Newbie 2016: Snapdragons (Game Over)

[Nahdia]

Vote Count 1.11

Porkens (3):

JamSV, Raya36, Looker

Raya36 (2):

TheThirteenthJT, 72offsuit

TheThirteenthJT (1):

Porkens

Battle Mage (1):

LicketyQuickety

Not Voting (2):

Battle Mage, ClarkBar

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-07-11 13:52:07)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Mod Note:

Please let me know if there are any errors in my vote count, thanks.

[Looker]

My percentages are based off who I think are most likely to flip scum based on who they've tried to flip and who's tried to flip them. Clark is at 0 because he's basic and there's no interaction to influence me to flip him. Especially at the time of that post. I

am

a replacement, though, so, if I've missed something, let me know.

[Battle Mage]

Ok Lucky reveal. Jam basically covers it later that this would be monumentally dumb play for town in the event there were masons because they would either outright counter-claim, or just continue to attack Lucky. So I don't buy the argument that if Lucky was town, people attacking the TPR claim are necessarily scummy at all - also because, it's just an unusual limb for scum to go out on. Moreover, this is actually the self-described reason for his claim, as well as because he thought Lick's arrival meant his goose would be cooked. In terms of partners, less likely to be 72o or TTJT based on the order.

This reveal shortly followed my arrival, although the Blopp momentum had largely subsided by then, as well as some pressure from Quick. But not sure on timing of reveal. Perhaps it didn't make him as obvtown as he hoped, because the wagon on him didn't go away (Quick left, not sure who else?). Could be pressure from scumbuddy, or guilty at replacing out and giving successor a difficult choice. Equally, would make sense to do this if he was town and had just fakeclaimed for shits and giggles. But I can't buy him pulling the fakeclaim in the first place for no good reason, as an allegedly experienced player with 40 newbie games under his belt.

I am going to give my thoughts and bounce. Let's start with the bomb I have to drop. I retract my TPR claim. I'm going to wager that my slot ends up getting eliminated today, so go ahead and do it before the replacement comes in and has to unfairly defend a fake claim they didn't make. After miskicking my slot town is down to 5v2, so they have 1 more free miskick before having to eliminate 2 mafia in order to win. My goal here is to give an elimination pool of 3 players, and hopefully get both scum correct so that town can just sheep this post after they know my slot is town and win the game. This is probably going to be lower effort than it should be, because aside from 72o and Thirteen, this town really doesn't deserve to win. I'm only doing this because it's unfair not to obvtown a little bit before replacing out and possibly putting someone into the position of defending a fake claim they didn't make. With that said, I'm going to give my reads as a list but instead of explaining them individually I'm going to just give a wall analysis of the gamestate and how individual players fit in at the end.

Lucky

72o

Thirteen

Looker

Quick

JamSV

Clark

BM

Raya

I fake claimed because once Quick replaced in I realized he was going to hard push my slot continually throughout the game because he has an obsession with me, and wanted to either delay my elimination today and soak up a mafia NK or RB in setup A, or get eliminated anyway and make mafia obvscum in their efforts to push a claimed TPR. I'm pretty sure I've done the latter well enough.

72o and Thirteen have shared a lot of my thoughts this game. I've held back on openly quoting either of them and agreeing with them because this game has been very straightforward up until bad!town sheeped Raya's counterpush from the Blopp slot onto me. They both have very town mindsets that can be easily traced in their ISOs. 72o has been seeing the game exactly as I have WRT Blopp / Raya. They also treated a TPR claim on a town-read exactly as one should. If people wanted to push my slot for the blanket TPR claim then their play should have continued along the lines of "Lucky's still scummy for the reasons that he was scummy before, therefore he's still scummy now." Instead, the push warped into, "TPR always needs to full claim." Think about this from both perspectives. Mafia has no reason to believe I'm lying about my claim, so they know that I'm not going to get eliminated if I full claim. What they want to know is the setup. Once one TPR full claims, mafia knows what setup we're in. That's Raya's angle, and that's why JamSV's play is so disgustingly bad, because he's doing the legwork

for the mafia

. One they know the setup, they know whether or not the TPR is a safe kill, or in case of column A if they should roleblock the TPR.

I'm willing to put JamSV as town despite his active effort to help mafia win by sorting the setup for them and pushing a TPR claim because (1) I think his desire to eliminate my slot is largely confbiased from a disdain he has towards me from our earlier discussions. Mafia is more open to the idea that people angle for specific reasons and are less able to fake a confbias tunnel. (2) He wants to make up for throwing the last game and is trying to solve the game himself in order to make up for it. He's got a stats background and is the sort of player who finds it more comfortable to understand the bare mechanics of the game than player behavior. It makes sense for a player with his background to want to solve using the matrix rather than by developing their capacity to read behavior and motivation.

The Homura (Looker) and Quick slots I have less to go on, but their positioning relative to gamestate lets them be town. If NK's or investigations intervene with the PoE I provide and you find yourselves with an extra elimination, re-evaluate these slots first. I questioned Homura's positioning WRT my earlier argument with JamSV, but that was more to generate discussion on new topics than to throw shade at Homura. I feel that Homura's positioning is completely normal for someone who (1) doesn't understand the stats argument and, (2) is still salty at being universally townread all game only to have me redirect a wagon from town!me to scum!her, indicating the first point in 3 day phases she received a single scum read, and getting her eliminated literally minutes before the day phase expired in our past game together. I deduce that she's still salty based on one of the comments she made this game. Also, don't hold Quick pushing the three most town players in the game (72o, Thirteen, and myself) against him. That's literally his MO, self-destructing the town as town.

I'm still sold on the BM slot being scum. Sorry BM, you've been dealt a bad hand. People can deny newbie tells as legitimate, but they still work. The only reason he's not a solid

red

is because of the possibilities of angles Raya has taken. I feel that Raya has to act the way she has if Blopp is scum, because she can't win the game alone once Blopp is eliminated. I didn't immediately switch from Blopp to Raya when posting my analysis on her slot because I was giving her the benefit of the doubt, but her continued pushing in bad faith, her constant attempts to buddy half the player list, and some of 72o's points on her slot have convinced me she's 100% scum. If Blopp (BM) is scum, Raya is

always

scum. The only case where Raya is scum and blopp (BM) is not is one where Raya took an incredibly aggressive position of hard defending town!Blopp while chainsaw pushing me in hopes of chain eliminating which ever one of us doesn't get eliminated D1. In that case, Clark is positioned with the highest partner equity for Raya. I decide this because of their early interactions with Raya and their latest ISO of Raya where Raya magically becomes town at the end of it. I think it's more likely that Clark is just new and still learning than that they are scumbuddies with Raya. I think newbie scum might be more likely to join their scumbuddy in pushing me. Maybe Clark should be higher up on the list of townies, I think he's only this low because in the small case where Raya is playing super aggressively and wasn't forced to by a newbie partner getting caught and bailing, she'd need a scumbuddy that's not Blopp (BM). Anyway, it's pretty much always Blopp (BM) / Raya.

@Everyone, JT is right in 442 and 443. I actually didn't realize that I was still in queue when I received a role pm for this game and probably should have declined it, but decided to play anyway when I was dealing with some prolonged annoyances IRL and I let that seep into my discourse this game. I'd like to apologize to anyone I've personally attacked this game, especially the newbies. There's no need for bitterness in mafia, especially in newbie games.

@Mod, I'm out.

[JamSV]

Looker replaced Homura: Lurky as fuck. How can I read this?

I'm not lurky, you just have nothing better to do with your time. You made 72 posts in the course of a day. I have things to do, a job, and an occupation where I don't have access to my phone.

Spoiler:

Ok sorry about contributing to 10 pages today. I just finished my secodnnd read through and here’s my new spicy take:

Reya is ropebait and scum are setting up to mishang her.

El Town:
JamSV replaced individual
ClarkBar
LicketyQuickety (SE) replaced EchoVision
Raya36 (SE)
Porkens (SE) replaced LuckyLuciano

Scum are in:
Looker replaced Homura
72offsuit
Battle Mage replaced Blopp
TheThirteenthJT

(Now there is an alternate universe where Echo was scum with Blooper but that’s pretty tinfoil)

Anyway, could be shit, but there you have it.

VOTE: TheThirteenthJT

Flip preferences: 29% Porkens | 20% JamSV | 16% Raya | 14% ThirteenthJT or LicketyQuick | 12% Battle Mage | 9% 72offsuit | 0% ClarkBar

---

I've been working longer hours so I'm more irritated by the time I get home. Sorry. LuckyLuciano is not a bad person. His fakeclaim and AtE are still scummy, though.

Okay so important question, I'm going to assume, that it is in order of scum likeliness, such that the higher percentage we have, the scummier we are. In that regards, why is Clark 0%, a perfect town read, I find it interesting given none of us have him as our strongest town read. Can we interpret it as mason buddies / scum buddies, as realistically, even if I was convinced Battle Mage was the towniest town that town has ever seen, there's still a chance something could change and I'd want to remove him, the 0% seems suspicious if we consider % by scum likeliness.

If we consider % instead by removing based off of scum likeliness + you liking their play style, I think the 0% on Clark and the 9% on A9offsuit makes less sense. I'd like an explanation on 72offsuit's if that's the case.

As such, instead of leaving this up to interpretation what %s represent and why you have the numbers, could you care to order us by scum likeliness?

[Battle Mage]

Clarkbar - a couple bits in your readslist below.

There seems to be quite a bit about LicketyQuickety's play you don't understand, but have you asked him about it? if not, why not?
In particular, I agree the "unvote" in light of LL's fakeclaim looked weird (I may come back to this sequence), and don't see from your own description how you've got him as null/town here.

You also note you find some of my play confusing - can you elaborate? Calling me out for not contributing much, 1 day after I joined, a bit harsh! In contrast to your Quick read, you view my slot with suspicion, although not clear from your analysis why that is the case?

I've been reticent in giving reads because I fear that giving even mild town-reads will influence my own perspective whether I'm conscious of it or not. However I have observed more experienced players do so regularly, so maybe my thinking on that is wrong. Also, this exercise may prove valuable for me. There might be some repetitive stuff here, and sorry for the wall of text. Let me start with where my vote is...

Homura/Looker:

Not a huge fan of not giving a reason, even a random one, for the vote on LL. I don't have an issue with not liking LL's Blopp ART, but there is a bit of a misrepresentation by Homura that LL's push on Blopp comes only from that angle. In my last game I disregarded a player that just posted opinions and was reactive instead of proactive and I got burned by doing so. I saw similar behavior from Homura and wanted to engage with her more. As it turns out she may just not have had any interest in the game whatsoever. There is replacement and I'm eager to hear their thoughts. At the moment there is no good reason for my vote to be where it is.

UNVOTE: Homura/Looker

And in no particular order...

Blopp/Battle Mage:

LL seems to feel that first-time scum will give a greeting in their first post, but I don't know the merit of that argument. Ultimately there are three posts that are pretty much fluff. I think 23 was just an attempt to get conversation going. 29 isn't that exciting to me either, but I may be missing something big about RQS. So now we get to the ART issue. I don't think it's as reachy as some others do, but it also wasn't near enough for me to join the wagon. Now we have Battle Mage in the slot. BM was in my first game and I liked playing with him. So far this game he hasn't contributed much, and I'm a little confused by his last few posts. I have no read on him yet. The slot itself I do look at with some suspicion.

TheThirteenthJT:

Wants an early wagon on me, which is fine. I don't know how anyone would read 52 seriously, but nothing wrong with kicking the tires. Seems to share my opinion on LL's push on Blopp. This is where issues with Raya pop up. 13JT feels that Raya moving her vote onto LL is a result of pressure by him and the reasons are forced. 13JT brings up how it is interesting that Jam put Blopp at E-1 and isn't getting called out for it. I shared this same concern in my ISO of Raya. 13JT continues to criticize Raya's criticism of LL's criticism of Blopp. Again, it appears 13JT and I are on the same page regarding the quality of the case on Blopp. And it's true, that has been the wagon that has generated the most discussion. The thought of a Raya/Homura scum team is welcomed by 13JT and he moves his vote over to Raya. Says I failed a test (for the love of God I can't wait to find out how). 13JT then comes back to the ART and puts more stock into it. This is a little odd to come back to something already discussed and have such a stronger opinion about it, but I can see that happening with rereads. It's likely to happen to me. What is strange is to then say that the Blopp wagon has scum outside of Jam. Not sure I follow this, and I don't follow the distancing accusation made towards Quick and Raya. Kinda agree on policy-lynching players like LL. I think I have a slight-town read on 13JT.

LicketyQuickety:

Seems to come in with some baggage from a previous game. I don't discount meta, but like I've said I'm not going to go read old games unless the circumstances dictate a need to. I don't follow the suspicion on 72 for asking why he was asked for reads. That's a big yawn for me. Goes on to post some "music". Gets into it a little bit with LL, again I'm not going to worry about LL's meta. Especially if Quick is correct and he's actively manipulating his play. I'm sorry, but I'm just not that interested in pursuing a case(s) that are rooted in Newbie 2007. I do agree that claiming a PR does not clear you of suspicion, and if I had the certainty about a player that Quick has about LL I would be totally unimpressed by the claim. And, as it turns out LL was lying. I don't understand the unvote in 291. I don't get the 13JT vote. I thought the avatar for BM was a sweet thing to do, but obviously not AI. I do believe the lack of a grudge/agenda against LL despite how hard she came down on him upon entering the game. Null/town.

JamSV

There is some baggage here. I single-handedly lost my first game for town by hammering Jam. I'm a little more cautious with how I look at him now. He likes to put players at E-1, and doesn't always follow that vote up with any kind of questioning or anything. So the E-1 vote on Blopp was no surprise to me at all. I don't understand his position on quick hammers being unlikely or not being AI considering what went down our last game together. The spat between Jam and LL is interesting, even if I find the statistics stuff goofy. I love 116, and I agree with Jam. Jam predicts a 72/LL scum team, a prediction that I suppose Quick would appreciate. Now that I'm starting to get to know Jam a little better I like it when he gets aggravated. I don't disagree with Jam's take on the ART, I just find it more potentially scummy than he does. I'm not going to take Jam thinking BM was the best player in our last game personally. I'm not. I'm really not. I don't like the speculation on PR's, but I don't find it scummy either. I'm not experienced enough to know the best way to approach a claim like LL made. I think I have to put Jam in my town-bloc for now.

Raya36:

Well I just did an ISO on her, so this will be brief. I totally appreciate 13JT's suspicion. As I've said, the whole thing with LL not unvoting is thin and weird, especially given Jam's E-1 vote going unmentioned. LL seems to think my change of opinion happens "magically", but it's a result of Raya's response to the things that really bothered me. I might be easily swayed, but I believed her reasoning. I do think I gave her too much of a town-read, she's more null for me.

LuckyLuciano:

I don't have an issue with the initial reasons for the vote on Blopp, even if they didn't inspire me much. I don't have an issue with the ART, and I don't have an issue with not unvoting Bopp when put at E-1. I like that despite pressure to let go of the Blopp vote, LL sticks to his guns. I like 239. I don't really care about Newbie 2007. I don't feel that LL is being obtuse about Quick's case on him. That fucking claim though. At this point in the game I didn't have a scum-read on LL so I chose to believe the claim. It did bother me a little that the claim was made when there was no stated intent to hammer, but I just came off a game where quickhammers closed out 2 of the 3 days so I can see why town would do that. But this claim is apparently a lie, and this is where LL's tone really changes. Lying about being a PR while town seems really reckless to me and I don't see the value. So here is where I have to make a choice about how I view this slot. Is it that 1. LL is scum who was trying to push an early misexecute but was too stubborn to back off from pressure, got pouty about the wagon on him, made a false claim to shake off the attention, and then essentially rage quit (which is a bit hypocritical) while throwing shade at the people in the game who were pressuring him OR is that that 2. LL is town who strongly felt that the case on Blopp was solid gold, got frustrated by people disagreeing with his case/logic, is easily butthurt by Quick and Jam, and made the claim to refocus attention elsewhere, and then rage-quit because things weren't going his way? I think I'm going to land on the first option being a little more likely, and that largely is due to the claim. I don't see a town benefit to it as strongly as I see a scum benefit. Furthermore, scum!LL taking back the claim prevents any need to claim a specific role and cleans the slate for his replacement. I will reserve my vote until a replacement comes in, but I don't know how they can really answer for LL. I think I'd be comfortable hammering this slot.

72offsuit:

Agrees with LL on the early Blopp case. If he is a scum buddy with LL then this seems a somewhat bold move. Introduces the RQS as a "great scum hunting tool" but declines to answer the questions. The might be a joke though considering 72 then does answer the questions a little later. Very aloof. People accuse 72 of being evasive, I find him to be more blasé in tone than evasive. Interestingly 72 seems to come around to the idea that the Blopp ART isn't very strong. So why is the vote still there? I don't care about Newbie 2007. Ok, so 72 feels that the Blopp wagon is garbage, and thought his vote was on Raya. I don't like this, maybe I'm not following along well enough. 72 seems to be defending LL's push on Blopp, was a part of that push, then declared it a garbage wagon and moved his vote to a player who was pressuring LL. He gives LL the benefit of the doubt repeatedly, but granted he has somewhat of a history with LL. I don't have enough experience to have a strong stance on when it's appropriate to claim a specific power-role. But, if the LL slot is scum then it does seem to me that scum would rather not have any specific claims made in case they get called out. So, is 72's motive to not have LL claim born out of a desire to not have town speculate on the setup, or as an act of preservation for their scum-partner? That's a tough call for me to make right now. A flip on the LL slot seems to me to be of the greatest value right now.

Sorry if that was sloppily done. If there are any questions, comments, or concerns please share them. I might have missed obvious stuff.

Quick creeping up to Clark below - strikes a bit of a contrast to his play up to this point. Defends LL on the basis that someone could replace in and undo everything that had happened - weak mafia play, but not AI. The implication that this is scummy/bad from Clark doesn't sit well though "that's a bit of a concern" sounds like a warning.

@Clark,

That's a good post and I think you have things pretty well mapped out. I also find you gave a fair and balanced look at each player though I'm not convinced that means you are Town.

My one concern is that you want to flip LL before seeing who replaces that slot. That's a bit of a concern but not a huge one. Other than that, I think if you keep playing you could be a fine player and have already shown you have the analytical capabilities to be a pretty good Town player even if you are Scum here.

[Battle Mage]

I’m on mobile right now, so I can’t respond to some stuff. Raya/LL scumteam fascinates me though. They would have done quite a terrific distancing job were that the case...

Also, loving this sweet sweet BM posting. Will continue tomorrow? You just got started! What a tease.

I laughed harder at this than your description of yourself as "a bit lush"

I think an LL scum-flip should give an easy solve, although I haven't worked that through yet - will do that once I've experienced the whole game. Plenty of time left yet!

Why is the "easy" route out the best one?

Inane question, but I'll bite. Easy solve means easy town-win. From recollection, none of our past games together have ended in a townwin.
Occam's razor means much more likely Lucky is scum than town.

Looker
LicketyQuickety
JamS

Only 2 town-reads when from !town BM's PoV there are 7 other town?
Yeah nah. Scummy reads list.

No buys - scum more likely to shill loads of townreads. And I was only a few pages into the game at that point.

72, does BM’s posting make you reconsider the Blopp wagon as garbage?

In what way? BM is scummy.

Why?

Raya's 428 is the scummiest post in this game. Please everyone take the time to follow this exchange.

dude no.

Ever heard of too-good-to-be-true?

Sometimes a good thing is just a good thing.

Why are you answering what I'm directing at BM?

Because I have an opinion.

That's fine. It'd nice if you held of until BM answered though.

you actually wanted me to answer that?

Looker
LicketyQuickety
JamS

Only 2 town-reads when from !town BM's PoV there are 7 other town?
Yeah nah. Scummy reads list.

Agree. Didn't like his long silence either but that might now be AI. Just felt they could have posted earlier if they wanted.

Why is everyone TRing 13 so hard?

Weak shade, piggybacking 72o. Long silence is quite a stretch! I was posting heavy content from like 1 day after I joined, and even before that I definitely wasn't silent.

Worried about TTJT being universally townread - one mislynch off the table.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick creeping up to Clark below

Screw you.

[Battle Mage]

72, did you read my summation of my feelings about you? Why were you on a wagon for a player and then later say the wagon was garbage? I need more from you regarding your read on Raya. Why do you consistently apologize for LL? Seems to me you find LL to be totally town, so how can you simultaneously dislike the Blopp wagon and yet find BM scummy and the LL slot town?

What prompted you to ask this question?

Because you've stated your disdain for the Blopp wagon despite being briefly on it and dismissing criticisms of its primary architect. BM is in that slot now, and BM is scummy to you. What impact does this have for you in terms of the Blopp wagon?


428 is the scummiest post of the game? Do tell! I'm a big dummy and can miss the obvious.

No i didn;t recall any particular summation or any outstanding questions. Please post the post number. It's hard enough following the thread without links or a number. If its something you really want answered or responded to, the easier you make it, the more likely someone will do it.

It's the scummiest post, because not many people have actually come out and said they believed LL's claim was real, despite raya saying
"So why are we just blindly trusting Lucky's PR claim"

Why didn;t raya just direct that towards me?
It gives me the impresssion raya knows I;m town and has extrapolated my view onto "town" in general.

The fact raya disappeared, after I challenged her, is pretty telling in its own right.

I really like this. I mean, I think you're wrong, but it definitely seems like you might be eligible to join the BM School of Scumhunting.

This is the scumteam:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Blopp

For having the word Townie as a title as fake town.

He's mafia, my vote is no longer random.

Agreed.

VOTE: Blopp

THANK YOU NEXT!

dude no...

Spoiler:

I've been reticent in giving reads because I fear that giving even mild town-reads will influence my own perspective whether I'm conscious of it or not. However I have observed more experienced players do so regularly, so maybe my thinking on that is wrong. Also, this exercise may prove valuable for me. There might be some repetitive stuff here, and sorry for the wall of text. Let me start with where my vote is...

Homura/Looker:

Not a huge fan of not giving a reason, even a random one, for the vote on LL. I don't have an issue with not liking LL's Blopp ART, but there is a bit of a misrepresentation by Homura that LL's push on Blopp comes only from that angle. In my last game I disregarded a player that just posted opinions and was reactive instead of proactive and I got burned by doing so. I saw similar behavior from Homura and wanted to engage with her more. As it turns out she may just not have had any interest in the game whatsoever. There is replacement and I'm eager to hear their thoughts. At the moment there is no good reason for my vote to be where it is.

UNVOTE: Homura/Looker

And in no particular order...

Blopp/Battle Mage:

LL seems to feel that first-time scum will give a greeting in their first post, but I don't know the merit of that argument. Ultimately there are three posts that are pretty much fluff. I think 23 was just an attempt to get conversation going. 29 isn't that exciting to me either, but I may be missing something big about RQS. So now we get to the ART issue. I don't think it's as reachy as some others do, but it also wasn't near enough for me to join the wagon. Now we have Battle Mage in the slot. BM was in my first game and I liked playing with him. So far this game he hasn't contributed much, and I'm a little confused by his last few posts. I have no read on him yet. The slot itself I do look at with some suspicion.

TheThirteenthJT:

Wants an early wagon on me, which is fine. I don't know how anyone would read 52 seriously, but nothing wrong with kicking the tires. Seems to share my opinion on LL's push on Blopp. This is where issues with Raya pop up. 13JT feels that Raya moving her vote onto LL is a result of pressure by him and the reasons are forced. 13JT brings up how it is interesting that Jam put Blopp at E-1 and isn't getting called out for it. I shared this same concern in my ISO of Raya. 13JT continues to criticize Raya's criticism of LL's criticism of Blopp. Again, it appears 13JT and I are on the same page regarding the quality of the case on Blopp. And it's true, that has been the wagon that has generated the most discussion. The thought of a Raya/Homura scum team is welcomed by 13JT and he moves his vote over to Raya. Says I failed a test (for the love of God I can't wait to find out how). 13JT then comes back to the ART and puts more stock into it. This is a little odd to come back to something already discussed and have such a stronger opinion about it, but I can see that happening with rereads. It's likely to happen to me. What is strange is to then say that the Blopp wagon has scum outside of Jam. Not sure I follow this, and I don't follow the distancing accusation made towards Quick and Raya. Kinda agree on policy-lynching players like LL. I think I have a slight-town read on 13JT.

LicketyQuickety:

Seems to come in with some baggage from a previous game. I don't discount meta, but like I've said I'm not going to go read old games unless the circumstances dictate a need to. I don't follow the suspicion on 72 for asking why he was asked for reads. That's a big yawn for me. Goes on to post some "music". Gets into it a little bit with LL, again I'm not going to worry about LL's meta. Especially if Quick is correct and he's actively manipulating his play. I'm sorry, but I'm just not that interested in pursuing a case(s) that are rooted in Newbie 2007. I do agree that claiming a PR does not clear you of suspicion, and if I had the certainty about a player that Quick has about LL I would be totally unimpressed by the claim. And, as it turns out LL was lying. I don't understand the unvote in 291. I don't get the 13JT vote. I thought the avatar for BM was a sweet thing to do, but obviously not AI. I do believe the lack of a grudge/agenda against LL despite how hard she came down on him upon entering the game. Null/town.

JamSV

There is some baggage here. I single-handedly lost my first game for town by hammering Jam. I'm a little more cautious with how I look at him now. He likes to put players at E-1, and doesn't always follow that vote up with any kind of questioning or anything. So the E-1 vote on Blopp was no surprise to me at all. I don't understand his position on quick hammers being unlikely or not being AI considering what went down our last game together. The spat between Jam and LL is interesting, even if I find the statistics stuff goofy. I love 116, and I agree with Jam. Jam predicts a 72/LL scum team, a prediction that I suppose Quick would appreciate. Now that I'm starting to get to know Jam a little better I like it when he gets aggravated. I don't disagree with Jam's take on the ART, I just find it more potentially scummy than he does. I'm not going to take Jam thinking BM was the best player in our last game personally. I'm not. I'm really not. I don't like the speculation on PR's, but I don't find it scummy either. I'm not experienced enough to know the best way to approach a claim like LL made. I think I have to put Jam in my town-bloc for now.

Raya36:

Well I just did an ISO on her, so this will be brief. I totally appreciate 13JT's suspicion. As I've said, the whole thing with LL not unvoting is thin and weird, especially given Jam's E-1 vote going unmentioned. LL seems to think my change of opinion happens "magically", but it's a result of Raya's response to the things that really bothered me. I might be easily swayed, but I believed her reasoning. I do think I gave her too much of a town-read, she's more null for me.

LuckyLuciano:

I don't have an issue with the initial reasons for the vote on Blopp, even if they didn't inspire me much. I don't have an issue with the ART, and I don't have an issue with not unvoting Bopp when put at E-1. I like that despite pressure to let go of the Blopp vote, LL sticks to his guns. I like 239. I don't really care about Newbie 2007. I don't feel that LL is being obtuse about Quick's case on him. That fucking claim though. At this point in the game I didn't have a scum-read on LL so I chose to believe the claim. It did bother me a little that the claim was made when there was no stated intent to hammer, but I just came off a game where quickhammers closed out 2 of the 3 days so I can see why town would do that. But this claim is apparently a lie, and this is where LL's tone really changes. Lying about being a PR while town seems really reckless to me and I don't see the value. So here is where I have to make a choice about how I view this slot. Is it that 1. LL is scum who was trying to push an early misexecute but was too stubborn to back off from pressure, got pouty about the wagon on him, made a false claim to shake off the attention, and then essentially rage quit (which is a bit hypocritical) while throwing shade at the people in the game who were pressuring him OR is that that 2. LL is town who strongly felt that the case on Blopp was solid gold, got frustrated by people disagreeing with his case/logic, is easily butthurt by Quick and Jam, and made the claim to refocus attention elsewhere, and then rage-quit because things weren't going his way? I think I'm going to land on the first option being a little more likely, and that largely is due to the claim. I don't see a town benefit to it as strongly as I see a scum benefit. Furthermore, scum!LL taking back the claim prevents any need to claim a specific role and cleans the slate for his replacement. I will reserve my vote until a replacement comes in, but I don't know how they can really answer for LL. I think I'd be comfortable hammering this slot.

72offsuit:

Agrees with LL on the early Blopp case. If he is a scum buddy with LL then this seems a somewhat bold move. Introduces the RQS as a "great scum hunting tool" but declines to answer the questions. The might be a joke though considering 72 then does answer the questions a little later. Very aloof. People accuse 72 of being evasive, I find him to be more blasé in tone than evasive. Interestingly 72 seems to come around to the idea that the Blopp ART isn't very strong. So why is the vote still there? I don't care about Newbie 2007. Ok, so 72 feels that the Blopp wagon is garbage, and thought his vote was on Raya. I don't like this, maybe I'm not following along well enough. 72 seems to be defending LL's push on Blopp, was a part of that push, then declared it a garbage wagon and moved his vote to a player who was pressuring LL. He gives LL the benefit of the doubt repeatedly, but granted he has somewhat of a history with LL. I don't have enough experience to have a strong stance on when it's appropriate to claim a specific power-role. But, if the LL slot is scum then it does seem to me that scum would rather not have any specific claims made in case they get called out. So, is 72's motive to not have LL claim born out of a desire to not have town speculate on the setup, or as an act of preservation for their scum-partner? That's a tough call for me to make right now. A flip on the LL slot seems to me to be of the greatest value right now.

Sorry if that was sloppily done. If there are any questions, comments, or concerns please share them. I might have missed obvious stuff.

Positive: Regardless if town or scum appreciate the effort in this post. Keeps the game moving.
Negative: Pretty much disagree with half the reads here.

1. You say you are confused about BM's posts, but I don;t see you actually clarifying them or any follow-up on your behalf.

2. TTJT and I have similar reads but somehow I am scummy and he is town. The read on TTJT and myself doesn;t really match up.

3. Read on Quick seems reasonable, like it could be from a town-mindset.

4. "I think I have to put Jam in my town-bloc for now". Pretty much zero discussion about Jam's actual ALIGNMENT, just goes on about why you like Jam, so I still have no idea how you conclude to put him as a town read.

5. The ISO on raya just feels really underwhelming, once again I'm not really getting the vibe of alignment sorting, it just feels like Information Instead of Analysis. Furthermore I don;t understand why Raya was chosen as the only player to be ISO'ed.

6. In my experience recklessness tends to come from town, not scum. Town speak their mind, their goal is simply to poke and prod and try to find scum.
Scum generally are more calculating - they care more about how they are perceived as scum doesn;t want to attract attention to themselves.

7. I think you can ask everyone here, if they think setup speculation is pro-town or pro-scum.
Once again, I don;t see why you are questioning my vote on Blopp as compared to TTJT.

8. Overall don;t see much here regarding motivation/intent of players. It mostly just feels like a recap of whats occurred in the game.

agree with lots of this. much more effort than I've seen from 72 before. Welcome to the townbloc.

7 is a slight ping. It's a commonly known tell that true newbies are statistically more likely to start their first post in forum games with a greeting when they roll mafia.

Hmm, ok. So why didn't you vote for me? Or more Homura, who arguably ducked out even harder...

23 is a slightly larger ping. It's LAMIST (Look at me, I'm so town). She's 'trying to move from RVS' by asking Clark what moved their game from RVS without moving the game forward herself. More specifically, she's offering content that at first glance appears to look town but upon closer inspection is not in any way AI because it doesn't offer any real thoughts. That's typically scum.

Yeah, I get what you're saying, but that appears to be way more of a way of moving the conversation than intentional fluff posting. She even threw a wink at the end referencing my post about breaking the ice.

Finally, I don't like how she disappeared after getting 2 votes on her in quick succession. She posted after them, and with the preview feature she has to have seen them. Seems panicky to just dip out like that.

Maybe she didn't take it seriously. I do want to see her respond to your points for herself, I just find your reasons pretty thin.

Townpoints for Clark - no reason to defend the newbie here as scum.

@Clark, you have a completed game. Homura has many completed games.

I'm singling out the easiest target with a 'case' which flatters to deceive.

If you want to move the game from RVS, why are you defending Blopp instead of seeing what comes of this?

Just piss off and let me bully the newbie

Also, do not go out of your way to explain the reasoning of others. You are not a God who can read minds, none of us are. Let them explain themselves.

Let them try and explain their way out of my largely bogus case on Page 2, or I'll pick on you instead?

No comment here on Clark towntell

What follows is a gross sequence of posts from Raya (viewer discretion advised):

I want to see what comes of this so I'll sheep you

VOTE: Blopp

Sheeping here is a bit yuck, especially having seen how weak case is, and Raya surely better player than that?

[...]I just find your reasons pretty thin.

Why are you responding to this instead of letting Blopp respond... how are we supposed to

get info

put of Blopp if you respond for them? Do you town read Blopp? Or scumread Lucky?

what info? since when did it become anti-town to give your opinions on things as they arise? Aggression here towards Clark is odd, given Raya hasn't actually endorsed the case itself and appeared initially to be wagonning for the sake of wagonning. As above, Blopp was set up to fail here, and the pressure to silence dissenters from the easy mislynch is NAGL.

The only reason I'm not moving my vote to Clark is because I want to hear from Blopp

What did you want to hear from him?

But by giving a response you're making it easier for scum!Blopp to

get out of a tough situation

by just saying what you said is correct and maybe expanding on it. We get no info anymore unless Blopp decides to say something extremely different from what you said.

A general guideline that's good to follow is to never respond for someone else. It only ruins the potential to gain new info from that player. Especially if what you're responding to is a case, like what you responded to

The mis-coaching from Raya here gives me the creeps. "get out of a tough situation" is a telling choice of words - Raya clearly appreciates the 'case' isn't one which a newbie could easily refute despite the fact it isn't grounded in good logic. The inference here is that Raya is expecting (maybe hoping?) Blopp won't respond in a way which "gets them out of a tough situation" and is disappointed that she was given a proverbial lifeline.

Moreover, I don't like to see SE players giving bad advice to newbies, regardless of alignment.

No reason to townread/defend a newbie as scum?
This is so wrong its not funny. Pocketing newbies is scum 101. Literally the first page of the manual. Newbies in general are much more impressionable and tend to be easier to pocket.

You're not completely wrong here - it depends on the situation. In the case above, it definitely felt easier, based on the flow of the game, for Clark-scum to attack the newbie rather than buddy them. Clark in this case, is a newbie himself, so I don't think your hypothesis applies as much. And the newbie in question was inactive anyway, so not much gained by pocketing them.

[Battle Mage]

Quick creeping up to Clark below

Screw you.

You wait till I get to your comments about his age.

[Battle Mage]

The mis-coaching from Raya here gives me the creeps. "get out of a tough situation" is a telling choice of words - Raya clearly appreciates the 'case' isn't one which a newbie could easily refute despite the fact it isn't grounded in good logic. The inference here is that Raya is expecting (maybe hoping?) Blopp won't respond in a way which "gets them out of a tough situation" and is disappointed that she was given a proverbial lifeline.

Maybe I was wrong but if so I'll listen since you have much more experience than me but I don't see how what I said was wrong. I was frustrated that Clark's response might affect how Blopp responds to the case on him. I am not in any way suggesting not to react or respond to things that interest you within the thread. But it's not town oriented to respond to a case and defend someone else even if it wasn't intended as a defense. While the case was weak his reaction to it could be very telling. I think it's a stretch to say I was upset because I wanted Blopp to not be able to get out of the case.

I think I was probably wrong on the wording choice above, so don't worry too much. I'm getting MorningTweet vibes from you - someone who is always town, but just has a way of communicating which gives me scummy vibes.

Hey, Raya. Fuck LuckyLuciano. I'm pretty sure he's just faking his outrage because he has no other tools in his skillset as scum. Him faking a PR was weak.

---

• Currently, flip preferences are: 36% LuckyLuciano or Battle Mage | 26% 72offsuit, JamSV, or ThirteenthJT | 16% LicketyQuickety | 12% ClarkBar | 10% Raya.

VOTE: LuckyLuciano

Thank you
Opinions from those with the most experience on whether or not Lucky should fully claim?

I'm amazed he hasn't claimed already.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick creeping up to Clark below

Screw you.

You wait till I get to your comments about his age.

I have nothing to hide. I'd prefer you not be a douche though.

[Battle Mage]

Porkens, you are welcome to claim if you'd like. Did you address your predecessor's false claim? What's your opinion on that? Out of curiosity. I was still in the womb when you joined this site, so your insights are like gold to me.

Ah! Flattery will get you everywhere how can I not answer?
I don’t....think I’m going to claim. Unless someone can present a strong protown case for me to do so.

And I’m not acknowledging whether it was a false claim or not.
I will say that LLs decision regarding his claim was a bad decision.

woah woah hold up! You're retracting your predecessor's retraction, and insinuating you are in fact a town PR?

I'm sold. VOTE: Porkens L-1. No hammer please until I can post final reads.

[Battle Mage]

Quick creeping up to Clark below

Screw you.

You wait till I get to your comments about his age.

I have nothing to hide. I'd prefer

you

not be a douche though.

Practice what you preach.

[Raya36]

No it’s fine!

Anyway, reya, what do you think about the reasoning for the two votes on you?

72 was attacking me since the very start so he's at least very consistent to be voting me. Don't think it's scummy for me to have lots of townleans. I tend to townhunt as much as I scumhunt and I usually have plenty of townleans D1. I feel like he's been putting a lot of his attention on me yet I don't feel pressured by him? So I guess I don't think the reasoning is that good. His analysis of my LL push isn't bad though and makes sense. But it's just kinda felt no matter what I say he twists it to be scummy which is why I've kinda been ignoring his posts like that. That including myself in the "we" of town is for example something that makes me feel like he's just twisting my words to be scummy. That's super nitpicky. But I don't like to read too much into people pushing me because I always immediately assume it's scum trying to make me sound like scum. Or he's town tunneling me.

thethirteenth feels a lot more natural than 72. More reasonable questioning and much less aggressive. They're mostly both going after my LL case but his push on me feels a lot calmer. He also asked for second opinions on my iso and stuff.

[Raya36]

I’m not going to spend any time or energy trying to defend LL’s play, evaluate his ISO, or trying to make a towncase of it. Like I said

i thought he was scum

. His decisions were his, and they were bad.

My job here is not to avoid getting hanged. It’s to help the town get information.

Re: your answer. I’m going to be pedantic here and ask you in a different way: in a vacuum, do you think claiming a PR shakes attention away from the claimant?

I'm really getting the innocent act from Porkens. If he's scum it's really the best move he can make in his position.

[Porkens]

What would be the best move as town?

[ClarkBar]

What would be the best move as town?

Execute you.

I unvoted you because of your comment on Raya. It was indeed spicy. I've struggled with that slot and you pretty much exactly summed up one of my fears regarding it. Also, I didn't want you at E-1 while I slept.

Now that I'm awake and sober (albeit hungover) I don't see that as a super worthwhile avenue to pursue. At least not right now.

Intent to hammer. I'll abide by BM's request for him to catch up.

[Battle Mage]

What would be the best move as town?

Execute you.

I unvoted you because of your comment on Raya. It was indeed spicy. I've struggled with that slot and you pretty much exactly summed up one of my fears regarding it. Also, I didn't want you at E-1 while I slept.

Now that I'm awake and sober (albeit hungover) I don't see that as a super worthwhile avenue to pursue. At least not right now.

Intent to hammer. I'll abide by BM's request for him to catch up.

Cheers dude, I'll be done within next 4 hours.

[ClarkBar]

You also note you find some of my play confusing - can you elaborate? Calling me out for not contributing much, 1 day after I joined, a bit harsh! In contrast to your Quick read, you view my slot with suspicion, although not clear from your analysis why that is the case?

It was a bit harsh, as was 685. Play the game the way you like, I don't know why I got so aggro about it.

I didn't find your play confusing, there were some short posts you made soon after you replaced in that seemed like they may have belonged in a different thread or something. Nothing I consider AI.

[LicketyQuickety]

TheThirteenthJT, JamSV

72offsuit, Porkens (SE), Looker

ClarkBar, Raya36 (SE)

Battle Mage

[Porkens]

What would be the best move as town?

Execute you.

I unvoted you because of your comment on Raya. It was indeed spicy. I've struggled with that slot and you pretty much exactly summed up one of my fears regarding it. Also, I didn't want you at E-1 while I slept.

Now that I'm awake and sober (albeit hungover) I don't see that as a super worthwhile avenue to pursue. At least not right now.

Intent to hammer. I'll abide by BM's request for him to catch up.

If you are going to answer a question that was directed at someone else, you could at least do so in good faith. What is MY best move replacing into this game as town?

[ClarkBar]

If you are going to answer a question that was directed at someone else, you could at least do so in good faith. What is MY best move replacing into this game as town?

Regardless of your alignment I would say that you've played appropriately. You came into a slot that was bonkers and scummy. You couldn't answer for the behavior of your predecessor and you were open about that. You asked questions and engaged. You were fine. All of that I appreciate, but it doesn't change my strong belief that your slot is scum. Admittedly your Raya comment gave me a lot of pause. I had almost those exact words in my head when I read your post.

Sorry for the bad faith. I knew what you meant and I was snarky. I've been in a weird mood.

[LicketyQuickety]

TheThirteenthJT, JamSV

72offsuit, Porkens (SE)

ClarkBar, Raya36, Looker (SE)

Battle Mage

This is actually more accurate but doesn't really have the design I look for with a RL.

[JamSV]

I decided to do a bit of work for Looker, because I was curious. Based off of mod's vote count posts because I'm too lazy to go through 30 pages. Thank you Nahdia.
Table of who voted for whom voted for whom:
https://imgur.com/Cv3ZhUu idk how to include images into a post properly.

A bunch of logic stuff, read if you want, but it's in a spoiler if you don't want to.

Spoiler:

Now as we know, Looker gave Clark a 0% chance to be scum based off of who voted him, and who he voted for. He voted for Looker himself, and Porkens. Obviously he will treat himself as town, that means voting for Porkens does not make you scum at all, meaning Looker scum reads Porkens.

By those standards, myself, LicketyQuickety, and Raya36 should have lower %s by his standards. That isn't the case though. Meaning, those who voted for us, make us scum. In my case, based off of Mod vote counts, nobody has voted for me, yet I'm the 2nd highest to be scum for it, weird. This is strike 1 for his post being nonsensical.

Raya was voted for by TTJT and 72os, and voted Porkens and LicketyQuickety, from this we can assume Looker town reads TTJT, 72os, and LicketyQuickety. However based off of the percentages for me, Raya, lickety, and TTJT, this makes no sense again. This is strike 2 for his post being nonsensical.

LicketyQuickety voted for Battle Mage, Porkens, 72, and TTJT, well, we just worked out TTJT and 72 were town, and a vote on porkens gave ClarkBar a 0%, so this implies Battle Mage is scum. This is strike 3 for his post being nonsensical.

Basically, what the spoiler says is, its nonsense, I could explain more but I got bored. I felt like proving his post about how he got his %s was just a lie. I really would like to see his read list on everybody, doesn't necessarily need an explanation, I'd also like an explanation between the 0% on Clark because his explanation was nonsense, and on the 9% for 72offsuit. Good news though Porkens, depending on how he responds, can change my mind into expecting a ClarkBar/Looker duo.

[LicketyQuickety]

I decided to do a bit of work for Looker, because I was curious. Based off of mod's vote count posts because I'm too lazy to go through 30 pages. Thank you Nahdia.
Table of who voted for whom voted for whom:
https://imgur.com/Cv3ZhUu idk how to include images into a post properly.

A bunch of logic stuff, read if you want, but it's in a spoiler if you don't want to.

Spoiler:

Now as we know, Looker gave Clark a 0% chance to be scum based off of who voted him, and who he voted for. He voted for Looker himself, and Porkens. Obviously he will treat himself as town, that means voting for Porkens does not make you scum at all, meaning Looker scum reads Porkens.

By those standards, myself, LicketyQuickety, and Raya36 should have lower %s by his standards. That isn't the case though. Meaning, those who voted for us, make us scum. In my case, based off of Mod vote counts, nobody has voted for me, yet I'm the 2nd highest to be scum for it, weird. This is strike 1 for his post being nonsensical.

Raya was voted for by TTJT and 72os, and voted Porkens and LicketyQuickety, from this we can assume Looker town reads TTJT, 72os, and LicketyQuickety. However based off of the percentages for me, Raya, lickety, and TTJT, this makes no sense again. This is strike 2 for his post being nonsensical.

LicketyQuickety voted for Battle Mage, Porkens, 72, and TTJT, well, we just worked out TTJT and 72 were town, and a vote on porkens gave ClarkBar a 0%, so this implies Battle Mage is scum. This is strike 3 for his post being nonsensical.

Basically, what the spoiler says is, its nonsense, I could explain more but I got bored. I felt like proving his post about how he got his %s was just a lie. I really would like to see his read list on everybody, doesn't necessarily need an explanation, I'd also like an explanation between the 0% on Clark because his explanation was nonsense, and on the 9% for 72offsuit. Good news though Porkens, depending on how he responds, can change my mind into expecting a ClarkBar/Looker duo.

I suspected it was nonsense but I am not really even sure that makes him Scum, surprisingly. Looker is a strange dude.