Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Ruby Red]

Votecount 1.7

Target	Wagon
innocentvillager (L-3)	Marksman, WeyounsLastClone, Lavender, Chemical Elements, Nono
Nono (L-3)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Hiraki, WeyounsLastClone, Elements
WeyounsLastClone (L-3)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Nono, Hayasaka, Casey
spicer1209 (L-3)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman, Casey, hellbooks
hellbooks (L-4)	Hiraki, innocentvillager, Elements, Isis
Chemical Elements (L-4)	innocentvillager, hellbooks, Hayasaka, Isis
Isis (L-5)	Marksman, Chemical Elements, Elements
Lavender (L-6)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements
Casey (L-6)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements
Marksman (L-6)	Hiraki, innocentvillager
ileileile (L-6)	innocentvillager, Casey
Hiraki (L-6)	Marksman, Casey
Elements (L-6)	Casey, Hiraki
Hayasaka (L-6)	innocentvillager, hellbooks
Not Voting (3)	spicer1209, Hayasaka, ileileile

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until they drop the bomb.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Glad to see almost everyone posted thoughts. I wish I could be as coherent as some of you with your thoughts and analyses, my mind goes all places reading the different interactions and suspicions. But I'll give it a stab anyway:

Thinking town
Marksman - lot of content, and while that's not necessarily townie, I think he posts valid thoughts (although sometimes making mountains out of molehills, but that might be just my opinion ) and keep things going
Casey - Starting the game late, but brings the heat and some decent posts with interesting analysis
Chemical Elements - not to rehash the whole discussion again, but the initial posts and help with vote counts gave me a town-vibe. But slipping more towards neutral, not sure if post 101 was serious or trying to get more votes on innocent

Either way
Hellbooks - initially thought she was trying to create chaos and leaning scum, but I guess that's her way of posting. and it's funny, which always helps
Hiraki - A bit hit and miss, sometimes slightly opportunistic, but happy he understood my post that caused the stir.
Isis - started to post a lot, then a bit less (or it could have been night, not sure where she's from). Felt maybe a bit too serious from the start.
Lavender - Could be a real confused townie, but could be an excuse as well. Not sure as scum why you'd post stuff like that, but as town you could easily read the thread and see them both posting. If it was just uncertainty who to vote for I could understand, but ChemElement/Elements has been addressed even before.
Hayasaka - Maybe I don't trust her as she's voting for me, but not sure I follow her reasoning in initial posts 131 and 132
Elements - Opportunistic vote on Casey, don't get much from the other posts made

Leaning scum
Nono - Still find his posts non-coherent, and then goes V/LA
spicer1209 - with lack of posts, need something more than that initial post. Want to read his thoughts before putting actual vote in though.

I really don't know about innocentvillager anymore. Voting for just everyone still doesn't sit well with me, but actually the way he interacted after that and updated his suspicions seemed quite town.

Unvote: innocentvillager

waiting for content:

Vote: ileileile

Hope I didn't miss anyone

[innocentvillager]

Hellbooks is a strong townread but I expect her to flip scum.

wat the fack

[Isis]

I didn't use my words well. 1 townread on Hayasaka isn't a townblock. But stating a scumlean on Hayasaka accomplishes a little bit for scum if it's a long term possibility, and I don't really see what it accomplishes for town.

The most charitable interpretation is that the goal was transparency.

[Marksman]

Hellbooks is a strong townread but I expect her to flip scum.

wat the fack

Let me rephrase it:
Hellbooks has a towny tone and posts towny content, which is why I'm scumreading her. /s

[Isis]

VOTE: spicer1209
VOTE: ileileile
VOTE: Nono
This is a narrow timer and we need to get flips going. This setup is super weird and I'm trying to wrap my brain around how time needs to be managed. It's 13 days left but we don't even necessarily want to distribute them evenly among the dunks, sand in the hourglass is more valuable later when we're trying to interpret postflip associatives.

The volume of Nono's posting is what bothers me, he seems like a certain style of player that might always be this type of derpy, but is more likely to have more limited content ("content"?) on scum rands.

[innocentvillager]

where's your vote then Marky

[Isis]

Marksman can you just state whether you scumread or townread hellbooks

like you can do that, but then post memes later
don't let ketchup touch your mac & cheese or it's gross, we do have to play some mafia

[innocentvillager]

oh if /s is sarcasm it went over my head and yeah just tell us. the suspense is killing me!

[Marksman]

Wey, should I be worried your top guess for scum is someone with 1 post?

Maybe this is a playstyle difference, but I don't see how you scumlean Spicer rather than have him in the "Either way" section.

Nono only went on a 18 hour V/LA btw. Barely counts as one, unsure why they even bothered.

[Marksman]

I I townread hellbooks, alright??? She likes to be seen as polarizing so that's what I was going for.

[innocentvillager]

yeah we should just elim someone pretty soon if it's me oh well at least that gives info, i feel like ME'ing isn't as costly here as in normal games. and it doesn't matter that much anyway. time management is really important and if we just waste all our time d1 scum will just drag and coast this out

[innocentvillager]

UNVOTE: Marksman

[innocentvillager]

UNVOTE: hellbooks

[Isis]

UNVOTE: Nono If nono is on V/LA that undermines my reasoning, didn't realize.

[Chemical Elements]

UNVOTE:

should clarify that i dont think hayasaka is town tho

hellbooks dedicates a full post to discouraging a scum-threatening townblock from developing around hayasaka in a setup where she can't be killed before getting a chance to mention it.
VOTE: Hellbooks
VOTE: Chemical Elements
I agree with Chemical Elements' contributions being specifically not what's needed, and a promise of a postflip theory on villager to be presented postflip is a particularly bad look.

Come to think of it, there isn't much benefit for me to keep the theory to myself, since innocentvillager may very well not actually flip mafia. My theory was that if innocentvillager does flip mafia, elements could potentially be a partner since he didn't place innocentvillager on L-1 but placed nono on L-2 instead.

I agree with Hiraki that 23 and 31 are NAI and I would post them as scum, the good they do is maybe improving how we approach the setup, not revealing my alignment. Early as possible is the best time to make that type of post because it's pretty hard to make posts that reveal your alignment anyway, if you save it for later it's kind of an interruption on solving that matters a lot more.

[Chemical Elements]

@Wey - Why Chemical Elements for proactive town?

Mostly due to the help with vote count, and general participation. I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well, so maybe in my head helped me think of him as town.

THEY DIDN'T POST ANYTHING, WHAT ELSE COULD HE BE SUSPICIOUS OF?

If it still matters, I actually guessed that since WeyounsLastClone said most in that post, he might not be suspicious of those slots in the first place.

[Chemical Elements]

UNVOTE: Casey
VOTE: ileileile

[Nono]

sorry, reading up, tyty

[Nono]

Glad to see almost everyone posted thoughts. I wish I could be as coherent as some of you with your thoughts and analyses, my mind goes all places reading the different interactions and suspicions. But I'll give it a stab anyway:

Thinking town
Marksman - lot of content, and while that's not necessarily townie, I think he posts valid thoughts (although sometimes making mountains out of molehills, but that might be just my opinion ) and keep things going
Casey - Starting the game late, but brings the heat and some decent posts with interesting analysis
Chemical Elements - not to rehash the whole discussion again, but the initial posts and help with vote counts gave me a town-vibe. But slipping more towards neutral, not sure if post 101 was serious or trying to get more votes on innocent

Either way
Hellbooks - initially thought she was trying to create chaos and leaning scum, but I guess that's her way of posting. and it's funny, which always helps
Hiraki - A bit hit and miss, sometimes slightly opportunistic, but happy he understood my post that caused the stir.
Isis - started to post a lot, then a bit less (or it could have been night, not sure where she's from). Felt maybe a bit too serious from the start.
Lavender - Could be a real confused townie, but could be an excuse as well. Not sure as scum why you'd post stuff like that, but as town you could easily read the thread and see them both posting. If it was just uncertainty who to vote for I could understand, but ChemElement/Elements has been addressed even before.
Hayasaka - Maybe I don't trust her as she's voting for me, but not sure I follow her reasoning in initial posts 131 and 132
Elements - Opportunistic vote on Casey, don't get much from the other posts made

Leaning scum
Nono - Still find his posts non-coherent, and then goes V/LA
spicer1209 - with lack of posts, need something more than that initial post. Want to read his thoughts before putting actual vote in though.

I really don't know about innocentvillager anymore. Voting for just everyone still doesn't sit well with me, but actually the way he interacted after that and updated his suspicions seemed quite town.

Unvote: innocentvillager

waiting for content:

Vote: ileileile

Hope I didn't miss anyone

VOTE: spicer1209
VOTE: ileileile
VOTE: Nono
This is a narrow timer and we need to get flips going. This setup is super weird and I'm trying to wrap my brain around how time needs to be managed. It's 13 days left but we don't even necessarily want to distribute them evenly among the dunks, sand in the hourglass is more valuable later when we're trying to interpret postflip associatives.

The volume of Nono's posting is what bothers me, he seems like a certain style of player that might always be this type of derpy, but is more likely to have more limited content ("content"?) on scum rands.

xD
not derpy, well, maybe a little,, y'all just jelly

[Nono]

villager/clone can be a thing be on first glance, need more time
marksie, smarter than he looks, but not smart enough kek
green, maybe

[Nono]

y'all wanna kill me? kk I wanna hammer.
selfish? idk. more like petty, almost never get to hammer
logic is king, y'all can fight without me

VOTE: Vote: Hammer Wolf Clone dying on this tree
gn everyone

[Nono]

Wey, should I be worried your top guess for scum is someone with 1 post?

Maybe this is a playstyle difference, but I don't see how you scumlean Spicer rather than have him in the "Either way" section.

Nono only went on a 18 hour V/LA btw. Barely counts as one, unsure why they even bothered.

xD

~kbye~

[WeyounsLastClone]

Wey, should I be worried your top guess for scum is someone with 1 post?

Maybe this is a playstyle difference, but I don't see how you scumlean Spicer rather than have him in the "Either way" section.

Nono only went on a 18 hour V/LA btw. Barely counts as one, unsure why they even bothered.

It's that his only post is 'who should I vote for' without any commitment, input, or indication that he's reading up. Feels like a convenient set-up to bus

[Marksman]

visible confusion

Bus who?