Newbie 2019 | Game Over!

[ItalianoVD]

Chill Shelly. We have time. I’m writing.

[MiniMegabyte]

Chill Shelly. We have time. I’m writing.

Yikes this is going to be interesting to read

[shellyc]

Even a really massive one shouldn't take an hour in my opinion

[shellyc]

Ok I just realised you sent this. I look forward to your paragraph

[shellyc]

Me: refreshes the page every 5 mins
Italiano: still writing an essay

[MiniMegabyte]

Me: refreshes the page every 5 mins
Italiano: still writing an essay

Lol I am distracting myself with netflix and after every episode of supernatural i am checking here for that essay and still nothing

[T-Bone]

Okay can we not go " it's been an hour he must be scum!!" Hmm?

[shellyc]

I never said he was scum, I'm just kinda impatient.

[MiniMegabyte]

Well it’s like 10pm here and I have physio in the morning so I need to sleep. Will catch up in the morning hopefully there’s mire info then

[shellyc]

NEW READS LIST: (based on partnerships, NKA, and my old reads list)

Townie:
GeniusGamer (lock town)
Redados (his posting and mindset, also not likely partner with MiccWord)
T-Bone (he kept attacking MiccWord, thus not a partner)

Less Townie:
Porkens (I agree with his Italiano partnership speculation, but still suspect from a NKA and PoE perspective)
MiniMegabyte (Proclaims to be new town, but this "distancing" could be a scum tactic)
ItalianoVD (partnership analysis, but looks town-ish from posting, it all could be a facade, but if he flips town Porkens is sus)

My vote is on Italiano to pressure him and get him to defend himself.

[ItalianoVD]

Alright. So I’m gonna make my case for Porkens first. Then I’ll be defending myself against Porkens case in another post. Anyway.

I was iffy about Porkens from about page 3 or 4 and as the day progressed I just felt more and more uneasy about him. I didn’t initially assume it was a scumread. I thought it could have been because of him having a power role, which is why I didn’t really say much. From experience village/town power roles can potentially look suspicious as wolf/scum power roles. But it seemed and looked more sketchy/scummy the more he interacted with the player list . That’s when I began doing deep dives into his ISOs and interactions. It’s interesting how he highlighted everyone else’s but his own interactions with MiccWord.

Here it goes:

Spoiler:

A weird opening post 6. I know it’s not alignment indicative, but the games I’ve seen on here player’s usually will vote in their first post in. Not always, but a good majority of games I have read and the two I have played in, it has been the case.

Then he votes for Redados in 20. I figured it was RVS, which was why my question to Porkens in 24 was asked. Partly in jest, partly real. His response in 27 was enough for me. What happened next was weird to me.

Porkens wanted to put pressure on Redados for unvoting Genius. Okay fine. But also in 27 he did not believe Redados’ answer to his initial question. He said this:

”2 votes isn’t close to day ending, and pressure promotes discussion. This is not a good reason to unvote. Why did you really unvote?”

That’s when he votes for Shellyc with Redados literally several posts later without having said he believed him or that he accepted his answer, which is kind of weird to follow the vote of someone you few may be scum. There also wasn’t an explanation to why he had voted for Shellyc. His vote stayed on her until page 19 in 467 when he voted for Genius.

I have to assume that Porkens voted for Shellyc for similar reasons Redados did since he never explained why. That reason is not posting. After Shellyc posted Redados backed off of her. Porkens did not. I make mention of this in 309.Then in 312 he asked: “What have I said about shellac that strikes you as disengenuous?”

My response in 322 was met with no answer/response. Unless you wanna say 325 was a response. I don’t think it was.

For me Porkens scumread on Shellyc was not organic and was forced. He voted for her on page 2 for no reason obvious to anyone and then spent almost 17 pages trying to prove that she was scum and didn’t understand why I WASN’T scumreading her. Really never even giving my reasons much thought.

Porkens spent much of Day 1 asking questions and pressuring different people, but never gave reads and never really opened up about anything unless prompted. When he was questioned and pressured he either didn’t answer or answered with a question. Particularly I felt he was being defensive or purposely difficult in his interaction with N0blenoob on page 5.

To be fair in 204 he did ask “does anyone want to ask me questions.” However Redados asked him who he thought was scum. He didn’t say Shellyc who had been voting for at the time. He said: “I don’t know. I think everyone who I’ve engaged has done a reasonable job explaining themselves, and I haven’t really been thinking too hard about alignment yet. I’m hoping that when I look back I’ll see some clues.”

Here’s the irony in his push onto me. He seems to forget 208 where he “feels” Micc is town and “feels” I am scum based on my avatar.

In 247 He never mentioned Micc at all. He had a read for T Bone, Genius, myself, Shelly, Mini, N0ble and Red somewhat. But where was Micc. And he never came back to correct it. But actually read the list. Everyone is suspicious on his list. That is a common and historic scum tell. Shade everyone and don’t have a solid read. If you are suspicious of everyone than you can’t get caught in voting/read inconsistencies because you’ll point back to the list and say you had precedent for voting that read.

In post 285 he asks Shellyc what she found scummy in Micc. She never answered and he never went back to it.

In [post]363 he says this: “Well we have just under 3 days left now. We should probably move toward consolidating one or two wagons. I really do not feel like Redados is a good elimination today. I'm just OK with Mini. Micc I am not feeling at all. ShellyC and NobleNoob would be my top two choices.”

Funny how he was not feeling Micc at all here which makes me think he wasn’t going to eliminate him no matter what. So then how can he shade me for placing Micc on my no elimination list? Smh.

In 692 I mentioned:

”What else is there to say? If we’re under the premise that Genius and SJ are the power roles, he’s not gonna counterclaim right? If he comes in and gives a compelling argument that he is town then what? I’d honestly just like to get this day over with.”

If that was a wrong way to feel then my bad, but I genuinely was exhausted and wanted the day to be over. I was extremely excited that Word was scum. Porkens not so much. I’m probably pushing it here but Porkens’ reaction to my hammer made me feel like he was upset that we had hammered his partner and was reacting to it instead of a concerned townie trying to be genuine. Notice the difference between SJReavers response to Word and Porkens.

SJReaver: 681

Porkens: 689 690 691

All these things make me believe at best Porkens is scum and at worst he is a bad townie. Either way it doesn’t help us especially with his incorrect read on me.

[ItalianoVD]

Sorry guys. I didn’t have it typed up, but I had it in my head. Kinda sorry it took so long.

[shellyc]

For the twilight posts, why would Porkens try and give word a chance to speak, when word is clearly elimmed?
Also it'd make him look bad.

[Redados]

Did you just townread everyone...

Yes lol. I was tunneling Porkens really bad last night.

I like Red a lot here. He's not in my lynchpool. He has posted a few long posts analysing various aspects. I feel like scum wouldn't have the motivation to do this.

Porkens, Mini, possibly T-Bone? would be my lynches.
Also you TR T-Bone in post 701 but put him in lynchpool in post 723. That's contradictory.

My reads: (in order from town -> scum)

GeniusGamer

ItalianoVD

Redados

T-Bone

MiniMegabyte

Porkens

Might change porkens to purple zone after that post

I want to point out that at this point, all Porkens had done was post an ISO analysis. Anyone can do this, whether they are scum or town. To top it off, at this point, Porkens had not even made any sort of analysis or point, just did a data dump. This was useful, but expected based on this point in the game. What Porkens did is exactly what I would expect scum!Porkens to do.

Now, I'm NOT saying that the post means Porkens is scum. I'm saying that the post is NAI.

In regards to Porkens' post 753, this is a good post. I have definitely tunneled and not really accepted that anyone but Porkens could be scum. Post 753 has convinced me that ItalianoVD is not as conftown as I had him in my head.

Everyone should remember that Micc was relatively inactive, so we don't have a ton of solid interactions to base our thoughts off of.

I'll start with the conclusion that Italiano is probably MiccWord's partner.

could confirmation bias have affected your analysis

Consider the possibility that Porkens is scum; Porkens went back and ISOd and made the best case possible. There isn't really anyone else that Porkens can push for as scum here. Scum!Porkens would have had to make do with what they have to work with, which is that ItalianoVD looks the "worst" among everyone left that isn't Porkens.

So now there is suspicion on Italiano when wasnt he the one that everyone was saying that he was town from the beginning? I am not eaxctly confident on this as he is playing exactly the same as the game i last played with him where he was town.

Then again this was the only game i have ever played with them as it was my first ever game on site.
I can see all the points you are all making but for some reason in my gut i don't feel Italiano is scum here.

Of course if the vote goes through and i am wrong then obviously i have a lot of thinking to do because i am not doing something right.

Because of everything i have explained above, i am not going to vote Italiano unless someone can change my mind because to me it seems unlikely.

Italiano has played in two games on this site and he has been town in both games. We haven't seen him play a scum game yet. For all we know, his scum game is identical to his town game. We can use meta to color our opinions but it's hard to use it as ironclad to make a decision on alignment.

P edit: I just saw that Italiano posted, I'll respond to that in a separate post

[shellyc]

Otherwise, I feel like your other points are pretty valid. You two are OMGUSsing each other. interesting

[Redados]

For the twilight posts, why would Porkens try and give word a chance to speak, when word is clearly elimmed?
Also it'd make him look bad.

This is WIFOM, I think.

Otherwise, I feel like your other points are pretty valid. You two are OMGUSsing each other. interesting

I don't think that this is necessarily OMGUS because at this point, I think that these are our last two scum candidates. There's no one else to target at this point if we look at NKA and day one voting.

[shellyc]

Consider the possibility that Porkens is scum; Porkens went back and ISOd and made the best case possible. There isn't really anyone else that Porkens can push for as scum here. Scum!Porkens would have had to make do with what they have to work with, which is that ItalianoVD looks the "worst" among everyone left that isn't Porkens.

I thought Italiano was highly townread so "worst"???
Porkens could have made a case on "mislynchables" like me and mini

[shellyc]

yeah NKA / voting / partnership wise, I feel like these two are the lynches

[Redados]

Alright. So I’m gonna make my case for Porkens first. Then I’ll be defending myself against Porkens case in another post. Anyway.

I was iffy about Porkens from about page 3 or 4 and as the day progressed I just felt more and more uneasy about him. I didn’t initially assume it was a scumread. I thought it could have been because of him having a power role, which is why I didn’t really say much. From experience village/town power roles can potentially look suspicious as wolf/scum power roles. But it seemed and looked more sketchy/scummy the more he interacted with the player list . That’s when I began doing deep dives into his ISOs and interactions. It’s interesting how he highlighted everyone else’s but his own interactions with MiccWord.

Here it goes:

Spoiler:

A weird opening post 6. I know it’s not alignment indicative, but the games I’ve seen on here player’s usually will vote in their first post in. Not always, but a good majority of games I have read and the two I have played in, it has been the case.

Then he votes for Redados in 20. I figured it was RVS, which was why my question to Porkens in 24 was asked. Partly in jest, partly real. His response in 27 was enough for me. What happened next was weird to me.

Porkens wanted to put pressure on Redados for unvoting Genius. Okay fine. But also in 27 he did not believe Redados’ answer to his initial question. He said this:

”2 votes isn’t close to day ending, and pressure promotes discussion. This is not a good reason to unvote. Why did you really unvote?”

That’s when he votes for Shellyc with Redados literally several posts later without having said he believed him or that he accepted his answer, which is kind of weird to follow the vote of someone you few may be scum. There also wasn’t an explanation to why he had voted for Shellyc. His vote stayed on her until page 19 in 467 when he voted for Genius.

I have to assume that Porkens voted for Shellyc for similar reasons Redados did since he never explained why. That reason is not posting. After Shellyc posted Redados backed off of her. Porkens did not. I make mention of this in 309.Then in 312 he asked: “What have I said about shellac that strikes you as disengenuous?”

My response in 322 was met with no answer/response. Unless you wanna say 325 was a response. I don’t think it was.

For me Porkens scumread on Shellyc was not organic and was forced. He voted for her on page 2 for no reason obvious to anyone and then spent almost 17 pages trying to prove that she was scum and didn’t understand why I WASN’T scumreading her. Really never even giving my reasons much thought.

Porkens spent much of Day 1 asking questions and pressuring different people, but never gave reads and never really opened up about anything unless prompted. When he was questioned and pressured he either didn’t answer or answered with a question. Particularly I felt he was being defensive or purposely difficult in his interaction with N0blenoob on page 5.

To be fair in 204 he did ask “does anyone want to ask me questions.” However Redados asked him who he thought was scum. He didn’t say Shellyc who had been voting for at the time. He said: “I don’t know. I think everyone who I’ve engaged has done a reasonable job explaining themselves, and I haven’t really been thinking too hard about alignment yet. I’m hoping that when I look back I’ll see some clues.”

Here’s the irony in his push onto me. He seems to forget 208 where he “feels” Micc is town and “feels” I am scum based on my avatar.

In 247 He never mentioned Micc at all. He had a read for T Bone, Genius, myself, Shelly, Mini, N0ble and Red somewhat. But where was Micc. And he never came back to correct it. But actually read the list. Everyone is suspicious on his list. That is a common and historic scum tell. Shade everyone and don’t have a solid read. If you are suspicious of everyone than you can’t get caught in voting/read inconsistencies because you’ll point back to the list and say you had precedent for voting that read.

In post 285 he asks Shellyc what she found scummy in Micc. She never answered and he never went back to it.

In [post]363 he says this: “Well we have just under 3 days left now. We should probably move toward consolidating one or two wagons. I really do not feel like Redados is a good elimination today. I'm just OK with Mini. Micc I am not feeling at all. ShellyC and NobleNoob would be my top two choices.”

Funny how he was not feeling Micc at all here which makes me think he wasn’t going to eliminate him no matter what. So then how can he shade me for placing Micc on my no elimination list? Smh.

In 692 I mentioned:

”What else is there to say? If we’re under the premise that Genius and SJ are the power roles, he’s not gonna counterclaim right? If he comes in and gives a compelling argument that he is town then what? I’d honestly just like to get this day over with.”

If that was a wrong way to feel then my bad, but I genuinely was exhausted and wanted the day to be over. I was extremely excited that Word was scum. Porkens not so much. I’m probably pushing it here but Porkens’ reaction to my hammer made me feel like he was upset that we had hammered his partner and was reacting to it instead of a concerned townie trying to be genuine. Notice the difference between SJReavers response to Word and Porkens.

SJReaver: 681

Porkens: 689 690 691

All these things make me believe at best Porkens is scum and at worst he is a bad townie. Either way it doesn’t help us especially with his incorrect read on me.

For the record, right now I still think that Porkens is scum. That being said, I'm going to go through what stands out to me here.

Your analysis from posts 6-27 I don't think tells us much because that was RVS. It's a totally valid argument to kind of vote however in this period, because one can make the argument that it's all about testing people's reactions to the votes. Porkens didn't care that I unvoted, it was NAI especially in RVS. Porkens wanted to see how I responded and how I held up under pressure. You say that it's weird that it's weird Porkens voted with me when they thought I was scum. To that I say, Porkens didn't think I was scum, they were just pushing me like they push everyone.

You say that Porkens didn't give a reason for the vote on ShellyC. Wasn't Porkens calling ShellyC out pretty consistently for a while on sheeping reads? Just because an RVS vote sticks doesn't mean you can't keep it (ie T-Bone's vote on Micc).

I backed off of ShellyC after they posted. In hindsight, this was the correct decision. However in the moment it gave me a lot of pause and it was a huge possibility that I left my vote on her. I think that not switching her vote is only AI in hindsight, I completely believe that Town!Porkens would have acted the same way. Porkens pushed for shelly for eight pages, as you said. It's in character/consistent to push for Shelly's elimination there.

I'm gonna be honest, your avatar bothers me too I would like it much more if you chose one of the images and had it be stationary. But that is neither here nor there.

I think the Porkens <-> Micc slot interactions that you've detailed are the most damning and compelling parts of your posts. After reading what you've posted, my vote on Porkens stands.

[shellyc]

Redados and Italiano vs Porkens and me (kinda).
I’m leaning towards Porkens' case. I buy into his partner analysis.
But I'm open to anything, but the defense wasn't super motivating for me

[shellyc]

I backed off of ShellyC after they posted. In hindsight, this was the correct decision. However in the moment it gave me a lot of pause and it was a huge possibility that I left my vote on her. I think that not switching her vote is only AI in hindsight, I completely believe that Town!Porkens would have acted the same way. Porkens pushed for shelly for eight pages, as you said. It's in character/consistent to push for Shelly's elimination there.

I dont know what he was doing there, but he seemed to think I was a "target" of sorts

[Redados]

Consider the possibility that Porkens is scum; Porkens went back and ISOd and made the best case possible. There isn't really anyone else that Porkens can push for as scum here. Scum!Porkens would have had to make do with what they have to work with, which is that ItalianoVD looks the "worst" among everyone left that isn't Porkens.

I thought Italiano was highly townread so "worst"???
Porkens could have made a case on "mislynchables" like me and mini

Italiano was practically conf town on day one when we were just going off feels.

Now we have two new pieces of information: 1) Micc slot's alignment and 2) NKA.

I don't think it makes him even look too bad, it's just that there's no one else it could be, so feels doesn't cut it anymore. We have to logic it out.

I backed off of ShellyC after they posted. In hindsight, this was the correct decision. However in the moment it gave me a lot of pause and it was a huge possibility that I left my vote on her. I think that not switching her vote is only AI in hindsight, I completely believe that Town!Porkens would have acted the same way. Porkens pushed for shelly for eight pages, as you said. It's in character/consistent to push for Shelly's elimination there.

I dont know what he was doing there, but he seemed to think I was a "target" of sorts

Yeah but I don't think him targeting you is AI because I also honestly was convinced you were scum

[shellyc]

Yeah but I don't think him targeting you is AI because I also honestly was convinced you were scum

Why did you go off me after my defense if you thought I was scum

[Redados]

Yeah but I don't think him targeting you is AI because I also honestly was convinced you were scum

Why did you go off me after my defense if you thought I was scum

I meta-dived Word and convinced myself he was scummier than you. I didn't townread you until today (Day 2).

[ItalianoVD]

Alright so here is my defense to Porkens case.

So let’s start from the conclusion that I am NOT MiccWord’s partner and townie. Something you failed to do; only framing your case with confirmation bias.

Spoiler:

Micc votes Italiano in what seems like RVS.

Nope. Wrong. Micc moved out of RVS

because

of the vote for me. He said he didn’t like my question to you about why you were questioning Redados. I thought it was a fair suspicion after he explained in more detail in 49.

However, Italiano asks Micc to confirm that vote was serious.

Nope. Didn’t ask him if his vote was serious. I asked him to explain why my question to you was unproductive.

Micc replies that it was, in fact, serious.

Not sure what conversation you were reading but our interaction went nothing like that.

This is how the interaction actually went.
- I vote for Micc in RVS
- Micc votes for me because of a question I asked Porkens. This leaves RVS
- I give reason for what I did
- I then ask why he felt the way he felt
- He explained why
- I accepted the explanation

In Micc's reads list, he simply has Italiano down as "seems pretty town."[/i]

Interesting how you left out the rest. He continued

“the unsureness about SE's in particular feels genuine. also thought his reaction to my push out of RVS was good. 123 is a thought from someone who is legitimately scum hunting.”

After word replaces in, There is no interaction with Italiano, at all.

I don't think Word mentions him once.

This is nai. Word didn’t mention anyone but TBone. Based on your argument anyone of us can be MiccWord’s partner.

Italiano does not find Micc's vote on himself suspicious, although he tells us that he assumes it is a serious vote.

Why would I find it suspicious? Unless it actually was. He gave a reason why he voted and in my eyes at the time it was a legitimate one.

However, instead of pursuing anything related to that, Italiano pivots to Red.

Meanwhile, Micc confirms that his vote signifies a departure from RVS (ie his vote on Italiano is serious) but then starts focusing on T-Bone.

Why don't either of them follow up on their interactions?

I can’t speak for Micc, but I’m not gonna waste my time trying to convince someone I’m town when I can be trying to find scum.

Italiano says that he "isn't feeling" Micc 74 but that "the wording sounds townie but I don't know." and then later sticks Micc in the "null" zone in his reads list.

Yeah well I didn’t like his post in 74 because defending is not alignment indicative. Unfortunately he never answered me. The reason I said it seemed town is because his wording could come from town, but the logic didn’t seem right. I placed him in the null zone because I didn’t know how to read him or how to feel about him.

After that, Italiano talks with NN, Red, and GG. Not long from there he says micc's "reevaluating that way makes me think town" and puts him in a no-elimination group. Finally, Italiano questions Shelly on her vote for Micc, stating that they are both town reads.

I just don’t like how you are leaving out the context. This is what I posted in 241: “For Micc to re-evaluate the way he has me thinking town. My last two games scum didn’t do this or if they did it felt fake or forced. I could be wrong, but I’m not feeling that here.”

My first two games players who kept their vote on me without evaluation turned out to be scum on the other hand players who re-evaluated why they were voting for me turned out to be town so what else do I assume in this case? You tell me.

Interestingly enough I WAS wrong, but at the time I felt it was a good town read. I’m assume Micc did it on purpose to get in my good graces. It worked.

Towards the end of the day, Italiano agrees with SJR's reads list but warns "I'm suspicious of people who townread me ".

I'm not sure if this is pocketing or LAMIST or what, but it's something.

I am suspicious of people who townread me for no reason. In this instance I didn’t understand the reason and wanted SJ to elaborate on it which she did.

As I said though I’m suspicious regardless of the alignment read. So either an unfounded scum or town read I will question. Key word is unfounded. If I think it’s a legitimate reason than I can only go by the person’s word. I can’t speculate into what they actually. I have to take it for face value.

About the time Word replaced in, Italiano was leaning in to ShellyC. He welcomes Word, and calls both he and T-Bone town. Then, in 585, Italiano says scum are between Shelly and Word, but votes for Shelly. There are no posts from word for some time. Italiano publicly talks himself out of voting for shelly and hammers Word.

Yes, at the time Genius and SJReaver had come out as the town Masons. I had town reads for TBone, Mini, SJReaver, Genius, myself. I placed you and Redados as town due to the previous posting and reaction to the Masons coming out. So through process of elimination I ended up on Shellyc and Word. In 604 I mentioned putting pressure on the Shellyc slot to see what happened. She got to L1 and that’s when she pretty much lost it. In 674 I let Shelly know based on her response I wouldn’t be comfortable voting her so I decided to go onto the other slot (based off the process of elimination) I didn’t know for sure that Word was scum, but I was hoping the process of elimination was correct and he was scum. The latter part of the day was confusing and was throwing all my reads out of whack, which is why I had to keep reevaluating them. It was crazy.

I believe this is correct. There are a smattering of other associative as I've described, but in the unlikely event that this flips town, I'll reevaluate at that time.

Sure you will. If I am eliminated and I prove to be town what will be your plan then? Make a case on Mini or TBone or Shelly again. What are you gonna keep making wrong cases until it’s Lylo?