so if my analysis of all 12 player normals across 2019 is correct (courtesy of the mini normal archives which are courtesy of me), town's winrates across all 13 player games was roughly 66% while across all games it was closer to 53%, which suggests that smaller mini normal setups tended to be won by scum more often, which i think would suggest that they tended to be balanced as scumsided
this is just sort of background for my thought process in balancing a 12 player setup. onto specifics:
just from a setup perspective rather than only a balance perspective, i don't like the fact that you have 5 TPRs and more TPRs than there are VTs. none of the roles themselves are complex at all (which is good if you're going to have a lot of them), but it is still more than typical.
okay, balance points: innocent child + watcher that can see the mafia kill is a hard no. that interactions are really bad
here's a potential alternative setup off the top of my head (you don't have to accept it, it's just a suggestion):
Mafia Even-Night Commuter
Mafia Neighbor
Mafia Neighbor
Town 2-shot
Personal Watcher
Town Even-Night Cop
Town Innocent Child
Town 1-shot Jailkeeper
Town Neighbor
the 1-shot jailkeeper slot is the one i'm the least sure about but eh, just kind of brainstorming here
if you want to talk a little bit about your thought process behind designing the setup then feel free, that might be helpful