Mini 2156: Launch Mob [Game Over]

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 1.7

Ydrasse

(3): midwaybear, innocentvillager, Nosferatu

ready2rock

(2): Blair, CantLynchAPuppy

Nosferatu

(1): Battle Mage

midwaybear

(1): Dunnstral

Battle Mage

(1): ready2rock

Blair

(1): Mafia Goon

Dunnstral

(1): Ydrasse

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to launch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-08-04 23:30:00)

[Battle Mage]

that being said, nosferatu, why do you say that about dunn/blair? i didn't take anything away from their exchange personally.

Ok, why arent you voting Blair then? Is that post really the only thing you want to comment on? FWIW I basically agree with Ydrasse assessment in #159.

i dont want to get too into it without either flipping which is why i decided not to push either

You have 1 read out of the whole game, which was that either/both of Blair/Dunn were scum...and you decided not to push either. So 2 questions:

Why would you not push your only scumreads, unless you don't actually want to elim scum?

If you don't want to push them, why do you not have some more reads/do something else?

Lurky dude.

Town on the other hand, often try and form townblocs, and when successful these can be very effective.

Ok, but wouldn't scum be incentivized to buddy so that they can get into townblocks?

In theory yeah but it doesn't often happen, because scum are scared of buddying.

[Battle Mage]

This from Dunnstral is not good. No effort to engage with new content, just doubling-down on his same position from 4 pages earlier. Why not enough to vote at the time, but worth voting 4 pages later?

Spoiler:

VOTE: midwaybear
L-1

I think he looks kind of awkward here

Where?

I was thinking your strong reaction was based on him quickhammering/almost quickhammering me because he does that a lot as scum.

You acknowledging this makes your earlier arguing look weird

I don't like this. How do you

know

he's town? Because he's funny and a character?

I expect Mafi to solve the game because he's town and my plan is to lurk and take all the credit. I thought I was clear about this

I basically agree with this:

Then there's no reason to make those posts in the first place. He won't be townread for a dumbtell that he's hyper aware of. Note, I'm not townreading him for the dumbtell itself.

I largely disagree with this, although still think innocentvillager is town:

Meh the reasoning for voting BM was ok, but I do agree that the jab at Nosferatu was pretty scummy.

Okay... where's the vote then?

I don't like the reasoning for voting BM. How did you feel when he backed off you? You were the one who was interacting with the most (tbf I didn't really through the whole wall wars, too many nested quotes and I got confused) so you should have the best sense of this. There's no reason that it's necessarily scummy to back off after grilling someone for a bit, which is BM's style anyway, and it seems more likely that lurkerscum!rock just needed some easy content to pass off as analysis. Like tell me genuinely why what he described specifically could be reasonably interpreted as scum motivated with some amount of thought and confidence.

That and the Nosferatu vote seems like an incredibly superficial analysis which he seems unnaturally confident in and I don't believe that he's read your wall wars in their entirety. Neither of these feel much like a real town process.

In general I hate these kinds of lurking catchup posts that just cast shade on people for superficial reasons without mentioning any townreads. As scum I get upset when townies get into a wall war with each other and subsequently unvote each other. I get upset when town forms townblocs. It's natural for scum!me to want to cast doubt on these. The fact that this is the material he decided to include in his catchup post is particularly incriminating for me.

Does this stack up with your earlier statement that you read my quote walls, which formed the basis for a townread on me?:

Nothing, he's got 4 posts and 2 reads. don't agree that BM was uncharitable to midway, but i only skimmed that, if someone thinks this is a super important interaction please make the case

[Battle Mage]

Scumpool
CantLynchAPuppy
Dunnstral
Ydrasse
Nosferatu**

Townpool
midwaybear
ready2rock
innocentvillager
Mafia Goon

Wildcard
Blair

[Battle Mage]

I don't like this. Blair gives IV props for sheeping her, and then Ydrasse immediately follows up by also sheeping her. Ydrasse - who actually were you sheeping here, and why?

Spoiler:

@blair he did elaborate here.

You misunderstand. I wasn't mocking him for failing to explain his read.

I was praising him for sheeping my glorious read.

i sheep this

VOTE: ready2rock

i don't think that ready2rock's statement about nosferatu is really that confident though, tbf. "very combatitive" is strong wording ig but given that it's pinned on as an afterthought i'd argue that there isn't a lot of heart in it.

i think BM leans town and 176 from rock felt weird. I hate the reason for voting BM and the side dig on Nosferatu both of which I disagree with

Why do you disagree? What makes you read BM town (which it sounds like you're implying here)?

To clarify a bit, my case is that in his read of midway, especially his ISO analysis post, he presents every post and basically waves his arms and says "see? this is clearly scum!" There's almost no "this isn't too bad" or "I could see this coming from misled town, but..." and this is what I meant by uncharitable. It felt so confident for page 5, and made the fact that he completely changed course feel strange as well.

Taken alongside your original assessment, I'm not really clear here if your criticism of me is that I was being uncharitable and tunnelling, or that I was being too open-minded and fluctuating between town and scumreads? An excess of "this isn't too bad" or "I could see this coming from misled town" isn't conducive to putting somebody under pressure. The fact I never voted for Midway should be sufficient demonstration that I wasn't certain he was scum at any stage, so it isn't accurate to suggest I completely changed course.

I’m super unsure on what Dunn is trying to accomplish with 192 and 194. Did he think midway was L-1? Does he think that his case from half the game ago is actually compelling enough to just recycle as reason to put him at this supposed L-1? I kinda want to say that this is too careless to come from scum. Been wrong on that before, but I'll go with that for now

Less careless; more lazy. Lazy scum is a thing.

Then there's no reason to make those posts in the first place. He won't be townread for a dumbtell that he's hyper aware of. Note, I'm not townreading him for the dumbtell itself.

I think there’s not a real reason to make a post like this D1. Maybe later if solving the setup becomes relevan/we get more info on the setup, but not this early. At the same time I agree with others that it doesn't point in either direction towards alignment

I think the consensus is that the series of posts was town-indicative. Does this mean you disagree with others? Or was this a mistake?

Spoiler:

OK so bear with me, trying to help people understand what I'm talking about here

Please read the post for yourself and point out if you feel I'm misrepresenting or missing a time he did it here, but what I'm doing is trying to hone in on the places in the iso analysis where BM makes a "ruling" on whether something midway did is town or scum indicative. Line break indicates talking about a new post in the ISO

some players are just like this. This isn't consistent however...

Out of nowhere, a bit of banter about being scum. Then an awkward segue "aaaaanyways..."

sounds like an informed minority[...]scummy answers to the 4 questions.

which I think is slightly scum-indicative, as town are often more liberal with their allegiances.

In the last game I played with Midway, this same approach was used, and the same conversation ensued about why it was done. Why ask the question if he already knows the answer? Just playing dumb.

Non-serious question misleadingly framed as a serious one.

Why do you scumread me?

nuff said.

Probably about the time scum might consider this at risk of looking conspicuous. Midway needs to make another vote and wants to make it sound serious so he looks like he is progressing the game. More marks for presentation than substance.

And it's all "slight scummy" "here's why this has scum motivations" "misleading" "informed minority" "playing dumb" "nuff said"

Only one place (at the very beginning) does he give any form of a benefit of the doubt, then immediately undercuts it

I guess I'm not seeing what the town reasoning is for painting someone as this scummy with this much confidence this early in the game, and on top of that, being willing to throw away this supposed conviction based off basically 1 post from someone else

This is why I'd still like to know from BM when the read on midway changed, if at all

I don't think there's anything new here, so my previous response probably covers it. The town reasoning is obvious - I'm scumhunting. Perhaps it would be helpful for you to consider what the scum reasoning would be? Specifically why it makes more sense for BM-scum than BM-town?

[Battle Mage]

VOTE: Ready2rock

Was feeling cute, might unvote later.

Spoiler:

Probably not, though. The scummy entrance and strong associatives make this an excellent wagon.

Oh, also:

FoS: Mafia Goon

Blair, how much do you love me? on a scale of 1-10

I like these posts from redrock. Are you misgooned often?

Not fully usually, though it has happened. Mostly something I say in the first couple posts gets a big wagon formed on me early, and that's been as both town and scum

@IV: What's your read on BM and why? You say you disagree with my case, but you never explained.

Blair has Schrodinger's Case, where she’s presented this incredible genius read for the last page or two, but we haven't opened the box so you’ll never know if her case was ever actually there or not

In fairness, I called out your first post in this game too.

@IV: What's your read on BM and why? You say you disagree with my case, but you never explained.

I think this is consistent with town!BM tunneling to get reads on that slot, and not nearly as consistent with whatever scum motivation you didn't explain other than just mentioning it was "strange" and you didn't see town motivation

It kind of feels disingenuous that you are not able to see past this surface level while also not giving a clear reason WHY scum!BM is more motivated to do this, I'm sure you know that town can can tunnel with seemingly a lot of confidence and back off when they have gotten a better read on the slot. And I don't like that you don't like a lot of things by just casting shade and calling things weird or strange without much actual alignment analysis, this feels more scum than town motivated for reasons I've stated.

This is a very good pro-town assessment.

@IV: What's your read on BM and why? You say you disagree with my case, but you never explained.

I think this is consistent with town!BM tunneling to get reads on that slot, and not nearly as consistent with whatever scum motivation you didn't explain other than just mentioning it was "strange" and you didn't see town motivation

It kind of feels disingenuous that you are not able to see past this surface level while also not giving a clear reason WHY scum!BM is more motivated to do this, I'm sure you know that town can can tunnel with seemingly a lot of confidence and back off when they have gotten a better read on the slot. And I don't like that you don't like a lot of things by just casting shade and calling things weird or strange without much actual alignment analysis, this feels more scum than town motivated for reasons I've stated.

So it sounds like the TR of BM comes from believing
a) Tunneling is more likely to come from town than scum
b) Projecting overly confident reads is more likely to come from town than scum

I'm not certain that I fully buy either of those, for (b) especially I think it makes it easier to fall back on no matter what someone flips, now regardless on whether BM was right or wrong about midway he can point to interactions and say that he had a point and is trustworthy for town to listen to.

So in summary, I think scum!BM would be in a position to want to come out of the gate projecting scumhunting and #content, while also not really needing to commit to it by backing off the push at the first opportunity of something else.

Spoiler:

You obviously haven't seen me as scum much?

I'm flattered by this! Actually though, my scumgame is generally just lurking and doing the bare minimum, or if I'm really motivated, low-key pushing things but without putting myself in the spotlight.

Your hypothesis is possible, but I don't think it is objectively more likely than me just being genuinely scumhunting. Scum are generally less likely to want to attack a bunch of people simultaneously on Day 1, given how fickle and OMGUSy players can be - it's a bit kamikaze. And being inconsistent is generally something that scum try to avoid. because it's an easy thing for town to latch onto and build momentum against scum. Which is why I look at people lurking in the shadows, or at least avoiding making waves, and diehard consistency as good scumtells. Also people giving lots of opinions and actually reading are generally townie (you being a case in point), and people not wanting to give much away are generally scummy (i.e. Nosferatu).

In short, it feels like you're basically calling me out for playing in a strong pro-town way, and leaping to the conclusion that I am probably doing it as scum trying to look town.
On that basis, I suspect I could have done virtually anything else and also been scumread by you for it. If I had tunnel-visioned Midway and NOT "backed off" as you put it, you would have scumread me for being uncharitable. If, rather than abandoning a Midway push with some momentum to push a listless Nosferatu wagon, I'd moved to a hot wagon with a prospect of an elim, you'd have considered me opportunistic. If I hadn't had a back-and-forth with Midway at all, you'd have levelled the criticism that I wasn't scumhunting.

Maybe you could set out what you consider town-indicative behaviour, given you are more focussed on me than players who are actually scummy?

I kinda want to say that this is too careless to come from scum. Been wrong on that before, but I'll go with that for now

With Dunnstral, being lazy as scum is definitely something he would do. I don't think you should let someone free from suspicion just because they seem to be too scummy to be scum.

Oh for sure, that's what I meant when I said I've been wrong on it before, but I think on its own it's not enough for me to pin scummy motivation on, but I think it'll be interesting to see where it fits within a larger ISO as the game goes on. Worth noting and keeping an eye on

Baffled by this.

[Battle Mage]

Blair has Schrodinger's Case, where she’s presented this incredible genius read for the last page or two, but we haven't opened the box so you’ll never know if her case was ever actually there or not

hmm this is what I was thinking too. I'm not really feeling the r2r wagon so much.

i don’t wanna leave everyone hanging today so:

i’m asking you midway this moreso than anyone else but are you not feeling the r2r wagon because of the ~hidden read? i’m referencing out last game together again but we were in a situation where someone had a scumread that they didn’t out for several pages and it ended up being a towny player in the end. the way you wrote this kind of implies that your dislike of the r2r wagon is tied to blair’s lack of outing the case.

also since i’m quoting you: my vote wasn’t really hedging. i disagreed with a portion of the case against r2r and i would rather make that apparent. i can agree with something enough tho that its not the end of the world fmpov to have one thing that i’m at odds with

I like this - no real reason for scum to bandwagon whilst also undermining the case and making it less likely to result in a miselim.

boring is just my personality i am sorry (and i haven't been giving games as much attention as i should have/could have this week)

also ngl reading this game feels like i'm looking at a blob of "meh" with a few light trs (hi inno, hi blair) thrown in there which makes parsing through it all feel like my brain is turning into goo. i don't know what that means mafia is doing other than either blending in or just... not playing right now which means we're all kind of half-heartedly pointing fingers at each other hoping something sticks.

that sentiment implicates nosferatu, dunn and r2r if going off of like, strictly numbers. of them i like nosferatu the most bc of that dunn/blair thing. i think r2r isn't look the best but i vibed with some of their points regarding bm thus the unvote. i don't think it's foolproof like they are town 100% of the time but i can follow their logic without having to twist and reach for it so i don't wanna vote them rn

i think i just want to vote dunn and see like. anything.

VOTE: dunnstral

VOTE: ydrasse

High partner equity in Nosferatu-Dunnstral?

[Battle Mage]

Townblock assemble!

VOTE: Dunnstral

If he flips scum, Nosferatu tomorrow.

If he flips town, Ydrasse/Puppy tomorrow.

[Mafia Goon]

Had a busy day in the goon lair today. I'll be catching up tomorrow. Go easy on my buddy please.

[Blair]

Blair - why did you FoS R2R above?

176 reads like a wilfully bad faith push on you which he chased with a half-hearted handwave toward Nosferatu. The latter being the reason why I believe the former was "wilful" - seemed like something you would tack on the end to distract if you were conscious you had just made a bad faith push. It served no other real purpose in that post.

and what was the rationale for your comment about Innocentvillager's post becoming important later?

The wagon-hop was conspicuous. If either the unvote or new vote flip scum, I'm going to be revisiting that post. It was as much a note to remind myself as anything else.

Blair, how much do you love me? on a scale of 1-10

My love knows no bounds.

Spoiler:

8/10

Would recommend Battle Mage to a friend.

[Blair]

Townblock assemble!

VOTE: Dunnstral

If he flips scum, Nosferatu tomorrow.

If he flips town, Ydrasse/Puppy tomorrow.

There is some equity in Dunnstral/Ydrasse, as well.

But I'm picking up what you're laying down.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Nosferatu]

You have 1 read out of the whole game, which was that either/both of Blair/Dunn were scum...and you decided not to push either. So 2 questions:
Why would you not push your only scumreads, unless you don't actually want to elim scum?

If you don't want to push them, why do you not have some more reads/do something else?

lmao i had reads other than that, i just dont feel the need to share every single one as i form it

my blair/dunnstral read is associative so its meaningless to push them when neither flipped

dunnstral is probably flipping before endgame here anyway

ur leading questions suck

[Umlaut]

ready2rock was prodded.

[Ydrasse]

i don't feel great so expect more from me tomorrow, maybe.

also i've been meaning to ask this for like five games now but what in the world does partner equity actually mean.

[midwaybear]

also i've been meaning to ask this for like five games now but what in the world does partner equity actually mean.

It means that two people have an above random chance of being wolves together maybe because of a specific interaction(or lack thereof).
I'm lazy so I am going to call Battle Mage's wall town and desperately pray that he isn't scum taking advantage of heavy apathy. Dunnstral legit always plays in a pretty scummy way, but I guess that's no reason not to vote him. I need to hear from him more.

[Ydrasse]

oh. thanks! your brain can remain in one piece for now.

[Nosferatu]

It means that two people have an above random chance of being wolves together maybe because of a specific interaction(or lack thereof).

i maintain in the year or so ive been gone that "equity" is a horrible term the word literally just doesn't mean that in any sense

[Dunnstral]

Well... it's not me Ydrasse. I'm not sure why you're voting me, Blair

[ready2rock]

I'll try to keep the response to BM brief so we don't turn into walls responding to walls. I do like the responses so I will UNVOTE:

In short, you were wondering what I thought the scum motivation was, and given that I also think that midway is town, it felt like what you were doing was casting a ton of suspicion on someone (what I meant by having the scummy reads) while not actually wanting to fully follow through on it (backing off and reading as town now), so you could plant all the seeds of doubt and suspicion without actually having to commit to it. Hopefully that helps it make sense how those two things aren't in contradiction in my head.

I do also acknowledge that the there is totally town reason for the push, and your subsequent responses have made me feel better about that being the explanation, hence the unvote.

If there's something I missed feel free to let me know BM, but I'd rather not be here all night going point by point and I don't think anyone else would like that very much either

[ready2rock]

Blair: A Dunn wagon won't serve as any actual pressure, just FYI
Blair 1 page later: Oh a dunn wagon, time to hop on!

VOTE: Blair

This plus the way she was pushing the votes for me (which I pointed out earlier) makes me feel good about this

[Dunnstral]

Yes, I noticed that too

[Battle Mage]

You have 1 read out of the whole game, which was that either/both of Blair/Dunn were scum...and you decided not to push either. So 2 questions:
Why would you not push your only scumreads, unless you don't actually want to elim scum?

If you don't want to push them, why do you not have some more reads/do something else?

lmao i had reads other than that, i just dont feel the need to share every single one as i form it

my blair/dunnstral read is associative so its meaningless to push them when neither flipped

dunnstral is probably flipping before endgame here anyway

ur leading questions suck

the problem is you haven't shared any reads you're willing to commit to, and I can't see why you'd be so evasive and non-committal as town.

[Battle Mage]

I'll try to keep the response to BM brief so we don't turn into walls responding to walls. I do like the responses so I will UNVOTE:

In short, you were wondering what I thought the scum motivation was, and given that I also think that midway is town, it felt like what you were doing was casting a ton of suspicion on someone (what I meant by having the scummy reads) while not actually wanting to fully follow through on it (backing off and reading as town now), so you could plant all the seeds of doubt and suspicion without actually having to commit to it. Hopefully that helps it make sense how those two things aren't in contradiction in my head.

I do also acknowledge that the there is totally town reason for the push, and your subsequent responses have made me feel better about that being the explanation, hence the unvote.

If there's something I missed feel free to let me know BM, but I'd rather not be here all night going point by point and I don't think anyone else would like that very much either

This is fine.

Blair: A Dunn wagon won't serve as any actual pressure, just FYI
Blair 1 page later: Oh a dunn wagon, time to hop on!

VOTE: Blair

This plus the way she was pushing the votes for me (which I pointed out earlier) makes me feel good about this

I don't agree with Blair's previous vote on you, but she did give an interesting and plausible rationale.

I think the answer to the above perceived discrepancy is that this Dunn wagon isn't simply about "pressure".

You should join the Dunn wagon with me.

[Battle Mage]

Dunnstral-scum seems pretty straightforward. I have 2 recently completed games with Dunnstral-town and in both he replaced in late on, but was nonetheless assertive and proactive. In 1 this was mostly just asking questions and pushing people to explain things, in the other it was trying to lead and corral the town. In this game, in which he has been present from the start (so didn't have anything to catch up on), he has been passive and half-hearted, not challenging anybody with any conviction.

If anyone fancies some light reading, Open 784 and Newbie 2016.

[Blair]

Blair: A Dunn wagon won't serve as any actual pressure, just FYI
Blair 1 page later: Oh a dunn wagon, time to hop on!

You should definitely read those two posts again if you think they contradict each other.

(If you're just scum pouncing on believable surface-level misinterpretations, carry on)