Newbie 2018: Ferrets [GAME OVER]

[midwaybear]

Wait so are you just saying that the votecount is weird and that is it? I feel like you were getting at something bigger.

[clidd]

We have to talk.

sup

I have a mental vote on you and some questions.

If you asked me a question recently, I don't see it? Or are you saying you have some to ask, in which case fire away

I am preparing the questions.

[GuiltyLion]

okie then. I will take a look at her argument again? I just couldn't tell whether the push comes from scum or town, but I guess I shouldn't have openly said that to her.
@clidd all town wagons? I still don't really get it.

No. This is the most unlikely possible scenario.

Why is three wagons on three townies unlikely? I think you're wrong here, from a pure probability standpoint, any given 3 players not containing a scum is like ~40% I believe? And then add to the fact that scum are very likely not voting their partner right now

[clidd]

Do you have a statistical reference for this ?

I'm basing myself on my interpretation of the wagons.

[clidd]

It is very dystopian and impractical three wagons with the exact 2 votes in three town players.

[GuiltyLion]

Do you have a statistical reference for this ?

I'm basing myself on my interpretation of the wagons.

Yeah so there's 84 combinations of 3 objects in a set of 9.

Of those 84
- there's 7 that contain both scum + one of the random townies:
- there's 21 combinations of one of the scum + two random townies. Multiply by 2 for each scum.

That gives us 49 combos out of 84. The probability of choosing no scum is 1-p(one or both scum), so 1 - 49/84 = 41.666666%

It is very dystopian and impractical three wagons with the exact 2 votes in three town players.

it's also super early in the game. I cycled votes between mujie and pearofclubs and now I believe both of them are town. The midway wagon is the true wagon

[clidd]

I was inclined to argue that your calculation disregards contextual influences from reads, but I remembered that I cannot confirm from a mathematical point of view that my reads are correct.

[clidd]

I withdraw the claim that this scenario would be the most unlikely within a chain of other possible scenarios.

[GuiltyLion]

actually just as an aside cause it was bugging me, an even easier way to arrive at the same conclusion is just to do 7 choose 3 = 35, that's how many arrangements you can make of 3 townies. 35/84 = 41.6666

[clidd]

Indeed.

[clidd]

We have to talk.

sup

I have a mental vote on you and some questions.

If you asked me a question recently, I don't see it? Or are you saying you have some to ask, in which case fire away

I am preparing the questions.

It will be ready in the morning.

[WaltertheDunce10]

I must admit Gl's response was more tilted than I expected considering his play last game.

nobody accused me of not playing the game last game

That is true.

[WaltertheDunce10]

I have a question for everyone.
How would you read sjReaver if she had not made her claim post?

[SJReaver]

Sjreaper,
Is there something in Midway's posts that makes you think it is not genuine?

Yes.

First, he said he was voting to put pressure on me. That's an okay reason, but not the product of conviction. Then he put his possible future scumread on me in the form of an ultimatum. 'If you continue on GL, then you are scummy...'

Again, it strikes me as a push. He's fishing for a reaction to evaluate me by.

Speaking of which, how are you reading everyone so far?

[SJReaver]

I'm angry because you accused me of being quiet, and I asked why you framed my play that way, and then you pretended like you didn't.

You still have not answered why you accused me of being quiet. All of this is a remarkable dodge

I don't remember why I asked that specific question.

It and the following post was an attempt to get to know you. If anything, the one asking about you reading all of clidd's post seems more accusatory to me.

But you're reacting like I insulted your grandmother's cooking.

[Ydrasse]

gonna be real my eyes glazed over the numbers/probability stuff because i am horrible at it and also i don't think it's inherently like... useful to scumhunting in this situation? if i am wrong please tell me but my brain ain't built for that stuff.

sjreaver has a sort of like, town entitlement. "i want to eliminate this person, see if i'm right." in general it's a very confident position to play and i think that even without the claim i'd see it more likely as towny than some sort of scummy bravado that wants to be townread out of sheer conviction.

[SJReaver]

I am convinced clidd is town. If he's not town, he has strong scum-game. He strikes me as being deeply invested in turning over stones.

Null reading on Ydrasse. This makes me lean town simply because it's more likely than not.

WaltertheDunce10 and beeboy, not enough info.

midwaybear, disappointed that he hasn't read clidd's posts. Makes me think he's phoning it in, and now I wonder what else he hasn't bothered to read.

GuiltyLion, anger is an effective smokescreen. Having someone blow up at me makes me want to back away. You bringing up your real-life and acting as though I've deeply offended you seems unnecessary.

Pear and mujie both feel like townies. Mujie handled a great deal of attention early on with aplomb.

[midwaybear]

I have read clidd’s posts though. As for my vote and reason towards you, I see how it might have seemed unnecessarily showy, but I still stand by the motivations. I can see how his reaction might have been a bit too much, but then it seemed like you were going further to antagonize him.
clidd, was there anything else about the vote count you wanted to say?

[WaltertheDunce10]

prob Town
Sjreaver Seems towny but focused on scumhunting. I agree that scum would not most likely have been so bold in their first post.
clidd
GL
Nuetral
Ydrasse leans town
Mujie
Pear
Poss scum
Beeboy Need to see more and left vote with weak explanation.
Midway

[clidd]

To Lion:

Spoiler:

1- In post 37, you, like me and Ydrasse, made a visual error when referring to a post that was out of the context of post 25, which was 13 instead of 16. But now speaking, in fact, from post 16, what is your impression of the question inserted in it ? normal, strange or not very useful ?

2- Post 97, there is a conflict between you and SJ, precisely because of what SJ hinted in post 95, about your activity. Something I didn't really understand in this context was the need for you to insert a visual resource that supported your argument, considering that just citing a public number of your posts would be enough. Have there been any situations in past games where a scum player made a derogatory remark about you that bothered you ? if not, why didn't you act in a simpler way in relation to this, considering that you would, hypothetically, have the reason in this clash ?

3- In summary, what are your general reads ? (no order/readlist, just describe it in your words).

4- The tonalities in posts 132, 141, 142, 143, 184 indicate a certain trend in relation to the development that you, theoretically, would be giving to read on SJ based on the responses (which I imagine would be negative). Why didn't a vote take place on him ?

5- In your interactions with midway, you do not get to comment on my dialogue with him, in which I indicate that he was ignoring me in a scenario where he, normally, should be talking to me. Is there any value, in your opinion, for a deviation from the standard behavior that I was imagining that midway would adopt ? can he be doing the exact opposite that I imagine he would do in relation to my slot be interpreted as an AI thing ?

To Midway:

Spoiler:

GuiltyLion (2):

SJReaver, beeboy

Pearofclubs (2):

Ydrasse, GuiltyLion

SJReaver (2):

mujie, midwaybear

The above vote distributions (before Lion changed his vote) were equally distributed among the three wagons. Going from the interpretive principle that 3 wagons town in D1 are dystopian eventualities and not so common within my personal experience with past games, both newbies and non-newbies, I imagine that at least 1 of these wagons is on a scum player.

To be more specific, if we imagine that the mafia, as a rule, tends to react to the initial wagons to avoid that potential threats to the simultaneous elimination of both members are molded, especially chain eliminations (which would result in a defeat in D2), there would be a greater interest in directing attention to an alternative wagon. In this context, Regardless of the scenario of 2 scums (utopian) or 1 scum (practical) being voted or not, there is already the implication that only the existence of 3 wagons infers an unnatural distribution, in which there is a scum inside.

In particular, I have SJ as town, so Lion and Pear are my healthy voting options. If I elucidate which of the two is most likely to be town, for PoE, the other should be scum, according to my perspective on the nature of these 3 wagons.

[clidd]

I am inclined to think that Lion and Pear do not share the same alignment for VCA issues.

In parallel, I'm going to do an analysis of Pear's ISO and clarify post 57. I'm not reading Lion's emotional streak of frustration as AI, so I intend to take a look at his meta.

[clidd]

As a result of impressions, I have this configuration in mind:

[SJReaver] [mujie]

[Ydrasse]

[beeboy] [WaltertheDunce10] [midwaybear]

[GuiltyLion] [Pearofclubs]

The red session will likely change after the activities mentioned in post 220 are completed.

Legenda:

Spoiler:

Green: Town.

Yellow: Good.

Orange: Null.

Red: Closer to being scum.

[beeboy]

It's my boi midway.

[midwaybear]

clidd, what's the difference between two wagons of 3 and three wagons of 2? Would you say that there is scum as one of the two wagons in the first scenario?

[SJReaver]

I'm not reading Lion's emotional streak of frustration as AI, so I intend to take a look at his meta.

If you're doing that, check out his use of emotes.

He grabbed first post and slipped an emote in there.
No more emotes until Ydessa directly asks him if he's scum.
No more emotes until he claims he's going to read all of your posts, whether you trim them or not.

I read it as 'this is the right thing to say, but my heart isn't really in it.'