Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[Something_Smart]

I'm waiting until it's been decided if there will be a third person and if so, who they will be.

It's you.

You and I are the first two.

[NorwegianboyEE]

NK15 is also shipping wheat.

[Something_Smart]

But not with Icon's blessing.

[Radical Rat]

Don't need Icon's blessing. The only reason it's "picking" the inspections is so the TD doesn't get hit by one. That's already settled, so no need for you to stall.

[Something_Smart]

Don't need Icon's blessing.

...But I want it?

[Not Known 15]

Don't need Icon's blessing.

...But I want it?

scum. Doesnt want to get a second guiltea and tries to escape it.

[Umlaut]

Don't need Icon's blessing.

...But I want it?

scum. Doesnt want to get a second guiltea and tries to escape it.

...if S_S is scum why would he want you, who are town, to be off the wheat shipment, narrowing the scum pool further? How does this escape anything from his perspective?

[username]

inspect: wheat

[Titus]

Scum do not benefit more than us.

Right now, assuming random executions and random guessing, we have a 21% chance of executing two scum in five tries, and scum have an 8% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 20%.
If we clear 5 townies, we would then have a 42% chance of executing two scum in five tries, while scum would have a 13% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 37%.

(I could calculate the numbers for other sizes but the point is the same.)

if everyone agrees that it's mathematically beneficial to include a third today, i won't oppose it

I think we should add a third name, even if it's not Umlaut. NK15 has volunteered to be the third name. EE, NK15, S_S.

That's my understanding anyway.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm swayed by the 3 pool > 2 pool argument from a math perspective and now that NK15 has openly claimed NotTD then we may as well throw him in the pool. Umlaut's 1856 again strikes me as someone who is more concerned with scoring points over logical/mechanics arguments instead of actually evaluating alignments, he's right about the flaws in NK15's reasoning but he's also at the same time ignoring the fact that there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.4

notscience [6] - Menalque, username, Titus, Moment, Datisi, GuiltyLion
Moment [3] - maxwell, Alisae, Not Known 15
Datisi [2] - NorwegianboyEE, notscience
Not Known 15 [1] - Something_Smart

Not Voting [4]

- Hel, Iconeum, Radical Rat, Umlaut

With 16 alive it takes 9 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2020-07-19 16:35:31)

I am shipping...

Linen

[13] - Titus, Alisae, username, Moment, GuiltyLion, Something_Smart, Datisi, , maxwell, Menalque, Iconeum, Radical Rat, notscience, Umlaut

Copper

[0] -

Wheat

[3] - NorwegianboyEE, Hel, Not Known 15

Let's Inspect...

Linen

[0] -

Copper

[0] -

Wheat

[10] - NorwegianboyEE, GuiltyLion, maxwell, Datisi, Umlaut, Titus, Iconeum, Radical Rat, username, Not Known 15

[GuiltyLion]

@Fakegod

- I think NK15 shipped wheat in this post

Ship:Wheat

Inspect:Wheat

It is time for Something Smart to come over and join Wheat(Or get lynched)

[Umlaut]

I'm swayed by the 3 pool > 2 pool argument from a math perspective and now that NK15 has openly claimed NotTD then we may as well throw him in the pool. Umlaut's 1856 again strikes me as someone who is more concerned with scoring points over logical/mechanics arguments instead of actually evaluating alignments, he's right about the flaws in NK15's reasoning but he's also at the same time ignoring the fact that there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with

Despite the tone, that was an actual question I was asking NK15 and was (and am) hoping for an answer to. Maybe that answer is just "derp, I wasn't thinking" but maybe there is some actual reasoning there and I was hoping to see what it was.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't wanna poison the well for your question by pressing you further on that front but I may be interested in revisiting this line of conversation if/when NK15 answers.

[Titus]

Alisae, talk to me. What are your thoughts here? Why are you still voting moment?

[Iconeum]

i don't remember asking for NK being inspected

so eh

yeah we're not inspecting NK

[Iconeum]

there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with

so what's the argument about putting him the pool again? because the main thing is catching a guilTea, not clearing town let alone paranoia

[Iconeum]

town shouldn't be volunteering to be in the pool imo

it decreases the chance of catching scum

right NK?

[GuiltyLion]

It's mostly that a 3 person pool is no worse than a 2 person pool from the perspective of getting a guilty, bc we can use our remaining investigations and executions in such a way that we guarantee 2 scum eliminated by EOD5.

The downside is we might clear more townies as not!TD with an inno result, but if someone's already spewed themselves not-TD then this downside is negated.

[Iconeum]

eh you know what fuck it

i have no clue what this game is anymore

[Iconeum]

NK will be inspected

i've fucking warned you guys about taking my day 1 picks into account
but if NK is insisting about being inspected himself he can fucking have it

[Iconeum]

It's mostly that a 3 person pool is no worse than a 2 person pool from the perspective of getting a guilty, bc we can use our remaining investigations and executions in such a way that we guarantee 2 scum eliminated by EOD5.

The downside is we might clear more townies as not!TD with an inno result, but if someone's already spewed themselves not-TD then this downside is negated.

not arguing about 3 or 2, SS was pretty convincing about that yesterday

it's about who would be number 3

[username]

How the fuck did we catch scum out of three people on night one and we still clearly have no idea what the fuck we're doing

[Iconeum]

How the fuck did we catch scum out of three people on night one and we still clearly have no idea what the fuck we're doing

we know what we are doing

we are inspecting someone everyone thinks is town, but did a scummy thing so hE MusT bE inSpeCteD

[Iconeum]

everyone agrees we want to hit scum with the next 3, so everyone agrees that NK should be included despite most people believing NK is probably town anyway

makes perfect sense right?

not to mention NK is asking for this himself which is?????????????????????

but im fucking done fighting this, he can be inspected if that is his grand desire