Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 1.18

Snowblaze

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(6):

HoldenGolden (511), Fredrick A Campbell (522), Menalque (532), Ydrasse (552), Almost50 (570), RCEnigma (599)

RCEnigma

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(3):

Snowblaze (415), Mohab500 (502), Eevee (547)

HoldenGolden

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(1):

Raya36 (495)

Mohab500

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(1):

Umlaut (596)

Not Voting

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(2):

Something_Smart, Chemist1422

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

[Menalque]

That's a tomorrow issue.

Correct

[Snowblaze]

I had a problem with the snow wagon but I don't remember what it was and the lack of defense is meh. There are a few people I think might have scumtold but it's mostly comparing to things I've done/said in past scum games.

That's a tomorrow issue.
VOTE: Snowblaze
L-1

Welp. Could you... not do that? I’d rather not be eliminated. I’ve probably left it far too late to do anything about it, but...

Yeah, sorry. I haven’t been contributing enough, I haven’t been my usual obvtown self, I’ve just never really had enough information to work with. And I’m not going to have time for it today, and after that there’s a deadline and no plausible counter-wagon to me.

I did try to explain myself wrt Holden’s post; if you mean “no-one else is defending me” then that’s actually a good point: wouldn’t my hypothetical scum partners be trying to keep me alive? Actually, general question @everyone on my wagon: if I’m scum, what are my partners doing?

If I have time later and no-one’s hammered I’ll see if I can manage some analysis, but I can’t promise anything.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I had a problem with the snow wagon but I don't remember what it was and the lack of defense is meh. There are a few people I think might have scumtold but it's mostly comparing to things I've done/said in past scum games.

That's a tomorrow issue.
VOTE: Snowblaze
L-1

Welp. Could you... not do that? I’d rather not be eliminated. I’ve probably left it far too late to do anything about it, but...

Yeah, sorry. I haven’t been contributing enough, I haven’t been my usual obvtown self, I’ve just never really had enough information to work with. And I’m not going to have time for it today, and after that there’s a deadline and no plausible counter-wagon to me.

I did try to explain myself wrt Holden’s post; if you mean “no-one else is defending me” then that’s actually a good point: wouldn’t my hypothetical scum partners be trying to keep me alive? Actually, general question @everyone on my wagon: if I’m scum, what are my partners doing?

If I have time later and no-one’s hammered I’ll see if I can manage some analysis, but I can’t promise anything.

Your partners are staying low to ensure that they are not suspected for protecting you.

[Snowblaze]

And then they have to confirm five townies. Sounds like a great plan.

[Ydrasse]

snowblaze: if you're town, who do you think the scum on your wagon are right now? in the absence of scumreads as of 415, does anyone now stand out to you in particular?

i know you said you don't wanna feel bad about this wagon/game in general and i get it, but it feels like you're accepting it without offering much of anything where i feel this would be the place where you'd be like... most informed/able to offer scumreads.

[Snowblaze]

Yeah. I’m trying. I was just going to point out that RCE’s vote on me is ringing all kinds of alarm bells.

“I vaguely remember not liking this wagon, and I think other people have done scummy stuff, but I’m fine with eliminating this anyway, we can worry about other stuff tomorrow”.

That just screams “scum trying to push a miselimination through while simultaneously distancing from it” to me.

Other than that, in general I feel like scum are on the latter half of my wagon rather than the early part. I’ll see if I can find what I particularly don’t like.

[Snowblaze]

Looking at it again, I’m also not really liking A50’s entrance onto my wagon. He’s basically saying “as long as I’m not townreading them I’m down for a wagon” which feels like trying to deny responsibility for the miselimination he’s part of.

Ydrasse gets slight town points because I feel like scum would be less likely to blatantly admit they’re sheeping, and also for trying to work with me instead of writing me off as scum (although, yes, scum could easily fake that.)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Mohab500

[Snowblaze]

...thanks, I guess?

[RCEnigma]

Yeah. I’m trying. I was just going to point out that RCE’s vote on me is ringing all kinds of alarm bells.

“I vaguely remember not liking this wagon, and I think other people have done scummy stuff, but I’m fine with eliminating this anyway, we can worry about other stuff tomorrow”.

That just screams “scum trying to push a miselimination through while simultaneously distancing from it” to me.

Other than that, in general I feel like scum are on the latter half of my wagon rather than the early part. I’ll see if I can find what I particularly don’t like.

It boils down to my preferred wagons not gaining any traction. There is leverage with a flip however and it's you or me, so how I view you or your alignment isn't super important.

[RCEnigma]

Looking at it again, I’m also not really liking A50’s entrance onto my wagon. He’s basically saying “as long as I’m not townreading them I’m down for a wagon” which feels like trying to deny responsibility for the miselimination he’s part of.

This was your stance on me so I don't understand why you feel that way towards A50.

[RCEnigma]

If I have time later and no-one’s hammered I’ll see if I can manage some analysis, but I can’t promise anything.

Holding you to this.
UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

So RCE is town.

[Menalque]

wouldn’t my hypothetical scum partners be trying to keep me alive? Actually, general question @everyone on my wagon: if I’m scum, what are my partners doing?

I mean, I think this is exactly what they’re doing by refusing to bus you, seeing as that’s very much a form of protection (much harder to get an all-town wagon through generally) and it’s less obviously associative than if they were posting walls on why you’re town

[Snowblaze]

Looking at it again, I’m also not really liking A50’s entrance onto my wagon. He’s basically saying “as long as I’m not townreading them I’m down for a wagon” which feels like trying to deny responsibility for the miselimination he’s part of.

This was your stance on me so I don't understand why you feel that way towards A50.

I mean, yeah. It was.

But on the other hand, a) there were a lot more people that I wasn’t prepared to vote for at that point, and b) I wasn’t putting you at E-2.

Thanks for giving me more time. I think I need to go through and properly re-evaluate everyone. I’m probably too tired to do a good job of it, but I’m forcing myself to do it anyway on the grounds that I should have done it ages ago.

@S_S: is that purely because of the unvote, or are there other reasons?

[Something_Smart]

It is purely because of the unvote.

[Snowblaze]

So. Let’s see.

Townreads and leans

Umlaut
Fredrick A Campbell
Eevee
Menalque (with a slight dose of paranoia; I’d re-evaluate day two if I thought I was going to make it there. For someone taking control of the game and decide the wagons he's not as obvtown as I'd like (I know, I know, I'm a hypocrite, but I'm not trying to decide which wagons are allowed.))
HoldenGolden
Chemist1422

Everyone else

Something_Smart: can you produce AI content, please?
Mohab500: see above. It’s kind of worrying at this point, though, and I’m not seeing anything to contradict my initial gut pings.

The four I'm not townreading who have actually done AI stuff will get seperate posts. I don't normally like to go through ISOs in as much detail as I'm going to since it makes me confbias, but I don't expect to live long enough to re-evaluate, so...

[Snowblaze]

RCEnigma

I still don't get the initial Porkens vote, but I'm not sure it's strongly AI either way.

The mechanics stuff... I don't really like making reads based on mechanical speculation, but again it seems weird from either alignment. I'm trying to think through this: scum!RCE would have presumably asked the question in the PT before making 168, otherwise he would have kept it secret in case the answer was yes. At the same time, town!RCE would have wanted to keep it a secret if he didn't already know the answer, since that post is encouraging scum to consider possibilities they might otherwise not have thought of... yeah, I don't think this is getting me any closer to a read, I'll just move on.

238 is okay, but the kind of solving that would be easy enough for scum to fake.

239 and 257 - this is the sort of thing I'd be kind of expecting from scum in the gamestate at the time.

264 - I do get the logic here, but I'm not really sure the information denied to scum outweighs the information denied to town, plus I find it very hard to play without talking about townreads.

536 - that's actually a valid explanation; personally if I'd had a thought like that and the answer was yes I'd keep my mouth shut about it and hope scum don't have weird enough logic to figure it out, but I guess it makes sense.

599 - actually not as bad as I originally thought given the context of the post above.

612 - I appreciate this, and I do feel it's slightly town-AI.

...yup, my reads are a confused mess again. What fun. At least if I'm eliminated I don't have to worry about getting them straight!

I'm getting slight pings in both directions, and I can't really work out whether the town-AI things outweigh the scum-AI things. That being said, I'm keeping my vote firmly where it is in the most-likely-vain-hope of self-preservation.

(By the way, we have plurality elimination at deadline, so you don't need to hammer me (or anyone else) just to get an elimination.)

[Something_Smart]

Producing AI content is such a drag.

(Yes I will, but it takes a while, especially when I replace in.)

[Snowblaze]

Ydrasse

182 - I guess I can sort of see where this is coming from... not sure I agree, though, and it's also kind of an overjustification (yes, I'm still a hypocrite. Deal with it.)

354 - I generally feel like town would mind being scumread more than scum (okay, okay, I got the message. When I can understand the reasons behind my being scumread as town I'm fine with it because I can just blame myself rather than needing to be angry at people for misreading me). Given my interjection in brackets, if Ydrasse thinks a similar way to me it's not as scum-AI as I originally thought.

416 - not entirely sure I like the asking Menalque what wagons are acceptable here, feels kind of "I want to get on and please people" rather than "I want to find scum".

552 - *sigh* fair enough, I suppose. I'm just not doing a good job of this game, "advancing the gamestate" is a bit beyond my capabilities unless you want to wagon me and force me to do stuff... oh, wait, you do. Never mind, then. I'll get on with it.

605 - yeah, I needed that. As I mentioned earlier, slight townpoints.

Oh, look, another clueless nullish read. My gut is telling me Ydrasse is town, though. Not sure my gut is at all reliable, but whatever.

(Am I going to get through the last two of these without falling asleep at the keyboard?)

Actually, stuff it: I'm done for today. Please don't hammer me until I can get through analysis of Raya and A50, for completeness's sake if nothing else. I'll do it at some point tomorrow morning.

[Eevee]

haven't read anything for the last couple of days but i'm liking these recent posts from snowblaze

how confident are you on RCE!town and why S+S?

what about Mohab?

~Eve

[Eevee]

VOTE: Mohab

yeah let's go here - i'll trust Almo and S+S's reads on RCE for now

Mohab is still really scummy for the fake dumbslipping and the scummy double down where he asked if there were any power roles after i thought he was sus for the earlier stuff

~Eve

[Eevee]

look at Mohab's play in partition and tell me this is someone wearing the same aligned uniform - in partition MOhab was clever and even strategically scumclaimed and got people to spew as town because of reactions - she wasn't someone who was this lost and confused

~Eve

[Something_Smart]

I don't know exactly how confident. More than I am in anyone else by far, and enough to vote probably anyone else to keep him from being killed today.

The reason is that 599 draws suspicion onto him in return for having a perfect alibi for being on the wagon. By unvoting, he's not revoking the suspicion-- it still looks like a potentially opportunistic vote-- but he is relinquishing the position on the wagon that was presumably very important to his survival as scum. To get back on the wagon he'd have to pretend to be unimpressed by Snowblaze's content and generate a new excuse, which will draw suspicion.

Also, like, he doesn't want to let up on Snowblaze as scum since he's likely on the chopping block if Snowblaze talks herself down. The unvote shows that he's actually invested in letting her give her defense, so either he's doing it as a play to look good, or he's just town. And being not the most charismatic player I would not expect him to try a reverse psychology play like that when he could go the more direct route of just remaining on and trying to get her hammered, which wouldn't have even made him look bad.