Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[maxwell]

Kuribo what do you make of moments defense of nk? It’s giving me the heebie jeebies

Not kuribo but: I doubt he's going out on a limb for NK15 if he's his buddy. If he's town I could see it as whiteknighting the scummy guy but I could see a town player doing it. I liked his posts before this but I might just for the style.

[notscience]

I could see that.

I just feel like scum would be going out of their way for buddies in this setup given how small a squad they have.

Where do you think buddies would be positioned wrt all this? Avoiding bussing at all costs right?

[GuiltyLion]

yeh Smart is convincing

NK15/Umlaut/Datisi

quote me on this postgame

[maxwell]

EBWOP: If [Not Known 15] is town I could see [Moment] as whiteknighting the scummy guy but I could see a town player doing it as well.

The big issue with hard defending in this setup is is that if 2 scum go down endgame gets triggered immediately and they likely want to avoid that, hard defense means you're really likely to get checked or elim'd at some point because you look like crap. If I was scum with NK15 I'd be bussing the shit out of him right away because I'd know he's taking a dive and he's already done what he needed to do by generating TD reads.

[Umlaut]

yeh Smart is convincing

NK15/Umlaut/Datisi

quote me on this postgame

Will do!

If NK15 is town then he’s misplayed hard. But i’m not really willing to take that chance.

He's literally a safe elimination (and in that sense it would be a mistake to not flip him or check him at some point) but also some of the scummiest players in the game (Datisi, Umlaut) are flocking to voting him like flies on rotting meat

Is this supposed to be an argument for not flipping NK15 today? Because it seems like it is but you aren't really trying that hard to defend him and seem to be saying you are fine with it despite criticizing the wagon.

[notscience]

That’s a really good point max, I didn’t consider that.

Okay.

So maybe I’m wrong about the worm? He was very quick to discredit my hot take earlier.

[maxwell]

Is this supposed to be an argument for not flipping NK15 today? Because it seems like it is but you aren't really trying that hard to defend him and seem to be saying you are fine with it despite criticizing the wagon.

I was ambivalent to it but have come around to the idea, independent of my reads on the people voting him.

[Menalque]

@moment are you an alt?

[Moment]

I don't think that I've made this point yet, so considering that it seems relevant to the current conversation I'll make it now – I think this game is exceptionally scumsided.

Lynching two scum out of three in five days—nightless—is already not quite the easiest of tasks. I'm not an expert at calculating EVs, but I can't imagine that it'd be very high, or at least much higher than other games. Then we add all of the mechanics related to the cargo, the TD, and the PA. I honestly do not believe that these help town in any significant way, and the instant lose condition of scum knowing who the TD is makes this game a veritable

landmine field

. On top of that, it's a landmine field in which one player's bad play can instantly lose the game for everyone else. I expressed all of these sentiments to FakeGod before the game began, and he

agreed with me

. Do you know what he said? It was something along the lines of "better hope the TD is good!"

What I'm trying to say here is that I think town needs every possible advantage it can get, and so I'm not willing in the slightest to lynch someone whom I'm not convinced is scum. We don't have that much leeway.

--

That being said, it really is a question of mindset – does NK15 truly believe that what he did helps town? That it was a good idea? I think the answer is yes.

1 This is basically contingent on him being someone who's played for almost three years and made two thousand posts and yet cannot recognize an obvious joke, complete with a funny gif and a joke reply.

2 Not only that, but you'd have to believe that he studied the joke claim enough to determine it was likely true, which no doubt would also entail looking at the context and the reactions.

3 And yet, despite all this planning-- and the thing was meticulously planned, since he had a whole spiel prepared-- he never thought to crumb that his claim was fake, in case he was counterclaimed.

Alternatively, you could just believe that he's taking an ill-advised dive for his teammates, probably against their wishes, to help rule out possible daughters. Since the game lasts a fixed number of days, he might do this if he thought he'd be executed at any point, and thought it would benefit his team.

1 Yes, I believe this to be true. Have you read his posts?

2 I don't think you have to believe he "studied" it. The opposite, really.

3 Crumbing really doesn't mean anything. You certainly recognize that scum possess the capability to crumb just as much as town do. You ask why he wouldn't crumb as town fakeclaiming – I ask, why wouldn't he crumb as scum fakeclaiming? Even if he's "taking a dive" as you say, certainly it would still be better for him to live longer. So why not crumb? The answer is that—barring meta—that's really more of a personality trait than any sort of hard rule. I think that you know this, so this point feels a lot like rhetoric.

[Umlaut]

That’s a really good point max, I didn’t consider that.

Okay.

So maybe I’m wrong about the worm? He was very quick to discredit my hot take earlier.

I have to say that hot take kind of looks like TMI in retrospect, honestly. So I guess I'm still discrediting it now.

Is this supposed to be an argument for not flipping NK15 today? Because it seems like it is but you aren't really trying that hard to defend him and seem to be saying you are fine with it despite criticizing the wagon.

I was ambivalent to it but have come around to the idea, independent of my reads on the people voting him.

Thanks for answering. So your model of the game right now is that Datisi and I are likely busing?

[maxwell]

Thanks for answering. So your model of the game right now is that Datisi and I are likely busing?

I'd have to be incredibly overconfident to think I've nailed my reads exactly on day 1 (GL can try to call it if he likes but it feels a little too easy) but independently I don't townread any of you. If he IS scum, I do think someone on him right now is likely busing.

[Menalque]

Okay, I think moment is town

[Alisae]

What a clown fiesta
I’ll read up later

[Menalque]

I think umlaut being counterwagoned is probably another point in favour of scum!notscience

Who exactly is it on the Umlaut wagon that you think is scum defending notscience?

--

I think it’s strange given your townreads that I’m not also in your townreads, yes. What’s strange about my interactions with umlaut?

What is it about my townreads that indicates to you that you would be a part of them? Be specific, please.

I didn't say that you have strange interactions with Umalut – I said that

he

has strange interactions with you. Off the top of my head, the "we all agree Menalque is town" comes to mind.

Honestly I need a VC of who is on the umlaut wagon from FG, I just remember seeing votes coming on and thinking “I like very few of these”

*****

It’s kind of hard to explain. I don’t think maxwell or maki had done enough for you to be TRing them in 781. I think specifically that they were void of content that would indicate their alignments. Maki is definitely strong enough as scum that they could make any post there as either alignment. Maxwell actually isn’t that bad in ISO and I was more concerned about his early posting which is where that scumread came from. I didn’t like the way that he seemed to jump onto the chance to suspect GL when I said I was SRing him and I thought his first 3 posts were very easy to make as scum and didn’t really commit him to anything.

I also didn’t like 414 from maxwell because the first bit seemed like an empty question and the final two points felt like they were just void/avoidant.

I find it odd that you’re not townreading me unless you think I’m actively being scummy given that me being this enthusiastic about a game is generally town indicative for me, and I don’t know how you’re seeing a town thought process in ali and titus that you’re not seeing in me. As in: I feel what they’d contributed up to that point, if it was towny enough for you to think it’s actual town and not faked, should also be something you’re seeing in me. Or if you don’t see it in me, I don’t think you should be TRing ali or titus either.

[Alisae]

So like
We always kill off NK15 here right
we can’t possibly keep him alive after that claim and wolves probably got a lot of information as to who is a merchant now

[Menalque]

Moment can you talk to me about what you think is scummy about norwee? Because I tend to SR him regardless and I was thinking he was town here. I still think you’re wrong about datisi but I wouldn’t necessarily expect you to understand why

[Alisae]

I read up and it was a blur
I’ma need a votecount before I place my vote

[Moment]

It’s kind of hard to explain. I don’t think maxwell or maki had done enough for you to be TRing them in 781. I think specifically that they were void of content that would indicate their alignments. Maki is definitely strong enough as scum that they could make any post there as either alignment. Maxwell actually isn’t that bad in ISO and I was more concerned about his early posting which is where that scumread came from. I didn’t like the way that he seemed to jump onto the chance to suspect GL when I said I was SRing him and I thought his first 3 posts were very easy to make as scum and didn’t really commit him to anything.

I also didn’t like 414 from maxwell because the first bit seemed like an empty question and the final two points felt like they were just void/avoidant.

I townread Maki because I know who she is and because of my experience with her. It's not particularly strong given that she's one of the few people in the game with less posts than myself, but at the moment I have no reason to doubt it. I'm probably not going to elaborate on maxwell just because there aren't any posts of his that I actively remember as being super town-indicative and I don't really feel like going back to give examples – it'd just be post-hoc anyways.

I find it odd that you’re not townreading me unless you think I’m actively being scummy given that me being this enthusiastic about a game is generally town indicative for me, and I don’t know how you’re seeing a town thought process in ali and titus that you’re not seeing in me. As in: I feel what they’d contributed up to that point, if it was towny enough for you to think it’s actual town and not faked, should also be something you’re seeing in me. Or if you don’t see it in me, I don’t think you should be TRing ali or titus either.

It seems to me that there's an element of specificity here that you're not seeing. I don't townread Alisae and Titus just because of the vauge "their contributions are good", thus indicating by the fact that I don't townread you that "Menalque's contributions aren't good", or anything along those lines. I townread them

specifically

for various thought processes I've seen from them that I feel are far more likely to come from town than from scum, and that has very little to do with post count. It's similar to why I townread Maki – one specific element that I feel is more likely to come from her as town than scum, despite her low post count. (I will say that this is more the case for Titus than it is Alisae, hence my ranking Alisae lower.)

So, at the risk of redundancy, I'll restate myself It's not really about a vague "towny contributions". It's about specific posts that I don't see as coming from scum, and—to memory—I don't recall seeing any of those from you.

--

Moment can you talk to me about what you think is scummy about norwee? Because I tend to SR him regardless and I was thinking he was town here. I still think you’re wrong about datisi but I wouldn’t necessarily expect you to understand why

I suppose you've figured something out, then. Sure. I'll make a separate post.

I don't exactly scumread Datisi very strongly – I think it's more accurate to say that I see no reason to townread him.

[Alisae]

Mena what’s your towncore?

[Alisae]

ok
why are people reading maki as town
i'm not sure I should be going that far atm, I kind of want a bit more from her

Btw did anyone give me a response to this?
If so just link it.

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 1.10

NorwegianboyEE [1] - Hel
Menalque [1] - Maki Harukawa
notscience [3] - Radical Rat, Titus, Menalque
Umlaut [4] - maxwell, Alisae, GuiltyLion, Moment
Not Known 15 [5] - NorwegianboyEE, Datisi, username, notscience, Umlaut

Not Voting [3]

- Something_Smart, Iconeum, Not Known 15

With 17 alive it takes 9 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2020-07-11 13:35:31)

I am shipping...

Linen

[10] - Alisae, Maki Harukawa, GuiltyLion, Something_Smart, Not Known 15, maxwell, Menalque, Iconeum, notscience, Umlaut

Copper

[4] - Titus, NorwegianboyEE, username, Radical Rat

Wheat

[3] - Datisi, Hel, Moment

Let's Inspect...

Linen

[1] - Radical Rat

Copper

[3] - Hel, Moment, maxwell

Wheat

[3] - Umlaut, NorwegianboyEE, GuiltyLion

[Menalque]

Okay, it would be helpful if you were to go back and to highlight specifically what you think the towny thought processes you think you’ve seen in both of them are, because I haven’t seen that. Admittedly, I haven’t been looking super hard at that because I feel it’s not something I’m great at spotting but I think I’m more able to judge it when it’s pointed out to me explicitly by someone else.

***

I’d still like you to answer the question about whether you’re an alt or not: I won’t pursue the line of questioning more than that, but I’d appreciate a simple “yes/no” just so I can stop thinking about it.

***

I don’t think datisi has done things that should make someone unfamiliar with her TR her, but I think her recent meta has been towards the way she’s playing this game i.e. a bit checked out, and I’ve incorrectly scumread her for it the last couple of games we’ve played. I’m townreading her because I think a couple of the posts she’s made are very natural in the way she’s interacted with me in a way that I’m still not sold she does well as scum. Also, she’s rolled town like, a lot, and to memory her most recent scumgame she was actually much more active and enthusiastic than in her recent towngames.

I think the meta reasons are there for anyone to TR her, but I grant the reason why I’m confident in her being town is specific to me. But I would expect ali and GL to be aware of her recent trends in games seeing as they’re both familiar with her, and so that’s my issue with their scumreads on her.

[Alisae]

Umlaut is shipping linen big sad

[Alisae]

Inspect Linen
Ship Copper

[Alisae]

VOTE: NK15