Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[Radical Rat]

If it's any consolation, I WAS leaning SS after he was stalling getting onto the Wheat boat so much.

[Datisi]

ok, off of memory, i think i'm around here



(author's note: conftowns {s_s, norwee, ico, radical} not depicted, also pls forgive if your avatar is overlayed by someone else's, i tried)

general notes being:
- along with my earlier townread, i don't think mena starts bussing day 1 (and in a setup like this)

- while i don't think guiltylion has

as

obvtowned as other times, i think he's still pretty firmly town

- i like titus's posts and content, plus (from what i remember from that shitfest of a game) she feels different than the flying scumsman

- i don't think moment is scum here? like, seeing both mena and guiltylion (who are more or less universally townread) saying we should be investigating in datisi/moment, and in response to that writing 1983? when objectively i'm in a worse position than he is (and with norwee and radical now being conftown, both of whom were suspecting me), i'd sooner expect scum!moment to be pushing for my solo inspection than writing a case like that

(unless your argument is that the team is exactly datisi/moment, which... it's not)

- username

probably

deserves more credit than i'm giving him, but i have a terrible habit of constantly reading "angry, aggressive, screaming" people as town (and losing games when scum does that), so i don't think i can put him closer to bottom right now

- hel has fallen off my radar yesterday, and lowkey the only thing i remember from them was that suspicion towards guiltylion which i thought was kinda odd/misplaced?

- max/umlaut need a second look, i vaguely remember liking some of max's posts (and remember nothing from umalut) but reading isos is difficult zzz

- in a vacuum, nk15 yesterday was heavily reminding me of a game where i was scum, did some weird shit, and coasted off of it (coupled with ico defending him in almost the same way town!him was defending me then), but... in the grand scheme of things, i don't even know what to think here.

~

(Ali, hel)? Worth checking in (datisi, moment) again too probably because a false negative would fuck us hard here

do you think there's scum in {datisi, moment}?

~

Datisi(lurks)

~

and i townread you [titus] so wynaut?

weren't you scumreading titus yesterday?

~

I realize you might be right but i’m paranoid.

has norwee come around? :3

[Alisae]

i don't remember any of my reads in this game tbh

[Datisi]

ok alisae

[Alisae]

ok datisi

[Datisi]

ok VOTE: alisae

[Menalque]

do you think there's scum in {datisi, moment}?

No, I think it’s highly unlikely, but I don’t want to keep investigating in the unknown pool unless we really need to because I’m worried about the potential for TD being outed and (you, moment, nk15) are all people who I think are town but who are also confirmed not TD

So basically while I highly doubt tea will turn up in that pool, I’d still like to check it just as insurance against being wrong and because I see no downside really

[Menalque]

Like, there’s 15 people left in the game

S_S, norwee, nk15, icon are cleared = 11

2 scum off that = 9

You, moment, nk15 off that = 6 people that scum are currently down to for picking the TD including myself

That means scum have a rand chance of 16.6667% to hit TD within that pool of us
One more invest increases their odds by 3.3334% and is maybe acceptable
Investigating 2 names increases their odds by nearly 10%, and investigating 3 would be nearly game throwing imo

So I’d rather do this:

We do the thing of choosing 2 names for icon to choose between for guillotining today. We double check the pool of people who are currently being treated as fairly cleared (but leave it up to icon to make the final call on the pool for obvious reasons). If that does come up clear as I suspect, we repeat the thing of choosing two people we think are scummy within the pool and then we let icon choose inside again. If we still haven’t hit scum, we consider a last ditch invest on the 1-2 scummiest people within the 7 unconfirmed names and hope like hell that we hit scum on it, and that we then choose the right person of the two.

[Hel]

First

VOTE: Umlaut

[Hel]

Alisae could be scum as well for pushing Moment and calling notscience town because of that loose maxwell(?) reasoning, where they looked at the posts reacting to Ico's Tea choice.

[Hel]

The GuiltyLion thing is a legit thing. He said it himself. As scum, his posts will be really towny but they'll just be far less frequent.

[Datisi]

i think there's a mistake in your math - if there's scum in {datisi, moment, nk15}, then scum has lower chances of lolguessing correctly (though i haven't worked out exactly how lower that chance is, and i'm ehh?? on how likely it is)

an argument would be that, while we lose if scum snipes the daughter, we *also* lose if we don't execute another scum (yes i know we still have 3 executes yadda yadda lemme be paranoid)

depending on how well scum is doing, hitting around in the pool of "people that are very likely town but hey confirmed not daughter" we're likely losing time. of course i don't think i know how to calculate this without knowing who the scum is, so kekw

i'll think about it more later on

pedit: this was @mena

hel, what's your thoughts on umlaut? and where did guiltylion say that?

[Hel]

Ship: Wheat

I told you Norwee was town if notscience-scum. Should've went with Umlaut/GuiltyLion as the inspect. I forgive you all though, but only as long as you let me ship wheat today.

[Menalque]

i think there's a mistake in your math - if there's scum in {datisi, moment, nk15}, then scum has lower chances of lolguessing correctly (though i haven't worked out exactly how lower that chance is, and i'm ehh?? on how likely it is)

an argument would be that, while we lose if scum snipes the daughter, we *also* lose if we don't execute another scum (yes i know we still have 3 executes yadda yadda lemme be paranoid)

Right, true, but if I’m right that that pool is all town then the rest of my math checks out and it means checking outside that pool raises the odds of hitting TD much faster

If we check inside and we do hit tea then great, we’ve got enough scum to end the game and scum have the slimmest possible chance of finding the TD

[Hel]

hel, what's your thoughts on umlaut? and where did guiltylion say that?

I metaed him and somewhere in the Philosophers normal game.

Umlaut feels really off tonally and unnatural compared to his cheery town weedle/caterpie self. I'll post reasons and quotes when I'm at a portable computer maybe.

[Hel]

The next god damn time I tell y'all someone tripped my scum tell I hope you'll Fucking listen instead of pussyfooting around


Don't ever stand between Kuribo and his prey


Hey notsci, have fun in the dead thread, and I'll make sure your head goes somewhere nice in my trophy room of fallen scum

I feel very dumb, but I'm in awe.

This is some really weird buddying.

I still sincerely doubt notscience knew username was kuribo before he claimed kuribo.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m not 100% sold on trusting Hel, but i’d definitely trust them over Umlat. So good wagon, let’s keep this momentum kids.
Also i’m going to be obvscumming even harder now that i’m confirmed, hope that’s fine with y’all.

[Hel]

[NorwegianboyEE]

What did you try to post?

[Titus]

Yes, but i’ve gotten experience in cross-bussing nomination tactics. In a game called nomination mafia my team nominated all three of us on D1. And most of the players stood silent and didn’t do much to make it convincing.
I realize you might be right but i’m paranoid.

Wasn't I in that game as scum with you?

Titus, give me some of that sweet VCA.
Where do you think scum would be based on that vote spread?

Asking for my VCA is fair. That particular wagon though tells us next to nothing because conftown decided the lynch, so both sides jump on. It's akin to a cop guilty. VCA would only be valid until the point where Ico decided the lynch. VCA requires conflict between what town and scum want and can do.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Yes you were in that game Titus.

[Titus]

My preferred investigation is the same as it was yesterday. Moment/Datisi/NK15.

All three are known to not be TD, and I still REALLY think NK15 needs to be checked especially, but clearing out Moment/Datisi is also a very good thing to do.


As for execution....... I don't know yet. I was expecting at least one of Norwee or SS to be scum at the end of the day there.

I agree with checking NK15. I disagree with Datisi/Moment based on what's been said before. Scum could easily cross bus there.

[Titus]

Yes you were in that game Titus.

A major difference in that game was that scum, not town, determined the lynch/investigation pool. Here Ico dictated the pool. The rolling over and playing dead makes much less sense if Datisi and Moment were scum due to town's investment.

Now off to eyeball VCA.

[Titus]

ok, off of memory, i think i'm around here



(author's note: conftowns {s_s, norwee, ico, radical} not depicted, also pls forgive if your avatar is overlayed by someone else's, i tried)

general notes being:
- along with my earlier townread, i don't think mena starts bussing day 1 (and in a setup like this)

- while i don't think guiltylion has

as

obvtowned as other times, i think he's still pretty firmly town

- i like titus's posts and content, plus (from what i remember from that shitfest of a game) she feels different than the flying scumsman

- i don't think moment is scum here? like, seeing both mena and guiltylion (who are more or less universally townread) saying we should be investigating in datisi/moment, and in response to that writing 1983? when objectively i'm in a worse position than he is (and with norwee and radical now being conftown, both of whom were suspecting me), i'd sooner expect scum!moment to be pushing for my solo inspection than writing a case like that

(unless your argument is that the team is exactly datisi/moment, which... it's not)

- username

probably

deserves more credit than i'm giving him, but i have a terrible habit of constantly reading "angry, aggressive, screaming" people as town (and losing games when scum does that), so i don't think i can put him closer to bottom right now

- hel has fallen off my radar yesterday, and lowkey the only thing i remember from them was that suspicion towards guiltylion which i thought was kinda odd/misplaced?

- max/umlaut need a second look, i vaguely remember liking some of max's posts (and remember nothing from umalut) but reading isos is difficult zzz

- in a vacuum, nk15 yesterday was heavily reminding me of a game where i was scum, did some weird shit, and coasted off of it (coupled with ico defending him in almost the same way town!him was defending me then), but... in the grand scheme of things, i don't even know what to think here.

~

(Ali, hel)? Worth checking in (datisi, moment) again too probably because a false negative would fuck us hard here

do you think there's scum in {datisi, moment}?

~

Datisi(lurks)

~

and i townread you [titus] so wynaut?

weren't you scumreading titus yesterday?

~

I realize you might be right but i’m paranoid.

has norwee come around? :3

How the hell are me and GuiltyLion higher than username?

[NorwegianboyEE]

OUCH. Stop quoting wallposts.