Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Hiraki]

Unvote: Lavender

[Casey]

you realize you have like a 1.2% chance at guessing the scumteam right lol

I don't realize that but thanks for the arbitrary numbers.

[Hiraki]

Yeah, no need to berate here IV. Casey still flips town here. It's time for some red dunks.

[Raya36]

Are you playing dumb? I repeatedly said we bloody dunk then REEVALUATE. We don't just dunk because we need/can. Just because you are relatively safe sitting at the bottom of the VC with least votes doesn't mean you can win this (assuming you're town) because if 2 of the 3 right above you or 3 out the 5 above you are scum they still win when they gain parity. You can still be alive and lose, you know. USE YOUR HEAD. Like, why are you voting me, Lav, Raya and Casey right now? Do you have a case on any of us? Who would you rather dunk between the 4 of us? What would a red/green flip from any of these slot tell you about the alignment of the others (others as in the rest of the living players)? What did you learn from the green flips of the last 2 dunks?? How come they didn't change your reads AT ALL (given that you didn't vote anyone new or unvote the people you've been voting forever)?

CAN YOU PLEASE ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS ONE BY ONE?

In my opinion, not being on top of the votecount just means that I am a little more likely to win if my position does not change. I would like to point out that the votecount order is not that static.

Below are some answers to some Questions Almost50 Asked (QAA).

Chemical Element's answers to QAA

"why are you voting me, Lav, Raya and Casey right now? Do you have a case on any of us?"
My case against all that I am voting for except Casey is that none of you voted for WeyounsLastClone. Casey's case is that she mentioned that 1 out of 4 is not bad when referring to your votes, suggesting she might have known WeyounsLastClone was part of the mafia all along.

"Who would you rather dunk between the 4 of us?"
Between the four of you, I would rather dunk all.

"What would a red/green flip from any of these slot tell you about the alignment of the others (others as in the rest of the living players)?"
I believe that all three scum are those that I am voting for and Hiraki, which, until now, I did not notice I am not voting for, so if three of you flip green, I will have to reevaluate my hypothesis.

"What did you learn from the green flips of the last 2 dunks?? How come they didn't change your reads AT ALL (given that you didn't vote anyone new or unvote the people you've been voting forever)?"
I have learned nothing from those two green flips. It has neither disproved nor proved my hypothesis.

VOTE: Hiraki

I'll be having my dinner now, so expect to wait for some time before I reply any of your other posts.

I was liking this until I got a nice bit of paranoia thinking maybe Chem knows that all scum bussed Wey and is pushing for those not on the wagon to be dunked. I mean it makes no sense to me to think that all scum are off the wagon. Right?

[Raya36]

UNVOTE: A50
VOTE: Chem
VOTE: Hiraki

[Hiraki]

chem and i literally cannot be scum together lol

[innocentvillager]

huh?? Not berating just pointing it out... I didn’t mean for it to come off mean or insulting? Sorry if it did pls let’s be friendly

[Hiraki]

Is it really 1.2%?

[Almost50]

I can support a CE dunk

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Chemical

L-1

[Almost50]

Is it really 1.2%?

It is, but only if you are picking 3 slots at random

[innocentvillager]

yeah but the chance doesn’t really go up that much in mafia. They’ve done stats on this stuff, how almost everyone overestimates their ability to scumhunt

[Raya36]

chem and i literally cannot be scum together lol

I don't do pre-flip partner analysis. I think you both have a good chance of being scum so I voted both of you. On a red flip of one of you I'd consider unvoting the other

[Hiraki]

good, hopefully we can see this to the end together then

[Raya36]

If you're town I hope so too

[Chemical Elements]

If I were scum, I probably wouldn't be so supportive of any dunks. It is from this that I conclude that scum is unlikely to have bused WeyounsLastClone and were probably all off the wagon. If the majority decides to dunk me, the plan I laid out would no longer succeed. It is thus, assuming I am getting dunked soon, I give my final advice, which is to prioritise the players who were off the wagon and were, for no good reason, against dunking those who were not on the wagon.

[Raya36]

But in this game if someone is highly voted it's very likely they're going down anyway. So I could easily see scum knowing that and all deciding to bus for town cred

[Chemical Elements]

But in this game if someone is highly voted it's very likely they're going down anyway. So I could easily see scum knowing that and all deciding to bus for town cred

I actually agree with that.

UNVOTE:

Now I am going to continue to read what I missed and see if I spot anything.

[Chemical Elements]

I was responding to Isis' 645 in the first quote. The second was also @Isis but could as well be directed at everyone.

In a Mafia game, you wait to see a flip, analyze and then decide where to vote next. In darts you just shoot and then shoot again hoping you hit the bullseye. The first dart has no bearing on your second, and neither has a bearing on your third shot, and that's what people seem to be doing. (Except for IV, I'd give him that)

Also, hello again; Raya

I'm having my doubts on how much we can analyse based on the flips. Since you came up with the suggestion, do you have any ideas?

[Hiraki]

It is ironic you asked that question yet you have no opinion on the last three lynches other than continue your plan.

[Hiraki]

*dunks

oopsie

[Chemical Elements]

It is ironic you asked that question yet you have no opinion on the last three lynches other than continue your plan.

I'm asking that question because I have no opinion on the last three dunks.

Since my plan was contigent on the idea that the mafia wouldn't support the dunk of their own teammate, now that Raya36 has pointed out that that may not be the case, I don't have a plan.

[Hiraki]

And we're now at Page 34 of the game and you are currently D-1 and your response is I don't have a plan? After I told you your plan was useless and nonsensical on page something?

[Marksman]

Chemical Elements / Isis / Marksman is my guess now.

Why?

inno focusing on the likilehood of nailing the scumteam rather than talking about the people themselves is weird.

Raya's reevaluation is kinda towny. Agree with 840, but I think trying to maintain all of your members, especially early on in a nightless is pretty important. So, I do think scum would've avoided bussing, or at least not planned to bus from the start. But once it looked like Wey was a sinking ship, 1 or 2 of them probably hopped on for the towncred.

[Marksman]

Never mind, I read this post from Raya again and it really creeps me out.

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

Will do

As far as your first vote on him goes it was the first vote on the wagon aside from inno's vote which doesn't really count.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you scumread him for finding players who haven't posted yet to be suspicious. You questioned him about this which means you were giving him a chance.

One of the reasons I scumread him was because his biggest suspect was someone with 1 post, yes. Questioning him about this is normal and how you scumhunt. Determining questioning as "giving your scum partner a chance" is really strange.

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

You're starting with the conclusion, and trying to find a suitable reason for it. Like, working backwards from your answer. Why is that more likely than me scumreading and wanting to dunk Wey?

Then from there you were committed to his dunk as he was the top on your list of who you wanted to dunk next.

Tell me why you couldn't have just been early distancing from Wey then later when he was essentially destined to be dunked bussing him?

What's the difference between my early and later interactions with Wey? Where is the transition from distancing to committing to bus? I don't get where you're drawing this stuff from, and concluding it's more likely a bus rather than a natural scumread.

You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

To clarify it wasn't solely page 15. It just happened to be when I was reading 15 that I felt more confident even unrelated since I was thinking about the past pages as well.

For Inno:
-I had been agreeing with most of what he said
-He was pushing for more activity page 15
-His take in 358 seems more like something scum would turn into a scumread. Not townread them for it. I strongly think that was a more town approach to that read
-359 is good too. Maybe biased since it's my slot and I know I'm town but the fact that he defended a highly voted wagon that's conftown to me when as scum he could have just let it get eliminated. Especially in this set-up. He also continues to defend my slot.

For Marksman:
-Honestly mainly tonal
-Also biased that you keep fighting for my slot to be dunked this page and arguing with Inno who is a pretty strong townread for me
-I disagree with you saying pressure votes don't work
-You also say in 366 that Inno is a bit towny but then have him as number 3 in your dunk list.

Talked about this in 791.

Almost all of the reasons seem really fake, but the only reason I'm hesitant is because why does scum!Raya enter the game scumreading Marksman over other people who had more votes?

[Marksman]

How come there's been no votecounts from you this game, Fredrick? You're usually so on the ball.