Newbie 2019 | Game Over!

[GeorgeBailey]

SJReaver has been killed last night! She was a:

Spoiler:

Town Mason

Day 2 Starts!

Votecount 2.1

Not Voting (7): shellyc(0), MiniMegabyte(0), ItalianoVD(0), Redados(0), GeniusGamer(0), Porkens(0), T-Bone(0)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-08-03 18:27:08)

FLAVOR

[Redados]

WIFOM

Spoiler: 0 - An example

If you are unfamiliar with WIFOM or meta levels, which I doubt many here are, this is for you!

To illustrate a WIFOM scenario, here is an example using the common scenario of a scum player providing a read on a fellow scum member - each number represents a meta level a person can operate on.

• lvl 0 - Town read your partner in an attempt to keep them alive
  lvl 1 - Scum read your partner, anticipating that others will think you were operating from level 0. Thus, if you flip scum, your buddy will be cleared, as scum wants to townread their partner on the 0th level meta.
  lvl 2 - Town read your partner, anticipating that people would think you would want to distance from your partner by scum reading them using level 1 logic.
  lvl 3 - Scum read your partner, anticipating people thinking you are operating from level 2

And so on....

You can see that in this example, all even (or odd) meta levels lead to the same outcomes - this happens with binary scenarios (i.e. the wine can be placed in front of either you or me), but gets more complicated with non-binary choices, such as rock-paper-scissors.

Actually Important Stuff

A last area of note is that every action taken by any player is *technically* within the framework of WIFOM. It is, however, quite pedantic and useless to say that level 0 play or argumentation exists within some WIFOM framework, hence why WIFOM only has a place when higher levels of meta are brought into play/discussion. The only useful place lvl 0 has in WIFOM discussions is as an alternative to a proposed higher level argument or strategy.

I am posting the above because for the purpose of this analysis, I am going to be referring to the levels of WIFOM.

Assuming 100% Level Zero

, anyone who voted for Word321 is town. The two people that did not vote for Word321 are scum candidates.

Pre-cleared:

GeniusGamer

Town:
T-Bone
Redados
ItalianoVD
ShellyC

Scum candidates:
MiniMegabyte
Porkens

Assuming level 0

the two options for remaining scum are Porkens and MiniMegabyte. Porkens did not vote for Word321. However, they did post during twilight that they were waiting to hear a response from Word. This is pretty normal behavior; before elimination it is good form to wait for the player to flip or make a defense. It is sketchy to hammer without hearing a response. Because of this, I don't think that Porkens' lack of a vote was incredibly incriminating. Also, if Porkens were scum, then at level 0 they would not say what they did during Twilight. If they knew that Word321 was scum, they would have known those words would make them look bad.

MiniMegabyte hopped on Friday night (my time), unvoted GG, said that they would catch up later, and then they never did. They also said that they were not home. Again, I also don't think that this is particularly incriminating in itself.

Let's go into the level 1 options for WIFOM.

T-Bone - T-Bone parked his vote on Micc/Word321 in the first post. Then, he kept it the WHOLE day. He also kept pushing the slot pretty consistently. For this to be WIFOM level one... man. I really doubt it. It would have been very easy for T-Bone to have hopped onto the GeniusGamer or ShellyC wagons and arouse zero suspicion. If this doesn't completely clear him... I think it comes pretty close unless I'm missing something.

Redados - Before I changed my vote, SJReaver had declared intent to hammer on ShellyC. My action singlehandedly meant that Word321 was eliminated instead of ShellyC. If I were scum, I would have just sat there and done nothing for the next hour and let ShellyC be lynched. This could be super next-level WIFOM but I hope you guys see that in combination with how I've been playing, this looks very good for me. This is totally different than bussing a partner. I was very very relieved when I saw that Word321 was mafia. That was a weight off my chest.

ItalianoVD - Italiano hammered before Word321 had a chance to respond. This would have looked really scummy if Word hadn't been scum. But he was. So on level 0, this looks really good for Italiano. Some level 1 possibilities - maybe Italiano and Word were daytalking and Word told Italiano to hammer him. They both would have known that it would have looked really good for Italiano. Also, it was pretty inevitable here that Word was going to get eliminated. So maybe this move doesn't clear Italiano after all?

ShellyC - ShellyC's vote doesn't actually tell us anything. Her vote was a vote of self-preservation to the other leading wagon. Sure, at level zero she wouldn't have voted for the other mafia but it's not too much of a stretch to imagine her at level one here.

--

Above are the possibilities. Below are my actual opinions and thoughts.

--

I think that me, T-Bone, and Italiano are town (obviously I know that GeniusGamer is town too).
I think that the scum lies within Porkens, MiniMegabyte, and ShellyC.
I think that Porkens' play was at level 0 and that everything was above board (although I want to go back and look at their interactions with GeniusGamer).
I was moved by ShellyC's posts when she was at E-1, enough to change my vote off of her. I stand by that.
I think that MiniMegabyte is just new town.

Read list:

Redados
T-Bone
ItalianoVF
GeniusGamer

Porkens
ShellyC
MiniMegabyte

[Redados]

T-Bone - i think the page 3 RVS vote was kinda suspect, and sitting on it until page 10 is even more so. i think even if he's got a scum read on me here he hasn't gone about pursuing it in a town like manor, or done mush else in a town like manor.

We should have known that Micc was scum because of he misspelled "manner"

[Redados]

I did a deep dive on Porkens during the night. I read Newbie 2014, Newbie 2016, and Micro 943. My take from this is that Porkens' meta is NAI. I can't "read" Porkens' alignment based on meta. However, I still learned stuff. One is that scum!Porkens has participated in scum theater. Therefore, just because Porkens has pushed someone or argued with someone, it does NOT mean that it can't be a scum vs scum argument.

Porkens didn't really give any scumreads on Micc. However, they did throw doubt onto Word once he filled the slot.

[Redados]

(sorry for quadruple posting, I am just really excited because I was not able to post during the night)

RIP SJReaver. Post 389 was incredible and amazing. She will be missed!!!!

[T-Bone]

Your beans are blasphemy, GeorgeBailey

[ItalianoVD]

Oh yeah, we got scum.

[GeniusGamer]

Hmm. I’m a little surpised it wasn’t me. That’s nice, I guess...

I definitely see where Redados is coming from though, and reading through his analysis, I think I have the same reads list, except that I’m not clearing Italiano quite yet.

[ItalianoVD]

If Porkens hadn’t started the wagon on Genius, he (Genius) never would have claimed, which would have never caused SJ to confirm, which would have never allowed us to use process of elimination, which in turn got us the scum.

However, the action of Porkens late in the day (which is not alignment indicative) and the analysis of Redados regarding those actions seem a little off putting to me. Context is everything. Had this been normal circumstances then a hammer without waiting for a response would be looked at as bad or sketchy. In this game both town special roles were outed and after it was explained to me I had eliminated people as scum based off my early reads and the current happenings at that point in the game.

When I gave intent to hammer, I figured there would be no other claims and if Word did come in and most assuredly claim town, then what would have been the move at that point? No one said anything including the person who had a problem with my hammer about what to do or where to go in the event Word WAS town. My mind was exhausted and really couldn’t take anymore curveballs so I hammered.

But because of his defense of the move, the way his comments sounded while posting them, and other things I’ve had questions about I’m placing my vote down for now. It could possibly change, but I don’t know right now.

VOTE: Porkens

I would like to hear what everyone’s thoughts on Porkens is currently. With everything that has transpired.

[Redados]

How did you robin tour previous game with reads?

What is a robin tour?

I can't believe the mafia would lynch her

I don’t believe you.

Is this Porkens trying to imply that he had a power role?

Going fishing now??

Is this T-Bone trying to imply that he had a power role?

[ItalianoVD]

Hmm. I’m a little surpised it wasn’t me. That’s nice, I guess...

Well why do you think they went for SJ and not you?

[Redados]

If Porkens hadn’t started the wagon on Genius, he (Genius) never would have claimed, which would have never caused SJ to confirm, which would have never allowed us to use process of elimination, which in turn got us the scum.

Just a reminder that I debatably started the wagon on GG.

But I'm fine putting some pressure on Porkens. VOTE: Porkens

[ItalianoVD]

Sure no problem. I’ll give you that.

[Redados]

What makes me so scared is that I Cannot. Read. Porkens. Nothing they say is AI. All I can look at is actions. And Porkens did not find us the scum on Day One. Ugh.

[Porkens]

Spicy. I’ll put something together for your consideration.

[ItalianoVD]

What makes me so scared is that I Cannot. Read. Porkens. Nothing they say is AI. All I can look at is actions. And Porkens did not find us the scum on Day One. Ugh.

Honestly it’s not there job to find scum. It’s all of our jobs, well as town. I don’t like this post.

[ItalianoVD]

*their

[ItalianoVD]

As a matter of fact I don’t like the doubt that you seem to be brewing.

[ItalianoVD]

@TBone, that’s really all you have to say?

[GeniusGamer]

Hmm. I’m a little surpised it wasn’t me. That’s nice, I guess...

Well why do you think they went for SJ and not you?

SJ and I were both confirmed townies. Honestly, I think it was probably random. If it wasn't, I guess they thought SJ was more of a threat to them, though I can't think of any particular reasons.

[T-Bone]

What makes me so scared is that I Cannot. Read. Porkens. Nothing they say is AI. All I can look at is actions. And Porkens did not find us the scum on Day One. Ugh.

Right. Most players do not post alignment indicative stuff in every post.

Hence why I zeroed in on Micc for the one manipulation he was trying to do. And why I didn't quote a bunch of stuff and go..."scum...scum...oh look at how scum this is" etc.

I point this out to offer helpful advice for the future.

I actually think Porkens is his partner. I think you have it correct. I think if Micc/word321 had a newbie partner, they take a shot at Porkens or I instead. Yes, I know the correct kill was SJR...and I think that the fact that scum made the correct kill is an important consideration.

To be clear, it's not because I think a newbie player is inherently unskilled. I think it because they are newer they'd be more likely to make unconventional choices, because they don't have any assumptions to challenge. It was like when Shelly was challenging the validity of the Mason claim. I don't think it was because she scumslipping, but because she hasn't been around long enough to form assumptions on how things should be approached.

[T-Bone]

I swear I'm not trying to disparage anyone's skills based on their join date. I actually make the assumption that everyone plays to the absolute best of their abilities all the time.

[Redados]

What makes me so scared is that I Cannot. Read. Porkens. Nothing they say is AI. All I can look at is actions. And Porkens did not find us the scum on Day One. Ugh.

Honestly it’s not there job to find scum. It’s all of our jobs, well as town. I don’t like this post.

Let me try and be more clear: I cannot read Porkens. I cannot tell whether Porkens is scum or not based on what they post.

If Porkens had been integral in getting Word lynched, I would have decided that Porkens was town.

[Redados]

What makes me so scared is that I Cannot. Read. Porkens. Nothing they say is AI. All I can look at is actions. And Porkens did not find us the scum on Day One. Ugh.

Right. Most players do not post alignment indicative stuff in every post.

Hence why I zeroed in on Micc for the one manipulation he was trying to do. And why I didn't quote a bunch of stuff and go..."scum...scum...oh look at how scum this is" etc.

I point this out to offer helpful advice for the future.

I actually think Porkens is his partner. I think you have it correct. I think if Micc/word321 had a newbie partner, they take a shot at Porkens or I instead. Yes, I know the correct kill was SJR...and I think that the fact that scum made the correct kill is an important consideration.

To be clear, it's not because I think a newbie player is inherently unskilled. I think it because they are newer they'd be more likely to make unconventional choices, because they don't have any assumptions to challenge. It was like when Shelly was challenging the validity of the Mason claim. I don't think it was because she scumslipping, but because she hasn't been around long enough to form assumptions on how things should be approached.

This is a reaallly good point that I hadn't thought of it. If I were to think of it

strictly

in this way, this is what my lynchpool would be:

Redados (I would have eliminated SJReaver if I were scum)
ItalianoVD
T-Bone
Porkens

[Redados]

This is a reaallly good point that I hadn't thought of it. If I were to think of it

strictly

in this way, this is what my lynchpool would be:

Redados (I would have eliminated SJReaver if I were scum)
ItalianoVD
T-Bone
Porkens

I'm tunneling Porkens really hard right now.