Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Raya36]

My PoE right now is
A50, Lavender, Hiraki, Nono, maybe Casey but I do TR her and maybe Chem although I do have a TR there as well.

[Raya36]

raya why is that scummy from marksman? Why is scum!marksman more likely to openly admit I did something towny but still state that I’m in his pool, it kind of looks inconsistent

He could’ve easily just not said it was towny

I found the inconsistency scummy but you're right that it makes no sense coming from scum if it's just gonna obviously make him look bad

[Raya36]

My PoE right now is
A50, Lavender, Hiraki, Nono, maybe Casey but I do TR her and maybe Chem although I do have a TR there as well.

Inno and Isis I strongly town read and I guess marksman doesnt make as much sense as I initially thought.

I wanna say Nono is scum and the next best flip but at the same time their acting too openly scummy on my opinion. Rushing dunks and begging for a hammer etc

[Raya36]

Definitely want to dunk within [A50, Hiraki, Lavender, Nono]

[Almost50]

VOTE: Nono
VOTE: Chemical

Nono's responses are weird and do not even relate to game. "I saw a hammer and I took it" doesn't answer my question at all.

Chemical for being on all dunks and all leading wagons. Looks more concerned of getting dunks than the precision of said dunks.

In short, bith of then seem to be pushing the game towards a speedy end without giving us the chance to gauge the reaction of someone being put @ D-1 or reevaluating after a flip

[Chemical Elements]

VOTE: Nono
VOTE: Chemical

Nono's responses are weird and do not even relate to game. "I saw a hammer and I took it" doesn't answer my question at all.

Chemical for being on all dunks and all leading wagons. Looks more concerned of getting dunks than the precision of said dunks.

In short, bith of then seem to be pushing the game towards a speedy end without giving us the chance to gauge the reaction of someone being put @ D-1 or reevaluating after a flip

The game ends whether or not we dunk anyone. We could decide to not dunk anyone until the game ends and lose. Is that what you are suggesting we do?

[Almost50]

Are you playing dumb? I repeatedly said we bloody dunk then REEVALUATE. We don't just dunk because we need/can. Just because you are relatively safe sitting at the bottom of the VC with least votes doesn't mean you can win this (assuming you're town) because if 2 of the 3 right above you or 3 out the 5 above you are scum they still win when they gain parity. You can still be alive and lose, you know. USE YOUR HEAD. Like, why are you voting me, Lav, Raya and Casey right now? Do you have a case on any of us? Who would you rather dunk between the 4 of us? What would a red/green flip from any of these slot tell you about the alignment of the others (others as in the rest of the living players)? What did you learn from the green flips of the last 2 dunks?? How come they didn't change your reads AT ALL (given that you didn't vote anyone new or unvote the people you've been voting forever)?

CAN YOU PLEASE ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS ONE BY ONE?

[Isis]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Lavender
It's probably a good time to vote one person at a time because of chainhammering?
I've played with Lavender before and I know she doesn't say a ton sometimes, but I think I remember getting more evidence of help in the search for scum before.
I am townreading Marksman, Raya, and Nono more than I'm scumreading much of anyone.

oops
VOTE: villager
same marksman, VOTE: clone

let me hammer please
kbai

This is doesn't look like a partner post at all. Scum!Nono would think of Clone's dunk as likely because he's guilty and would expect he wouldn't actually get to dunk. Like.. it's a cognitive zigzag.

[Isis]

Monkey, turn the speakers down from 11. We have 7/14 days left and 10/14 players alive. Voting four players isn't ridiculous.

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Lav

I am willing to sheep Isis for now. I have never seen lav's scum game, and I do acknowledge she's a low poster all the time though but is this flips Town I swear I'm tunneling CE for the rest of the game. If it flips scum though I'll be sheeping him for the rest of the game.

[Almost50]

Btw, I checked back and it looked like Wey was going down anyway. It probably would have been risky for Nono not to hop on it. I mean, she could have waited for the hammer (as her chosen troll) but it wouldn't have earned her much Towncred. Worthy of note that she put him @D-2 and CE put him @D-1 , but CE appears as the first voter on me, Lav and Raya now, so those votes were static for a long time despite having had multiple flips since then. That's why I want answers from him to my questions

[Chemical Elements]

Are you playing dumb? I repeatedly said we bloody dunk then REEVALUATE. We don't just dunk because we need/can. Just because you are relatively safe sitting at the bottom of the VC with least votes doesn't mean you can win this (assuming you're town) because if 2 of the 3 right above you or 3 out the 5 above you are scum they still win when they gain parity. You can still be alive and lose, you know. USE YOUR HEAD. Like, why are you voting me, Lav, Raya and Casey right now? Do you have a case on any of us? Who would you rather dunk between the 4 of us? What would a red/green flip from any of these slot tell you about the alignment of the others (others as in the rest of the living players)? What did you learn from the green flips of the last 2 dunks?? How come they didn't change your reads AT ALL (given that you didn't vote anyone new or unvote the people you've been voting forever)?

CAN YOU PLEASE ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS ONE BY ONE?

In my opinion, not being on top of the votecount just means that I am a little more likely to win if my position does not change. I would like to point out that the votecount order is not that static.

Below are some answers to some Questions Almost50 Asked (QAA).

Chemical Element's answers to QAA

"why are you voting me, Lav, Raya and Casey right now? Do you have a case on any of us?"
My case against all that I am voting for except Casey is that none of you voted for WeyounsLastClone. Casey's case is that she mentioned that 1 out of 4 is not bad when referring to your votes, suggesting she might have known WeyounsLastClone was part of the mafia all along.

"Who would you rather dunk between the 4 of us?"
Between the four of you, I would rather dunk all.

"What would a red/green flip from any of these slot tell you about the alignment of the others (others as in the rest of the living players)?"
I believe that all three scum are those that I am voting for and Hiraki, which, until now, I did not notice I am not voting for, so if three of you flip green, I will have to reevaluate my hypothesis.

"What did you learn from the green flips of the last 2 dunks?? How come they didn't change your reads AT ALL (given that you didn't vote anyone new or unvote the people you've been voting forever)?"
I have learned nothing from those two green flips. It has neither disproved nor proved my hypothesis.

VOTE: Hiraki

I'll be having my dinner now, so expect to wait for some time before I reply any of your other posts.

[innocentvillager]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Lav

I am willing to sheep Isis for now. I have never seen lav's scum game, and I do acknowledge she's a low poster all the time though but is this flips Town I swear I'm tunneling CE for the rest of the game. If it flips scum though I'll be sheeping him for the rest of the game.

...why would you want to do that?

I’m worried you’re justifying your eventual push on CE with this

[Almost50]

@IV: I was ALREADY VOTING CE before that. I don't/didn't need a justification. Just look at his answer above. "I would rather dunk all four" coupled with "if 3 of them flip green then I will reconsider". Do you realize that 3 green flips takes us down to a 4-3 situation already? And he learnt nothing from the flips he was on? Why dunk someone you won't even gain any knowledge from their flip?

[Chemical Elements]

@IV: I was ALREADY VOTING CE before that. I don't/didn't need a justification. Just look at his answer above. "I would rather dunk all four" coupled with "if 3 of them flip green then I will reconsider". Do you realize that 3 green flips takes us down to a 4-3 situation already? And he learnt nothing from the flips he was on? Why dunk someone you won't even gain any knowledge from their flip?

Because not dunking anyone guarantees a loss.

[innocentvillager]

Null: Chemical Elements

downgrading my townread here.

[innocentvillager]

i kind of hate how ive been in agreement with every single one of the dunks that happened to go through

But I have been feeling strictly less good about each dunk D1->D4 (prehammer). And I'll probably feel worse about today's dunk

[Chemical Elements]

After thinking about the information that may be gained from each flip, I think Hiraki would be the optimal dunk as if they flip mafia, I can clear Almost50, allowing us to skip that dunk and go dunking the rest that were off WeyounsLastClone's wagon and Casey. If I am right, we win the game. If I am wrong, we end up in a 2 mafia to 3 town scenario, but I don't think we will get there.

[Ruby Red]

Votecount 5.1

Target	Wagon
Lavender (L-2)	Chemical Elements, Hiraki, Isis, Almost50
Almost50 (L-3)	Chemical Elements, Nono, Raya36
Raya36 (L-3)	Chemical Elements, Marksman, Casey
Hiraki (L-3)	Marksman, Casey, Chemical Elements
Nono (L-4)	Hiraki, Raya36
Chemical Elements (L-4)	Hiraki, Marksman
innocentvillager (L-4)	Lavender, Nono
Casey (L-5)	Chemical Elements
Marksman (L-5)	Hiraki
Not Voting (1)	innocentvillager

With 10 alive, it's 6 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-17 08:18:59) until I discard my human form for a far superior one.

[Hiraki]

If you think CE is town, you have to also explain why you think his current theory is even slightly correct and not ignoring 90% of the game. Thanks.

[Casey]

I don't know any more.

VOTE: Unvote: Raya
VOTE: Chemical Elements
VOTE: innocentvillager
VOTE: Isis

Literally just shots in the dark at this point.

[Casey]

Let's just go completely opposite day.

VOTE: Unvote: Hiraki
VOTE: Marksman
VOTE: Nono

[Casey]

Chemical Elements / Isis / Marksman is my guess now.

[Casey]

Actually I kind of like that team.

VOTE: Unvote: Innocent villager
VOTE: Unvote: No-no

[innocentvillager]

you realize you have like a 1.2% chance at guessing the scumteam right lol