Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Deimos27]

and Aldus/DC/Wug

Not quite right cause there's one more NK first. It'd be another 1v1

[Deimos27]

I'm still waiting on any reason to scumread D&D here.
Very unfortunate that Klick vanished right after I asked them questions that are pretty important, in my view

[Dumb and Dumber]

and Aldus/DC/Wug

Not quite right cause there's one more NK first. It'd be another 1v1

You were right: if one scum in coalition is fired, it'll very likely be the town in the coalition that's killed.

-Dumbass

[Deimos27]

Oh yes that's right

[Deimos27]

If Pooky actually flips town then I think Day 3 we probably eliminate D&D. I just don't see the logic in Klick's play if he's scum.

This probably rules out D&D/Aldus?

[DonCorleone]

and Aldus/DC/Wug

Not quite right cause there's one more NK first. It'd be another 1v1

You were right: if one scum in coalition is fired, it'll very likely be the town in the coalition that's killed.

-Dumbass

This is assuming klick flips scum right? In which case I agree

If klick flips town idk where I’d expect the NK to fall (like outside if obviously the preference for scum, but I actually don’t think pooky outing as scum would be against wincon as it would give scum 2 NKs and total control over the 3p lylo)

[Deimos27]

We're talking about the hypothetical where Pooky is misexecuted and we we survive the ensuing 1v1 5p LyLo. The following situation would be a 1v1v1 3p LyLo since the NK is likely to land on the remaining on-coalition member.

[Deimos27]

I've just been explaining why I think Klick/Aldus does in fact make sense

[Deimos27]

I just want to be 100% sure about ruling out Pooky/Wug and Pooky/D&D (or at least one of them so we have force PoE win) and then I'm happy to hammer Klick

[Deimos27]

Oh yeah I am 100% sure about not!(Pooky/Wug) because of the NKA.

[Deimos27]

So if Klick scum then Aldus -> Wug for win
If Klick town then it's pretty much exactly Pooky/D&D. Neither of these players have good teammates other than each other

[DonCorleone]

So if Klick scum then Aldus -> Wug for win
If Klick town then it's pretty much exactly Pooky/D&D. Neither of these players have good teammates other than each other

Apart from you and DnD but let’s not think about that

[DonCorleone]

Honestly if it is that then I’m not even mad because I think you played the shit out of this day phase

[DonCorleone]

Also I agree that it klick!scum then the partner is aldus or wug in almost all cases

[Dumb and Dumber]

Yeah I'm basically at Klick with Wug or Aldu being the partner

- Dumber

[Deimos27]

I will hammer tonight before bed if no one convinces me otherwise

[DonCorleone]

Okay, or, and hear me out here, you could hammer now unless you think someone is likely to convince you otherwise and we can see the flip instead of having to wait for hours in anticipation

[Dumb and Dumber]

I would appreciate Klick being given a bit more time to respond to some of the recent things said before hammer

- Dumber

[DonCorleone]

That’s lowkey a slightly weird comment DnD

[Dumb and Dumber]

OK

- Dumber

[DonCorleone]

What could klick say that would change your mind on him when you’ve spent *literally the entire day* defusing pooky wagon in order to get klick to a position of viability?

[Deimos27]

Let's look at the Pooky teammates

once

more to play it safe.

Spoiler: Assume Pooky/Aldus

- Pooky was getting the hell out of himself bussed D1
- When given the opportunity to hammer Koba, Aldus prefers to

bus

- Pooky wasn't on that wagon either
- Aldus shows up at eod just to make it clear how badly he wants to bus
- Pooky/Aldus go into night phase: "who do we NK? Let's go for Chemist. That way when Pooky dies tomorrow to Aldus bus, they have bad PoE for off-wagon. They will execute Wug, and then in LyLo they will execute... hopefully not Aldus"

Conclusion: If this is the team, we GG go next, they are masters of distancing

Spoiler: Assume Pooky/DC

- DC's obvtownness is all an elaborate ruse
- DC's trying to fight onto wagon before coalition failure was all an elaborate ruse
- DC pushes Koba hard and then unvotes after replacement cause nvm, he gotta busssss
- DC busses Pooky to L-1, keeps him there for a while
- Pooky decides he wants to live, DC acquiesces and manages to divert onto Clover
- "Who do we kill tonight? Let's go Chemist so they have bad PoE on DC after DC busses Pooky."
- Honestly they could've just NK'd Klick and tried to save Pooky one more day if this is the team — DC was not committed to bussing, unlike Aldus from D1
- DC busses Pooky
- D&D apparates, wants to execute Klick
- DC capitalizes

Conclusion: DC is obvtown. And if he's scum, he's a bloody legend if this is the team. The absolute balls on the man to unvote Koba and pivot to his teammate when he was in the perfect situation to continue tunneling.

Spoiler: Assume Pooky/Wug

- Coordinated counterwagon on Clover
- Pooky is successfully saved
- So far so good
- The team goes into night phase: "Who do we kill tonight? If Pooky dies tomorrow, we want the kill to be on someone on-wagon to limit their PoE on Wug. But if Pooky dies, it's very likely Wug gets executed next, so we really gotta keep Pooky alive. To do this we will kill Chemist, because he was never gonna be the execute tomorrow(?) and it will help us not execute Pooky(???), even though it perfectly telegraphs our expectation that he will in fact die(?????) It doesn't frame anyone and we won't use it to push a narrative"
- Wug dilly-dallies
- Starts to look like Pooky might not be the execute
- Wug can pivot to Klick but thinks it would look bad on herself and Pooky
- Wug could continue dilly-dallying
- No! She will wifom bus Pooky to put him back in the lead

Conclusion: This is a legendary "let's go for random NK to confuse them" strat if it's the case. Wug is on point with the WIFOM. I would put very very few eggs in this basket.

Spoiler: Assume Pooky/Deimos

- Uh...
- I guess we'd be in pretty good shape here?
- I did open by voting him D2
- And I left the door wide open for DC to hammer him yesterday.
- I could've waited out the timer and no exec'd.
- I'm town.

Spoiler: Assume Pooky/Klick

- Instead of having Pooky hammer Koba, Klick decides to bus Pooky into the ground. On D1. Ballsy.
- Chemist NK to further frame Pooky and protect Klick via WIFOM.
- Now they be bussing each other again. Not even an attempt to get D&D out today. Again, ballsy.

Conclusion: If this is the case, Klick is flipping red here anyway so we can just execute her. You can give some brief thought to this possibility in a LyLo if Pooky is still alive, but really both Aldus and Wug have much better equity. I'm ok losing to this scumteam.

Spoiler: All of the above leaves Pooky/D&D

I'd still argue that the combination of NK'ing Chemist, and D&D being the scumbuddy, implies a bussing strategy today since it locks in scum!Pooky narrative and sets up D&D being townread along with the apparent NK PoE manipulation WIFOM.

Yet that isn't the play D&D has gone for. In fact, the pair would be in really bad shape right now, since we have a guaranteed D3 scum exec and then the other is on the chopping block.

Reassess this team after Klick flip. It's probably the right solve if she flips green, but it's still a weird one. There might be an oddball D&D/DC or smth in there.

[Deimos27]

What could klick say that would change your mind on him when you’ve spent *literally the entire day* defusing pooky wagon in order to get klick to a position of viability?

I can answer this for myself: they could sell a team with scum!D&D. What value D&D is hoping for is more mysterious and I think you are rightfully concerned.

[Dumb and Dumber]

Mostly just in case we happen to live in the universe where we're wrong I'd like to hear his final thoughts for later days. That's pretty much it.

- Dumber

[Klick]

I don't see anything I say changing your mind, and you already have what I think is the correct solve if I go down

Really not in the right headspace to do a repeat of yesterday where I keep pushing and pushing for something I think is obvious with no results.