Newbie 2019 | Game Over!

[ItalianoVD]

I think it's Red or Mini. scum!shellyc has nothing to gain from that vote.

Sure they do. It helps towards their wincon and would in fact get the gamestate to Lylo. I'd actually rather do that, so I may eventually vote for myself again.

[T-Bone]

No, think it through. Does it get her to a LimLo state that she could then win?

[ItalianoVD]

I think that you should unvote because you're at E-1. Let's wait for T-Bone to make his case, which he previously indicated would be on me, then we can make a decision.

This is a super interesting reaction. Hmm.

Can you elaborate? To be honest I don't see scum of any experience level TRYING to stop a townie from getting eliminated. If Redados is scum he knows I am not. Logically it doesn't make sense for him to not vote for me or to make it seem like he is concerned or hesitant about getting me eliminated.

[T-Bone]

Eliminating a townie today does not help you if you turn around and get yourself eliminated tomorrow.

[ItalianoVD]

No, think it through. Does it get her to a LimLo state that she could then win?

In this instance sure, because you townread her and mini hasn't been confident with her reads and decisions.

[T-Bone]

Oh no, scum!shelly doesn't want me anywhere near the Final 3. The only player that wants that is scum!Italiano

[T-Bone]

Actually scum!Red might want that. I'll come up with a list.

[ItalianoVD]

Are you planning on voting Red today? Or Mini?

[ItalianoVD]

Let’s think about it. This is for everyone.

One of us is scum. What is the logical play for scum at this point? They’ve lost their partner and there has already been 1 miselimination. They are feeling the pressure. Townies not so much. We have 1 miselimination left before Lylo.

The ideal scenario would be to get another miselimination which helps their wincon and doing so with as little attention on them as possible.

I know I’m probably missing it, but I don’t see another scenario that makes sense to me.

[ItalianoVD]

Let’s also give scenarios of what each of us would do with a given role.

As town, I would be re-reading and re-analyzing everything searching for scum, but if my elimination could help find scum, I would 100% be down with that as is the case here.
As scum, I would wait for whatever case is the best and ride that wagon. Also this game would have gone a lot different for me if I was scum. I’m not great at it.

[Redados]

Ok. So my brain says that Italiano is the most likely scum, and my gut says it's T-Bone.

If I were scum, I would want to mislim T-Bone today because he has cast suspicion on me and has indicated that he would vote for me in Lylo.
As town, given how he's acting, I think that if we were to go to LyLo, T-Bone might mislim me and then we lose.
Not wanting to get limmed in Lylo is NAI, I think.
I am town and I am looking for the scum. I'm a little lost. Whoever is scum is doing a good job.

I'm going to do a vote analysis.

Italiano:
Had vote on Redados for a long time. From my perspective wrong but from town's perspective: NAI
Was on Genius Wagon (serious wagon): wrong
Was on ShellyC Wagon(serious wagon): NAI
Hammer Word (serious wagon): correct
Was on Porkens Wagon (serious wagon): wrong
Self-voted: NAI
Is voting for ShellyC: NAI

Redados:
Had vote on GeniusGamer (RVS): wrong
Had vote on ShellyC (RVS): NAI
Had vote on T-Bone (RVS): NAI
Had vote on ItalianoVD (no wagon): NAI
Had vote on NobleNoob (no wagon): wrong
Was on ShellyC wagon (serious wagon): NAI
Switched wagon to Words321: correct
Hammered Porkens: wrong

MiniMegabyte:
Had vote on Porkens (RVS): wrong
Had vote on ShellyC (no wagon): NAI
Was on GeniusGamer wagon (serious wagon): wrong

ShellyC:
Had vote on T-Bone (RVS): NAI
Had vote on MiniMegabyte (no wagon): NAI
Had vote on Micc (no wagon): correct
Had vote on GeniusGamer (serious wagon): wrong
Had vote on Word321 (serious wagon): correct
Had vote on ItalianoVD (no wagon): NAI
Was on Porkens wagon (serious wagon): wrong
Is voting for ItalianoVD (serious wagon): NAI

T-Bone:
Had vote on Micc/Word (serious wagon): correct
Had ghost vote on Porkens (serious wagon): wrong

My lunch break is ending so I can't come to any conclusions from this but I'll be back later for that

[Redados]

My lunch break is ending so I can't come to any conclusions from this but I'll be back later for that

So I have an addendum; re-reading this I didn't give myself enough credit for leading the wrong wagon on N0bleNoob, even though I didn't vote. We'll call this a ghost vote.

If we narrow it down to serious wagons only, we get the following:

ItalianoVD:

2 wrong wagons

,

1 correct wagon

, 1 NAI

Redados:

2 wrong wagons

,

1 correct wagon

, 1 NAI

MiniMegabyte:

1 wrong wagon

ShellyC:

2 wrong wagons

,

1 correct wagon

, 1 NAI

T-Bone:

1 wrong wagon

,

1 correct wagon

T-Bone looks best here. Italiano, Shelly, and I have been equally incorrect when hopping on wagons of people which we now know the alignment of. Mini has not been on a lot of wagons.

I was hoping that a clearer picture would be emerging but I don't see it. T-Bone says he is good enough to wagon Micc/Word even if he is scum, but says that Shelly and Italiano have both towntold enough to clear them. He says that I am good enough to hammer Word, but I have not towntold, and that is why he suspects me. To that I would say: I think that you are giving me too much credit and not enough credit to Italiano.

ItalianoVD, how much mafia have you played offsite?

I’ve played the wolf game version of mafia on a boxing forum called WeBL since 2006. This style and version is very different from what I’m used to, but the deduction, analysis, tells, etc is the same since it’s the same game really. I’m still trying to get the hang of this style and all the thousand terms and abbreviations.

Italiano has been playing a while. I have not played this game on a forum since 2012ish when I was significantly younger. This is my first foray into forum mafia and I feel strong

because

I am not scum. If I were scum, I would be significantly less confident here.

Italiano still feels towny to me though. Italiano, could you help me read some games of yours on WeBL? I made an account but I can't find any werewolf games.

Honestly, I feel like I could make a case in my head for any of you four to be scum. I am feeling a bit lost.

[ItalianoVD]

@Redados: the site url is webl.vivi.com so not sure if you went there.

It’s a very antiquated forum, but here’s the steps...

Create a gym. Doesn’t matter what it’s called, just so that you can read the forums.

Once you do that I will link you to two games. One where I am wolf and the other where I am villager.

[ItalianoVD]

@T-Bone: What did you mean by “the only player that wants that is scum!italiano” in 1055 I wasn’t sure what you were referring to.

[Redados]

@Redados: the site url is webl.vivi.com so not sure if you went there.

It’s a very antiquated forum, but here’s the steps...

Create a gym. Doesn’t matter what it’s called, just so that you can read the forums.

Once you do that I will link you to two games. One where I am wolf and the other where I am villager.

I made an account and made a gym. Please link your most recent scum game and most recent town game please

[ItalianoVD]

Cool, cool. It’s a major read so prepare, lol.

Wolf

https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185615
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185620
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185624 This is where I got lynched by the village.

Villager

https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185425
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185439
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185445
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185449
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185450
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185456
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185462
https://webl.vivi.com/cgi-bin/Forum.fpl ... _id=185463

[shellyc]

But this is interesting. Shelly, you were quick to vote for me, without even a hesitation and without using actual logic. I actually wanted to vote for myself to see the town's reactions and you ma'am, your reaction was less than ideal. Your reaction was what I was looking for, not you exactly, but your reaction. It didn't matter who it came from, it was the response I assumed would come from scum. So with all that said.

"The day can be over like right now."
Italiano. You publicly told town to eliminate you. As a townie, I DID THINK ABOUT IT LOGICALLY. Didn't you read my paragraph stating clearly the reasoning why you are scum?
From my perspective, voting for you would get rid of what I believe to me the last remaining scum. From a partnership analysis perspective outlined in 3 of my previous posts, I believe you to be scum. From a PoE perspective, you are scum. From Porkens' (town) perspective and the interactions that stemmed from it, you look like scum a LOT to me. Why would any townie self-vote?

Isn't town's win condition to eliminate the scum? I don't understand why that is a scum response.

[ItalianoVD]

I know I’m town and I know the scum, whoever they are, knows I’m town so for reasons I’ve already stated if a person votes for me too easily my antennas go up. And I didn’t disregard your reasons for thinking I’m scum, it’s fair.

You also seem to forget the gamestate. As the second piece of a death pact, I want to honor my commitment. Again I have nothing to hide and if my elimination gets scum then I have no issue with it. Something you will eventually know about me the more games we play together or more games you read is that I am okay with getting eliminated IF and the keyword is IF it makes sense. You may see it in the games you read from WeBL that regardless of my alignment I will more often than not accept my fate without fighting IF it makes sense and I feel that my team can win. If my team can’t win, I will still accept my fate as no amount of fighting will change it. In this case I feel that even with my elimination town can still win. What scum would say that? Come on.

If you feel I am scum than vote for me. Me flipping town will ease the towns suspicions and maybe it will lead the town to get the actual scum. I’m probably wrong as I was with Porkens, but at this point I’m just as lost as you and willing to do something

[T-Bone]

Can we drop the dumb death pact? Sheesh.

[T-Bone]

It's Minimegabyte by the way. Book it.

[shellyc]

It's Minimegabyte by the way. Book it.

1. So you decide to forgo the death pact?
2. Didn't you state before your preferred lynchpool was Porkens / Redados on d2? Why MiniMegabyte all of a sudden?

[shellyc]

You also seem to forget the gamestate. As the second piece of a death pact, I want to honor my commitment. Again I have nothing to hide and if my elimination gets scum then I have no issue with it. Something you will eventually know about me the more games we play together or more games you read is that I am okay with getting eliminated IF and the keyword is IF it makes sense. You may see it in the games you read from WeBL that regardless of my alignment I will more often than not accept my fate without fighting IF it makes sense and I feel that my team can win. If my team can’t win, I will still accept my fate as no amount of fighting will change it. In this case I feel that even with my elimination town can still win. What scum would say that? Come on.

If you decide to uphold the death pact, why would you stop its execution, which involves voting you?

[MiniMegabyte]

Sorry for not posting till now I haven’t had power all day which means no internet. What makes you think I’m scum all of a sudden Tbone?

[shellyc]

Has nobody posted here for 7 hours

[ItalianoVD]

I’ve done as much analyzing as I can do. Apparently we cannot agree on who to eliminate.

@Shellyc: you’re right. I don’t know. I can’t give an answer that makes real sense. I let TBone and Red talk me out of it. I will vote for myself again, but no one wants to pull the trigger, so this day will be prolonged and boring again. And maybe my vote on you is wrong, maybe not. I’m kinda lost. I did say I’d be voting for Red, but him not hammering me and being reluctant that I be at L1 made me question and rethink that slot again, which is why I am voting you right now. Mini hasn’t given her thoughts yet. We’re at somewhat of a standstill.

Listen I will do a final analysis and give you my final thoughts and then I will layeth the smacketh down on myself and we can move on. Maybe I can count on Mini to hammer me since TBone and Red don’t want to do it.