Newbie 2019 | Game Over!

[shellyc]

744 Okay that’s understandable I did get on and see that word321 was being voted but I didn’t vote as when I got on they were at E-1 and no claim had been made from them. When I got the time to jump back on site they had been eliminated and it was night time so if you like I can post my reads since the confirmation of the two masons and the elimination of word321

Please post a reads list, more information is good!

In regards to (1), now that T-Bone has posted his night kill analysis, I don't think that you (MiniMegabyte) are mafia.

My reads list-

Town:
GeniusGamer
Redados

Convincing Town:
T-Bone
ItalianoVD

New Town:
ShellyC
MiniMegabyte

Scum?:
Porkens

This is evolving and it's totally possible that I'm tunneling here. Also possibly sheeping because I honestly had not really thought more about the night kill until T-Bone said something.

Did you just townread everyone...

[Porkens]

Alrighty lemme make some words here.

ISO of Micc and Word321

1. Before replacing out, Micc pushed a wagon on MM. This looks like a real attempt at getting a miscancel rather than bussing because there's no reason to bus here and MM was a relatively easy target. At one point, Micc encourages GG to vote for MM as well.

Conclusion: MM is not partnered with MiccWord.

2. Micc's early interactions with T-Bone are nuanced enough that they look like a genuine interaction between non-aligned players. It's not just question/answer. There is a subtext of suspicion and emotion which I think is hard to fake. After Word replaces in, T-Bone continues to press his scum read and Word resorts to the "baiting" argument. Again, if they are paired this is a good opportunity for T-Bone to back off and for them to consolidate on Shelly, which doesn't happen.

Conclusion: T-Bone is not partnered with MiccWord

3. Micc shades redados in his realist. Later, Word questions redados about reading IDV's games and subsequent TR. Once Red answers, Word just ignores them. These could both be some kind of distancing, but I would suggest evaluating Red on his own merits and look for other likelier partners.

Conclusion: There are some mild WIFOM connections with Redados, but these would only be supporting evidence to a larger case on Red. Not likely partnered with MiccWord based on this alone.

Reading MiccWord with Others

1. MiccWord + T-Bone: T-Bone calls Micc scummy all day. This is just an unbelievable amount of bussing to be taken seriously unless you want to get deeply paranoid.

Conclusion: No change. T-Bone is not partnered with Micc/Word.

2. MiccWord + ShellyC: Shelly was aggressive towards Micc, and called him out more than once. When Word321 replaces, she puts him at null, then when he votes for her, she votes for him. Again, this is a lot of interaction that seems genuine rather than bussing.

Conclusion: ShellyC is not partnered with MiccWord

3. MiccWord + Redados: Micc joins Red's RVS vote. Red mostly reads Micc as "helpful teacher." Red calls Micc neutral. Red interacts with Hatguy, does a meta analysis, and calls him scum. This would be completely unnecessary bussing.

Conclusion REVISED: Redados is not partnered with MiccWord

4. MiccWord + MM: MM questions Micc on some T-Bone related stuff. There is no interaction with Word at all. This behavior could be possible distancing, but combined with Micc's push to get MM eliminated, I find it doubtful.

Conclusion: No Change, MM is not partnered with MiccWord

So, to sum up, I think it's very unlikely that Micc/Words partner is T-Bone, ShellyC, Redados, or MM.

Next up...Italiano

[shellyc]

Hmmm this is a really good post.

As Micc is an SE, would Micc be bussing MM, while MM distances from Micc/Word? is that possible

[Porkens]

I'll start with the conclusion that

Italiano is probably MiccWord's partner.

Reading through the ISO of Micc and Word, several things stand out, again:

Micc votes Italiano in what seems like RVS. However, Italiano asks Micc to confirm that vote was serious. Micc replies that it was, in fact, serious. Instead of continuing the discussion at that point, however, Micc goes on to interact with TBone and Shelly. Much later, Micc unvotes Italiano with no explanation or stronger scum read.

This, to me, looks like distancing.

In Micc's reads list, he simply has Italiano down as "seems pretty town."

No critical analysis at all.- no mention of his vote sitting there for pages.

After word replaces in, There is no interaction with Italiano, at all.

I don't think Word mentions him once.

Looking at MiccWord and Italiano together:

Italiano does not find Micc's vote on himself suspicious, although he tells us that he assumes it is a serious vote.
However, instead of pursuing anything related to that, Italiano pivots to Red.
Meanwhile, Micc confirms that his vote signifies a departure from RVS (ie his vote on Italiano is serious) but then starts focusing on T-Bone.

Why don't either of them follow up on their interactions?

Italiano says that he "isn't feeling" Micc 74 but that "the wording sounds townie but I don't know." and then later sticks Micc in the "null" zone in his reads list.
After that, Italiano talks with NN, Red, and GG. Not long from there he says micc's "reevaluating that way makes me think town" and puts him in a no-elimination group. Finally, Italiano questions Shelly on her vote for Micc, stating that they are both town reads.

This progression isn't based on any actions on Micc's part that I can see. Other than Micc "reevaluating" a couple of reads, I don't see a natural justification for this change.

Towards the end of the day, Italiano agrees with SJR's reads list but warns "I'm suspicious of people who townread me ".

I'm not sure if this is pocketing or LAMIST or what, but it's something.

About the time Word replaced in, Italiano was leaning in to ShellyC. He welcomes Word, and calls both he and T-Bone town. Then, in 585, Italiano says scum are between Shelly and Word, but votes for Shelly. There are no posts from word for some time. Italiano publicly talks himself out of voting for shelly and hammers Word.

This unnatural and conflicting reads progression looks like an attempt to first save, then bus, a mafia partner.

Conclusion: Italiano is partnered with MiccWord

VOTE: ItalianoVD

I believe this is correct. There are a smattering of other associative as I've described, but in the unlikely event that this flips town, I'll reevaluate at that time.

[Porkens]

Hmmm this is a really good post.

As Micc is an SE, would Micc be bussing MM, while MM distances from Micc/Word? is that possible

I think it's possible, but the push from Micc looked genuinely like he wanted it to go through. He encouraged GG to get on the wagon, and I recall there being a bit of suspicion on MM around that time, so it was in the air anyway. For that reason, I think the pairing is unlikely.

[shellyc]

Italiano ISO key points: (MiccWord interactions)
- I think he called out Micc in #129?
- Italiano can’t get a read off of Micc in #187
- Questioning my Micc vote in #287?
- Thinks T-Bone and Micc are having a town-town interaction in #465 (RED ALERT)
- leaves me and word as scum in #585
- Hammered word

From the above I can say that he may be partnered with MiccWord. His interactions with Micc were much more partner-ish (maybe word told italiano to bus him?)

[shellyc]

wait you already did an analysis on Italiano. didn't realise that before posting

[Porkens]

Yep, I think we are on the same page!

[shellyc]

Ok finished reading your wall. That was from the perspective of Micc/Word's ISO, mine was from ItalianoVD's ISO. We both came to the same conclusion.

I agree with the save/bus development, especially after reading Word/Micc ISO. Also the lack of interactions between the two are glaringly suspect to me. I'd like to put some pressure on Italiano.

VOTE: ItalianoVD

[shellyc]

I'll start with the conclusion that Italiano is probably MiccWord's partner.

could confirmation bias have affected your analysis

[MiniMegabyte]

So now there is suspicion on Italiano when wasnt he the one that everyone was saying that he was town from the beginning? I am not eaxctly confident on this as he is playing exactly the same as the game i last played with him where he was town.

Then again this was the only game i have ever played with them as it was my first ever game on site.
I can see all the points you are all making but for some reason in my gut i don't feel Italiano is scum here.

Of course if the vote goes through and i am wrong then obviously i have a lot of thinking to do because i am not doing something right.

Because of everything i have explained above, i am not going to vote Italiano unless someone can change my mind because to me it seems unlikely.

[Porkens]

I only wrote that at the top after I completed my analysis, but that doesn't really answer your question.

I don't think I'm influenced too much by confbias in this case. I did suspect Italiano's motive for that hammer. However, when I read through, I tried to do it as objectively as possible, note the interactions, and then analyze them on their own merits. Anyone is free to analyze my notes and challenge how I have interpreted events, or pick apart my analysis based on the facts. I'm fairly confident that my conclusions will hold up to the scrutiny, though.

[MiniMegabyte]

Okay so if we were going off you theory of distancing would you then say that post 16 is a way of distancing extremely early?

[shellyc]

So now there is suspicion on Italiano when wasnt he the one that everyone was saying that he was town from the beginning? I am not eaxctly confident on this as he is playing exactly the same as the game i last played with him where he was town.

He might have improved / adjusted to feedback from MiccWord

[Porkens]

So now there is suspicion on Italiano when wasnt he the one that everyone was saying that he was town from the beginning? I am not eaxctly confident on this as he is playing exactly the same as the game i last played with him where he was town.

Then again this was the only game i have ever played with them as it was my first ever game on site.
I can see all the points you are all making but for some reason in my gut i don't feel Italiano is scum here.

Of course if the vote goes through and i am wrong then obviously i have a lot of thinking to do because i am not doing something right.

Because of everything i have explained above, i am not going to vote Italiano unless someone can change my mind because to me it seems unlikely.

That's cool, I'll give it a try: take a look at this progression:

Spoiler:

I’m liking Sunflower Guy so far. Welcome to the thread!

We still need to decide who exactly to eliminate though. So who will that be? I do notice a wagon on Redados, and I’m not getting very town-like vibes from him... I’ll just keep my vote here until I’m convinced otherwise.

VOTE: Redados

Welcome to the game word321. Happy to have you. Personally, I still think TBone and the Micc slot (You) is a town vs town interaction. Hopefully I’m right.

As of right now, I only see a couple players I could vote for instead of Red. I still feel a little questionable about Genius especially with his recent vote, so I could maybe go there. Porkens is the other player I’ve not been too high on. Everyone else seems like town to me. If any of my townread players are scum then kudos to you. I don’t really like the partnership thing, but if I had to guess I’d say Red/Porkens.

Word is town.

Alright so with these new events in mind. I can assume:

Town:
Genius
SJReaver
Myself
Porkens
TBone
Mini
Red

That leaves Shelly and Word (Micc) as scum

After the masons claim, Word is scum.

Well I guess I will get the wagon started on Shelly.

VOTE: Shellyc

Since Word is already at 2 I figure to put pressure on this slot and see what happens.

Let's Kill Shelly tho.

Eh, since there is no claim to be had I can wait a bit.

VOTE: unvote

Let’s squeeze reactions out as much as we can.

I like it. I learned that last game when scum self hammered and ruined the chance of further discussion.

Note that line in bold

hmm
too many posts

VOTE: Shelly
im ok tackling copycat
id rather go there than on my own slot, thats for sure
and there is a small detail, but hers was the only slot that didnt immediatly vote on gg
ill try to review later the wagon on genius on detail to see how it rly went
today im kind of busy, so ill be brief
if u have some questions, ill try to answer em if i see em

Two posts from word, one with 0 content and the other with a vote

agreeing

with Italiano.

Sorry, I was out. Before I hammer I’m re-evaluating everything. As of right now Genius, SJ, myself, and Mini are who I am banking on being town. Almost 100%. I don’t know about everyone else, especially if Word flips town. Anyway.

VOTE: Word321

Word is dead. For what? Agreeing that ShellyC should be the elimination?
Note that the "hammering and ruining the chance for further discussion" argument no longer applies.

I can't see a logical progression here, which makes me think there is a

different

logic to it, ie. bussing.

[Porkens]

Okay so if we were going off you theory of distancing would you then say that post 16 is a way of distancing extremely early?

Sure! I don't know what the statistics are on mafia voting their partners in RVS but it seems like a tempting strategy.

[Porkens]

So now there is suspicion on Italiano when wasnt he the one that everyone was saying that he was town from the beginning? I am not eaxctly confident on this as he is playing exactly the same as the game i last played with him where he was town.

My suspicion is based on his interactions with flipped scum. If we had flipped ShellyC instead, I probably wouldn't think IDV was particularly scummy.

I'd be willing to look at that game if you want to link it.

[MiniMegabyte]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=83349

There is that game. However as i did state this is the only game i have played with Italiano and my very first game on the server

[ItalianoVD]

Alright, as expected. You make a very compelling argument and if I wasn’t me I’d probably believe you. I will make my case against you. At that point the town will decide who to vote for. I have no problem getting eliminated if it means you are taken out the next day.

[Porkens]

Alright, as expected. You make a very compelling argument and if I wasn’t me I’d probably believe you. I will make my case against you. At that point the town will decide who to vote for. I have no problem getting eliminated if it means you are taken out the next day.

Wow, you must have a lot of confidence in your case if you are that sure I'm scum. I look forward to reading it.

[ItalianoVD]

Alright, as expected. You make a very compelling argument and if I wasn’t me I’d probably believe you. I will make my case against you. At that point the town will decide who to vote for. I have no problem getting eliminated if it means you are taken out the next day.

Wow, you must have a lot of confidence in your case if you are that sure I'm scum. I look forward to reading it.

Well I’m gonna state my case and then I’m gonna defend myself and that’ll be it. Whatever happens at that point is what it is.

[shellyc]

That sounds really confident from Italiano. Though if this comes as a mislim I'm not surprised the next in line might be Porkens

[shellyc]

MAY I ASK WHERE YOUR DEFENSE IS. it's been 1 hour dude

[MiniMegabyte]

MAY I ASK WHERE YOUR DEFENSE IS. it's been 1 hour dude

Honestly ive been thinking the same and ive been refreshing this page so much. No defense or either a really long defensive message. Im starting to feel like maybe i might have been wrong...

[MiniMegabyte]

Maybe he could be typing out a really massive defensive paragraph