Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[DonCorleone]

Also, pagetop is mine muahahaha

[Dumb and Dumber]

Where has dumber gone?

I think they'll be back tomorrow. Unfortunately for both of us, I'm all you have for now

-Dumbass

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Where has dumber gone?

But also, sure — pooky, why don’t you elaborate on 1960 like DnD said?

at the time I was thinking about who would make sense as a partner for Klick-scum, I was very sure I was going to be lynched since Klick and Deimos had already voted me. Wug/DonC had signalled intent to vote me, and Aldus hadn't posted yet but he'd been very gungho on voting me - making it 5 players who wanted me dead at that point.

Given the town would be in LYLO on D3 after I flip town, I was thinking about who would be the most likely partner for Klick-scum because town can't afford to miss.

My train of thought was that lynching Clover instead of Pooky on D1 was VERY good for Klick-scum because it made him look better since he had defended the town-flip D1 and it sets up Pooky for being lynched on D2 with universal suspicion - making it not as bad of a lynch for Klick's rep.

If instead Pooky had been lynched on D1 - Klick would look very bad on D2 since he had led the lynch of a townie and would immediately come under fire on D2 - he could immediately get lynched there on D2 - so Klick's partner would be actively diverting the wagon from Pooky to Clover for this reason - I used this to think about who was doing the wagon diversion on D1 and the person most responsible for changing the wagon from Pooky to Clover on D1 was DonC.

From that strategic lens - DonC's interactions with Klick at the end of D1 serves multiple purposes if they are scum together:

1) Creates massive distance by having a public fight over real stakes
2) Diverts the leading wagon to create a Mislynch candidate D2
3) Protects Klick by making him not responsible for a Mislynch on D1
4) Generates towncred for Klick by having him defend a conf-townie Clover on D1
5) Separates the scum votes D1.

Think about how easy the game would be to win for Klick/DonC on D2 if they are scum together , they just push Pooky off the ledge with most of the town ready to lynch Pooky- then in LYLO they have huge amounts of distancing and history that makes it nearly impossible to pick them up as the scumpair for the town - even if the town lynchs Klick at this point DonC has the distancing on D1.

Anyway this theory died as soon as DonC was willing to lynch Klick on D2.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How does derailing a misfiring onto Klick put us in a strong position coming into today? If anything, we could've put up a far weaker show about derailing the wagon than we did, and it would have resulted in your flip.

The stronger your defense of me on D2 is, the stronger your position in the 1v1 against Klick-town is when I flip town and we go to LyLo on D3.

I think you went all out on the defense of me because you needed to make it convincing in order to win vs Klick in the 1v1. You also needed it to look genuine and full-effort to not look phony because if it looks phony its a huge mark against you - you have to make us think you are actually very defensive of me.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Yes, we did feel regret, but saying that should lead to us coming out "guns blazing" is wrong. If anything, if we were planning to set up a Pooky 1v1 for today... isn't it much more likely that we'd have some ammo to attack you with entering today?

I already explain in my post why you didn't come out guns blazing for me today. If you were town you would've definitely come out eager to scrap and brawl but instead it's been quite dull. You don't want to hit me too hard and make me look good tomorrow after you flip scum today.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I just had an epiphany while eating dinner - I know why DnD said his own scumbuddy Aldus is my scumbuddy-

DnD needs to create a world in which I have a plausible scumpartner other than him because if he can't convince the town that such a team exists - he's the lynch today.

Originally I thought he just pulled up Deimos analysis in 2431 and just went with the simplest one to explain but it's actually more subtle than that:


He did it because if he targets a townie as my scumbuddy - that's one less townie vote that will be willing to peel off - he needs one of the 2 remaining townies to make a mistake and he doesn't want to alienate them by calling them scum - that'd be reducing the people he can sell this to by half.

Which imo confirms Aldus as his scum-buddy.

[Wug]

And I don't want to see just "oh oops we were wrong but now we know because of the setup that the other is scum." If you have confirmation that another player is scum you should be able to reread their posts and figure out the scum angle.

why
just because someone is mechanically scum doesn't make their posts different from what they were

[Wug]

if team is pooky/d&d then them having to argue right now is really funny and they should continue

[Wug]

does n1 on-coalition kill make sense if both maf are in the coalition?

[Dumb and Dumber]

Apologies for my absence
I shall catch up tomorrow

- Dumber

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How does derailing a misfiring onto Klick put us in a strong position coming into today? If anything, we could've put up a far weaker show about derailing the wagon than we did, and it would have resulted in your flip... and if you're town that leaves us in a helluva strong position today.

I don't think you intended to actually derail the wagon - you wanted to put up a strong defense of Pooky-Town so that you'd have something to use against Klick - however you pushed a little too hard and ending up completely trainwrecking the wagon - at that point you couldn't turn back so you decided the heck with it I can always just flip this back on Pooky on D3 when Klick flips town - that'd be 2 MLs Pooky is on and he'd be a sitting duck for me to push out in LYLO.

The key is that your defense of me was not based on me being scum/town - it was based on how you wanted to position your own role on D3 after either Klick or Pooky town was lynched on D2 - you knew that the wagon was either going to be Klick or Pooky - you didn't really care which of us died, you just wanted to make sure you'd have the advantage over the survivor in D3 LyLo.

[Alduskkel]

And I don't want to see just "oh oops we were wrong but now we know because of the setup that the other is scum." If you have confirmation that another player is scum you should be able to reread their posts and figure out the scum angle.

why
just because someone is mechanically scum doesn't make their posts different from what they were

Yeah but if they had their town tinted glasses on before then now's the opportunity to take them off and reanalyze.

if team is pooky/d&d then them having to argue right now is really funny and they should continue

Lol, agreed, this was also part of my motivation. More seriously, it's also our best way of checking if they are actually scum partners.

does n1 on-coalition kill make sense if both maf are in the coalition?

It's a pretty bold play, but if they expected Pooky to get eliminated Day 2 then it sort of makes sense to sell the idea of 1 off, 1 on.

I think it's also very notable that both Pooky and D&D are pushing me as the other's partner.

[Dumb and Dumber]

I don't think you intended to actually derail the wagon - you wanted to put up a strong defense of Pooky-Town so that you'd have something to use against Klick - however you pushed a little too hard and ending up completely trainwrecking the wagon - at that point you couldn't turn back so you decided the heck with it I can always just flip this back on Pooky on D3 when Klick flips town - that'd be 2 MLs Pooky is on and he'd be a sitting duck for me to push out in LYLO.

The key is that your defense of me was not based on me being scum/town - it was based on how you wanted to position your own role on D3 after either Klick or Pooky town was lynched on D2 - you knew that the wagon was either going to be Klick or Pooky - you didn't really care which of us died, you just wanted to make sure you'd have the advantage over the survivor in D3 LyLo.

So we didn't know how to temper our derailment, and instead over-committed to it with continuous personal engagement instead of just putting up a defense and leaving it at that? This is silly. Go ahead and identify the point at which we "realized" there's no turning back, go on.

Our defense of you was exactly based on you being scum/town wrt Klick. We townread you, and found the case on you pretty unconvincing, while we both scumread Klick's actions. Derailing momentum on a sure firing to the other townread slot is a poor method of ensuring an advantage in LyLo.

@Aldu:
What's your individual read of DonCorleone?

-Dumbass

[Alduskkel]

I'm a bit torn about DC. He's flip flopped a lot on Pooky, but I think during the key moments he's been on Pooky's side more than not (end of Days 1 and 2, in particular). I also disliked his interaction with Koba, as I've said before.

On the other hand, Klick and Deimos both called DC "obvtown" and made decent points in his favor, so I'm less confident in scumreading DC than I am with Pooky (especially since a lot of my suspicion of DC hinges on Pooky flipping scum).

TBH I've kinda been putting off coming to a conclusion on him until Day 4, assuming I live that long.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

So we didn't know how to temper our derailment, and instead over-committed to it with continuous personal engagement instead of just putting up a defense and leaving it at that? This is silly. Go ahead and identify the point at which we "realized" there's no turning back, go on.

Of course you committed to the defense of me whole-heartedly - the more strongly you defend me - the better you look on D3 when I flip town on D2 lynch - setting you up for the 1v1 with Klick perfectly. If you had put forth just a half-hearted defense of me, it would've looked like scum having info and posturing for D3 and you would've had a much arder time vs Klick on D3 1v1 LyLo.

You probably didn't expect to actually succeed in derailing the wagon on D2 with 5 people either voting or stating they planned to vote me but when it succeeded you didn't really feel the need to flip the wagon back on me as I'd be easy lynch bait on D3 since most people already suspected me.

There is no specific "point" in which you realized anything or even considered turning back - you were dedicated to the role you played and you had all of us fooled.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Our defense of you was exactly based on you being scum/town wrt Klick. We townread you, and found the case on you pretty unconvincing

How do you townread me if you didn't even read large parts of Day 1?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Derailing momentum on a sure firing to the other townread slot is a poor method of ensuring an advantage in LyLo.

It's win-win for you - either you fail to stop the Pooky-TownFlip and end up looking great on D3 for defending Pooks while Klick got him evicted - setting you up perfectly for the 1v1 vs Klick

or

You get rid of Klick and end up with Pooky - somebody the entire town already suspects and someone who has just gotten Klick-town evicted as your 1v1 opponent.

In both scenarios you are pretty well off in your 1v1 LYLO.

[Dumb and Dumber]

I have returned, and I majorly fucked up yesterday.
From my pov pooky is confscum (and we shoulda listened to you Klick, sorry)

My best guess for a partner is wug.

I am now catching up

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I’m just curious why did you want to 1v1 me today instead of Klick? who are you really? Somebody I know?

From your pov, what do you think the answer is?
And why do you think deimos died?

(Also as far as I'm aware, neither of us played with you before)

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

It's guaranteed from our perspective that Pooky is scum

Yes, but it isn’t from mine and so I want you to come up with a compelling case for why pooky is scum and not you

heya DC, I wanna talk with you when you're around.

I haven't had time to reread or spend time on this game till just now, but to summarize:

- He's now been the counterwagon to town wagons twice (and is now in another 1v1 with a townie)
- Up until our hydra came in and started pushing klick yesterday, he was very defeated and acted like he expected to be voted out, but he started buddying up to us once we started defending him

I need to do a more comprehensive reeread of his iso tho
(And in general he has a much bigger scumrange than I thought)

I need to reread how he ended up in the coalition in the first place. Is he the person taht Koba insisted on getting in?

And I don't think Aldu is the partner since he's been trying to get Pooky voted out since forever. And Wug, way back on day1, when Pooky was suddenly in the hot seat, started to try to divert things off of Pooky and onto Klick.

[Dumb and Dumber]

The solve is almost definitely D&D/Pooky if [Klick] is wrong, but you lot just gotta work off the foundations we've set today to check the plausible associations of each.

deimos tryharded a lot and this was his result
might just want to sheep it

I think we were framed with that kill
(And I'd also have to say that as either alignment, so eh take that with a grain of salt)

But really tho that team makes no sense and I can go through that again if necessary

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I have some issues with that analysis.
1. I was pushing Pooky way earlier than Wug. What's my scum motivation for that?
2. If Wug is Pooky's partner, then Wug's main alternative to bussing is to try and save Pooky. But that probably leaves her in an even worse spot than if she buses. So I would argue that scum-Wug would be picking between two bad options and would choose the least bad option -- bussing.

It's OK, I have some issues with that analysis too, mostly because you've been pushing him for like forever and your push on him doesn't feel like a bus to me

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Scenario 1: DnD is scum - he did it in order to set up an easier 1v1 later because he felt Klick is a harder 1v1 target than Pooky because most of the game at that point had expressed overwhelming suspicion of Pooky and wanted to lynch Pooky. If he fails to derail the wagon - it sets up the 1v1 with Klick on better footing - since Pooky flips town and he goes into D3 with a 1v1 with Klick where he has defended Pooky-town whereas Klick had just pushed a mislynch on Pooky - this is very good for DnD.

Uhhhhh this could have gone sooooooo badly for scum!us, and backfired awfully. It almost did, we were initially scum-read for doing so, and were in the hot seat for a bit there. We coudl have just ... avoided all of that by saying 'oh yeah pooky is obvscum lol' and vote you.

Like we could have taken the easy route so so so easily. Like I don't get why we'd go out of the way to make our position in the game more precarious when we could have just taken the easy mislynch and then had the 1v1 today.

We're obviously, undoubtedly, in a worse position right now, upon the mislynch, than we would have been if we would had just ridden the mislynch to the 1b1 today. Like we (unfortunately) burned all towncred yesterday ... for what exactly? It didn't make today any easier

It's really a no-lose scenario for DnD - either he succeeds in derailing the wagon on Pooky and sets up a 1v1 with Pooky that he has tremendous upside advantages in that many people already suspect Pooky (Aldus, Wug, DonC)

Again, this is failing to take into account the consequences/reevaluations/gamestate post klick!townflip. Our credit is shot. You're describing this to me significantly easier than it actually is, and the scum motivation you're attributing to us evaporates in that context

Like this is a awful uphill battle that could have been avoided by taking the easy mislynch yesterday.

Like, if scum!us went town!pooky first: easy mislynch yesterday on pooky, one hard-ish mislynch today on klick
vs: if scum!us went town!klick first: redivert everyone off of the easy mislynch, burn all our cred upon the townflip, and look like idiots today when we're forced to go back to the position we hsould have taken yesterday. Just, like, why?

Now how does DnD-town come to the conclusion that Pooky is town and Klick is scum if he didn't even re-read Day 1? It seems pretty irresponsible for someone to barge into town and conclude that everyone else's opinion is wrong without actually doing the work to figure out if they have anything.

You're acting like we read nothing and had no context for the game, and just barged in here with a preconceived narrative that we were going to push regardless, which isn't true.

We both skimmed bits and parts of teh game upon repping in, and my other head actually read through large portions of day1. We had *some* of the context, albeit all of it, and what we had seen from that point seemed to point to scum!klick

It's fairly obvious that DnD did not really care whether Pooky is town or Klick is scum or vice versa - if he did he would've actually done some re-reading before derailing the wagon - instead what was important to him was the game-state AFTER Pooky/Klick being lynched - because both players are town - he didn't care which townie died - he only cared about how to shape the D3 LyLo into something he's almost certain to win.

Again, you're misrepping what day3 lylo looks like from scum!us's pov upon fucking up the gamestate yesterday.

What does DnD do instead? Barely a whimper. Comes out and doesn't even have a case on me at all, two heads they had all night to come up with something and they got nada in 4 days - does that seem like someone who went to bed last night angry that they messed up big time on D2?

Come on man, a few things:

- I was busy IRL and wasn't around literally until now, so assigning motivations or emotions to me when I clearly have not been here is just a bit gross
- this doesn't match the narrative you're pushing in the top of this post - if our evil!plan is to come in and push you today after forcing through the mislynch on town!klick, we should have been better prepared, no? We had all of day2 and the night to plan this out. Our whole plan for the game was contingent on this given our actions yesterday. And despite that, we just - don't act upon it today? How does that make sense as a scum action here given teh narrative you're pushing today?

It's actually a very clever move by him - the harder he fights me today - the more innocent I look tomorrow when he flips scum today if I get him lynched - so he wants to keep this fight at a low-energy level so I look MORE suspicious tomorrow. He needs to create a world where he and I are scum together because then it doesn't matter if he loses the 1v1 to me - his teammate will still lynch me tomorrow and he'll win anyway.

I dont' get it. THis doesn't make much sense either

[Dumb and Dumber]

Whoops

- Dumber

(Aside, you have a really good scumgame)

[Dumb and Dumber]

Where has dumber gone?

But also, sure — pooky, why don’t you elaborate on 1960 like DnD said?

I was busy this weekend but I haf returned

- Dumber