of combination of who you think is scum and who would provide useful information on flip? If I'm mistaken, I think I need you to explain this. Along the same lines, word seems very town-y to me. I understand suspicion, but having word at such a high hammer percent implies scum reading him. Is this a scum read, or is it again based on information that would be provided on flip?

As for the vigilante, it's player's choice based on whether we have a vigilante or a tracker. Post 633 only makes sense in the context of knowing a) I think that someone from a town mindset would find it obvious that Tracker is preferred over vigilante, and b) I was outlining how the presence of vigilante could create false positives for our investigative roles, and how NOT having a vigilante solved those, and how Midari was of the opinion that town does sometimes choose vigilante over tracker (and cited games where this happened) and didn't see how the tracker choice was obvious. So post 633 is more about why we will not have a vig than about why we will have a vig.

'While we're at it" = "While we're on the subject of explaining your % preferences"

VOTE: Nash - I'm ok with this slot getting more pressure.

Is it pressure if you say it's pressure?

Yes.

If Nash is aware of cognitive load, he should also be aware of why no hammer is not a good thing. I also think it's very premature to treat me as conftown without some mechanical reason to do so. This could be distancing from a wagon he knows will flip town.

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If you think a Nash flip has more than 3% value, I can think of a way for you to find out.

[word321]

I think Lookers % were directly based on the vote count analysis by tuxedo mask; he can answer it for u tho

[word321]

theres no way we r ending the day without a hammer

[word321]

at this point I think a maras hammer is worth by itself just for the amount of info well get out of it
I dnt think a penguin power wagon will suddenly launch either way with so many ppl null/town reading him in contrast to mara

[Nash]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.

I was convinced by Mara's claim and I thought it would be best to not go for another elimination and risk losing a PR without any mechanical advantage (50%). That way we don't run up a bunch of people like BM said.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.

Spoiler:

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?

To town, because I don't know why scum would claim VT in that situation. Scum would know where to shoot for PRs even if we eliminated the VT.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.

By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.

I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?

I don't see any analysis/scumhunting in your pred's ISO. You're also the least towny in the Marashu wagon, who I think will flip town.

[Battle Mage]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

not sure if it's sub-optimal? depends on what they think will save their bacon for the longest. I've claimed VT as scum before, thinking it would be more credible. Claiming a PR would basically mean they can't survive to endgame. It's probably unlikely it results in a counterclaim in this gamestate, and therefore there's not much additional verification from a PR claim anyway.

[Battle Mage]

In fairness, I can see why people might think, mistakenly, that a PR fakeclaim would "out" the real PR. I don't think this is the case, certainly not with experienced players in the slots.

[Battle Mage]

I'm baffled at the amount of people it seems are noting Tux looks town. I don't see anything which gives me that view particularly. Separately, I'm opposed to a PP lynch today, but would recommend it is revisited tomorrow.

[Battle Mage]

lastly to note I'm

V/LA for 48 hours

.

[Aristophanes]

Aristophanes who's your ideal lynch? You were defending Marashu quite adamantly there for a few pages and now you want to flip him.

Welllll considering the timeline and the claim, I am fine with the elimination of Mara.

I was arguing to get a case from people because I did not see scum motivations, not because I townread the slot.

Like, swinging a hammer elsewhere at this point would be a bit difficult, so I'll save my thoughts for D2. I have intent to deadline hammer if it comes to that though.

[Aristophanes]

Oof I just realized I missed a page here.

Gonna have to read up, but it may not be tn. Not gonna delay it much tho because ~deadlines~

[Tuxedo Mask]

VOTE: Marashu If there is where we're headed then I don't want to risk a no hammer.

[Doctor Drew]

I have been celebrating the day that Jesus invented 'Murica by kayaking, fishing, getting a sunburn, shooting cans with a pellet gun, throwing axes at shit, and getting drunk.

So basically I am prepared to drop the hammer if need be.......ready to spread some freedom around.

[Aristophanes]

I have been celebrating the day that Jesus invented 'Murica by kayaking, fishing, getting a sunburn, shooting cans with a pellet gun, throwing axes at shit, and getting drunk.

So basically I am prepared to drop the hammer if need be.......ready to spread some freedom around.

Drop the hammer and pick up a sickle!

[superbowl9]

My only hesitation on Marashu is that the same group of players got a lot of traction on wagons for Marashu and Pi. So something pings me about that and kind of makes me feel it is scum Midari/PP indictive, but I've never done VCA before so I don't feel too strong in that gut feeling.

I think word also highlighted this, but scum is not the only option! Maybe we are just a strong townblock trying to steer town in the right direction, or maybe we are scum - you have to decide this, but don't treat scum manipulation as the only motive here

[Doctor Drew]

Is Mara at H-1?

[Tuxedo Mask]

My only hesitation on Marashu is that the same group of players got a lot of traction on wagons for Marashu and Pi. So something pings me about that and kind of makes me feel it is scum Midari/PP indictive, but I've never done VCA before so I don't feel too strong in that gut feeling.

I think word also highlighted this, but scum is not the only option! Maybe we are just a strong townblock trying to steer town in the right direction, or maybe we are scum - you have to decide this, but don't treat scum manipulation as the only motive here

What about what I said implied it was the only thing I considered? What's the worry of me looking at those that moved from Pi to Marashu?

[Tuxedo Mask]

Is Mara at H-1?

Should be H-2 but you and Plane together can end it.