Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[Froppy]

I have nothing to add when it comes to mechanics but it sounds goods.

[Froppy]

I feel like I haven't seen Ari or Looker post since I've joined what's your opinion on the new stuff?

[superbowl9]

Excellent, I'm happy lynching PP then. I could have bought Midari's play if she was a PR just being overly worried about being directed, but definitely didn't feel vanilla.

Would a PR not out as a VT? I feel like anyone would have said VT if they were in that position.

A fake claim would be a really bad move as town here - I am 99% sure PP would not do this

[PenguinPower]

Excellent, I'm happy lynching PP then. I could have bought Midari's play if she was a PR just being overly worried about being directed, but definitely didn't feel vanilla.

Would a PR not out as a VT? I feel like anyone would have said VT if they were in that position.

A fake claim would be a really bad move as town here - I am 99% sure PP would not do this

Dear god you have no understanding of how I play this game.

I did watch the Princess Bride tonight in honor of you.

[PenguinPower]

Should I construct a 5 paragraph argument against superbowl’s most recent comment?

Click like if you think I should.

[Doctor Drew]

Excellent, I'm happy lynching PP then. I could have bought Midari's play if she was a PR just being overly worried about being directed, but definitely didn't feel vanilla.

Would a PR not out as a VT? I feel like anyone would have said VT if they were in that position.

A fake claim would be a really bad move as town here - I am 99% sure PP would not do this

Dear god you have no understanding of how I play this game.

I did watch the Princess Bride tonight in honor of you.

Wooo doggy....

Love that low key shade Penguin just brought.

[superbowl9]

Spoiler: more theory

I agree that there is no sound theoretical way to really model or predict this behavior, which is why in my mind it comes down to personal preference. That's why it struck me as incorrect for PP to assume that scum would be so likely to play this scenario in one way that he's setting a lynch pool solely based on this factor.

Sidenote - as scum I really don't think I would bus in that scenario - I'd consider it, but VCA had already started to be used halfway through D1 in this game lol. You just KNOW someone's going to try to make a VCA argument - much as PP would KNOW that a bus is optimal in that scenario. This is why imo WIFOM is a key component of this situation - you can't just assume everyone will operate at one level or another.

I don't believe that it is a reasonable estimate to say that the vast majority, or even most players would bus in this situation. The way I see it there's 2 reasons make this estimate: theory or outcome. We've already talked about how the theory is murky at best, but I suspect PP was using his past knowledge of outcome in similar situations to predict the outcome of this one as well. The big problem with this, though, is that humans are naturally TOO GOOD at pattern-seeking.

Firstly, you are more likely to remember exciting or significant outliers. You're more likely to remember a successful bus than a non-bus, since not bussing is just seen as a default or more boring option. So, over many repetitions, humans will almost always be bad at estimating this type of stuff - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia.

Secondly, the past meta within a certain situation is not necessarily indicative of current meta. Even if 200/200 people have bussed in this type of scenario previously, this only RAISES the opportunity cost of not bussing in this game. Obviously you can only take into account the current meta in making a decision if you are aware of the meta, so if you want to divide this into newbies vs experienced that's even a whole nother level of discussion, but to generalize and say the average mafia player who presumably knows some meta is unlikely to try to abuse meta is not a good argument for me.

pedit: if you actually would VT claim here as an investigative role any significant % of the time you have huge balls and not great EV evaluations
sidenote - PB is too good a movie for me to not have watched in this long, I think I might follow your lead on this one soon

pedit 2: I would love if you did but you don't have to boss it's hard writing 5 paragraphs ToT

[Nash]

Nash!

Even if I think that from a mechanical reason PP is a better hammer, I still think from a gut read that u r more suspicious, and seems that other ppl think so too. U jumped on Maras wagon when it was about to hammer; then u jumped out and went for the no-hammer argument. Then to looker. Saying ur behavior is unusual is getting short, and it seems quite erratic tbh.
But alas,

Let me help u help urself. Why dnt u give us a narration of ur thought process from when u voted Mara to the end of D1?

Suspects at the time, hunches, the reason u didnt go to PP and found it oportune to go for Looker; anything is valid. We r not interested in how good or wrong it was, but what u thought at the time. So the more details and reads on ppl (and reasons, if there r any), the better. Ur actions didnt rly seem random, Im sure u have some reason to have acted that way.

[votato, Mara, brass, TM, ceejay] were my suspects at the time and I thought the wagon on Midari was pretty bad.
There were points against Mara from a lot of angles (unlike Midari), so I thought the likelihood of him flipping scum was higher and the chances of survival were very low (why I bought his VT claim). At this point brassherald had a completely empty ISO and his slot was present on both the top wagons (both of which I thought were likely town). Aristophanes radiated a feeling of confidence which made me reconsider my read on votato, so I put my vote on Looker.

The no hammer vote is getting a lot of artificial weight on it, and I still think the VT claim was a bad move as scum. If these are the only points against me, Looker dropped further down in my readlist. I'll have to hear more from TM to decide where I should vote. I don't feel town!Midari as much after PP's claim.

[word321]

why do u think looker is scum with mara rn? why did u think midaris wagon was bad?
has ur scumlist changed after the flip?

[Battle Mage]

Excellent, I'm happy lynching PP then. I could have bought Midari's play if she was a PR just being overly worried about being directed, but definitely didn't feel vanilla.

Would a PR not out as a VT? I feel like anyone would have said VT if they were in that position.

A fake claim would be a really bad move as town here - I am 99% sure PP would not do this

Agree with this. There were strong hints that slot was either scum or PR. If he actually claimed PR and wasn't cc'd, I'd be happy to move on to Nash. But claiming vanilla basically confirms it for me.

[Nash]

why do u think looker is scum with mara rn?

Ignoring the Drew case? I don't like the shade on my read change on Mara and the additional weight on my no-elim vote. I think the push is bad faith.

why did u think midaris wagon was bad?

I wasn't convinced by the case (following the path with least resistance - against lurkers) since they expressed their townreads on the more active players. The vote progression didn't give me scum pings either. And I suspected the slot to be a PR.

has ur scumlist changed after the flip?

No. If BM's mechanical information is true, I may have to re-evaluate.
If Drew is scum, I don't want to push PP. Midari x DD interactions don't look like SvS.

I want to eliminate in {TM, Ari}

[Battle Mage]

why do u think looker is scum with mara rn?

Ignoring the Drew case? I don't like the shade on my read change on Mara and the additional weight on my no-elim vote. I think the push is bad faith.

why did u think midaris wagon was bad?

I wasn't convinced by the case (following the path with least resistance - against lurkers) since they expressed their townreads on the more active players. The vote progression didn't give me scum pings either. And I suspected the slot to be a PR.

has ur scumlist changed after the flip?

No. If BM's mechanical information is true, I may have to re-evaluate.
If Drew is scum, I don't want to push PP. Midari x DD interactions don't look like SvS.

I want to eliminate in {TM, Ari}

I never ever want to hear that "bad faith" crap in my games again, as a justification for a vote. last time i did, that player nearly threw the entire game for town. no offence, but even if looker is scum, your case on him is non-existent.

im struggling to understand why you're pursuing an elimpool of people we clearly arent eliminating today. vanity?

given you, like me, wondered if midari was a PR and gave the slot until Day 2 on that basis why are you not voting PP now he has claimed non-PR?

i'll give all this some thought

[Nash]

Replace it with "dishonest" then. I think my logic was sound.
If DD is scum, their interactions outweigh Midari's survival instincts IMO.

[Battle Mage]

re-read Marashu's ISO. Probably Nash with the late distancing? Or potentially Worcestershire slot which is now Froppy?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Nash

[Battle Mage]

that's L-2 as well, so you may as well claim. then we are 100% eliminating either you or PP today.

[Nash]

that's L-2 as well, so you may as well claim. then we are 100% eliminating either you or PP today.

VT

[Froppy]

Spoiler:

why do u think looker is scum with mara rn?

Ignoring the Drew case? I don't like the shade on my read change on Mara and the additional weight on my no-elim vote. I think the push is bad faith.

why did u think midaris wagon was bad?

I wasn't convinced by the case (following the path with least resistance - against lurkers) since they expressed their townreads on the more active players. The vote progression didn't give me scum pings either. And I suspected the slot to be a PR.

has ur scumlist changed after the flip?

No. If BM's mechanical information is true, I may have to re-evaluate.
If Drew is scum, I don't want to push PP. Midari x DD interactions don't look like SvS.

I want to eliminate in {TM, Ari}

I never ever want to hear that "bad faith" crap in my games again, as a justification for a vote. last time i did, that player nearly threw the entire game for town. no offence, but even if looker is scum, your case on him is non-existent.

im struggling to understand why you're pursuing an elimpool of people we clearly arent eliminating today. vanity?

given you, like me, wondered if midari was a PR and gave the slot until Day 2 on that basis why are you not voting PP now he has claimed non-PR?

i'll give all this some thought

Are you sure that player threw, after some searching in your ISO a game that you recently finished had a player that sounds like the one you are talking about... and they were town read by you late game. But guess what they were not even lynched in lylo their slot was replaced and were part of the town team that mislynched to lose. SOOOOO I'm either looking at another game that had a player similar to the one you are talking about or you are just boldly lying to our faces.

[Battle Mage]

Spoiler:

why do u think looker is scum with mara rn?

Ignoring the Drew case? I don't like the shade on my read change on Mara and the additional weight on my no-elim vote. I think the push is bad faith.

why did u think midaris wagon was bad?

I wasn't convinced by the case (following the path with least resistance - against lurkers) since they expressed their townreads on the more active players. The vote progression didn't give me scum pings either. And I suspected the slot to be a PR.

has ur scumlist changed after the flip?

No. If BM's mechanical information is true, I may have to re-evaluate.
If Drew is scum, I don't want to push PP. Midari x DD interactions don't look like SvS.

I want to eliminate in {TM, Ari}

I never ever want to hear that "bad faith" crap in my games again, as a justification for a vote. last time i did, that player nearly threw the entire game for town. no offence, but even if looker is scum, your case on him is non-existent.

im struggling to understand why you're pursuing an elimpool of people we clearly arent eliminating today. vanity?

given you, like me, wondered if midari was a PR and gave the slot until Day 2 on that basis why are you not voting PP now he has claimed non-PR?

i'll give all this some thought

Are you sure that player threw, after some searching in your ISO a game that you recently finished had a player that sounds like the one you are talking about... and they were town read by you late game. But guess what they were not even lynched in lylo their slot was replaced and were part of the town team that mislynched to lose. SOOOOO I'm either looking at another game that had a player similar to the one you are talking about or you are just boldly lying to our faces.

WTMoo dude...

You're probably looking at the right game. The fact they were townread by me isn't relevant to them throwing, and wasnt even based on their play in the game anyway. The point was, they were obsessed with me "talking in bad faith" and kept trying to lynch me even though I was obviously town. So probably more accurate to say they attempted to throw the game, and then fortunately replaced out, so we could lose it on our own volition. But that's less succinct and I was trying to make the point....just don't do it.

Also, literally what would be the point of me

lying

about it? I havent even suggested it could be close to AI (and it isn't!), it's just something that pisses me off. If it was AI, it would actually be town indicative of the player I'm currently trying to eliminate! No scum motivation for me here, and it's clear you haven't thought this one through. And coming after I shaded your slot, looks a bit like OMGUS?

FoS: Froppy

[Battle Mage]

that's L-2 as well, so you may as well claim. then we are 100% eliminating either you or PP today.

VT

anyway...

sweet - either way then!

Also on that basis, I'm thinking we let the hider have 1 more go.

HIDER - tonight target the person directly above you in THIS list (alphabetical order, with slight alteration to avoid double-targetting):

Aristophanes
Battle Mage
Doctor Drew
Froppy
Looker
Nash
Gypyx
PenguinPower
superbowl9
Tuxedo Mask
word321

This will be the last day of doing this - it's possible scum can PoE the hider after tonight, so after that do not direct them! Hopefully they'll crumb or something.

Good if everyone not voting either PP or Nash can do so.

[JacksonVirgo]

VC 2.5

Doctor Drew (1)

- Tuxedo Mask

Nash (4)

- Looker, PenguinPower, superbowl9, Battle Mage

PenguinPower (3)

- word321, Froppy, Doctor Drew

No-Hammer (0)

Not Voting (6)

- Nash, Aristophanes, Gypyx

With 6 votes to hammer... Nash is at H-2

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-07-23 20:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Joined Mod iso

[Froppy]

But BM you phrased it by saying that they almost threw the whole game, anyone else does not even have to look at that game but just your response to see that you were expanding the truth in order to manipulate the situation to your favor.

[Froppy]

Rather than just admitting that I caught you fibbing you then try to turn it against me.

[Froppy]

FoS: BM

[Battle Mage]

But BM you phrased it by saying that they almost threw the whole game, anyone else does not even have to look at that game but just your response to see that you were expanding the truth in order to manipulate the situation to your favor.

Dear Froppy,

Please read my previous response to you again. For added emphasis I will paraphrase here.

1. I was making the point that I find it completely annoying and stupid when people talk about "good faith" and "bad faith" because of my experience in a previous game, in order to discourage people from doing it.
2. I did not assert or suggest it was AI for Nash to have done so. Nor is the fact I raised it AI of me, because it's not relevant to anything in terms of who we elim. It's not a "are you scum/town?" question.

Therefore, to respond to your comment above, there is no "situation" I could possibly be hoping to manipulate into my favour. As noted in my previous response you didn't read, if it had been alignment indicative, I'd actually have been lying (about something verifiable which would be a stupid gambit at scum anyway btw) with the purpose of undermining my own vote and stance.

Your position on this complete non-issue has been so completely thoughtless and nonsensical, I can only assume you're either trying to antagonise me because you're that sort of character, or you're scum making a hopeless effort to shade me. In either case, you've just unhelpfully exemplified the same behaviours I was originally trying to stamp out.

Kind regards,

Battle Mage

[superbowl9]

^ Very comfortable saying this is town v town