Let me address the first part first: If we can't analyze flips, then what exactly is our source to develop our reads?In post 842, Chemical Elements wrote:I'm having my doubts on how much we can analyse based on the flips. Since you came up with the suggestion, do you have any ideas?
Now the second part:
WeyounsLastClone (L-0) innocentvillager, Marksman, Hayasaka, Casey, Elements, Nono, Chemical Elements, Isis
Hayasaka (L-0) innocentvillager, hellbooks, Nono, Isis, Elements, Marksman, Chemical Elements
hellbooks (L-0) Hiraki, Elements, Isis, Chemical Elements, innocentvillager, spicer(as Raya), Nono
Elements (L-0) Casey, Hiraki, Marksman, spicer(as Raya), innocentvillager, Nono
IV is on all dunks so far (bad), but he was first on Wey and had plenty of time to change that if he wanted to avoid that dubk (good). IMHO, the "good" outweighs the "bad" here, so I think IV is a townie who has been misplaying (or has been having bad reads), This is supported by the fact he is voting nobody (as of the post I'm responding to) which means he realized his reads have not been accurate and is reconsidering. I can fully understand a townie who had a boost from a red flip and got too confident to also lead a misdunk, then trying to be more of a team player (wasn't leading either of the last 2 misdunks) and then taking a deep breath to reevaluate.
Marksman also was early on Wey. He was late on Hayaska, not on hb and appears again on Elements. On surface he should appear even more townie to me than IV is, but I somehow find IV a bit townier and I don't even know why. Still a TR though.
Casey was on the scum dunk and only one of the 3 misdunks. I don't think I need to explain why that appears to be a town slot based on that.
Nono is another slot that appears on all dunks so far, but -unlike IV- she was late to the party on Wey. She also hammered twice (hb & Elements) and appears to have adopted this shtick to disclaim responsibility of her votes. "I saw a hammer and I took it". Looks bad to me.
You (Chemical) I have explained why you also look bad despite not having been on Elements (which probably happened too fast for you to hop on, maybe?). Still, even if you could have been on Elements and chose not too; it happened after I had pointed out 5 players were on all first 3 dunks. (or it could've been because Elements was one of those 5 you didn't want him dunked??)
Isis also on all first 3 dunks, but not Elements. I don't know how I feel about her actually hammering Wey though. If scum bus'd Wey then it's in you, Nono & Isis.
I probably have nothing solid for Hiraki or Raya
based on VCA
, They both weren't on the first two but appear on the last two. However, taking their posts into consideration I think they are town leans. Both of them. And besides Spicer wasn't active, so couldn't have been on the early dunks anyway regardless of alignment.alone
That leaves Lavender as the odd slot that doesn't appear on ANY dunk (aside from my own slot that is) and I can't tell what she's doing/thinking given that I dunno how her scum game looks like. That's a true null here (would have been a town lean in any "normal" game).
As for my slot, I have explained why I was against being "vote-happy" like a dozen times already.
Assuming you are the next dunk: If you flip red I would probably be more aggressive towards Nono/Isis there, as it would appear you were trying to protect your team (by assuming scum didn't bus). If you somehow flip green I'd still be sus of the two, but I would have no case.
