Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[innocentvillager]

god I wish I rolled scum with Leader this game

[Isis]

who did you roll scum with instead?

[innocentvillager]

Casey and Nono

[Isis]

Can you compliment nono in the PT cause I'm fooled

[innocentvillager]

way ahead of you sister

[Nono]

solved~

Spoiler:

1) why it ain’t me

first (real) clone vote,,

Fun started without me!

vote: innocentvillager

I guess voting for everyone gets things going, but as long as it includes me it can't be a correct list

scum

I didn't see the extra pages. O.o

town

snip

town

VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
UNVOTE: hellbooks

second (real) clone vote,,

oops
VOTE: villager
same marksman, VOTE: clone

let me hammer please
kbai

“why did you vote, nono?”? agreed with marksie first post was scummy,, fake confidence on my part, and what did clone do?

NoNo, can you post a bit more coherent thoughts behind your votes?

Vote: NoNo

omgus LOL! think about me as town, for a moment, just a moment, it’s not hard,, that’s scumclaim. scum come after me cause I’m ez delicious bait,, been trying to get scum on my wagon for the whole game (thank me later)

NEVER, and I repeat NEVER, was off clone’s back after that

ahahahaha "NoNo",, caught scum, deadsheep me
trust you, marksie

v/la 18 hours

kbai

villager/clone can be a thing be on first glance, need more time
marksie, smarter than he looks, but not smart enough kek
green, maybe

y'all wanna kill me? kk I wanna hammer.
selfish? idk. more like petty, almost never get to hammer
logic is king, y'all can fight without me

VOTE: Vote: Hammer Wolf Clone dying on this tree
gn everyone

Do I have to spell it out?
*sigh*
VOTE: clone

p-edit: eh.

vote was 5th cause I reset

I think it seems a bit unfair if we all confirm vt

I know this is going to be look like fluff (or someone is going to call it forced..), but ANYWAY; I want to know what you meant here (if it was a joke, just say so).

P-edit: Oh. OK. I'll check that one in a bit.

didn’t see green pm, that’s scummy
UNVOTE:
VOTE: almost
VOTE: clone

so what does that say? this = SO BAD

Nono is another slot that appears on all dunks so far, but -unlike IV- she was late to the party on Wey. She also hammered twice (hb & Elements) and appears to have adopted this shtick to disclaim responsibility of her votes. "I saw a hammer and I took it". Looks bad to me.

Btw, I checked back and it looked like Wey was going down anyway. It probably would have been risky for Nono not to hop on it. I mean, she could have waited for the hammer (as her chosen troll) but it wouldn't have earned her much Towncred. Worthy of note that she put him @D-2 and CE put him @D-1 , but CE appears as the first voter on me, Lav and Raya now, so those votes were static for a long time despite having had multiple flips since then. That's why I want answers from him to my questions

coming after me? That’s fine, nature of the game, I’m having fun, but misinformation is SO ANNOYING!!!!!!!

“Your hammer is so bad!!” no it’s not,, they were gonna die anyway, none of them were trd, I wanted to hammer since FOREVER
point me one time my hammer was bad, nah y’all can’t do that

least clone was honest about it xD like clone tbh

Leaning scum
Nono - Still find his posts non-coherent, and then goes V/LA

2) why red pm guy is red
this post

I think it seems a bit unfair if we all confirm vt

I know this is going to be look like fluff (or someone is going to call it forced..), but ANYWAY; I want to know what you meant here (if it was a joke, just say so).

P-edit: Oh. OK. I'll check that one in a bit.

first post = joke,, what joke? green pm joke, “it doesn’t seem fair we can all confirm vt”?

that guy got it

I think it seems a bit unfair if we all confirm vt

could be bait but I TR this

this guy didn’t
first reaction = pure reaction and he slipped RED!!! wasn’t “seen the red pm,” was “DIDN’T see the GREEN pm”

3) why wolf is open wolf

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

Will do

As far as your first vote on him goes it was the first vote on the wagon aside from inno's vote which doesn't really count.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you scumread him for finding players who haven't posted yet to be suspicious. You questioned him about this which means you were giving him a chance.

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

Then from there you were committed to his dunk as he was the top on your list of who you wanted to dunk next.

Tell me why you couldn't have just been early distancing from Wey then later when he was essentially destined to be dunked bussing him?

You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

To clarify it wasn't solely page 15. It just happened to be when I was reading 15 that I felt more confident even unrelated since I was thinking about the past pages as well.

For Inno:
-I had been agreeing with most of what he said
-He was pushing for more activity page 15
-His take in 358 seems more like something scum would turn into a scumread. Not townread them for it. I strongly think that was a more town approach to that read
-359 is good too. Maybe biased since it's my slot and I know I'm town but the fact that he defended a highly voted wagon that's conftown to me when as scum he could have just let it get eliminated. Especially in this set-up. He also continues to defend my slot.

For Marksman:
-Honestly mainly tonal
-Also biased that you keep fighting for my slot to be dunked this page and arguing with Inno who is a pretty strong townread for me
-I disagree with you saying pressure votes don't work
-You also say in 366 that Inno is a bit towny but then have him as number 3 in your dunk list.

BAD,, first paragraph recap, second (part one) “tr because he trd me” is SO WEIRD, when the reasons were SO WEIRD, y’all seeing it??? marksie read is ????

I wanna say Nono is scum and the next best flip but at the same time their acting too openly scummy on my opinion. Rushing dunks and begging for a hammer etc

not even scummy, just weird maybe, but scum wanna push because they can't resist xD

4) why evilvillager is evil

VOTE: hellbooks
VOTE: Marksman
VOTE: Nono
VOTE: Chemical Elements
VOTE: innocentvillager
VOTE: spicer1209
VOTE: Elements
VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
VOTE: Casey
VOTE: Isis
VOTE: Hayasaka
VOTE: ileileile
VOTE: Lavender
VOTE: Hiraki
I'm pretty sure I'm voting for all 4 scum

scum.

like what scum comes in late and goes "HURR DURR I'M LATE WHO SHOULD I WAGON GUYS" and just ghosts the game without anything else

spice read = bad,, inactivity is SO easy for scum, just don't wanna integrate into the game
tmi? maybe. more weird, weird enough for svs (and wolf trs him for it??)

"pro-town" is so easy as as scum, it's scum 101!! (so many though, not reinforced, say nothing!!)

i have no idea how we're going to win this game honestly if we still haven't dunked someone...

We need to dunk like... 10-12 people probably to reasonably win

We don't need to be worried about chain dunking unless it's close to lylo and we have two wagons at L-1 because twilight freezes until modflip and we will obviously dunk anyone who is hammering right after the flip because that is scum motivated

I'll just say (so I can come back to this theory later ifneedbe) if I was scum leader I would organize it such that some of us are lurky and 1-2 are really active and try to be townread. It's a good hedge because if the town swings one way or the other (towards going after high activity posters vs. low activity posters) scum is still likely to win

It's nice for coasters to get by the first few elims, then have some big townread figure that infiltrates to the end

Basically if we just have 2 innocent children and then we launch in some random order I feel like town wins a vast majority of the time. If scum infiltrates the innocent children or can manipulate the elim order to hit the wincon beforehand they win

i did some math for fun because I was curious. If we use the strategy above, we win about 86.6% assuming the elim order is random and the ICs are both town. Assuming scum has some influence in the elim order, we could model that by assuming they get two MEs for free so in that case we win 78.5% of the time. If scum is in the ICs we win 0% obviously. So a pessimistic estimate of our winrate is P(we choose two town ICs) * 78.5%. If we were to pick the ICs completely randomly we would have a 50-50 shot (10/14*9/13=49.5%), so under the random elim order we're 42.8% to win and under the not-so-random elim order we'd be 38.8% to win. Which actually feels not bad.

I'm not saying we should use this strategy because obviously people will object, adverse selection, etc. But it's a fun baseline to know

misdunking all the time, genuine? naw

can we dunk hayasaka hehhee

I don’t hate an Elements dunk but I’d rather hellbooks

I don’t understand why Casey is hard defending this slot, I see nothing worthy of hard defending and a brief iso of Casey I didn’t see a great towncase for this slot

I don’t hate an Elements dunk after this

Just to clarify we’re in twilight and this time gets added back right

I really don’t find the hellbooks slot towny sorry all and the arguments have been meh

Consistency? One game scum meta? zzzzzzz

but okay I snap vote elements if this flips green

If red flip.... probably still vote elements lol but I’ll think about it a bit more

weird "jokey" tone, but that's just imo w/e, w/e

5) the only thing that matters

Glad to see almost everyone posted thoughts. I wish I could be as coherent as some of you with your thoughts and analyses, my mind goes all places reading the different interactions and suspicions. But I'll give it a stab anyway:

Thinking town

Marksman

- lot of content, and while that's not necessarily townie, I think he posts valid thoughts (although sometimes making mountains out of molehills, but that might be just my opinion ) and keep things going

Casey

- Starting the game late, but brings the heat and some decent posts with interesting analysis

Chemical Elements

- not to rehash the whole discussion again, but the initial posts and help with vote counts gave me a town-vibe. But slipping more towards neutral, not sure if post 101 was serious or trying to get more votes on innocent

Either way

Hellbooks

- initially thought she was trying to create chaos and leaning scum, but I guess that's her way of posting. and it's funny, which always helps

Hiraki

- A bit hit and miss, sometimes slightly opportunistic, but happy he understood my post that caused the stir.

Isis

- started to post a lot, then a bit less (or it could have been night, not sure where she's from). Felt maybe a bit too serious from the start.

Lavender

- Could be a real confused townie, but could be an excuse as well. Not sure as scum why you'd post stuff like that, but as town you could easily read the thread and see them both posting. If it was just uncertainty who to vote for I could understand, but ChemElement/Elements has been addressed even before.

Hayasaka

- Maybe I don't trust her as she's voting for me, but not sure I follow her reasoning in initial posts 131 and 132

Elements

- Opportunistic vote on Casey, don't get much from the other posts made

Leaning scum

Nono

- Still find his posts non-coherent, and then goes V/LA

spicer1209

- with lack of posts, need something more than that initial post. Want to read his thoughts before putting actual vote in though.

I really don't know about innocentvillager anymore. Voting for just everyone still doesn't sit well with me, but actually the way he interacted after that and updated his suspicions seemed quite town.

Unvote: innocentvillager

waiting for content:

Vote: ileileile

Hope I didn't miss anyone

first tier,, they're obvtown, we know it, clone knew it,, he doesn't wanna push there, if it's chem, he has me fooled
second tier,, scum hiding place? but he wants to mix them up (he's not that simple, clone), they're not all here
low tier,, wants me dead, was voting me too LOL,, spicer!scum? possible, he didn't vote, could want to hide buddy here, or just town

villager out of all lists, rvs vote, then "unvote for being towny"
but "towny" doesn't erase his concerns?? massvote was scum, and clone knew it too
ile out of all lists too, and too easy to unvote later, too easy

[Nono]

Can you compliment nono in the PT cause I'm fooled

cute))

[Hiraki]

let me just quote people and then say scum and people will just vote with me!! it looks a little long but heck, no one is reading me anyway!

[Isis]

I think it was pretty good analysis. I don't really follow the points about Raya, exactly, I'm not sure reciprocating townreads is scum indicative, since you kind of improve your odds of winning if you reciprocate townreads even as town (like as town, misdunking all the players who townread you will always lose you the game when those players misdunk you in XLo, misdunking all the players that scumread you will give you a decent shot at winning XLo.)

I vibe a lot of the other stuff even if Nono writes weird.

[Hiraki]

first reaction = pure reaction and he slipped RED!!! wasn’t “seen the red pm,” was “DIDN’T see the GREEN pm”

go ahead and make sense of this on Isis, I'll wait - i have much more to pile on if you wanna start calling this good analysis

and believe me, i know how to write good shitposts. these are not. plus the cheeky spoiler text as if that was to unveil his ~true power level~

[Isis]

I believe he's saying that cognitively it's more natural to describe someone as having viewed the red PM instead of the green PM instead of just stating that the green PM wasn't viewed at all. The idea being that someone with perfect knowledge would state it differently. Tells like that are unreliable but I don't think they're worthless and I try to use them from time to time, they can be somewhat better than rand. This isn't my favorite argument ever but it's good faith.

[innocentvillager]

yeah nono is my new innocent child

I will (probably) quit mafia for a year if this guy flips red

[innocentvillager]

yeah but the chance doesn’t really go up that much in mafia. They’ve done stats on this stuff, how almost everyone overestimates their ability to scumhunt

this doesn’t apply to me, just everyone else!

[Hiraki]

get ready to quit my guy

[Lavender]

Sorry sorry, I didn't expect for me to be gone that long, some IRL things that I don't want to think about.
I'm going to go ahead and re-read this game and see what I come up with.
So I can actually be of some use! ٩(•̤̀ᵕ•̤́๑)

[Isis]

UNVOTE: Lavender

[Chemical Elements]

...

UNVOTE: Nono
UNVOTE: innocentvillager
UNVOTE: Isis
VOTE: Lavender
VOTE: Hiraki

are you really just unvoting everyone on the Wey wagon?

Yes. My hypothesis is that no scum are on the wagon. To test the hypothesis, we could dunk two people that are not on the wagon. If both of them flips town, the hypothesis is wrong. If one of them flip scum, we continue to dunk more people who were off the wagon, I guess. If the two we dunk turn out to be town, I don't know what to do.

Why don't you think scum was on the wagon?

Because I wasn't able to think of a situation in which scum would have placed their vote on a partner in a game like this.

[Chemical Elements]

How come there's been no votecounts from you this game, Fredrick? You're usually so on the ball.

My posting of votecounts was way too extravagant and too time-consuming and had made me myopic when attempting to solve this game. Also, I don't see any use for them.

[Casey]

let me just quote people and then say scum and people will just vote with me!! it looks a little long but heck, no one is reading me anyway!

You sound very upset that you can't push a Nono mislynch now.

[Hiraki]

No, I sound very upset because no one is reading his post

[Isis]

I read Nono's post and it shows that dunking Nono is likely to produce green text

[Hiraki]

So you believe the part that he is too scummy to be scum?

[Casey]

@Hiraki: You also never answered this:

I can agree with Lavender.

Vote: Lavender

What changed?

[Lavender]

Just going to write what I think as I hop through pages and read.

Marksman-Seems okay, probably my bias on them asking me questions. Because I do that...

Nono-I have no clue, really I don't. Others think they're town so, that's it.

Chemical Elements-Liked him in the beginning mainly because of the VC posts, but I don't like the fact that he thinks all people on the Wey-Wagon were town, it doesn't make sense as I said before. Also, they have a lot of quote blobs, just a lot. They dunked Hayasaka who was on Wey's wagon, with no context as to why, perhaps they just agreed with Marksman "We need a dunk"?

(ლ(¯ロ¯"ლ)) innocentvillager-Still don't particularity like them, but now it's mainly because I'm confused while reading their posts, they keep calling people Supreme Leader and makes it hard to see who they're referring to.
Blah I can't follow their train of thought. Actually, I HATE how they refer to people as Leader, I can't tell who's who. I hope I don't do this.
I dislike their hellbrooks vote after Hayasaka flip. As well as their reaction to said flip.

Raya36-Uhm, honestly everytime I read their posts my mind goes blank, they interact a lot, that's ok yeah. I tried to read their thoughts, got stuck on them thinking Hiraki was town for the same reasons I thought they were evil.

Casey-Mainly seems all right, actually really fine. If their scum I'll be shocked, they made pretty pictures too! Generally they seem to be proactively helping town.

Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)

Almost50-I'm associating the way their acting to a previous game they replaced-in as a town, so this makes me think they're town as well. But I've realized that I always think A50 is town lately. Which is uh, not good when they're actually evil.

Hiraki-I really think this slot is a bad? Weird? Their voting doesn't make sense, it seems like they're just trying to get by. They defended Wey, I mean I guess this isn't inherently bad, but I don't think it's good.


I noticed Casey actually asked me a question, "Have you made any dishonest mistakes so far?"
Not that I know of no.
Er I'm guessing dishonest mistakes mean non-genuine ones.
All of my mistakes are just really really stupid mistakes. QwQ

Who the heck is Fredrick????????????????????????????????

I just hope I'm not completely and utterly wrong on everything. (＠_＠)
If you need me to expand on a read just ask. ~(>_<~)

PE: Ack, more posts (｡T ω T｡)

[Hiraki]

You're asking me what changed between 300 posts?

P-edit: yeah lav is town lmao